telsor
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So, you're still unable to answer...
Tasmania AFL Say No To Tassie Team
- Thread starter rdhopkins2
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So, you're still unable to answer...
As a North supporter, a Tasmanian and a big supporter of a Tasmanian AFL club, I can't agree with you here. There's very little I want more than to see a Tasmanian club to come into the AFL, but not at the expense of North Melbourne or any other Vic club.
Suppose that a Tasmanian club picks up 20,000 paying members in its first year or so. It's not unreasonable to expect. There are 25,000 current members in the state. That's all good that new member have been gained, but the AFL would have just lost 40,000 North members to do so. I dunno, maybe I don't make sense but that's how I think about it.
Also, nice little insult about the '6' North supporters. Port has only 13,000 more members than North and it gets to share a state with only one other club. North shares a city with 10 other clubs and a state with 11. I wouldn't be too chirpy.
Isnt that part of the problem?
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North are surviving, and we're a hell of a lot better financially than we were 10 years ago.
I didnt say they weren't. Other clubs aren't doing so well. Its tough in a market of 10 clubs. They cant all benefit equally, infact they clearly dont.
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they dont have to. Not every club can be a big club. Not every club is supposed to be.
telsor
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They don't need to.
Capturing even 1.5% of Victoria's growth (or about 1/6th of an 'even share') would still have the small clubs growing faster than Tasmania's entire growth, and yet you seem to think that's adequate.
Except culling clubs will lose people. Kill my club, and about 300,000 people no longer have anything to follow in the AFL. Some will swap clubs, many won't. And less matches means less broadcast revenue.
In contrast, Tasmanians already watch in (per capita) greater numbers than anywhere else and the AFL already takes more than commercially viable (through taxpayer funds).
Not adding a team doesn't lose anyone. And even Tasmanians are lost, they are on the whole significantly less wealthy, and therefore more expendable, than those in any mainland capital.
telsor
Hall of Famer
edited *quotes deleted post* - mod
a) abuse
b) Yes, it would, well, actually it's 72.5 times, not 60, but whatever...Let's put that down to people in Vic having more options.
Vic's growth in 2014 101.5K
Tas's growth in 2014 1.4K
ABS figures.
a) abuse
b) Yes, it would, well, actually it's 72.5 times, not 60, but whatever...Let's put that down to people in Vic having more options.
Vic's growth in 2014 101.5K
Tas's growth in 2014 1.4K
ABS figures.
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40,000 members which includes significant year on year churn. 300,000 supporters if memory serves - and one trusts the surveys, which admittedly can be rather dodgy.
Victoria continuing to lead the country with the highest rate of population growth and Tasmania the lowest. If you dig into the report, it shows Victoria also gaining the most people through net interstate immigration by a significant margin (9800) whilst Tasmania lost 1100.
Victoria - 1.7
NSW - 1.4
WA - 1.4
Qld - 1.3
SA - 0.8
Tas - 0.3
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument
Victoria - 1.7
NSW - 1.4
WA - 1.4
Qld - 1.3
SA - 0.8
Tas - 0.3
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument
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telsor
Hall of Famer
Or to put it another way, in the life of the new TV contract, Victoria's growth will be significantly more than the entire population of Tasmania.
Yes & they'll all be footy supporters & support all clubs evenly & the growth will continue & melbourne will soon be 9million people all enjoying football.
Things do change. Nothing is forever. Not everything is as it seems. The growth of the NT has crashed. Is that just temporary? WA too has come off somewhat, is that temporary too? Stats are a snapshot & trying to extrapolate the next 30 years or so is a bit fraught.
telsor
Hall of Famer
Just like your assumption that 100% of Tasmanians will switch their lifelong support for (mostly) Vic sides to a new Tas team?
Thing is, if even 1 in 7 of the 'new Victorians' do support he game, that's still about 10 times as much as Tas grows by.
True, things change, but the course of Tasmanian 'growth' has been pretty consistent for a very long time, and even the Tas government report (you now those things are unimpeachably correct when they said a Tas team could be viable) has your population shrinking before too long.
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As they say about share investing: the trend is our friend...
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I was a Blues supporter & financial member (box & all @ Princes Park) in the VFL days, early 80s.
See the Eagles membership most of whom would have had a VFL team, no different to the Crows. Why will Tas be different ?
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