Opinion Are we built for finals?

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Jun 21, 2016
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Something that has been playing on my mind a bit lately was a comment made by our old club stalwart and now Weagles coach, Adam Simpson, before we played them post bye.

"I think the one thing we know about North is the brand they play is built for finals, and we've had some really good battles with them of late.

"But it's a combative finals-type of football that they play."

If anyone knows us it's Simmo.

We have produced a couple of rousing finals victories in the last few years.

Are we?
 
A few injuries less would help !
To win finals you need good inside mids and good KPPs...we have that. Just need a bit confidence back in a couple of players.

no side will like playing us
 
Yes. Scott has talked about it many times. Apparently it has alot to do with who we draft (tough inside mids)
 

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Yes. Scott has talked about it many times. Apparently it has alot to do with who we draft (tough inside mids)
I feel like we have come to life in the finals the last two seasons and assuming we make it this year there's no reason we won't do the same. Our LTI's should have dwindled by then and with the week off before finals start now we can hit the ground running.
 
The key the previous 2 seasons was playing the elimination final at the G, this time we will be off to Perth or Sydney most likely and more of a chance of suffering the same fate as 2012.

Last year we knew we had Richmond in our back pocket.
 
On current evidence: 2 finals, yes; 3 finals, no.
No one has won 3 from 5-8 in the current set up.

Only 4 sides have won 2 from that position and twice it was us.

We need to play every game from this point as win at all costs.
 
The key the previous 2 seasons was playing the elimination final at the G, this time we will be off to Perth or Sydney most likely and more of a chance of suffering the same fate as 2012.

Last year we knew we had Richmond in our back pocket.
Yeah, the odds are stacked against us and we're probably gonna be doing it the hard way again. Best chance I reckon interstate would be GWS for us. Haven't beaten us and their first final/no experience. Maybe a repeat of last year playing the same team as Round 23. Or maybe jag Geelong or the Bulldogs in the first two weeks. After that we'd be off to Perth, Sydney or Adelaide most likely or just as bad - playing Hawthorn.
 
No one has won 3 from 5-8 in the current set up.

Only 4 sides have won 2 from that position and twice it was us.

We need to play every game from this point as win at all costs.
The reason that teams 5-8 don't win a lot of finals isn't because of the finals system, its because those teams aren't good enough, hence why they don't end up in the top 4.

No team has ever won the GF with less than 3 wins, under the current set up. If you want to win the lot you have to be able to win 3 finals.

This is why it's pointless aiming for 12 wins and making the finals. We need to finish top 4 because this means we are one of the best teams in the comp. Anything less is another failed season.
 
The key the previous 2 seasons was playing the elimination final at the G, this time we will be off to Perth or Sydney most likely and more of a chance of suffering the same fate as 2012.

Last year we knew we had Richmond in our back pocket.

I think we can realistically aim for 5th/6th, and I don't think West Coast will get a home final.
 
The reason that teams 5-8 don't win a lot of finals isn't because of the finals system, its because those teams aren't good enough, hence why they don't end up in the top 4.

No team has ever won the GF with less than 3 wins, under the current set up. If you want to win the lot you have to be able to win 3 finals.

This is why it's pointless aiming for 12 wins and making the finals. We need to finish top 4 because this means we are one of the best teams in the comp. Anything less is another failed season.
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I just did a ladder predictor and assuming we win all but 1 game on the way home, we finished 7th. Playing the dogs week one of the finals.

We then played the loser of Geelong Vs GWS. So week 2 is GWS Vs North.

The winner plays Hawthorn in the prelim.

That's the best we can hope for and is actually pretty good. Sure no one wants to play Hawthorn but its better to get them in a prelim than Granny based on past results. It also means avoiding West Coast, Adelaide and Sydney interstate.
 
I just did a ladder predictor and assuming we win all but 1 game on the way home, we finished 7th. Playing the dogs week one of the finals.

We then played the loser of Geelong Vs GWS. So week 2 is GWS Vs North.

The winner plays Hawthorn in the prelim.

That's the best we can hope for and is actually pretty good. Sure no one wants to play Hawthorn but its better to get them in a prelim than Granny based on past results. It also means avoiding West Coast, Adelaide and Sydney interstate.
Yeah, that would be the best we could hope for.

I think what Simmo was saying was that the type of players we have and our game style hold us in good stead come finals time. We certainly have some experienced players and now have some good recent finals experience too.
 
At the end of the day, it will come down to the fitness of our squad. On what we have seen this year, our side is good enough, but our luck certainly hasn't been and the team management and coaching has struggled to deal with it. The big issue is who of Wood, Higgins, Waite, Jacobs, Wright, Garner, and McDonald can be match fit (enough) to strengthen the side. The other one is whether Goldy can recover his athleticism or if this will be his level for the rest of the season, prior to surgery. Still lots of uncertainty but also possibilities to go up a level by finals time.

The other unpredictable is the effect of the bye prior to the finals. I reckon the AFL will shaft this idea after this year. It will mostly do a favour to the lower teams, watering down the 'week off' advantage of the double chance and making a run of 4 finals slightly more manageable than it usually is. It would be funny that after bringing in the rule because of our Richmond game last year, that we could potentially be the team that benefits most from it this year (resting our wounded, returning players to build match fitness, and freshening up for 4-week finals tilt).

One can dream.
 
Lose one or likely two more and we still finish 7th.

That means on my predictor;

Bulldogs
Cats
Hawks
Swans

Confident we could knock the first two off, but Hawks after a week off in the Prelim will be very tough.

That is what is so frustrating with us continually underperforming in the H&A, its just too difficult to win a flag from the bottom half of the 8.
 
It is in our hands, we play 3 teams above us, on our turf and the Hawks where the grand final is played. Have to first get over a saints team that is on the up.
Yeah definitely can't get ahead and look past the Saints match.

Was looking more to delve into what Simpson was referring to but the potential finals scenarios and who we'd prefer to face and when and where has been interesting.
 
Our game is certainly more suited to the high pressure of finals, However if we cant finish top 4 after the HA then there aint much point.
This. I think we are, but it ultimately means nothing if that footy isn't good enough during the H&A season to see us into the top 4.
 
I just did a ladder predictor and assuming we win all but 1 game on the way home, we finished 7th. Playing the dogs week one of the finals.

We then played the loser of Geelong Vs GWS. So week 2 is GWS Vs North.

The winner plays Hawthorn in the prelim.

That's the best we can hope for and is actually pretty good. Sure no one wants to play Hawthorn but its better to get them in a prelim than Granny based on past results. It also means avoiding West Coast, Adelaide and Sydney interstate.

I did the same thing had us winning all remaining 5 games and finishing 3rd, playing and beating Hawthorn in week 1 of the finals, Then GWS in week 3 and Geelong in the Grand Final. what did you do wrong?
 
Lot of water to go under the bridge from here still. We're outside odds now but it's well within reach with only a game and % separating 2nd-8th. A few of those teams cross each others paths so realistically while tough we can still pinch a spot by winning almost all of our last few games. There A few unknowns as well:

How will the Dogs bounce back after a couple of crippling (particularly mentally) injuries.
GWS (potential injury to Mumford) and how they run out the season

There are also plenty of games between current top 8 teams and teams that have been pushing hard or pushing for a finals spot. We need a couple of things to go right for us but if we keep winning it is still achievable. The make up of the 8 might help us too. We're on track to be one of 4 Vic based teams. I'd back us against any on of them if our form can steady. If Geelong / Hawthorn / WB make the top 4 it could be to our advantage if we can't scrape in.
 
I hate to be cynical but I can'f help but be a realist. History shows you must finish top 4 to have a chance. We will not be doing that this year so it will go down as a failure.
 

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