So... the season is done . The last three losses have done us - North, Richmond, Geelong, broken up by a fool's gold win over the hapless Lions. Three middle of the road teams that you simply have to beat if you're going to be top 4.
I have little doubt the club was aiming for top 4 this year. And to be honest... fair enough. Two 7th places finishes in a row makes it a reasonable goal. But it's gone pear-shaped, increasingly so over the last month.
I think even if we somehow turned it all around now and went on a run - which isn't going to happen - at best we'd be 7th or 8th again. Which isn't going to challenge for a flag. You're just making up the numbers and boosting the league coffers with an extra elimination final.
We can blame injury, we can blame ASAGA fatigue, we can blame selection, we can blame lack of a preseason, we can blame many things... reality is its a combination of all of them and more. But after the last three weeks, I don't think anybody can seriously suggest we're any hope whatsoever of making the top 4. Which means we're not any hope whatsoever of challenging for the flag.
So if we're not in the flag race, what are we gonna do?
I can completely see us paddling along, getting a few wins, a few unexpected wins, a lot of losses and eeking out an 8th - 12th place finish.
Even when we get a few injured players back, with the few weeks into take them to hit their straps, the season will be done anyway.
As a club, do we have the balls to bite the bullet and go for the longer term?
The biggest consideration is obviously the ongoing WADA garbage. At this point I don't think we have any choice but to carry on assuming there'll be no penalties. That's the only rational course - ASADA didn't have s**t and neither do WADA. We can continue here in the worlds greatest holding pattern, treading water, or attack for the future.
When you think about it, it's a no brainer. Even when this group does have this bullshit out of the way, have they shown anything to suggest they can win a flag? We've all been excited by the odd huge win they've pulled out of the box over the last couple of years, but it - still - hasn't led to any consistency. For example, we knocked off Hawthorn, and have been pretty poor since. It's like being teased a couple of times a season; and we have to be smart enough to not fall for it.
As a club are we able to be honest enough to admit that and do a bit of list massaging? We obviously don't need a wholesale rebuild, but will we be able to change direction slightly?
On the other hand, should the unthinkable happen and we lose our senior core for an extended period, again us having played the kids can only serve us better.
So I think we have to do it - use the rest of if this season to get as many games as possible into both Merretts, Ashby, Edwards, Browne, Kavanagh, Langford, Laverde, Gleeson, Dalgliesh, Hams and Fantasia. We need to know which ones can play, and get games into those who can.
The thing about it is, its a challenge for the whole club...
Can the senior players accept this and not throw the toys out of the cot?
Can the club make these harsh calls, for example on somebody like Winderlich, who was told to play on - but now finds himself in a position where the club playing him really doesn't achieve anything, and maybe deprives a kid of development?
Can Hird make these calls for the good of the club, knowing it'll hurt his results and strong relationships with the players?
Can the Board communicate this approach clearly to the members so that they understand and feel onboard the process? Then absorb the pressure that comes with poorer performance and not let it affect their judgment of Hird etc?
Can the members cop a younger team being not as competitive and not sook up and leave empty seats?
Basically, can everybody - all these parties - put the long term health of the club above their own interests for now?
It just seems like the only only logical path to take for the rest of 2015 - but are we capable?
I have little doubt the club was aiming for top 4 this year. And to be honest... fair enough. Two 7th places finishes in a row makes it a reasonable goal. But it's gone pear-shaped, increasingly so over the last month.
I think even if we somehow turned it all around now and went on a run - which isn't going to happen - at best we'd be 7th or 8th again. Which isn't going to challenge for a flag. You're just making up the numbers and boosting the league coffers with an extra elimination final.
We can blame injury, we can blame ASAGA fatigue, we can blame selection, we can blame lack of a preseason, we can blame many things... reality is its a combination of all of them and more. But after the last three weeks, I don't think anybody can seriously suggest we're any hope whatsoever of making the top 4. Which means we're not any hope whatsoever of challenging for the flag.
So if we're not in the flag race, what are we gonna do?
I can completely see us paddling along, getting a few wins, a few unexpected wins, a lot of losses and eeking out an 8th - 12th place finish.
Even when we get a few injured players back, with the few weeks into take them to hit their straps, the season will be done anyway.
As a club, do we have the balls to bite the bullet and go for the longer term?
The biggest consideration is obviously the ongoing WADA garbage. At this point I don't think we have any choice but to carry on assuming there'll be no penalties. That's the only rational course - ASADA didn't have s**t and neither do WADA. We can continue here in the worlds greatest holding pattern, treading water, or attack for the future.
When you think about it, it's a no brainer. Even when this group does have this bullshit out of the way, have they shown anything to suggest they can win a flag? We've all been excited by the odd huge win they've pulled out of the box over the last couple of years, but it - still - hasn't led to any consistency. For example, we knocked off Hawthorn, and have been pretty poor since. It's like being teased a couple of times a season; and we have to be smart enough to not fall for it.
As a club are we able to be honest enough to admit that and do a bit of list massaging? We obviously don't need a wholesale rebuild, but will we be able to change direction slightly?
On the other hand, should the unthinkable happen and we lose our senior core for an extended period, again us having played the kids can only serve us better.
So I think we have to do it - use the rest of if this season to get as many games as possible into both Merretts, Ashby, Edwards, Browne, Kavanagh, Langford, Laverde, Gleeson, Dalgliesh, Hams and Fantasia. We need to know which ones can play, and get games into those who can.
The thing about it is, its a challenge for the whole club...
Can the senior players accept this and not throw the toys out of the cot?
Can the club make these harsh calls, for example on somebody like Winderlich, who was told to play on - but now finds himself in a position where the club playing him really doesn't achieve anything, and maybe deprives a kid of development?
Can Hird make these calls for the good of the club, knowing it'll hurt his results and strong relationships with the players?
Can the Board communicate this approach clearly to the members so that they understand and feel onboard the process? Then absorb the pressure that comes with poorer performance and not let it affect their judgment of Hird etc?
Can the members cop a younger team being not as competitive and not sook up and leave empty seats?
Basically, can everybody - all these parties - put the long term health of the club above their own interests for now?
It just seems like the only only logical path to take for the rest of 2015 - but are we capable?
