Strategy Are we seeing a general change of tack towards proven players over picks ?

Furn2

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Seems like it this trade period, teams more prepared to go after mature players and prepared to give up picks to do so.

WC didn't put up a fight to get Kelly despite him being uncontracted.

Saints and Blues who have been hardline draft/play the kids for quite a while are going after players on mass despite not having shown they are yet contenders, this is not topping up but a change of strategy.

The Swans are going after Daniher despite having their worse season in ages when we would have previously seen a rebuild and the Dons aren't letting him go.


GC and GWS are getting their usual cream of the draft but im not sure thats by choice.

The Crows seem to be the only teams intentionally doing a clean out for picks, which might actually work if the pendulum has swung towards players.
 

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Dr Awkward

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Clubs are realising more the speculative nature of draft picks. A lot of no.1 picks have been busts and a lot of rookies or late picks are becoming guns so the perspective is changing.

You don't need to be a contender to bring in proven players. Richmond brought in fringe types like Houli, Grigg, Maric back when were were still middle of the ladder and it worked out.
 

rogiebear93

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If you look at the NBA, they have a far more broad talent base to draw from and they value picks far less than we do in the AFL. Granted that they know more about what is available in any given draft than we do, it's still a more mature position.

That being said, the value of a draft pick is variable depending on the team and on the year. There are certain drafts where pick 1 or 2 might be worth very little by comparison to other drafts. People don't really acknowledge that when they talk about a players worth in terms of draft picks.

We all know that the top 3 in 2001 were elite, hindsight has proved that. High end picks in that draft would have been worth a lot more than say, 2002 or 2008, where the high end selections weren't that good.

So in saying "X player is worth Pick 1!" you have to acknowledge that maybe that'd change if the Pick 1 is Luke Hodge, versus if the Pick 1 is Jack Watts.

Bringing the NBA Draft back into the conversation - there was no way any team with Pick 1 in 2003, 2016 or 2019 was going to trade that pick, but in a year like 2014 that trade happened.
 

Chaisa

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I think what is happening now was quite common historically, but sides went a bit too far (think people like Hay and Lonie going for first rounders) and Hawthorn reeped the benefits (mainly). So I think we're moving back to a more realistic balance.
 

Freomaniac

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well depends on the view.

If your team is desperate for a key forward, are you willing to trade a pick 5 or 10 for a proven performer?
 

Marcel Proust

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When Clarkson wins a flag using free agents mostly and no top draft picks the whole game will shift.

Draft picks as so overrated it’s a joke.
There is no more prime Roughead, Hodge, Mitchell and there is a lot of talent in the 30 and over category at hawthorn

yet to be seen in clarkson will be successful in his topping up post premierships era.
 

Marcel Proust

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Seems like it this trade period, teams more prepared to go after mature players and prepared to give up picks to do so.

WC didn't put up a fight to get Kelly despite him being uncontracted.

Saints and Blues who have been hardline draft/play the kids for quite a while are going after players on mass despite not having shown they are yet contenders, this is not topping up but a change of strategy.

The Swans are going after Daniher despite having their worse season in ages when we would have previously seen a rebuild and the Dons aren't letting him go.


GC and GWS are getting their usual cream of the draft but im not sure thats by choice.

The Crows seem to be the only teams intentionally doing a clean out for picks, which might actually work if the pendulum has swung towards players.
Geelong 'only' got pick 14 (not even top 10 in a weak draft...) and a bevy of middling picks. I think its a safe bet wce will be top 4 next season so the future first isnt that valuable in yet another highly compromised draft pool.

WCE arguably didnt give away that much and bested teams with high draft picks in the kelly chase
 

00Stinger

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Clubs are realising more the speculative nature of draft picks. A lot of no.1 picks have been busts and a lot of rookies or late picks are becoming guns so the perspective is changing.

You don't need to be a contender to bring in proven players. Richmond brought in fringe types like Houli, Grigg, Maric back when were were still middle of the ladder and it worked out.
tbf your star players Martin, Cotchin, Reiwoldt & Rance were all top draft picks. Add in Prestia & Lych (to be fair weren't drafted by you) were first round picks too

There is no guarantee with drafting but the chance of you netting a star with a high draft pick is a lot higher than with later picks
 

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Marcel Proust

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tbf your star players Martin, Cotchin, Reiwoldt & Rance were all top draft picks. Add in Prestia & Lych (to be fair weren't drafted by you) were first round picks too

There is no guarantee with drafting but the chance of you netting a star with a high draft pick is a lot higher than with later picks
and Deledio carried the team for about 200 games

pick 1
 

DanA

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When Clarkson wins a flag using free agents mostly and no top draft picks the whole game will shift.

Draft picks as so overrated it’s a joke.
No top draft picks? Between 2001-2006 (6 years) they took 11 x 1st round picks and 8 x 2nd round picks. Their drafts including picks 1, 2, 3, 5 and & 7 and among the 19 picks in 6 years they landed Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead, Buddy, Lewis & Birchall which was the backbone of their Premierships (Buddy only for 2). They topped up brilliantly but only after building first through the draft with some ridiculously good draft picks that they used well.
 

The Slitherin' Snake

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No top draft picks? Between 2001-2006 (6 years) they took 11 x 1st round picks and 8 x 2nd round picks. Their drafts including picks 1, 2, 3, 5 and & 7 and it landed them Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead, Buddy, Lewis & Birchall which was the backbone of their Premierships (Buddy only for 2). They topped up brilliantly but only after building first through the draft with some ridiculously good draft picks that they used well.
Yeah.... you need to re-read what you replied to
 

telsor

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tbf your star players Martin, Cotchin, Reiwoldt & Rance were all top draft picks. Add in Prestia & Lych (to be fair weren't drafted by you) were first round picks too

There is no guarantee with drafting but the chance of you netting a star with a high draft pick is a lot higher than with later picks
Those 'star players' missed much of the year, and it was the others that got us through.

The premiership side had 6 rookie picks in it (and 2 PSD).


BTW. Rance was a 2nd rounder (2007 pick 18, start of second round priority pick)
 

00Stinger

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Those 'star players' missed much of the year, and it was the others that got us through.

The premiership side had 6 rookie picks in it (and 2 PSD).


BTW. Rance was a 2nd rounder (2007 pick 18, start of second round priority pick)
and the whips got cracking most of those players were the difference.

Tbf 18 is a pretty high pick
 

Hawker55

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No top draft picks? Between 2001-2006 (6 years) they took 11 x 1st round picks and 8 x 2nd round picks. Their drafts including picks 1, 2, 3, 5 and & 7 and among the 19 picks in 6 years they landed Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead, Buddy, Lewis & Birchall which was the backbone of their Premierships (Buddy only for 2). They topped up brilliantly but only after building first through the draft with some ridiculously good draft picks that they used well.
Mitchell was pick 32 (from memory). I'm happy to wear the others as part of your point but if you're going to say using a top 40 pick counts as a 'high' draft pick I'll take issue.
 

telsor

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and the whips got cracking most of those players were the difference.

Tbf 18 is a pretty high pick
Those 'stars' are good players, but my point was that they're not the be all and end all of the team.

They were probably the difference between being at the lower end of the 8 and a flag...and sure that's a big thing, but being in the finals is still better than most of the teams in the comp, which isn't bad.

As for Rance, yeah, 18 is reasonably high, but it wasn't a first (which is what you said)
 

00Stinger

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Those 'stars' are good players, but my point was that they're not the be all and end all of the team.

They were probably the difference between being at the lower end of the 8 and a flag...and sure that's a big thing, but being in the finals is still better than most of the teams in the comp, which isn't bad.
I kind of agree with your point but with out the players I mentioned (Martin, Cotchin, Reiwoldt, Rance, Prestia & Lynch) you wouldn't be a top 8 team
 

telsor

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I kind of agree with your point but with out the players I mentioned (Martin, Cotchin, Reiwoldt, Rance, Prestia & Lynch) you wouldn't be a top 8 team
I was referring to the first 4, and without 3 of them for much of the first half of the year (and a LOT of other players, including Nankervis) we were 9th at the bye.

If the players you mentioned are 10/10 (and they're probably not THAT good), the VFL players who replaced them were 7s, not 2s and 3s....it was a drop, but not a fall off a cliff.
 

00Stinger

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I was referring to the first 4, and without 3 of them for much of the first half of the year (and a LOT of other players, including Nankervis) we were 9th at the bye.

If the players you mentioned are 10/10 (and they're probably not THAT good), the VFL players who replaced them were 7s, not 2s and 3s....it was a drop, but not a fall off a cliff.
Being able to cover Rance was the most impressive one imo. I knew Grimes and Vlaustin were good I just didn't realize that they were that good

With the mentioned players especially Martin, Reiwoldt & Lynch is they are game breakers, there aren't many of them in the league let alone having 3 in the one team
 

DanA

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Mitchell was pick 32 (from memory). I'm happy to wear the others as part of your point but if you're going to say using a top 40 pick counts as a 'high' draft pick I'll take issue.


With respect to Mitchell. It was a great mid-range pick, you also got Cambell Brown in that draft. That was the start of some really good drafting for the Hawks, some of it with good picks but also some good late picks like Mitchell, Sewell, Young etc. All I'm saying is the Hawks like all premiership teams built a premiership side primarily through drafting. While they traded exceptionally well I don't think you can say Clarko has or will any time soon win a premiership through trading. Premierships almost by default, have to have a foundation of good drafting and player development.
 

Richo83

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IMO it's because drafting is becoming a more exact science, so clubs value picks after say pick 10-15 less than they used to, especially in compromised and weak drafts. It's rarer to find say a Dane Swan as late as he got picked up. You have to go back to 2013 to find a genuine star picked up outside of the top 10-15.

Like the draft calculator tells me that pick 5 is equal to picks 19 and 20. But, I doubt it? With pick five there's a good chance you'll find a superstar, whereas with pickes 19 and 20 you're more likely to find two nice pieces which provide depth to your team. And with other options available, like the way Richmond got Sydney Stack, teams are finding more ways to skin a cat.

I kinda wish we had a clean simple draft without father sons, academy picks, NGAs etc. But we don't, and often teams are able to bundle up later picks to snatch a player early, meaning these picks around the 10s end up not being as valuable as the rest. This is not a good era if you're constantly picking around picks 10-15.

If you're drafting in the first round, you either want to be a) have a really early pick, we're talking 1-5, a) have some gun academy kid/father-son/whatever you've managed to have dibs on, or c) be a team with a serious chance of winning the flag, in which you accept your fate and move on.

I also think the game is the most physical its ever been, and the most complicated its ever been, meaning being skinny 18 year olds with limited exposure to complex AFL tactics are valued less than in the past few years. The game is also more demanding than ever, the ultimate midfielder is fast, tall, a good kick, agile, makes good decisions, good at contested football, knows how to play defence and also pushes forward to take a contested mark and kick a few goals. If you're a midfielder and you only have maybe half of those traits, it's likely you're going to be bundled off to the flanks.
 

DanA

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IMO it's because drafting is becoming a more exact science, so clubs value picks after say pick 10-15 less than they used to, especially in compromised and weak drafts. It's rarer to find say a Dane Swan as late as he got picked up. You have to go back to 2013 to find a genuine star picked up outside of the top 10-15.

Like the draft calculator tells me that pick 5 is equal to picks 19 and 20. But, I doubt it? With pick five there's a good chance you'll find a superstar, whereas with pickes 19 and 20 you're more likely to find two nice pieces which provide depth to your team. And with other options available, like the way Richmond got Sydney Stack, teams are finding more ways to skin a cat.

I kinda wish we had a clean simple draft without father sons, academy picks, NGAs etc. But we don't, and often teams are able to bundle up later picks to snatch a player early, meaning these picks around the 10s end up not being as valuable as the rest. This is not a good era if you're constantly picking around picks 10-15.

If you're drafting in the first round, you either want to be a) have a really early pick, we're talking 1-5, a) have some gun academy kid/father-son/whatever you've managed to have dibs on, or c) be a team with a serious chance of winning the flag, in which you accept your fate and move on.

I also think the game is the most physical its ever been, and the most complicated its ever been, meaning being skinny 18 year olds with limited exposure to complex AFL tactics are valued less than in the past few years. The game is also more demanding than ever, the ultimate midfielder is fast, tall, a good kick, agile, makes good decisions, good at contested football, knows how to play defence and also pushes forward to take a contested mark and kick a few goals. If you're a midfielder and you only have maybe half of those traits, it's likely you're going to be bundled off to the flanks.
How do you figure? The All Australian team is full of late picks that are stars. Neale, Kelly, Stewart, Harris Andrews, Walters, Charlie Cameron, Jeremy McGovern and Elliot Yeo were all pretty late. Fyfe was pick 20 too.
 

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