August Daily Punt - Happy Birthday

[FallingLiefs]

The Slipper was rightly panned in the week after the race - don't think much has changed myself.

LV isn't a class horse given her terrible strike rate - especially outside rain affected fair tracks. She might be a Criterion and they've finally found the right way to train her but I'm plenty happy to risk that her QE win was a fluke that isn't repeated. I don't rate the Mares form as highly as you do - never rated Peeping and we saw how Azka lowered he colours in the Brisbane winter. Outside Winx the older WFA brigade are terrible and she just took her turn (admittedly very easily) in the QE. There is only one class older horse in Australia at these distances and it's Winx.

agreed. but it's first up, things change first up. nothing here would be within 2L if it weren't. maybe LV if it continues it's hot-run.

while it's first up though it brings winx back and probably gives me more confidence with LV running well.

 

[iluvparis]

agreed. but it's first up, things change first up. nothing here would be within 2L if it weren't. maybe LV if it continues it's hot-run.

What things change first up? Nothing for the really good horses. Her last two first up wins have been huge?

 

[Main Man]

One is a 2yo coming out of one of our weakest 2yo generations I can remember for years. The other is the best horse in Australia by panels and the best we've seen since BC.

The comparison is completely invalid. Pretty sure people here were tipping against Winx every start last Autumn for similar reasons and she got to some ridiculous prices. Hope it continues this Spring

If there is horse to be risked on previous campaigns it will be LV.

Edit: Jug beat me to it - both comparisons are ridiculous - Winx has already proved she can come back (Contributor was an import and is trained by a complete hack)

I was never against her in the Autumn but happy to watch her on Saturday, simple as that, not potting the horse in any way shape or form.

 

[FallingLiefs]

What things change first up? Nothing for the really good horses. Her last two first up wins have been huge?

i didn't love it and it's not something i'd take $1.60 on in a better field. before that the form was also skinny. she should still win.

 

[iluvparis]

i didn't love it and it's not something i'd take $1.60 on in a better field. before that the form was also skinny. she should still win.

Settle down mate - no Tycoon Tara's in this field

In all seriousness though - this is basically exactly the same field as she faced first up last campaign - just one less 1400m specialist.

 

[Main Man]

She has already backed up her brilliant form once. Its jumping at shadows to be afraid she won't come up this time just because it might have happened to another horse in the past anyway imo

Yeah i do. Value is value regardless of odds, $1.50 is probably about where i draw the line personally though

It wasn't an injury, it was a bone chip she had always had and just had removed. Its not going to affect anything form wise for me but im sure she will drift because of it which is good

Lankan Rupee had bone chips removed (or something similar) and was 1.40-1.80 in the Schillaci last year, was gone on the turn, he had G1 wins from multiple campaigns.

Given her best form is 1600M+, she has had the bone chips, is first up off an okay trial by her standards I think that is enough of a reason to stay out for me and the skinny odds.

You will get better odds about her in the better races and that's when I want to be on provided she has come back in good order.

 

[iluvparis]

LR had always shown the capacity to dog it though - Winx hasn't.

How did So You Think go first up after his breathing operation over a distance short of his best?

Wouldn't removing the bone chips improve her?

 

[Jugada]

Lankan Rupee had bone chips removed (or something similar) and was 1.40-1.80 in the Schillaci last year, was gone on the turn, he had G1 wins from multiple campaigns.

Given her best form is 1600M+, she has had the bone chips, is first up off an okay trial by her standards I think that is enough of a reason to stay out for me and the skinny odds.

You will get better odds about her in the better races and that's when I want to be on provided she has come back in good order.

Yeah Lankan Rupee had already finished out the back in his last 2 starts before that, plus didnt he go in for surgery AFTER that Schillaci failure? Or was that for something else? But anyway they were saying he had bone pain, whereas Winx hasn't had any issues with them and just had them removed as a precaution

She has never been a trial performer but always goes well fresh (6: 5-0-0) and you can only expect her to be more forward this time as Waller obviously wants to keep the winning streak going. She should be about $1.35 for me given the field so will just wait and see what odds i can get on the day but if she is over $1.50 then ill be diving in for sure

 

[Main Man]

LR had always shown the capacity to dog it though - Winx hasn't.

How did So You Think go first up after his breathing operation over a distance short of his best?

Wouldn't removing the bone chips improve her?

Maybe but how do you know what impact it is going to have?

Will you be taking the 1.45 this weekend?

I never take 1.45 about any horse first up at this level no matter how good they might be.

 

[iluvparis]

I never take odds on

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Little OT, but question guys do any of you use some sort of App or site to blackbook a few horses, then it can remind you when they are due to run next?? Only reason I ask is sometimes I'll see something at Sandown/Cantabury on a Wednesday, like the look off it, only to see it come up on a Saturday and win .. But I forgot about it. Would be super handy leading into spring

 

[iluvparis]

Little OT, but question guys do any of you use some sort of App or site to blackbook a few horses, then it can remind you when they are due to run next?? Only reason I ask is sometimes I'll see something at Sandown/Cantabury on a Wednesday, like the look off it, only to see it come up on a Saturday and win .. But I forgot about it. Would be super handy leading into spring

Yup - I use www.racingzone.com.au - you can click on My stable at any stage and it will tell you when they are entered - then it sends you an email on the day of race.

 

[HeathySure]

Capatilist not going to the Golden Rose. What a shock. Aiming for the Coolmore apparently. But i would bet on it being retired beforehand


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[HeathySure]

https://www.punters.com.au/news/Cal...medium=push&utm_campaign=browser-notification

reminiscent of the greatest caller of them all Stewart Shenton from Perth. love this. all callers should call them out!

 

[Main Man]

Watching Xtravagants jump out last Friday I couldn't help but be impressed by the the winner of the heat in Piccadillies, a 3yo filly who was yet to race, had no idea she was a half to Fastnet Rock, sire Uncle Mo who I haven't seen any of over here.

Goes around Race 4 at Moonee Valley on Saturday, very interesting runner.

 

[Jugada]

Don't like my chances of getting $1.80 about Winx. Opens $1.35 which seems about right. LV to place looks like the best bet now, taking on 4 stayers resuming + Rebel Dane

 

[FallingLiefs]

Watching Xtravagants jump out last Friday I couldn't help but be impressed by the the winner of the heat in Piccadillies, a 3yo filly who was yet to race, had no idea she was a half to Fastnet Rock, sire Uncle Mo who I haven't seen any of over here.

Goes around Race 4 at Moonee Valley on Saturday, very interesting runner.

huge wraps on the uncle mo's (well, the Australian ones). already got runs on board in the US too.

 

[Main Man]

Don't like my chances of getting $1.80 about Winx. Opens $1.35 which seems about right. LV to place looks like the best bet now, taking on 4 stayers resuming + Rebel Dane

Looking at the final field I have to agree, no chance you should be getting 1.80 now and if you do I honestly don't think you would want to be on.

 

[Main Man]

huge wraps on the uncle mo's (well, the Australian ones). already got runs on board in the US too.

Lee Freedman said they have done well over the middle distances in Europe so she could be a Thousand Guineas type.

Won a trial back in November 15 as an early 2yo but went amiss, jump out last week was impressive.

TAB went up $11, surprised if she doesn't start much shorter despite being a competitive race.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Lee Freedman said they have done well over the middle distances in Europe so she could be a Thousand Guineas type.

Won a trial back in November 15 as an early 2yo but went amiss, jump out last week was impressive.

TAB went up $11, surprised if she doesn't start much shorter despite being a competitive race.

kentucky derby winner on his maiden 3yo season so probably a very good chance for the distance events.

 

[iluvparis]

Don't like my chances of getting $1.80 about Winx. Opens $1.35 which seems about right. LV to place looks like the best bet now, taking on 4 stayers resuming + Rebel Dane

No bet race if ever I've seen one. Interesting LV is 1-5 against rivals she faces on Saturday.

 

[iluvparis]

Looking at the final field I have to agree, no chance you should be getting 1.80 now and if you do I honestly don't think you would want to be on.

??? The final field is basically the noms - solid flip flop

 

[iluvparis]

kentucky derby winner on his maiden 3yo season so probably a very good chance for the distance events.

Kentucky Derby winners isn't where I'd be looking for staying blood

 

[Jugada]

??? The final field is basically the noms - solid flip flop

Minus the great Dibayani

 

[Main Man]

??? The final field is basically the noms - solid flip flop

To be honest I only scanned over the original nominations, much weaker than I first thought.