AFL Autopsy Beaten by Saint Kilda

[bombreys]

About as close as we can get to not winning in order to get the best possible draft pick and being happy with how we went.

I know losing is good for the draft/future/whatever, but jeez in the heat of the moment I wanted to win that game so bad

 

[ant555]

had a really brief look and quite a few of the more recent premiership teams had less than 6 top 10 picks. They were mainly built on good second rounders, astute free agents and later picks. Obviously had the genuine guns but the premise was smart list management and good development

It is not rocket science. Every premiership side in the last 20 years has built off a few good drafts (pick range not an issue. Just good picks) and then smart trading and FA pick ups.

It really comes down to a good list management team and a competent list manager.
First or second round or rookie picks. You just have to have a strong 3 or 4 year period and you have to make sure you are ticking off on getting a spread of competitors / leaders / endurance runners and players with some footy IQ.

 

[ghostdog]

lol hawks 3 flag team had the following.

Pick 1 - Luke Hodge
Pick 2 - Roughead
Pick 5 - Franklin
Pick 7 - Lewis
Pick 12 - Cyril

And they messed up on a Pick 8 and two Pick 6's while drafting Ellis at 3.

The Saints side that should've won a flag had

Pick 11 - Lenny Hayes
Pick 1 - Riewoldt
Pick 2 - Kozzie
Pick 2 - Ball
Pick 5 - Clarke
Pick 13 - Dal Santo
Pick 1 - Goddard

Our problem and current St Kilda's problem is we've been treadmill teams in no mans land that haven't been shit enough to get the top end of the draft or good enough to contend and you have to get lucky to get your NWM at 12 or Merretts at 19 or whatever it was.

St Kilda's current win streak and their 5 out of last 6 last year are just fools gold.

As an aside, Kozzie pick 2 seems over rated in retrospect.

 

[doug85]

I think a reason we’ve been competitive is we have so many players either fighting for a place on the list or fighting to establish themselves as AFL players.

 

[Beerfish]

I think a reason we’ve been competitive is we have so many players either fighting for a place on the list or fighting to establish themselves as AFL players.

Yep. Once they get that juicy contract they can relax into the afl player lifestyle.

 

[jdstorm]

Yes. You’re talking about another sport but I’ll argue it

The thunder didn’t win because they embraced the concept of losing to get draft picks. Savvy trading, savvy later picks got them to where they are now

Their best player and MVP was not drafted by OKC

If you want to talk NBA, there’s a dumpster fire full of franchise hopes and dreams labelled “tanking to win”

If you can’t see that, then I can’t help you

As a massive thunder fan for the last 20 years. They absolutely tanked twice in that period and were largely unlucky the 2nd time with only Chet Holmgren to show from 3 years of tanking.

what they did well is they established a culture where they lost due to lack of talent rather than lack of effort. They also often were playing with a specific positional weakness at C that other teams could exploit and resting veterans (Al horford) to play worse younger players to fast track development.

Eventually they developed role player depth via an attritional process. Found 3 stars (1 via trade, 1 via high draft pick, and one via a trade up into the lottery) and then plugged in 2 key rotation pieces via trade when there young stars were ready and just needed some good role players. (Without sacrificing depth)

One thing they also focused on was positional size and decision making/processing speed.

 

[ghostdog]

As an aside, Kozzie pick 2 seems over rated in retrospect.

Just reread that I wrote this. Probably a bit unfair. I retract the statement.

 

[boncer34]

Maybe. I hate it though. No team has built a premiership winning team by relying on stockpiling high draft picks

Norf are still battling away and trying to shed their loser mentality

Richmond, Melbourne, Collingwood, Bulldogs all had high draft picks in their team, all had multiple first rounders.

High draft picks dont guarantee you flags but you dont win flags without them unless you have an academy or cotton on.

 

[bacon buster]

Richmond, Melbourne, Collingwood, Bulldogs all had high draft picks in their team, all had multiple first rounders.

High draft picks dont guarantee you flags but you dont win flags without them unless you have an academy or cotton on.

Agree. Higher pick usually means better player. However, I believe we might have the most first round picks on our list in the league?

Culture is the most important element in building a premiership team. Losing on purpose, or being “happy” with losing won’t get you anywhere.

 

[Beerfish]

Culture is the most important element in building a premiership team. Losing on purpose, or being “happy” with losing won’t get you anywhere.

Are you talking about the culture of the team or the sentiment here? I'm pretty sure the team isn't happy to lose. The two aren't interchangeable or the same thing.

 

[jdstorm]

Agree. Higher pick usually means better player. However, I believe we might have the most first round picks on our list in the league?

Culture is the most important element in building a premiership team. Losing on purpose, or being “happy” with losing won’t get you anywhere.

First round pick is almost a meaningless term.

It’s really top 12 picks that matter.

We also have a bunch of players who’s skills don’t compliment each other’s and makes the skill of the team less then the value of the sum of its parts

 

[jannissary]

let’s not forget that brisbane won it with a mixture of top end talent and low pick role players.

neale, andrews, payne & answerth all 50+ picks, mcinernry, cameron were both rookie listed players. lohmann and morris were both fresh & they both played extremely well. they also have plenty of top end talent but the mix is important.

 

[bacon buster]

Are you talking about the culture of the team or the sentiment here? I'm pretty sure the team isn't happy to lose. The two aren't interchangeable or the same thing.

Sentiment of the fans. I don't believe the team is happy to lose either. Although, they have done a fair bit of it.

 

[bacon buster]

First round pick is almost a meaningless term.

It’s really top 12 picks that matter.

We also have a bunch of players who’s skills don’t compliment each other’s and makes the skill of the team less then the value of the sum of its parts

Ok

So we have 10 top 12 picks on our list (4 top 5) + Hobbs and Kako pick 13 + Shiel pre draft

Geelong have 6 top 12 (0 top 5) + Cameron and Martin who were pre-draft
Brisbane have 7 top 12 (5 top 5)
Collingwood have 6 top 12 (4 top 5)

Interesting stats I guess. I agree with your last part. It essentially boils down to it doesn't matter how many draft picks you have, it's how to use and develop them

 

[faible]

Ok

So we have 10 top 12 picks on our list (4 top 5) + Hobbs and Kako pick 13 + Shiel pre draft

Geelong have 6 top 12 (0 top 5) + Cameron and Martin who were pre-draft
Brisbane have 7 top 12 (5 top 5)
Collingwood have 6 top 12 (4 top 5)

Interesting stats I guess. I agree with your last part. It essentially boils down to it doesn't matter how many draft picks you have, it's how to use and develop them

Higher picks give you a better chance of a good player, but not a guarantee. In theory you could probably build out a Premiership winning team across a number of drafts without a single first round selection. Maybe even doable without any seconds either. Most drafts have a handful of guys taken beyond the first two rounds that play a significant number of games (a reasonable proxy for being a decent player).

Still active drafted 3rd round or beyond:

2012: Crisp, Tuohy, Cunningham, Johannisen, Membrey
2013: Laird, Rampe, Byrne-Jones, McGovern*, Amon, Aliir, Sicily, Barrass
2014: Andrews, Daniel, Langdon, Dale, Butler, McGovern (Mitch), Finlayson
2015: Hardwick, Williams, Broad, Dawson, Collins, Silvagni
2016: Ryan, Graham, Josh Daicos, Larkey, Darcy Cameron, Waterman, Willie Rioli
2017: Miers, Worpel, Ballard, Moore, Guelfi, Payne, Xerri



Some genuinely good players there. A bit thin for KPFs and those match-winning goal kicking midfielders. But pretty solid across the defensive line, good ruck options and ok smaller forwards.

 

[Beerfish]

Sentiment of the fans. I don't believe the team is happy to lose either. Although, they have done a fair bit of it.

Well I don't think the fans have any effect on the culture of the club in that sense so it's not really a valid association.

 

[bacon buster]

Well I don't think the fans have any effect on the culture of the club in that sense so it's not really a valid association.

Fans have no impact on club culture? Interesting take there.

 

[Beerfish]

Fans have no impact on club culture? Interesting take there.

Try reading the whole sentence.

 

[bacon buster]

Try reading the whole sentence.

Which part of the sentence did you want me to read? If you didn't like my interpretation, you could have written it better.

 

[Beerfish]

Which part of the sentence did you want me to read?

The bit that says 'in that sense'. Meaning fans being glad to have a competitive hitout whilst not negatively impacting the draft hand does not negatively impact club culture. If the club or the team were happy about that it would be more concerning. Is that clear enough for you?

 

[bacon buster]

Much clearer. I still don't agree, but that's ok.

 

[Beerfish]

Much clearer. I still don't agree, but that's ok.

Yes it's absolutely fine for you to be wrong.

 

[King Patty]

The Saints side that should've won a flag had

Pick 11 - Lenny Hayes
Pick 1 - Riewoldt
Pick 2 - Kozzie
Pick 2 - Ball
Pick 5 - Clarke
Pick 13 - Dal Santo
Pick 1 - Goddard

Our problem and current St Kilda's problem is we've been treadmill teams in no mans land that haven't been shit enough to get the top end of the draft or good enough to contend and you have to get lucky to get your NWM at 12 or Merretts at 19 or whatever it was.

St Kilda's current win streak and their 5 out of last 6 last year are just fools gold.

If the saints had ball playing for them rather than the opposition, they could have

 

[bacon buster]

Yes it's absolutely fine for you to be wrong.

Try reading the whole sentence.

 

[bacon buster]

Higher picks give you a better chance of a good player, but not a guarantee. In theory you could probably build out a Premiership winning team across a number of drafts without a single first round selection. Maybe even doable without any seconds either. Most drafts have a handful of guys taken beyond the first two rounds that play a significant number of games (a reasonable proxy for being a decent player).

Still active drafted 3rd round or beyond:

2012: Crisp, Tuohy, Cunningham, Johannisen, Membrey
2013: Laird, Rampe, Byrne-Jones, McGovern*, Amon, Aliir, Sicily, Barrass
2014: Andrews, Daniel, Langdon, Dale, Butler, McGovern (Mitch), Finlayson
2015: Hardwick, Williams, Broad, Dawson, Collins, Silvagni
2016: Ryan, Graham, Josh Daicos, Larkey, Darcy Cameron, Waterman, Willie Rioli
2017: Miers, Worpel, Ballard, Moore, Guelfi, Payne, Xerri



Some genuinely good players there. A bit thin for KPFs and those match-winning goal kicking midfielders. But pretty solid across the defensive line, good ruck options and ok smaller forwards.

That's pretty much what Geelong have done.

They only have 1 top 10 pick on their list that they drafted themselves (Jhye Clarke), and that was a stuff up. The only other first round picks of their own were Sullivan @ 11, and Holmes and De Konig at 20, right at the end of the first round