AFL Autopsy Beaten by Saint Kilda

[Westlo]

Maybe. I hate it though. No team has built a premiership winning team by relying on stockpiling high draft picks

Norf are still battling away and trying to shed their loser mentality

lol hawks 3 flag team had the following.

Pick 1 - Luke Hodge
Pick 2 - Roughead
Pick 5 - Franklin
Pick 7 - Lewis
Pick 12 - Cyril

And they messed up on a Pick 8 and two Pick 6's while drafting Ellis at 3.

The Saints side that should've won a flag had

Pick 11 - Lenny Hayes
Pick 1 - Riewoldt
Pick 2 - Kozzie
Pick 2 - Ball
Pick 5 - Clarke
Pick 13 - Dal Santo
Pick 1 - Goddard

Our problem and current St Kilda's problem is we've been treadmill teams in no mans land that haven't been shit enough to get the top end of the draft or good enough to contend and you have to get lucky to get your NWM at 12 or Merretts at 19 or whatever it was.

St Kilda's current win streak and their 5 out of last 6 last year are just fools gold.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Sorry. I was “happy” too. I meant happy in the context of getting a better draft pick.

If it were a regular season where we didn't have as many injuries and in-season list changes forced upon us then I'd say fair enough. Less happy but more accepting of the way the cards are falling.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Our problem and current St Kilda's problem is we've been treadmill teams in no mans land that haven't been shit enough

You used 2 teams and had to go all the way back to 2000 for one. I can count 5+ others that fell down and won nothing.

Also,

Your analogy of "not being shit enough" (what an absolute loser mentality) is a common misconception.

I'd say the disctinction between us winning games in the past when we've been out of finals contention and now is that back then we had teams full of experienced hacks with an expectation to compete, whereas now we've had a substantual dip into raw talent so while we're not in finals contention it's not off the back of an imbalanced list experience-wise that's underperforming which had no goes at youth but a list that deserves to be rewarded and is in need of learning a winning attitude.

So winning a late game would actually be of benefit and perhaps we may still have the reward of a win up our sleeve this year but if not I would say close competitive games are the next best thing to that.

 

[bacon buster]

lol hawks 3 flag team had the following.

Pick 1 - Luke Hodge
Pick 2 - Roughead
Pick 5 - Franklin
Pick 7 - Lewis
Pick 12 - Cyril

And they messed up on a Pick 8 and two Pick 6's while drafting Ellis at 3.

The Saints side that should've won a flag had

Pick 11 - Lenny Hayes
Pick 1 - Riewoldt
Pick 2 - Kozzie
Pick 2 - Ball
Pick 5 - Clarke
Pick 13 - Dal Santo
Pick 1 - Goddard

Our problem and current St Kilda's problem is we've been treadmill teams in no mans land that haven't been shit enough to get the top end of the draft or good enough to contend and you have to get lucky to get your NWM at 12 or Merretts at 19 or whatever it was.

St Kilda's current win streak and their 5 out of last 6 last year are just fools gold.

So 1 team eh?

How did the Hawks get those picks in 04 do you think? They weren't tanking, I can tell you that. Hodge is also the only No 1 pick that won a flag with the club who drafted them. How did they get that pick again, do you remember?

St Kilda, Melbourne and Carlton all tanked for years without success. North have been doing it for 5-6 years.

If you follow other sports, when teams build a culture of "it's ok we're losing, because we're getting draft picks and will eventually win", it simply doesn't work as a strategy.

 

[Pesche]

most i've enjoyed watching a game of footy for the last 2-3 months.
Happy with the effort and good signs from a lot of players.
Redman was immense, would of been all time if he kicked the winner
mcgrath in the middle actually looking like a #1 pick
like blakistons confidence to take the game on - one occasion where he left his man to impact the contest and saved a goal
Roberts huge again, lual doing nice things, my boy mcmahon gonna be our leading goal kicker by years end. Goldy was huge in the ruck and mad respect to Prior - gotta be close to most improved in the second half of the year. Looks really solid.
even perkins put in a decent cameo

 

[Run and carry]

Not sure this is high on our problem list. Not as though they or the team as a whole played like they didn't care.
Effort and intensity were everything you could ask for, it's just the failings of disposal skill and decision making that keep costing us. Hopefully the younger blokes improve in those areas with experience. The worry is the experienced guys who keep making the same errors.

I'm sure the players care and all clubs players do it but it always seems a bit strange seeing players so jovial straight after a loss. A close one at that.

 

[Westlo]

You used 2 teams and had to go all the way back to 2000 for one. I can count 5+ others that fell down and won nothing.

Also,

Your analogy of "not being shit enough" (what an absolute loser mentality) is a common misconception.

I'd say the disctinction between us winning games in the past when we've been out of finals contention and now is that back then we had teams full of experienced hacks with an expectation to compete, whereas now we've had a substantual dip into raw talent so while we're not in finals contention it's not off the back of an imbalanced list experience-wise that's underperforming which had no goes at youth but a list that deserves to be rewarded and is in need of learning a winning attitude.

So winning a late game would actually be of benefit and perhaps we may still have the reward of a win up our sleeve this year but if not I would say close competitive games are the next best thing to that.

lmao, obviously the following includes father sons/academy but it shows where they were valued in the draft.

Pick 2 - Will Ashcroft
Pick 12 - Jasper Fletcher
Pick 1 - Cam Rayner
Pick 15 - Zac Bailey
Pick 3 - McClug
Pick 14 - Eric Hipwood

And if they win this year

Pick 5 - Levi Ashcroft

And the year after

Probably Top 5 - Annable.

Pies flag was won off players picked 4, 5, 9, 5 and 11.

Cotchin 2 and Martin 3, when was the last time we picked that high in a 2-3 year span, it was 96 and 97.

Recent enough for you?

 

[Westlo]

If you follow other sports, when teams build a culture of "it's ok we're losing, because we're getting draft picks and will eventually win", it simply doesn't work as a strategy.

You call yourself a Lakers fan and forget NBA? Hello???

OKC Thunder

and it should've happened in the Durant/Russ/Harden era as well but they ****ed up keeping Ibaka over Harden and not wanting to pay the lux tax for Harden. Was sheer stupidity to not run back the side that lost to the heat.

LOL

 

[Call Me Cake]

lmao, obviously the following includes father sons/academy but it shows where they were valued in the draft.

Pick 2 - Will Ashcroft
Pick 12 - Jasper Fletcher
Pick 1 - Cam Rayner
Pick 15 - Zac Bailey
Pick 3 - McClug
Pick 14 - Eric Hipwood

And if they win this year

Pick 5 - Levi Ashcroft

And the year after

Probably Top 5 - Annable.

Pies flag was won off players picked 4, 5, 9, 5 and 11.

Cotchin 2 and Martin 3, when was the last time we picked that high in a 2-3 year span, it was 96 and 97.

Recent enough for you?

Brisbane were down for 7 years because they were genuinely shit and when nothing was working out they had to be given the first priority pick under the current rules (which they didn't even use but traded away as ammo for the future acquisition of Charlie Cameron). Two years under Fagan fixing things up and proper recruiting, and they were on the improve. They continued to load up/make use of their academy which puts them outside the equation, likewise with Sydney.

I'd say in the modern game if you want to compete you've gotta have a nucleus of youth to build with but also an ability to acquire as you go, turning wantaway players into good role players as well as luring potential stars and the best way to lure them is to have a winning culture that makes it easier to sell the vision. It's not about being on the bottom for 6 years like Norf but assembling an even spread of runners and competitors and topping off with project players/elite arrivals when you're getting closer to the finished product.

Adelaide is a good example of that. Richmond, which you used, is another example where Cotchin/Rance/Reiwoldt/Martin were all drafted 8-12 years before their first flag (yeah, we're not waiting 12 years) and the key instruments that helped them reach the next level was evening the spread of their role-players and low picks/low-profile arrivals between 2010-2017, a 7 year period where they didn't finish at the bottom and had 3 consecutive finals losses to show for it.

Your ideas of what it takes to be successful is an outdated one and frankly is outweighed by the countless teams that have finished low but haven't won a flag. Even then correlation doesn't equal causation.

Establishing a winning culture/rewarding your youth for their efforts matters and we're not comparable at this moment to those imbalanced lofty expectation-driven sides that we had in the past. You have to go back to the early 90's to get a similar demographic of the list we have now.

 

[jdBombers3598]

We cant afford to win next week. Melbourne can still jump c******

 

[Call Me Cake]

View attachment 2396318

We cant afford to win next week. Melbourne can still jump c******

Highly doubt the Dees beat Hawks and Pies and reckon there's more of a chance of the scum beating Port which would put them at 36 points after this weekend.

 

[jdBombers3598]

Highly doubt the Dees beat Hawks and Pies and reckon there's more of a chance of the scum beating Port which would put them at 36 points after this weekend.

I reckon melbourne win next week. Pies struggling and nearly lost it on kings bday

 

[bacon buster]

You call yourself a Lakers fan and forget NBA? Hello???

OKC Thunder

and it should've happened in the Durant/Russ/Harden era as well but they ****ed up keeping Ibaka over Harden and not wanting to pay the lux tax for Harden. Was sheer stupidity to not run back the side that lost to the heat.

LOL

Yes. You’re talking about another sport but I’ll argue it

The thunder didn’t win because they embraced the concept of losing to get draft picks. Savvy trading, savvy later picks got them to where they are now

Their best player and MVP was not drafted by OKC

If you want to talk NBA, there’s a dumpster fire full of franchise hopes and dreams labelled “tanking to win”

If you can’t see that, then I can’t help you

 

[Squeaky]

A good effort, no win.
One day soon I hope we draft enough competitive types that we don't have to sit and watch players who have been in the game for all of a minute disrespect our players.
I hope that time is up for us taking shit and we might dish some out.
(Mansell and Tairu) Infuriating!

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

I thought it was interesting how Ross Lyon said we were a high marking high switch team previously to the last month being just a get to the contest and get it out team.

Less switch and more direct is hopefully where we go next season

 

[KeenObserver24]

What makes Redman try like that tonight? It was a choice, he chose to play really good. It's confusing.

We were winning the territory battle for large parts of the game, lets us set up behind the ball so players like Redman can get in dangerous positions.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

Let's not get carried away with a few players having decent games. This is what those type of players do.

It's classic Essendon.

St Kilda are just as big an embarrassment of a side.

 

[Beerfish]

Let's not get carried away with a few players having decent games. This is what those type of players do.

It's classic Essendon.

St Kilda are just as big an embarrassment of a side.

I don't think a single person is getting carried away.

 

[bomberlegend2007]

lol hawks 3 flag team had the following.

Pick 1 - Luke Hodge
Pick 2 - Roughead
Pick 5 - Franklin
Pick 7 - Lewis
Pick 12 - Cyril

And they messed up on a Pick 8 and two Pick 6's while drafting Ellis at 3.

The Saints side that should've won a flag had

Pick 11 - Lenny Hayes
Pick 1 - Riewoldt
Pick 2 - Kozzie
Pick 2 - Ball
Pick 5 - Clarke
Pick 13 - Dal Santo
Pick 1 - Goddard

Our problem and current St Kilda's problem is we've been treadmill teams in no mans land that haven't been shit enough to get the top end of the draft or good enough to contend and you have to get lucky to get your NWM at 12 or Merretts at 19 or whatever it was.

St Kilda's current win streak and their 5 out of last 6 last year are just fools gold.

Honestly, comparing drafting profiles with lists in a 16 team comp, without FA, it’s meaningless in my opinion. Hawthorn and St Kilda were benefiting from a system which gave an over abundance of picks when teams were down the bottom. One could argue, it needs to return.

But for every Hawthorn and St. Kilda, you have a Melbourne 12-15/North Melbourne.

Essendon’s issue is that we have failed to adapt with the changes and understanding where our list has been at. I think the club has turned the page. Need to use FA well from 27-30 to make the club ready for success.

 

[jannissary]

Last 4 games McMahon is level with Voss at 9.2 a piece

so what you’re saying is that we should delist him…

 

[Zach Package]

so what you’re saying is that we should delist him…

With extreme prejudice

 

[jannissary]

lot to like, guess we’re 2 players closer to playing the entire list (sans cox).

was skeptical about langers coming in fresh off an injury (and ressies game but he played well. genuinely feel bad that laverde went down considering i dislike him a lot. think that’s what turned it

lots to like, bring it next week

 

[Milanista28]

We were winning the territory battle for large parts of the game, lets us set up behind the ball so players like Redman can get in dangerous positions.

I understand this position/viewpoint, he was running way harder for the overlap, he was engaged, just seemed to me he chose to play good yesterday. Sounds weird, I agree.

 

[Yoda_]

lol hawks 3 flag team had the following.

Pick 1 - Luke Hodge
Pick 2 - Roughead
Pick 5 - Franklin
Pick 7 - Lewis
Pick 12 - Cyril

And they messed up on a Pick 8 and two Pick 6's while drafting Ellis at 3.

The Saints side that should've won a flag had

Pick 11 - Lenny Hayes
Pick 1 - Riewoldt
Pick 2 - Kozzie
Pick 2 - Ball
Pick 5 - Clarke
Pick 13 - Dal Santo
Pick 1 - Goddard

Our problem and current St Kilda's problem is we've been treadmill teams in no mans land that haven't been shit enough to get the top end of the draft or good enough to contend and you have to get lucky to get your NWM at 12 or Merretts at 19 or whatever it was.

St Kilda's current win streak and their 5 out of last 6 last year are just fools gold.

had a really brief look and quite a few of the more recent premiership teams had less than 6 top 10 picks. They were mainly built on good second rounders, astute free agents and later picks. Obviously had the genuine guns but the premise was smart list management and good development

 

[faible]

The problem most tanking sides have is that they have a broken culture. They’re shit because they’re shit at an institutional level. North are shit at every level. Melbourne were shit at every level. Carlton were shit at every level.

It takes a lot of good decisions and a number of years to fix that.

Scott is selling many of the same things Rutten was, it’s taken years to extricate Dodoro, and we’re starting just now to see what drafting a few competitor types is going to look like.

We’ve been ‘lucky’ to have a year that effectively tanks our draft picks without actually tanking. Swans did the same thing a couple of years ago, one down year and off they went. In this window we need to find some genuine match winners.

Richmond have sold off overvalued senior players for a premium, whilst retaining a core group of leaders that can keep the culture from imploding. It’ll be interesting to see how their next few years comes together.

Meanwhile; North have dug themselves in to a deep dark hole.