Brexit - The UK referendum on leaving the EU - Reneging, reshmeging!

[donkeypunchd]

Not sure the idea of threatening to beggar the Irish economy is necessarily plausible anymore. While Moody’s warn that Brexit would diminish growth, there exists scope for Ireland to pick up additional FDI on the back of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

No-deal Brexit: Ireland ‘relatively well prepared’, says Moody’s

Ratings agency expects State to attract additional FDI in a no-deal Brexit

www.irishtimes.com

 

[donkeypunchd]

Wrong. UK has an opt-out and is not forced into migrant quotas. Whatever asylum seekers UK has taken from the EU is through their own approvals.

Such a scheme might compel most member states to accept more asylum seekers, but the UK is an exception. We have what's often referred to as an opt-out, although strictly speaking what happens is that EU laws on the likes of asylum and border control don't apply to the UK unless we choose to opt in.

The UK can't be forced to accept more refugees - Full Fact

The EU can't force Britain to take a "quota" of refugees from other EU countries. The UK can choose to opt in to any such EU plan.

fullfact.org

Here is the official EU word on it:

2.2. Legal basis The legal basis for the proposed Council Decision is Article 78(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. In accordance with the provisions of Protocol No 21 annexed to the TFEU on the position of the United Kingdom and Ireland in respect of the area of freedom, security and justice, the United Kingdom and Ireland do not take part in the adoption by the Council of proposed measures pursuant to Title V of Part Three of the TFEU. The United Kingdom and Ireland may notify the Council, within three months after a proposal or initiative has been presented, or at any time after its adoption, that they wish to take part in the adoption and application of any such proposed measures

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/sites/homeaffairs/files/what-we-do/policies/european-agenda-migration/proposal-implementation-package/docs/proposal_for_council_decision_establishing_provisional_measures_in_the_area_of_international_protection_for_it_gr_and_hu_en.pdf#page=8

It's strictly if they WISH TO.


As usual, disinformation and Brexit go hand in hand.

In other words, the Tory backbenchers (who endlessly criticise Brussels) are themselves responsible in their role as parliamentarians for any additional asylum seekers the UK may agree to take. I didn’t see that on the side of the Brexit Bus. Too wordy, no doubt.

 

[HairyO]

Meanwhile Germany is heading for recession. So who funds all the lazy socialists across Europe once their economy tanks?

 

[Total Power]

In other words, the Tory backbenchers (who endlessly criticise Brussels) are themselves responsible in their role as parliamentarians for any additional asylum seekers the UK may agree to take. I didn’t see that on the side of the Brexit Bus. Too wordy, no doubt.

Helps with the spin of the propaganda, by taking in more brown people showing these uneducated Brexiters "look how they are coming". Problem with Brexiters is that they will swallow any propaganda, like Procrastinator35 blaming the Jews for everything, their stock standard blame game lies with the EU. All Good = UK , All bad = EU. That's their game, and none of these Brexiters care to research before opening their gob

 

[donkeypunchd]

Helps with the spin of the propaganda, by taking in more brown people showing these uneducated Brexiters "look how they are coming". Problem with Brexiters is that they will swallow any propaganda, like Procrastinator35 blaming the Jews for everything, their stock standard blame game lies with the EU. All Good = UK , All bad = EU. That's their game, and none of these Brexiters care to research before opening their gob

It’s deliberate omission - they all know this, but it suits their ideological agenda to blame Brussels for their own shortcomings.

 

[Dipper]

Meanwhile Germany is heading for recession. So who funds all the lazy socialists across Europe once their economy tanks?

You could look at it the other way.


The EU has regulations in place around intra EU trade surplus. I can't remember the details exactly but it's pretty much that no nation is allowed to run a trade surplus of over 5% for more than 3 years in a row with the rest of the EU. Germany exceeded that a number of years ago, last time I read they were up to 6 years (Its probably more by now), EU had discussions and basically said nothing to see here carry on as there are extenuating circumstances (yes that it's Germany pretty much)

The point is that Germany hoovers up capital from other EU nations but there isn't the same mechanism for redistribution that exists in nation states.

They're not getting these balance of payment surpluses because of an inbuilt German superiority(despite what many Germans have always believed!) but rather the Euro is artificially too low for their economy but too high for many of the southern nations.

In 1998 Italy had a balance of trade surplus with Germany but has had deficits ever since. Wonder what happened in 1999? The Euro was created, straight away German goods became more competitive and Italian ones less so.

1999 was the year of peak wealth for Italy, for Spain, Greece, Portugal it's between 2003-2007.

The Euro has smashed those nations and benefited Germany and Netherlands especially.

Germany makes far more money from selling stuff to the 'socialist' EU nations than it gives back in its EU contributions.

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[Dipper]

Not sure the idea of threatening to beggar the Irish economy is necessarily plausible anymore. While Moody’s warn that Brexit would diminish growth, there exists scope for Ireland to pick up additional FDI on the back of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

No-deal Brexit: Ireland ‘relatively well prepared’, says Moody’s

Ratings agency expects State to attract additional FDI in a no-deal Brexit

www.irishtimes.com

The Irish economic model is almost entirely driven by it's beggar thy neighbour super low corporation tax rate that sees Google, Amazon, Apple etc pay corporation tax on UK sales in Ireland. UK is second biggest market for those 3 corporations.

UK could quite possibly just try to mitigate Brexit by becoming the low corporation tax hub of Europe. The EU have already put in place regulations forcing Ireland to raise their rate which would increase UK's competitive advantage if they go down that route and of course UK would be free from EU interference in this regard.

On SM-J330G using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[HairyO]

You could look at it the other way.


The EU has regulations in place around intra EU trade surplus. I can't remember the details exactly but it's pretty much that no nation is allowed to run a trade surplus of over 5% for more than 3 years in a row with the rest of the EU. Germany exceeded that a number of years ago, last time I read they were up to 6 years (Its probably more by now), EU had discussions and basically said nothing to see here carry on as there are extenuating circumstances (yes that it's Germany pretty much)

The point is that Germany hoovers up capital from other EU nations but there isn't the same mechanism for redistribution that exists in nation states.

They're not getting these balance of payment surpluses because of an inbuilt German superiority(despite what many Germans have always believed!) but rather the Euro is artificially too low for their economy but too high for many of the southern nations.

In 1998 Italy had a balance of trade surplus with Germany but has had deficits ever since. Wonder what happened in 1999? The Euro was created, straight away German goods became more competitive and Italian ones less so.

1999 was the year of peak wealth for Italy, for Spain, Greece, Portugal it's between 2003-2007.

The Euro has smashed those nations and benefited Germany and Netherlands especially.

Germany makes far more money from selling stuff to the 'socialist' EU nations than it gives back in its EU contributions.

On SM-J330G using BigFooty.com mobile app

But a recession would most likely mean factory shutdowns. The dips create troughs.

 

[Total Power]

But a recession would most likely mean factory shutdowns. The dips create troughs.

Recession is not new, the last recession was bad enough. The EU is going nowhere, Disunited kingdom on the other hand....

 

[Mofra]

Meanwhile Germany is heading for recession. So who funds all the lazy socialists across Europe once their economy tanks?

Frankfurt has just been given a $1 trillion Euro injection from companies fleeing the City pre-Brexit, that helps.

 

[The Warlord]

The Irish economic model is almost entirely driven by it's beggar thy neighbour super low corporation tax rate that sees Google, Amazon, Apple etc pay corporation tax on UK sales in Ireland. UK is second biggest market for those 3 corporations.

UK could quite possibly just try to mitigate Brexit by becoming the low corporation tax hub of Europe. The EU have already put in place regulations forcing Ireland to raise their rate which would increase UK's competitive advantage if they go down that route and of course UK would be free from EU interference in this regard.

On SM-J330G using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yeah, Ireland's in 12.5 per cent and Britain's will be 17 per cent next year, not a huge difference.

The key reason Ireland attracts these companies is that they long ago set out a comprehensive industry policy to pull themselves into economic modernity - the late 80s and early 90s.

They realised they had three key things going for them:

- EU membership
- A well educated English speaking workforce
- Population desperate to work

But the key is the EU membership. Its why Britain got Nissan to Sunderland.

Britain can try and become some low rent North Sea Singapore if it likes, I mean London is already the world capital of organised crime money laundering, but truly global corporations know they need an EU base and Ireland's physical location - five hours from the East Coast and an hour and a half to Brussels and existing first mover advantages mean its not getting knocked off that perch by the desperate Brits next door.

 

[Mofra]

But the key is the EU membership. Its why Britain got Nissan to Sunderland.

Britain can try and become some low rent North Sea Singapore if it likes, I mean London is already the world capital of organised crime money laundering, but truly global corporations know they need an EU base and Ireland's physical location - five hours from the East Coast and an hour and a half to Brussels and existing first mover advantages mean its not getting knocked off that perch by the desperate Brits next door.

Nissan have a licence agreement for Renault so internally 'bid' on assembly projects (most of the manufacturing of components is done elsewhere).
France will avail itself of accelerated customs agreements, the Midlands loses that. Guess who won the last few rounds of assembly projects?

 

[The Warlord]

Nissan have a licence agreement for Renault so internally 'bid' on assembly projects (most of the manufacturing of components is done elsewhere).
France will avail itself of accelerated customs agreements, the Midlands loses that. Guess who won the last few rounds of assembly projects?

Boris is going to have to restart the 100 Years War just to get rid of the excessive young male population north of the M25.

 

[Mofra]

Boris is going to have to restart the 100 Years War just to get rid of the excessive young male population north of the M25.

The midlands overwhelmingly voted leave, although there are a large number of ex-mining grey voters there who don't have to care about employment.
They might soon, as unemployment spikes and thousands of bored, poor young 'un start getting themselves into mischief.

 

[The Warlord]

The midlands overwhelmingly voted leave, although there are a large number of ex-mining grey voters there who don't have to care about employment.
They might soon, as unemployment spikes and thousands of bored, poor young 'un start getting themselves into mischief.

They voted Leave coz they knew it would piss off the metropolitan classes that look down on them, not as part of any thought out economic plan.

 

[The Warlord]

 

[DaRick]

They voted Leave coz they knew it would p**s off the metropolitan classes that look down on them, not as part of any thought out economic plan.

From their perspective they were already at rock-bottom being part of the EU, so how could leaving make it any worse?

(N.B. - Things can always get worse, and this is coming from someone who is no fan of the EU.)

 

[Total Power]

From their perspective they were already at rock-bottom being part of the EU, so how could leaving make it any worse?

(N.B. - Things can always get worse, and this is coming from someone who is no fan of the EU.)

Don't remember how it was before the EU membership i assume? UK's growth have exceeded the US since joining the EU and the median income has grown 5x times compared to the US. That is rockbottom to you? Almost full employment in a country where majority of the migrants are Non-EU?

 

[DaRick]

Don't remember how it was before the EU membership i assume? UK's growth have exceeded the US since joining the EU and the median income has grown 5x times compared to the US. That is rockbottom to you? Almost full employment in a country where majority of the migrants are Non-EU?

Please re-read my post.

I said things were rock-bottom from their perspective.

I also said that things can always get worse even without EU membership.

 

[The Warlord]

From their perspective they were already at rock-bottom being part of the EU, so how could leaving make it any worse?

(N.B. - Things can always get worse, and this is coming from someone who is no fan of the EU.)

Agree one hundred million billion percent.

I'm not the originator of this but it did strike a chord with me when I first read it. In Ireland and Scotland everywhere in Europe when you'd pass some bit of infrastructure funded largely or in part by the EU, it would be all over the signage etc, but England it would be a little EU logo at the bottom corner of the sign.

People not only didn't understand the value of what they got as part of Europe, but the huge English media campaign every day for decades drove home a message that Europe was bad.

In short, they got screwed over culturally by a "New Labour" metropolitan elite that sneered at the regions, and they got screwed over economically by Tory austerity and they witnessed substantial immigration into their once homogenous areas, and the prevailing messaging was "blame Europe".

 

[Bomberboyokay]

 

[Father Jack]

I can't honestly believe that Johnson is banking on Europe doing something that they've spent the past three years ensuring absolutely everyone knows in no uncertain terms that they will categorically not be doing what Johnson is banking on.

 

[Gough]

I can't honestly believe that Johnson is banking on Europe doing something that they've spent the past three years ensuring absolutely everyone knows in no uncertain terms that they will categorically not be doing what Johnson is banking on.

.
Europe won't bend and Parliament won't let him leave with a no deal, he's f***ed.

 

[The Warlord]

Great piece:

Below is what I've been saying:

This seam of foolishness has been knocked down time and again, but survives in the Brexiters’ imagination because it is all they have left. They have to believe that we are powerful, have leverage and can one day rise to become a “great” nation again, because the alternative is to accept that a small country like Ireland is now vastly more powerful than we are, and that we have trashed our influence and reputation for no reason at all.

The truth is that the EU is not afraid of the UK and not afraid of no deal. It is afraid only of its own political fragmentation. It is why the EU insisted on giving us no special favours. It is why they refused to grant us membership of the single market in goods alone despite the advantage this would have given their businesses. And it is why Brussels will never throw Ireland under the bus to stop no deal.

medusala has been "arguing" the Ireland will be abandoned, why isn't he called Murphy like the rest, who cares about the Good Friday Agreement, we'll play Paris and Berlin off against each other line Aka the Boris line.

The Boris line wins Oxford Union debates in the early 80s.

The world in August 2019 is not the Oxford Union in 1984.

 

[The Warlord]

.
Europe won't bend and Parliament won't let him leave with a no deal, he's f***ed.

The Courts are the better safeguard than Parliament.