Can someone explain the logic behind cats being favs against the Dees?

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Herne Hill Hammer

Premium Platinum
Jun 22, 2008
21,981
17,592
Cowes
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Geelong
Yeah I’m a Dess fan, but honestly it’s got nothing to do with that.

They were $1.20 against Adelaide.

Brisbane should have won in the final 25 seconds.

Hawthorn are not expected to do much this year

Additionally

6 day break

Higgins out

No danger

Is this easy money or am I missing something?

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Put your house on Melbourne, they're a moral.
 

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Goggin Our Best

Norm Smith Medallist
May 23, 2011
5,204
7,418
sydney
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Geelong
The odds are as generous as you'll get if you expect Melbourne to win. By game time I'd expect them to be favourites or at least evens.
Yeah agree - the 1st market i saw was Geel $1.70 and Melb $2 - no way id be backing the Cats at that price

its now $1.85 Geel and $1.95 Melb - and as you say come game time Melb will probably start favourite

With the side Geel have currently got available - then if Melb are half decent and improved and a genuine top 4 team then they will win easily - but are they ? - i did read that their 3-0 start is their best in 16 years - that says it all really
 

Bring-Back-Powell

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 27, 2005
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Not sure if it's been mentioned but Melbourne have beaten Geelong once in the last 14 seasons with respect to home and away games. Ofcourse Geelong deserve to be favorites.

Plus Geelong have beaten a quality side in Brisbane. We have not beaten anyone of note unless St Kilda rebound and become the good side we were expecting them to be.
 

GWT6

Senior List
Suspended
Jun 7, 2011
161
650
AFL Club
Melbourne
Not sure if it's been mentioned but Melbourne have beaten Geelong once in the last 14 seasons with respect to home and away games. Ofcourse Geelong deserve to be favorites.

Plus Geelong have beaten a quality side in Brisbane. We have not beaten anyone of note unless St Kilda rebound and become the good side we were expecting them to be.
Results from a decade ago really don't have any relevance to this week's game.
 

Back One Out

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 2, 2015
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[average form...] 6 day break... Higgins out... No Danger...
Is this easy money or am I missing something?
Load up, I reckon. The Dees have been massive underachievers over the past couple of years and Geelong have been overachievers. Melbourne are in pretty good nick at the moment and the Cats are a long way from their best.

Hawkins is great when he can bully a weaker opponent, but Steven May can stand his ground and not get pushed around.
That's a big plus versus Geelong.

The Demons have a good midfield - better than Hawthorn's - classy quick runners who'll take it to the Cats.

]Can someone explain the logic behind cats being favs against the Dees?
I think it's mainly historical.

Look at the record over the past decade. It's not relevant, but it does shape opinion.


2020 - Geelong by 3

2019 - Geelong by 80


2018 - Melbourne by 29
2018 - Geelong by 2
2018 - Geelong by 3

2017 - Geelong by 111

2016 - Geelong by 29


2015 - Melbourne by 24

2014 - Geelong by 66

2013 - Geelong by 68

2012 - Geelong by 43

2011 - Geelong by 186

2010 - Geelong by 54



I wouldn't blame you for not wanting to bet after looking at that.

Have a punt, I say. Take the plunge!

Back your boys in if you're feeling quietly confident
 

JohnZ

Premiership Player
Mar 10, 2016
4,918
7,236
AFL Club
Geelong
Odds are about bookie profits. If the next person puts $100 on a team, what do the odds need to be so that the bookie makes money.

What you need to look at it is the line. That's the bookie prediction. +5.5 which seems about right, close game but expected that the cats would win it.

If you disagree, mortgage the house and chuck it all on red.
 

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Ricketz

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 2, 2011
5,587
6,669
Wagga Wagga
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Geelong
Yeah I’m a Dess fan, but honestly it’s got nothing to do with that.

They were $1.20 against Adelaide.

Brisbane should have won in the final 25 seconds.

Hawthorn are not expected to do much this year

Additionally

6 day break

Higgins out

No danger

Is this easy money or am I missing something?

View attachment 1094939View attachment 1094934
Not sure you want to base your opinion on bookmakers and gambling addicts. The former have an agenda and the latter a clear lack of judgement.

Or you could join the fun and put a pineapple on your boys...
 

maskmcgee

Premiership Player
Feb 25, 2017
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You wantvto know answers to stuff you go here:

Same reason that nobody would touch your game last week, nobody trusts Melbourne.
 

PhatBoy

Brownlow Medallist
May 5, 2016
25,624
26,788
AFL Club
Geelong
While I can fully understand the criticism the cats have copped remember that we have a lot of scope for improvement too. Danger has missed the last two games, Menegola has missed, Cameron has missed, Hawkins’ general play has been excellent but he’s missed 10 shots at goal in 3 weeks - his kicking isn’t famously brilliant but is usually better than that. Duncan missed the first two games. While I understand the concerns about our game style it’s not like there aren’t a few factors that can immediately get better with everyone on deck
 

Ceehook

Club Legend
Oct 3, 2017
1,149
3,159
AFL Club
Richmond
Yeah I’m a Dess fan, but honestly it’s got nothing to do with that.

They were $1.20 against Adelaide.

Brisbane should have won in the final 25 seconds.

Hawthorn are not expected to do much this year

Additionally

6 day break

Higgins out

No danger

Is this easy money or am I missing something?
Geelong are a well established playing group , yes they are a couple of good players down but
make the prelim's for a long time now and are a proven commodity

Melb. are wanting to progress up the ladder , they do look to have hunger and yes Max looks scary :)
The Dees might have caught the Saints at the right time , GWS and the Saints had a tough game in the wet Rnd 1
and both teams were flat the next week
The Dees looked good at Manuka , did the GWS in game injuries have an effect ? Hard to say , I think their players lifted because of it
and in part compensated , but also that Melb. was playing well any way
In my eyes those two games have little asterix against them

we need this game to better assess the Dees

I think Dees $2.05 Cats $1.95 might be closer

I'm looking forward to the game
 

FRUMPY

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 18, 2006
22,531
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Melbourne
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Carlton
You're not one of those 'i was going to bet on them but their odds are too high' sort of person are you?

Sent from my CPH2005 using Tapatalk
 

Hamingja

Brownlow Medallist
May 20, 2014
16,415
20,310
AFL Club
Geelong
So Melbourne opened $2.20 and at the moment you can get $2.12 about Geelong on Betfair.

Could have backed them both for a very nice profit before a ball was bounced.
 

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