Can the Adelaide Crows go all the way?

[Cleric]

All I'll say wait and see.

We dont have any other option.
Fingers crossed the crazy bastards can do it.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Crows did rely a bit on Rankine and Thilthorpe to get out of jail vs us, but I actually wonder if Rankine's absence actually has an upside. Like of course you'd want him in, but maybe not having him continually save your bacon will male you focus on addressing your midfield issues. Nicks doesn't seem bothered by inside 50 or clearance differential, and he ought to a bit more.

IF Adelaide are to win the 2025 premiership it's going to be mostly won in their defence and midfield. Their offence is potent enough.

 

[Golumless]

Crows did rely a bit on Rankine and Thilthorpe to get out of jail vs us, but I actually wonder if Rankine's absence actually has an upside. Like of course you'd want him in, but maybe not having him continually save your bacon will male you focus on addressing your midfield issues. Nicks doesn't seem bothered by inside 50 or clearance differential, and he ought to a bit more.

IF Adelaide are to win the 2025 premiership it's going to be mostly won in their defence and midfield. Their offence is potent enough.

There isn't any upside to Rankine's suspension. We lose one of our best game breakers coming up to finals, which are won by your best players.

With the midfield, it's possible, though I doubt there is a whole lot that can be done. Midfield is a player quality thing first and foremost, not so much structural and whilst we've usually been competitive, this group has shown a few times that it can be smacked there for a quarter. Unfortunately, the answer is Matt Crouch and it seems like his body isn't going to be right for finals, though we could potentially say "**** it, Dan Curtin time" and use Dowling to a full time wing to allow Curtin to be a 70% inside mid.

The inside 50 differential is a one off though. We've usually won that stat (noting we're currently third in inside 50 differential), hence the lack of concern. That said, if we're going to win it, it's going to be entirely on our defense being lights out for three games (we're not winning it if we lose the QF). It is the best defense in football at the moment, at least...

 

[PerthBoy86]

There isn't any upside to Rankine's suspension. We lose one of our best game breakers coming up to finals, which are won by your best players.

With the midfield, it's possible, though I doubt there is a whole lot that can be done. Midfield is a player quality thing first and foremost, not so much structural and whilst we've usually been competitive, this group has shown a few times that it can be smacked there for a quarter. Unfortunately, the answer is Matt Crouch and it seems like his body isn't going to be right for finals, though we could potentially say "**** it, Dan Curtin time" and use Dowling to a full time wing to allow Curtin to be a 70% inside mid.

The inside 50 differential is a one off though. We've usually won that stat (noting we're currently third in inside 50 differential), hence the lack of concern. That said, if we're going to win it, it's going to be entirely on our defense being lights out for three games (we're not winning it if we lose the QF). It is the best defense in football at the moment, at least...

Well a silver lining, at least. Izak definitely does add that x factor in the midfield with his cleanness and ability to get it out, so I think you need some speed in there. Crouch is more a contested inside mid isn't he?

Yes, as they say defence wins you premierships. Melbourne 2021 and Collingwood 2023 were defence first, and not that threatening up forward in themselves. Anyone who thinks the Crows are somehow no chance because of this hasn't watched them this year. If I had to put a % or odds on it, I think I'd say they go from 30% to 20-25%. The betting odds fairly reflect it too I think. It's a genuine 3 horse race imo.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Well a silver lining, at least. Izak definitely does add that x factor in the midfield with his cleanness and ability to get it out, so I think you need some speed in there. Crouch is more a contested inside mid isn't he?

Yes, as they say defence wins you premierships. Melbourne 2021 and Collingwood 2023 were defence first, and not that threatening up forward in themselves. Anyone who thinks the Crows are somehow no chance because of this hasn't watched them this year. If I had to put a % or odds on it, I think I'd say they go from 30% to 20-25%. The betting odds fairly reflect it too I think. It's a genuine 3 horse race imo.

Crouch is ruled out for the season ongoing hip soreness. Even a fully fit Crouch is not the answer I think. Berry has stepped into his role and is playing career best footy.
Interesting changes this week vs NM.
Billy Dowling is coming in for his 1st game of the year after killing it in the middle over the past few weeks and Sid Draper is also getting a Guernsey to see what he can do. It seems Crow's coaching staff are doing some tinkering with the list before finals.
At the very least it has bouyed the AFC BF board with some good news this week for a change.
If those 2 young boys can impress against North it may shape the finals team.

 

[Golumless]

Well a silver lining, at least. Izak definitely does add that x factor in the midfield with his cleanness and ability to get it out, so I think you need some speed in there. Crouch is more a contested inside mid isn't he?

Yes, as they say defence wins you premierships. Melbourne 2021 and Collingwood 2023 were defence first, and not that threatening up forward in themselves. Anyone who thinks the Crows are somehow no chance because of this hasn't watched them this year. If I had to put a % or odds on it, I think I'd say they go from 30% to 20-25%. The betting odds fairly reflect it too I think. It's a genuine 3 horse race imo.

Nah it's not a speed problem, it's a meat and potatoes problem, especially as Adelaide has a rather quick midfield. Take Adelaide's midfield at the moment, Peatling averages 4.8 Cl (1.5 CC), Soligo is 4.5 Cl (1.7 CC), Dawson 4.4 Cl (2.1 CC) and Berry is ~ 4 Cl (> 1.8 CC). We don't have any high volume clearance winners in our lineup at the moment. This problem is worsened by two of our four inside mids aren't productive at stoppage clearances in Berry and Dawson, which is the area Collingwood (and others, such as Port and Brisbane) have smacked us in. The only solace is this has typically happened when we've ran a spare defender, so it hasn't done a lot of damage, but it also comes from the spare defender as we're not overloading on stoppage clearances to get around the lack of capable contested midfielders.

In part this is why we ran into the same situation Collingwood hit with Naicos when we put Rankine into the inside midfield for large stretches in games. We didn't have the players who could take the lionshare of clearances and release Rankine as an in/out mid regularly; especially in stoppage clearances as Rankine was our most productive ball winner in those scenarios with Crouch out. Matt was the answer to this problem (replacing Berry), but the body isn't willing. I suppose we're hoping Curtin is able to be that high-volume clearance winner now.

I'd agree with those odds. I probably had Adelaide at 40% beforehand (mainly between us and Brisbane, seeing one of us probably rolls Geelong at home and at full strength) due to the mixture of defensive power and match winners, but losing Rankine pushes it back to that genuine 3 horse race scenario.

 

[Mr.X]

There have just been too many times when collingwood looked awful in the second half of the home and away only to fire up in the finals. They are going in massively underrated.

Pies had their measure easily and Crows didn’t look like they were going to win.

They are looking like a big chance for straight set exit

 

[Macca180]

no

 

[voorhees]

things were looking so sweet for them just a month and a bit ago.
confident and eye on the prize.
Unfortunately things have slowed down at the wrong time of the year.
They let themselves down in that first final and have no one to blame but themselves.

 

[Mr.X]

It’s been a phenomenal turnaround to likely win the minor premiership, but for me, the Crows (along with the Cats) are giving off serious straight sets vibes.

Crows yes, looking like it'll be straight sets for them.

Cats look primed to win the flag

 

[kreuze_missile]

Crows yes, looking like it'll be straight sets for them.

Cats look primed to win the flag

Cats will get done next week.

 

[Mr Meow]

It's quite pleasing the way that this year's Crows have been dispensing with hoodoos - Collingwood, the MCG, the SCG, winning close matches.

In the end a decent hoodoo collection but no finals victories.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Just proves the theory that a flag winning side needs to have tasted finals defeat in the years prior.

Adelaide should learn from this and bounce back next year

 

[Gavin Excell]

Their midfield looked painfully thin last night

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Their list just isnt very good, not even top 8 worthy. They're incredibly lucky to have a coach like Nicks that worked absolute miracles to get them in to two home finals, but the players let him down when it mattered.

 

[SSSSSS]

It's just not a flag winning midfield let alone a finals winning midfield.

I've got no idea why a talent like Draper rots in the SANFL or a freak athlete with skills like Curtin doesn't get a chance.

Instead Nicks throws some reliable warhorses in Laird who can find the ball but just give it back to the oppo.

 

[My Tilly]

Put Curtin in the midfield next season and they have immediately fixed half the problem.

 

[Bluelegs]

Has anyone checked on Rankine's mental health? Surely the AFL can find a way to let him play in the grand final.

 

[Peters_Nuts]

Has anyone checked on Rankine's mental health? Surely the AFL can find a way to let him play in the grand final.

Why didn’t Adelaide simply win 2 games so he could play instead of going out in straight sets? Are they stupid?

 

[nineteen eighty]

Cats will get done next week.

I can't see the Hawks beating the Cats but either way, I see the winner of the GF coming from this prelim. Adelaide's form has been franked. Collingwood beat them through pressure only. Pressure alone will keep you in matches for a long time but you need to be able to kick 90 - 100 points as well as defend. Collingwood don't have that in them. They kicked their goals in the Adelaide game through forward pressure. That's not good enough to win a prelim. Both Geelong and Hawthorn have multiple goals in them through D transition. Along with pressure...including forward pressure.

As for Adelaide, they have some serious mental hurdles to get over. In addition to some significant improvement with their ball movement. The positives are they have a gun defense and forward line as a starting point.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Collingwood 2023 were defence first, and not that threatening up forward in themselves.

The Pies had the third best attack through the season, trailing the best by 38 points, and had 30 scoring shots on Grand Final day.

If that’s not that threatening then you have a pretty ridiculous bar for it.

 

[joe444]

It's only when I watched them closely over the past 8 quarters that I realised how many very, very ordinary footballers they are carrying. And some very buggered ones.

I actually think they did incredibly well to mask their flaws for so long, but last night it was obvious how one-dimensional they were and how so few levers they actually had to pull. Plan B seems to be to swap Rankine and Dawson, and that's it.

My team is obsessed with resting players and it seems to be paying off now. I get the sense that nobody at Adelaide was "managed" during the year. They looked utterly stuffed (unforgivable management) and utterly ordinary.

And man, did some players put huge dints in their reputations in the last fortnight. Thilthorpe hears footsteps, Dawson burns teammates, the defence seem to HATE each other and can't stop bitching openly on field. The latter has been happening all year (Josh Worrell, I'm looking at you).

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Weird. At the beginning of the year, pundits were talking up the lists of Collingwood, Brisbane and Geelong, but it’s Adelaide that’s top. How did that happen?

Weird, Adelaide were 1st, but then lost their home semi-final. How could that happen? I thought the minor premiership means an instant premiership...

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Adelaide 2025

I guess we'll be having a Crows imagination premiership, this year.

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Yeah, Crows play crap footy, hopeless attack, have done nothing to upgrade the defense, rank low in both for and against, rubbish %, none of their players seem interested in the gameolan, none seem to play by team rules, none seem to care less.

Yep, that's exactly what happened in finals.