Carlton or GWS in 2024?

Who will finish higher in 2024?


  • Total voters
    122

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When other sides win close games it is an art form and something they have practiced. When Carlton win close games it is put down to luck. But we were not considered unlucky when we kicked ourselves out of the 8 in 2022.
I'm fully on board that when other sides win close games it is luck too. With a very occasional exception, a win by a goal or less (a one score game) could have gone either way. It's why percentage is more predictive of the next year's results than W/L. Having said that, I only see three games in the regular season within that margin and Carlton went 2-0-1 in them. By comparison GWS had five and went 4-1 in them.

When you get to the <= 2 goal margins it changes up (Carlton gets two extra wins, GWS gets three extra losses and only one win) but that's no longer a one score game.
 

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that can be inaccurate.

Dockers got 15 wins and a draw in 2022. They also got a finals win. Their reward? one of the tougher draws at the start of 2023. they had both 2022 grand final sides in cats and swans sides twice.

I didnt predict the cats and swans to drop in 2023.
Exactly right which is why those pre season fixture difficulty rankings are inaccurate - because of the movement of teams on the ladder year to year. The stat above is more accurate because it is based on what actually ended up happening in season
 
Exactly right which is why those pre season fixture difficulty rankings are inaccurate - because of the movement of teams on the ladder year to year. The stat above is more accurate because it is based on what actually ended up happening in season
But even looking at the ladder positions at the end of the season doesn't show the full picture.

Is playing Port Adelaide in Melbourne with 7 changes from the previous week the same as playing them in Adelaide at the height of their 13 game winning streak?

Is playing Collingwood without Moore, De Goey and N. Daicos in round 23 after they've locked away top 2 the same as playing them with a full strength team mid season when they are going full throttle to lock away top 4 as early as possible?
 
But even looking at the ladder positions at the end of the season doesn't show the full picture.

Is playing Port Adelaide in Melbourne with 7 changes from the previous week the same as playing them in Adelaide at the height of their 13 game winning streak?

Is playing Collingwood without Moore, De Goey and N. Daicos in round 23 after they've locked away top 2 the same as playing them with a full strength team mid season when they are going full throttle to lock away top 4 as early as possible?
I agree with this - nothing is ever going to fully take into account context within each game. But I still think it is a better measure than the pre-season ones that come out.
 
You had a 5 goal head start and then got absolutely trounced, back to the drawing board or this will be the peak 😆
We showed up when it really mattered.
Your mob will lose comfortably on Saturday and tbh u gys shouldve really lost to Melbourne in the Qualifying final
 
I feel like GWS will always be up there for a while but never quite get the job done. Not enough truly team first spirit and culture there yet, still perhaps a team of champions as opposed to a champion team.

Carlton, who knows based on 21st century history, but I feel we're no longer that same old team. Just need to improve some weak spots of the list over the off season.
 
When will people realise a close win is still a win. Such a dumb theory that close wins are luck
Ultimately a win is a win.

The rest is just dick measuring.
 

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It's an interesting comparison.
They were very closely matched in the 2nd half the year. This is the ladder for the 2nd half of the year.
The two best defences. The 2nd and 3rd best offences. Even all of our wins and losses were against similarly placed sides.
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We showed up when it really mattered.
Your mob will lose comfortably on Saturday and tbh u gys shouldve really lost to Melbourne in the Qualifying final

At what point have Collingwood not shown up ?

You won in the last minute against Melbourne
 
The fact we're in the GF, and you're not, is evidence of who showed up when it really mattered son 🙄
Yes, I don't know about you, but I'd much rather have won those meaningless late season games against Carlton and Hawthorn, to finish 3 games and percentage ahead of second place (instead of just the one game and percentage), risking injured players and therefore our preparation for the finals series...
 
Yes, I don't know about you, but I'd much rather have won those meaningless late season games against Carlton and Hawthorn, to finish 3 games and percentage ahead of second place (instead of just the one game and percentage), risking injured players and therefore our preparation for the finals series...
"When it really mattered" lol, only a Carlton supporter could come up with something like that
 
I feel like GWS will always be up there for a while but never quite get the job done. Not enough truly team first spirit and culture there yet, still perhaps a team of champions as opposed to a champion team.

Carlton, who knows based on 21st century history, but I feel we're no longer that same old team. Just need to improve some weak spots of the list over the off season.
I've heard the below a few times this week, I think it's a solid point...

Pies and Lions, PF losers last year, traded aggressively to address specific needs...here we are.

I hope very much we are similarly prepared to make a few hard calls if the opportunity presents itself.
 
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