jackcass
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V
SATURDAY 1.45 pm May 29 AEDT at the MCG (CV19 Impacted)
Head to Head odds for those so inclined:
Geelong: $1.15
Collingwood: $5.50
TV
Live on Fox Footy and Kayo
Radio
3AW; ABC; MMM
The Game:
A Saturday afternoon game at the G against a team that has become a significant rival, what more could the faithful want. Well maybe, the capacity to be there. And maybe a turning in the respective fortunes of both sides. The Pies coming off a near miss against the Power, while the Cats have hardly missed a beat and deserve their spot in the top 4.
Last 5 encounters:
2020 SF – expunged from memory, didn’t happen
2020 R7 – Pies 57 v Cats 35 (Perth Stadium)
2019 QF – Pies 61 v Cats 51 (MCG)
2019 R1 – Pies 65 v Cats 72 (MCG)
2018 R8 - Pies 45 v Cats 66 (MCG)
Changes from that aberration game:
Cats (7 changes):
OUT: Duncan, Dangerfield, Simpson, Stanley, Miers, Ablett, Taylor, O’Connor
IN: Narkle, Higgins, Smith, Atkins, Close, Cameron, Ratugolea, Holmes
Pies (7 changes)
OUT: Treloar, Elliott, Greenwood, Thomas, Stephenson, Cox, Adams
IN: Sidebottom, Poulter, Wilson, C Brown, Murphy, Bianco, Sier
The Teams:
Collingwood:
FB [16] Chris Mayne,[23] Jordan Roughead,[37] Brayden Maynard
HB [3] Isaac Quaynor,[30] Darcy Moore,[9] John Noble
C [32] Will Hoskin-Elliott,[7] Josh Daicos,[27] Caleb Poulter
HF [22] Steele Sidebottom,[14] Darcy Cameron,[10] Scott Pendlebury
FF [2] Jordan De Goey,[41] Brody Mihocek,[8] Trent Bianco
FOL [4] Brodie Grundy,[36] Brayden Sier,[25] Jack Crisp
IC [17] Callum L. Brown,[44] Jack Madgen,[28] Nathan Murphy,[12] Tom Wilson
EMG [11] Mark Keane,[20] Will Kelly,[18] Finlay Macrae,[1] Jay Rantall
Geelong Cats:
FB [25] Lachie Henderson,[46] Mark Blicavs,[38] Jack Henry
HB [24] Jed Bews,[44] Tom Stewart,[8] Jake Kolodjashnij
C [7] Isaac Smith,[29] Cameron Guthrie,[27] Sam Menegola
HF [3] Brandan Parfitt,[5] Jeremy Cameron,[30] Tom Atkins
FF [4] Shaun Higgins,[26] Tom Hawkins,[23] Gary Rohan
FOL [17] Esava Ratugolea,[19] Quinton Narkle,[14] Joel Selwood
IC [2] Zach Tuohy,[9] Max Holmes,[40] Luke Dahlhaus,[45] Brad Close
EMG [18] Charlie Constable,[6] Jordan Clark,[39] Zach Guthrie,[1] Rhys Stanley
Significant absences:
Pies: Thomas, Adams, Cox, McCreery, Howe, T Brown, McInnes, Thomas, Greenwood, Elliott
Cats: Dangerfield, Duncan, O'Connor, Simpson, and a couple of nobodies no self respecting Pies supporter would know
The Pies:
What a year it has been and I think I share my sense of trepidation at what this game could deliver with most. At least the coup can slip to the back-burner for a couple of hours while we watch our team take on the Pussies. Hope David gets the memo and isn’t planning on working the concourse for additional signatures.
We’ve seen across the season that we’re capable of some good footy, but struggle to deliver that across 4 quarters. Some suggest that’s because the coach opts to completely change the way we approach the game at these changes, the more rational accept we lack the cattle to sustain it.
We’re a team trying to introduce the next generation in a hurry, 7 debutants tells the story. The Pies lose Adams and Tyler Brown. We also lose McCreery who along with Poulter, has been one of the pinup boys for the new recruits. To the chagrin of many, JT will miss, while Cal Brown wins a reprieve. The loss of McCreery hurts as he’s been our most consistent small forward since his debut. To offset all these disappointing outs, we at least get the pleasure of welcoming back Madge. Hopefully he’s found some form over the last fortnight.
Bring on Bianco. He has had a few weeks at VFL level since returning from injury. He was looking very promising prior to the injury interrupting his season. Actually played in the practice game down at the cattery so won’t be unfamiliar with them or the way they play. Hopefully he has a ripper game.
Sier, for those with more than a passing interest, has finally won a recall. I assume he’ll just have to cancel the hastily convened basketball game with mates, and the weekends paintball booking.
The Cats:
Have won 4 of their last 5 so are in good form and seem to be more than coping with the longer term absence of Danger. We can only hope losing Duncan and Cam Guthrie pushes them to breaking point. Holmes returns for his 2nd game of the year and he has big shoes to fill.
The Cats are the epitome of the “big arsed” teams that were popular not that long ago, they’re powerful, and they’re quick. They’re also the senior citizens of the league with their team last week an average age of 28 years 0 months, and 145.6 games. That’s old. Really old. Like ancient old. But with that age comes experience and all their major off-season additions in Higgins, Smith, and Cameron have been contributing.
The Cats are a team that likes to possess and control the footy. They’re happy to be patient, and it’s a plan that seems to work with the experience they have on board. They’re ranked 1 for disposals and 3 for marks, all of which drives their top 3-4 for DE%.
Is this a danger (pardon any pun) game for Cats?
The Cats faithful will have already checked this game of as a win so for the Pies to get up in this would be a real slap in the face to them. I’m all for doling out those slaps.
Key battles
Rucks:
Grundy v Blicavs
If the Cats have an Achilles heel, it’s in the ruck. Grundy is clearly the best ruckman in this game, elite for hit outs and hit outs to advantage per game. But what his opponent lacks in terms of his ruck craft, he more than compensates with his around the ground impact. Grundy will not only need to dominate the hit outs, but he’ll need to also contribute at the fall of the footy, and around the ground, if we are to have any chance of beating the Cats. Don’t be surprised if Stanley gets a last minute call up.
Midfield:
This is almost becoming a battle of who isn’t there, but I think it’s now an area where we can gain an advantage. On top of Danger, they now lose Duncan and potentially Cam Guthrie. Their loss is softened somewhat by the loss of Adams.
The Cats rank 2nd for total clearances (Pies 12th). But it’s the around the ground stoppages where much of their good work gets done (ranked 1st Pies 11th) while there isn’t a lot of difference from the centre. We need to minimise that clearance differential.
Hopefully we see Pendles back in the midfield from the opening bounce. It’s where he belongs. We may see Bianco (our 7th debutante) get a few midfield rotations which has to be a good thing.
Defence:
Roughy v Hawkins
While the addition of Cameron makes them more than a 1 man show up forward, it’s still the Hawk that sets the tone. Roughy needs to play out of his skin to get this done. Moore is likely to get Cameron so there’ll be little opportunity for him to sag off and offer support, and we don’t have the luxury of a Howe or Langdon to offer that. The best way to control Hawkins remains impacting the ball movement into their F50. If he’s getting bullet passes onto his chest then nobody will stop him.
And let’s not forget Cameron. He’s averaging 3.2 goals a game, has a bag of 6 and 3 bags of 3 to his name already this season, and he hasn’t even really hit his straps yet. I think Moore gets the job and it should be an intriguing battle.
The remainder of the Cats forward line is more workmanlike than stars. They work hard to keep the footy inside their F50 though and that gives repeat scoring opportunities to the likes of Hawkins and Cameron. Rohan is more hot and cold than a menopausal woman, but he is capable of the sublime, and along with Cameron and Hawkins is in their top 3 goal kickers YTD. Dahlhaus and Close just bit players, but they bring the heat and can’t be taken lightly.
Forward:
Cameron/Checkers/JDG v Henderson/Blicavs/Kolodjashnij
Blicavs in the ruck leaves Henderson as the only genuine tall defender left. Kolodjashnij (193cm) and Stewart (190cm) give them some flexibility and are good matchups for Checkers and JDG. We need Cameron, Checkers, and JDG to all have significant wins in those contests to be any chance, especially now that we’ve lost McCreery for the game.
Milestones:
Darcy Moore plays his 100th game. May it be memorable for all the right reasons.
Prediction:
Head says Cats by plenty, heart says Pies to go 1 better than last week and hang on for the unlikeliest of wins.
I’ll go with the heart, Pies snatch it by 1 point in a thriller. Start the Roll.
Go Pies!
Sadly now, we don’t get to marvel in the wonder of the victory while we watch our VFL side take on the Cats. Was looking forward to the double header.
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