Preview Changes and pre-match discussion vs Melbourne

[DuckYeah]

We are $4.55 to Melbourne's $1.20 this week. FFS, do the bookmakers know something we don't and Xerri and Larkey will both miss? I know Melbourne has been doing ok lately but these odds are crazy given there is half a game between the two sides, we're 2 out of 2 at the MCG this season and we've beaten them by 10 goals and have done ok against them last couple of years

Lol why does that surprise you? Other than clearances we are completely shit at everything else?

 

[Rod Stroker]

Lol drop this wage thief

Harsh on Melksham, he's performed well in recent weeks.

 

[DuckYeah]

As a Melbourne supporter I fell over when I saw those odds.
Was expecting North to be about $2.20

We've done stuff all lately to deserve to be $1.20.

And it sounds like North will have an abundance of inclusions this week and Xerri and Larkey will surely play.

We’ll play a half, like we did against yas the first time, whether that half puts the sword to yas is up for debate.

All Melbourne need to do is defend the corridor and make sure the ball is spilled out across norths half forward line and thats 4 points.

There is the other factor that “we have nothing to play for” which is what our coach used in an excuse for last season’s end of year belting

 

[Frank Thring]

Lol why does that surprise you? Other than clearances we are completely shit at everything else?

We're pretty good at turnovers and missed tackles

 

[Luke72]

out umpire 35

in someone who doesn’t have a hatred for north

Who was that turkey? It was the most bizarre performance I can recall.

 

[King Corey]

Reckon we'll pump them.

Tend to agree.

Think we'll lose the AFL match though.

 

[kanga kanga kanga]

Who was that turkey? It was the most bizarre performance I can recall.

peter bailes

 

[Makeshift Park]

We are $4.55 to Melbourne's $1.20 this week. FFS, do the bookmakers know something we don't and Xerri and Larkey will both miss? I know Melbourne has been doing ok lately but these odds are crazy given there is half a game between the two sides, we're 2 out of 2 at the MCG this season and we've beaten them by 10 goals and have done ok against them last couple of years

Love our club but I think the odds are short.

We’ve been pumped by 40+ three times in the past 6 weeks. Dees haven’t once. LDU’s out. Kozzie’s looking like a superstar.

If you weigh the probability of a North win something like

• 40% derived from a long term baseline of the past three-five years,
• another 30% from recent form over the past six weeks, and then
• the rest a combination of injuries, venue, motivation and other factors

I’d have us close to $5.

 

[Wayne Campbell]

Our Cumulative margins for games in terms of our break versus our opponents:

Shorter -289
Equal -146
Longer +71

 

[Wayne Campbell]

Our Cumulative margins for games in terms of our break versus our opponents:

Shorter -289
Equal -146
Longer +71

Then again for number of days break:

5 -52

6 -198

7 -159

8+ +44

 

[Makeshift Park]

Then again for number of days break:

5 -52

6 -198

7 -159

8+ +44

Very small sample size on the 8+ though.

Ie

Melbourne - won by 59pts
Port Adelaide - lost by 9
Brisbane - draw
WC - won by 10

Any others?

 

[DuckYeah]

a chance to move up the ladder with this game, and if Saints lose too then we are out of the bottom 4... huge game! we really need to turn up for this

you know what this means

 

[Chip Scab1]

Easy selection this week, just the 6 changes.

Out: Stephens, Daniel, Scott (omitted), LDU, Xerri, Larkey (injured)

In: Banch, Payne, Comben, Goad, Darling, McDonald

B: Mcaint Logue Comben
HB: Harv WDawson Hardeman
C: Hansen Parker FOS
HF: Curtis Maley Zurhaar
F: Payne Duursma Simpkin
R: Goad Sheezel McKercher
I: Phillip Powell Darling Pink
Sub: Banch

Em: Goater, MWhitlock, Wardlaw, LDU, Xerri, Larkey

We've come along way in a short amount of time, we've lost 4 of our best 7 players, yet funnily enough - I'm still excited that our young lads get to have a run around on the 'G and if they have a red hot go, might just pull off our best win in 'ken years.

 

[shintemaster]

Won't be as easy as last time but IMO we suit the MCG and we match up well against Melbourne either way. Those odds are very generous IMO.

 

[Event Horizon]

Love our club but I think the odds are short.

We’ve been pumped by 40+ three times in the past 6 weeks. Dees haven’t once. LDU’s out. Kozzie’s looking like a superstar.

If you weigh the probability of a North win something like

• 40% derived from a long term baseline of the past three-five years,
• another 30% from recent form over the past six weeks, and then
• the rest a combination of injuries, venue, motivation and other factors

I’d have us close to $5.

The current odds of them being $1.22 basically suggests if we played them 10 times in a row they would win 8 of them. I think this is off the mark by a long way.

 

[Karanicolas]

Won't be as easy as last time but IMO we suit the MCG and we match up well against Melbourne either way. Those odds are very generous IMO.

That’s what I thought about the odds for the Hawthorn game … very generous …

What did I learn … the gambling professionals know better than this schmuck!!

 

[ferball]

That’s what I thought about the odds for the Hawthorn game … very generous …

What did I learn … the gambling professionals know better than this schmuck!!

Hawthorn are 5th on the ladder, %age out of third place and they played us at a ground where they beat us by 20 goals less than a year ago.

Melbourne are not in that situation.

They should be probably favorites because we may have lost two or three of our most important players but I would have expected odds like $2 - $3.50. Or $1.50 - $2.20.

 

[Chadwiko]

 

[Makeshift Park]

The current odds of them being $1.22 basically suggests if we played them 10 times in a row they would win 8 of them. I think this is off the mark by a long way.

Betting markets systemically undervalue favourites and overvalue long shots.

In the past five years we’ve played 106 games and won 16 of them.

Our H2h odds should be at least 30% weighted by that long term record.

That round two dees game was a massive outlier against the context.

I believe we can win but it’d be from the position of underdog status.

 

[Karanicolas]

Hawthorn are 5th on the ladder, %age out of third place and they played us at a ground where they beat us by 20 goals less than a year ago.

Melbourne are not in that situation.

They should be probably favorites because we may have lost two or three of our most important players but I would have expected odds like $2 - $3.50. Or $1.50 - $2.20.

I did place the wager on the Hawthorn game towards the end of a work function as a Hawks supporter was telling me that they were going to smash us …

Was hoping to cash out after a strong first half effort … lol!!

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

Beating Melbourne is a simple (but challenging) four step plan:

1)Nullify Gawn as much as possible. I’m keen to see how CCJ goes in the ruck to compete physically.

2)Own the midfield. Time for Powell, Simpkin, Sheezel, Wardlaw and Phillips to make good on their potential and take it to a pretty in form, gun Demons midfield.

3)Shut down Lever. Play Parker on him and tell Luke to play as dirty as he can. Really antagonise the prick.

4)Try to break even vs Pickett. Going into the midfield, I wouldn’t mind seeing FOS have a go at shutting him down. Hardeman or McDonald on him when inside 50.

On the flip side, I am really interested to find out how they will go with our three pronged attack of Curtis, Zurhaar and Larkey.

As much as we have huge outs, we really must be in this aiming to win it. Doing so will reconfirm the direction we are headed in. Losing badly will help to erase the few strides forward we have taken.

 

[Spud11]

Wouldn’t mind seeing CCJ come in. Whether that’s for Larkey and/or instead of Darling, wouldn’t mind seeing it.

 

[Joshen]

Very curious to see how our forward line functions without Larkey. He has been the focal point for years.

 

[Spud11]

Beating Melbourne is a simple (but challenging) four step plan:

1)Nullify Gawn as much as possible. I’m keen to see how CCJ goes in the ruck to compete physically.

2)Own the midfield. Time for Powell, Simpkin, Sheezel, Wardlaw and Phillips to make good on their potential and take it to a pretty in form, gun Demons midfield.

3)Shut down Lever. Play Parker on him and tell Luke to play as dirty as he can. Really antagonise the prick.

4)Try to break even vs Pickett. Going into the midfield, I wouldn’t mind seeing FOS have a go at shutting him down. Hardeman or McDonald on him when inside 50.

On the flip side, I am really interested to find out how they will go with our three pronged attack of Curtis, Zurhaar and Larkey.

As much as we have huge outs, we really must be in this aiming to win it. Doing so will reconfirm the direction in. Loosing badly will help to erase the few strides forward we have taken.

All of this.

I think, injuries or not, if we start losing winnable games now to the end of the year and the club points to “effort” and the fact that we “have nothing to play for” (…unless we’re suddenly playing for pride when pick 1 is on the table), I will:

• take up smoking
• point to the Ratten patch of competitiveness 2 years ago
• check out completely until regime change

 

[Spud11]

Very curious to see how our forward line functions without Larkey. He has been the focal point for years.

I cast my mind back to 2007 when we lost Nathan Thompson.
“But where are we gonna get the goals from?”
Ah, but you see, now we have multiple avenues to goal. Multiple, unpredictable, delicious avenues to the big sticks.
We made a prelim that year. I loved Thommo but crikey.

Is it a coincidence that when Larkey seems to kick more than 5, we don’t always do well?
To quote Korn, 1994 (unsure if they were talking about North): “It’s so predictable”.

So predictable.