Prediction Changes Dogs vs. Seagulls (Saints) at Docklands (15/07/22)

[Dogs Rule]

 

[Libba39]

Just for today I've changed my name by deed poll to Tu-Ruc Shakur

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Good thing you were wearing a helmet - oh, wait…

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Just found a positive of losing last years Grand Final. We avoided being the first team in history miss finals twice after winning the flag the previous season.

 

[adogsfan5]

Bruce is going to need some genuine assistance. Really hope Tim and Jamarra spend plenty of time inside 50.

Regarding Hannan - if he plays back again, I’ll be furious.

 

[DognBones]

Bruce is going to need some genuine assistance. Really hope Tim and Jamarra spend plenty of time inside 50.

Regarding Hannan - if he plays back again, I’ll be furious.

You will need a bucket load of anger pills then.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

You will need a bucket load of anger pills then.

Yep. Just because it didn’t work the first time is no reason not to give it another shot… then another…

 

[hutchy31]

Not confident but surely a midfield of

Macrae
Bont
Smith
Libba
Treloar
Dunkley

Can get it done over

Steele
Crouch
Gresham
Jones
Byrnes
Billings

Theoretically, until you realise that midfield got thumped by something like:

Warner
Mills
McInerney
Parker
Rowbottom
Gulden

Plus English regressed (again) against bloody Peter Ladhams, and now we're going in against a genuinely good ruck pairing.

I'm clinging to the hope that this is now a genuine must-win and the boys will come out firing, but on the flip side with those ins/outs something like $2.10 for the saints looks pretty tasty.

 

[Proffessor]

Don't see how it is such a crucial game, they are cooked mate. Would rather watch Buku play than O'Brien or Cordy, rest of the season is all players like him, and seeing glimpses of what they can do.

The biggest mistake that our club consistently makes is that it prioritises the future over the present with our team selection.

If we hadn’t we would be in much better shape. Buku and players like him shouldn’t be gifted games for their development, they should get them when their presence would likely make us stronger.

BTW so far Buku has looked much better as a forward than he has as a defender.

 

[hutchy31]

The biggest mistake that our club consistently makes is that it prioritises the future over the present with our team selection.

If we hadn’t we would be in much better shape. Buku and players like him shouldn’t be gifted games for their development, they should get them when their presence would likely make us stronger.

BTW so far Buku has looked much better as a forward than he has as a defender.

I can see your point, although imo it's more that selection integrity appears (at least from the outside and imo) to vary depending on the player(s) involved. Not sure what more we were expecting from Bedendo yet he's out after a game or two, when others (we know who they are) get extended runs without appearing to warrant them. Schache's frustrating but he's been thrown around everywhere without a decent run at it, and nobody will convince me that we gave Lewis Young a fair crack at it.

I think you could argue that the prioritisation of the future over the present is also a core tenet of our list management. We have traded in ready-made AFL players (Bruce, Keath, Duryea, Crozier etc.), but rarely at the expense of our high-end draft capital. We've traded down a couple of times (most notable out of the pick that Carlton took Charlie Curnow to pick up Dunkley and Collins), but with the exception of Boyd - where our hand might have been forced with the Griffen situation - our firsts don't seem to be on the table.

Richmond gave up a high first for Prestia, knowing they needed another midfield bull. Melbourne gave up first rounders to snare May and Lever, and from memory the hawks didn't value draft capital when they were in the window (although those drafts were compromised by expansion, so late first rounders were more like mid-seconds so maybe not as valuable).

I'd be critical of our approach on face value, as imo you should try and maximinse your opportunity to win when you're up there, except I wonder if it's actually an agreed strategy to avoid bottoming out. Looking at North's predicament maybe it's preferable to play it safe at the draft, pick best available and try and shape the list around that when you're a smaller club. Or maybe we have offered first rounders for high-quality players in positions of need but they haven't wanted to come or the clubs involved flat-out rejected the offers.

As with almost anything else we debate on here, we're not in possession of all the facts so difficult to assess. But yes, appearing to develop players in the AFL when your list profile means you should really be challenging for top 4 doesn't feel right.

 

[LondonBulldog]

Our team selection never fails to amaze\disappoint.

Going into this crucial game our MC had two big issues to contend with.
1. Our backline has recently been seriously dysfunctional.
2. We have a bunch of senior players including two tall forwards go out with COVID.

Do we bring back Tim O'Brien or Zaine Cordy, fit and seasoned AFL players who can both play at either end if required? No, of course not.
We bring in Buku Khamis, who has potential but has regularly looked lost in his few games at senior level, continue to keep faith in Ryan Gardner who has pretty much looked lost at senior level for most of his career, and bring back Josh Bruce for his 1st game coming of an ACL and recent hamstring injury.

Talk about taking a low percentage option.

We need our midfield to dominate to keep the ball out of our backline, hope English feels better this week and that Bruce comes back strong 1st up after his long spell.

Cordy is past it. O'brien has the worst 1 on 1 percentage in the AFL this year. Neither deserve a game. Cordy will give his all, yet his all is not good enough. Buka is the future, has the athleticism to take marks and intercept. They need to show faith in him.

 

[BEaston]

I can see your point, although imo it's more that selection integrity appears (at least from the outside and imo) to vary depending on the player(s) involved. Not sure what more we were expecting from Bedendo yet he's out after a game or two, when others (we know who they are) get extended runs without appearing to warrant them. Schache's frustrating but he's been thrown around everywhere without a decent run at it, and nobody will convince me that we gave Lewis Young a fair crack at it.

I think you could argue that the prioritisation of the future over the present is also a core tenet of our list management. We have traded in ready-made AFL players (Bruce, Keath, Duryea, Crozier etc.), but rarely at the expense of our high-end draft capital. We've traded down a couple of times (most notable out of the pick that Carlton took Charlie Curnow to pick up Dunkley and Collins), but with the exception of Boyd - where our hand might have been forced with the Griffen situation - our firsts don't seem to be on the table.

Richmond gave up a high first for Prestia, knowing they needed another midfield bull. Melbourne gave up first rounders to snare May and Lever, and from memory the hawks didn't value draft capital when they were in the window (although those drafts were compromised by expansion, so late first rounders were more like mid-seconds so maybe not as valuable).

I'd be critical of our approach on face value, as imo you should try and maximinse your opportunity to win when you're up there, except I wonder if it's actually an agreed strategy to avoid bottoming out. Looking at North's predicament maybe it's preferable to play it safe at the draft, pick best available and try and shape the list around that when you're a smaller club. Or maybe we have offered first rounders for high-quality players in positions of need but they haven't wanted to come or the clubs involved flat-out rejected the offers.

As with almost anything else we debate on here, we're not in possession of all the facts so difficult to assess. But yes, appearing to develop players in the AFL when your list profile means you should really be challenging for top 4 doesn't feel right.

We're not a trade or FA destination for high end players. Focusing on the getting the most talented players via the draft is the best way to ensure sustained success for us.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Argh, was looking like a good team until Naughton went out. Damn. Fingers crossed no more outs.

You'd think Sweet needs to lead ruck with this team. Bruce/Sweet/JUH is not really mobile enough to be particularly threatening and none of them are particularly strong stationary targets.

 

[doggies ftw]

Argh, was looking like a good team until Naughton went out. Damn. Fingers crossed no more outs.

You'd think Sweet needs to lead ruck with this team. Bruce/Sweet/JUH is not really mobile enough to be particularly threatening and none of them are particularly strong stationary targets.

You’d think so, can almost guarantee Sweet plays about 65% TOG with 50% of that time in the FP before the endless calls of Sweet & Timmy don’t work!!! All week

 

[hutchy31]

Argh, was looking like a good team until Naughton went out. Damn. Fingers crossed no more outs.

You'd think Sweet needs to lead ruck with this team. Bruce/Sweet/JUH is not really mobile enough to be particularly threatening and none of them are particularly strong stationary targets.

There's a version of tonight's game where our mids get on top, are kicking to a chaotic forward line that works because there's no Naughton to be the lightning rod and the Saints can't cope with the repeated entries. Lots of ground balls, crumbs, snaps and we kick a big score.

However, there's also a version (which may be more likely) where English is first ruck and the forward set up is as you've outlined. Sinclair walks the ball out of their backline and the Saints do something similar to Sydney last week, with King, Membrey and Marshall/Ryder taking mark after mark in our defensive 50.

 

[Golden_6]

You’d think so, can almost guarantee Sweet plays about 65% TOG with 50% of that time in the FP before the endless calls of Sweet & Timmy don’t work!!! All week

I'll be absolutely livid if we see Sweet sit at full forward like the WCE game and do nothing. Fair enough if we see Tim as the number 1 ruckman by himself but if we play them together, then Tim has to become the predominant forward.

 

[Unorth]

There is a possibility now, if even the slightest of chances, near impossible, maybe not this universe but in some parallel world, that the following plays out:

Sweet goes really well in the ruck and keeps his spot
Marra/Tim/Bruce fill their boots and make it hard to change

Naughton now has to return to the team with the forward line already filled with talls and a gaping hole in the backline…

 

[Dogsman16]

Recent history suggests that English will play the number one ruck role.

I’ve seen our forward line completely fall apart without Naughton (2021 swans game) when Jamarra, Bruce and Lewis Young

33

Lewis Young

Age

25

Ht

202cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.6

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

197.9

3star

D

4.0

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

1.0

1star

M

3.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

MG

26.0

1star

D

14.4

4star

K

8.2

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

6.4

5star

T

2.0

4star

MG

181.6

3star

played forward.

Interesting to see what happens tonight but St Kildas defence is depleted.

 

[Fossie 32]

Bevo at the selection table realising he has no choice but to play English and Sweet in the same team.

 

[ScottyDogg]

Who would have thought that Naughton getting Covid would save us????

I had sworn off watching the Dogs until we played two rucks (figured that would be next year after we sacked Bevo) but 7 days later and here we are.

 

[ScottyDogg]

There is a possibility now, if even the slightest of chances, near impossible, maybe not this universe but in some parallel world, that the following plays out:

Sweet goes really well in the ruck and keeps his spot
Marra/Tim/Bruce fill their boots and make it hard to change

Naughton now has to return to the team with the forward line already filled with talls and a gaping hole in the backline…

Post of the year contender. Let’s check back after the game.

 

[scooter600x]

BTW so far Buku has looked much better as a forward than he has as a defender.

I really don't think he has.

He had 1-2 good reserves game in a row as a forward and then got thrown forward in the AFL. He's been in the backline for nearly the whole time he's been with us and has looked better every time I've seen him. I like him there a lot more than O'Brien.

 

[Munnez]

Don't see how it is such a crucial game, they are cooked mate. Would rather watch Buku play than O'Brien or Cordy, rest of the season is all players like him, and seeing glimpses of what they can do.

No point looking back Cordy and O'Brien are known quantities. Let's find out if Buku can become a long term player or not

 

[Dog 36]

I really don't think he has.

He had 1-2 good reserves game in a row as a forward and then got thrown forward in the AFL. He's been in the backline for nearly the whole time he's been with us and has looked better every time I've seen him. I like him there a lot more than O'Brien.

Yep couple of good games in VFL not only was he thrown forward in AFL but also went into the ruck .

Play him and develop him as a defender

 

[Dogsman16]

For anyone out there holding a glimmer of hope about our season.

If there was ever a time for Jamarra to have a break out game. Nows the time.