Preview Changes/Preview – Round 13 v Collingwood (Big Freeze 9)

[BaliDemon]

Your insults are about as good as your team selections champ

“Champs” me. Woooooo.

Best hold your assessment on my team selection ‘til post game kimosabi.

 

[LuckyLee]

Without engaging too much in the pity party, and while I agree the Pies may have some important outs....

The Dees are missing their current BnF, AA, AFLCA Champion player who attends 6 more centre bounces per game than the next listed mid. I get that from a Collingwood perspective you might say 'De Goey's a good player, so is Oliver, so it's even' but it's simply not the reality in terms of importance and impact overall to the team. Collingwood have a far more balanced 22 from an impact perspective than Melbourne do. The gap between the impact of Melbourne's best players and their role players is massive compared to what it is for Collingwood.

Just to use CBAs as a highlight - the gap between Collingwood's number 1 CBA player and their 7th is 11. The gap for Melbourne is 17.

Melbourne's also missing Petty, which means they're forced to use Tomlinson in the backline, or if Petty was to play forward, the Dees will be replacing him with Joel Smith in the forward line (along side a 20 year old, 10-gamer). This also highlights the gap of talent there - one player out and all of a sudden we're turning to VFL players.

As for your Grundy comments, they're clearly just the laments of an ex. I'm sure you weren't complaining when he was collecting AAs and Copeland's. Fact is, Grundy has been rated as 'Elite' for hitouts to advantage in 3 out of the 7 seasons where he attended enough contests to be rated. Aside from that, twice rated as 'Above Average' and twice as 'Average'. It is interesting how these narratives develop once a player leaves a team though.

Anyway, this game will be decided by goal kicking accuracy IMO, pretty evenly match statistically everywhere else, and that was the story last time the two teams played. Collingwood have all of their top 6 average goal scores playing, and all of their top 6 goal accuracy players playing. In contrast, Dees are missing two of their top 6 average goal scorers, and two of their top 6 goal accuracy players.

So in summary, sure, put in however many disclaimers you need to to make you think you're the underdog, but it's not reality.

Yes, my Grundy comments were mischievous - but more playful than bitter. Good luck to him.

I certainly rate Oliver extremely highly and am relieved he is out for this match. I do think DeGoey’s importance to our side is similar to Oliver’s in yours, which is why I feel they somewhat offset.

I also agree that our side has a real evenness to it, with our bottom six better than most other teams’ equivalents, which has been a key to our success this season. The inability of the likes of Macrae, McInnes, Carmichael and Bianco to get a game in the seniors is evidence of that.

IMO on Monday you’ll have to two best footballers on the ground in Gawn and Petracca. (It would have been best three if Oliver had played.) So it will come down to whether our evenness and system can beat your top-end talent. Should be a ripper!


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[BaliDemon]

When you're more accurate, you kick more goals...

Derp.

10.6

17.10

Both accurate. Who most likely wins Einstein?

 

[Lord Nev]

Yes, my Grundy comments were mischievous - but more playful than bitter. Good luck to him.

I certainly rate Oliver extremely highly and am relieved he is out for this match. I do think DeGoey’s importance to our side is similar to Oliver’s in yours, which is why I feel they somewhat offset.

I also agree that our side has a real evenness to it, with our bottom six better than most other teams’ equivalents, which has been a key to our success this season. The inability of the likes of Macrae, McInnes, Carmichael and Bianco to get a game in the seniors is evidence of that.

IMO on Monday you’ll have to two best footballers on the ground in Gawn and Petracca. (It would have been best three if Oliver had played.) So it will come down to whether our evenness and system can beat your top-end talent. Should be a ripper!


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Gawn has struggled somewhat this year though. Not sure if it's the knee injury or getting used to the role-sharing, but he hasn't hit the form you would normally expect of him to this stage. Plus, I would say given the Brownlow odds that Petracca and Daicos would be the two best players on the field.

 

[Lord Nev]

10.6

17.10

Both accurate. Who most likely wins Einstein?

20.0
1.19

Who wins? Derp.

Have a look at what happened last time we played the Pies.

Then please don't reply to me anymore, I'm already tired of you dumbing down the place.

 

[BaliDemon]

20.0
1.19

Who wins? Derp.

Have a look at what happened last time we played the Pies.

Then please don't reply to me anymore, I'm already tired of you dumbing down the place.

Good sensible counter argument.

I almost feel guilty picking on you Nev. Almost.

 

[The Dr]

Brown, Schache, big blokes who can actually present and pluck a few. In favour of a couple of small forwards who struggle to average more than 1.0 goals a game and Joel Smith who’d struggle to produce a goal at a Tony Robbins convention.

Also, ignore the bullying from TopKent. He grows a set sitting in his Mum’s basement but he’s largely harmless. You’re welcome here.

"Big blokes who can pluck a few"


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[schmuttt]

Its exactly what I was talking about last week and why I didnt want DeGoey out, we are on a hiding to nothing this week. Asterisk if we win, no hope of beating them when they get everyone back later in year if we lose.

Saw it coming a mile away.

Hiding to nothing? Oliver isn’t playing either, in terms of the outs they’re pretty even.

 

[Lord Nev]

"Big blokes who can pluck a few"


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Ben Brown contested marks in 2023 - 0

 

[BaliDemon]

Ben Brown contested marks in 2023 - 0

Going at 4.7 marks/game and 3 goals/game in 2023. On par with career stats. Keep trying.

 

[The Dr]

Ben Brown contested marks in 2023 - 0

Lucky he offers such great defensive pressure to counteract that.


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[BaliDemon]

Lucky he offers such great defensive pressure to counteract that.


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Enjoy watching your boy J Smith run around like a headless chook in the F50 on Monday. Never know, umps might give him a sympathy free or two.

 

[The Dr]

Enjoy watching your boy J Smith run around like a headless chook in the F50 on Monday. Never know, umps might give him a sympathy free or two.

Cool. Will do.

Enjoy watching Brown in rehab after struggling in the vfl.


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[Topkent]

The * is this campaigner still talking about a bloke who's played 3 games . One of the worst contested marks in the league who's also struggling with injury and fitness is the saviour

 

[Daemon]

Was trying to find the "buy an argument gif" but couldn't find it. I found this instead - sums up this thread nicely I think.

 

[BaliDemon]

The * is this campaigner still talking about a bloke who's played 3 games . One of the worst contested marks in the league who's also struggling with injury and fitness is the saviour

4.7 marks/game, 3 goals/game in 2023.

Not looking for a lone saviour. Just a winning score from a quality front 6.

Your love of J.Smith is beyond irrational.

 

[The Dr]

4.7 marks/game, 3 goals/game in 2023.

Not looking for a lone saviour. Just a winning score from a quality front 6.

Your love of J.Smith is beyond irritational. Campaigner

Don't think there's one person on this board who loves Smith. Just most rational posters understand his limited pros outweigh the massive cons of the rest of our threadbare key forward stocks.


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[Crusty Demon]

Did I really see a Pies supporter come onto our board and try and out- pessimist us? Only Saints fans can match us in that department.

 

[LuckyLee]

Did I really see a Pies supporter come onto our board and try and out- pessimist us? Only Saints fans can match us in that department.

Hahaha - no, that’s not what I was doing - I was merely engaging in some light-hearted pre-game discussion.

But I do agree that you lot are a strangely pessimistic bunch, especially having won a flag in barnstorming fashion only a couple of years ago. You’ve definitely got me covered in that regard.

Good luck tomorrow. Hope it’s a close and exciting game. (Or a massive Pies win!)


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[BaliDemon]

Don't think there's one person on this board who loves Smith. Just most rational posters understand his limited pros outweigh the massive cons of the rest of our threadbare key forward stocks.


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If not Brown then Schache who kicked 4 last week for Casey. Much stronger case for either of them in the side than Smith given our paltry scoring output of the past month.

60-75 points simply isn’t going to beat Colllingwood. How are you being ‘rational’ thinking that?

 

[The Dr]

If not Brown then Schache who kicked 4 last week for Casey. Much stronger case for either of them in the side than Smith given our paltry scoring output of the past month.

60-75 points simply isn’t going to beat Colllingwood. How are you being ‘rational’ thinking that?

It's rational because anyone with any knowledge of modern footy knows kicking goals is only part of the picture with playing forward.

Anyway I'm done debating this. You know what they say - the longer you argue with an idiot, the sooner people won't be able to tell the difference.


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[Bluelegs]

If not Brown then Schache who kicked 4 last week for Casey. Much stronger case for either of them in the side than Smith given our paltry scoring output of the past month.

60-75 points simply isn’t going to beat Colllingwood. How are you being ‘rational’ thinking that?

FMD You're really gonna argue for Schache now whose been a plodder his whole career. How exactly is he an improvement on Smith? Cause he hasn't been any better than him at VFL and he couldn't get a kick in a side that won by 90 points when he last played AFL.

At least with Brown he was a half decent AFL player at one point so I got why someone would preference him.

 

[Squarky]

Brown, Schache, big blokes who can actually present and pluck a few. In favour of a couple of small forwards who struggle to average more than 1.0 goals a game and Joel Smith who’d struggle to produce a goal at a Tony Robbins convention.

Also, ignore the bullying from TopKent. He grows a set sitting in his Mum’s basement but he’s largely harmless. You’re welcome here.

I get the desire for a tall marking forward, but here's where we're at:

Brown: half crippled, didn't play for Casey this week cos his knee is cooked
Schache: all the competitiveness of wet lettuce
McDonald: moves like Frankenstein's monster
Petty: 4-6 weeks away

We tried TMac, but Port and Freo walked the ball out of our D50, and we looked miles better with Smith in. I'd love Schache to be the answer, but he doesn't have it in him.

 

[Crusty Demon]

Our F50 stocks are so low. A few of us been calling for Smith to play forward once he gets fit. I hope they stick with him for a few games at least until Petty comes back. Can still see him playing a role after that. He's quick, can compete in the air and can play a defensive role if needed. Most amount of F50 intercepts last week suggests he helped provide added pressure. Worth persisting over Tmac ir BBB who both look cooked

 

[Blackas87]

Anyone know what time the sliders start tomorrow?