Preview Changes: R12 vs Western Bulldogs, 2020 - Sun @ 12:25

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With Dude out it's perfect timing to replace him with Worrell as the interceptor. If McAsey needs a rest bring in Butts but ideally bring in Butts for Hartigan as I think Nicks was fed up with Hartigan last week.

Davis in for Lynch makes sense, with he and Walker playing higher up the ground and Berg and FOG deeper. If FOG continues to stink it up, put him in midfield against the Dogs for a patch and then drop him if still nothing.

Gollant to be looked at for replacing FOG

Shoenberg to make way for Sloane
 
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OUT: Lynch (Inj)
IN: Davis

Lets not get cute with this one. Lets finally give this kid his fair and well earned block of games.

Set and forget for 3-4 games min, if he can't perform by round 15 then at least we have our answer.
This.

Time to stop dicking around with Davis. Give him 4, then either keep him, or pay him out and move him on.
 
Surely we've made up our mind on Davis. Poholke too.

If we give every single yonug player opportunities to develop then we end up developing none of them. Need to make some calls rather than dicking people around for years without properly committing one way or another (eg CEY)
 
Only if we're stupid.

Another opportunity presents to move our list forward (Butts).

Or to cling tenaciously to the dire mess we've created (Kelly).

Hopefully Nicks has now realised that there is almost nothing in the past worth salvaging.

Has Doedee done has hamstring both weeks that Kelly has been dropped?
I agree and hopefully we go with the youth option rather than Kelly. If Talia is ok to play I would bring him in to replace McAsey and then move McAsey to Doedee's role of 3rd tall/intercept defender. Or we bring Worrall in to replace Doedee.

Would love to see Butts come in but isn't he more of a replacement for Talia and Hartigan? From what I've seen he is a shut down type defender.
 
I agree and hopefully we go with the youth option rather than Kelly. If Talia is ok to play I would bring him in to replace McAsey and then move McAsey to Doedee's role of 3rd tall/intercept defender. Or we bring Worrall in to replace Doedee.

Would love to see Butts come in but isn't he more of a replacement for Talia and Hartigan? From what I've seen he is a shut down type defender.
Butts is far more attacking than Talia and Hartigan, averaged 16 disposals last year and was known for intercept marking
 
Surely we've made up our mind on Davis. Poholke too.

If we give every single yonug player opportunities to develop then we end up developing none of them. Need to make some calls rather than dicking people around for years without properly committing one way or another (eg CEY)
If we’ve already made up our minds on Davis after 1 game down at Geelong and 1 game here in R1 before the COVID break, then we’re pretty dumb.

Similarly, if we’ve made that call after re contracting him for next year as well, then we’re pretty dumb.

There’s really nothing about our LM that would make any of the above a surprise to anyone.
 
Davis was an emergency last game wasn’t he? I think it’s pretty logical to suggest he will come in for Lynch.

Talia replaces Doedee

Butts replaces McAsey

Sloane for Crocker and play him up forward more. Is a great overhead mark and generally a good set shot kick.

Wouldn’t make any further changes this week, but Worrell should definitely be considered for 2-3 games out of the last 5.
 
It was the tendon they used for his ACL graft.

Perfect opportunity to play Jordy Butts for a block of games...... But they won't

I hope they do, but I reckon this week unlikely as it requires a double KPD swap alongside the Doedee change out. How about Kelly this week and maybe next and then Talia, McAsey, Butts, Sholl, McPherson, Hamill, Brown with Smith also focussing on being behind the ball. Try and finish the year like that. Kelly, Hartigan and Mackay squeezed out.

Of course, condensing the fixture makes predictions difficult with resting players the go.
 
If we lose every match this year, and the first two matches of 2021, we will have a longer losing streak than any Gold Coast or GWS side in their history
Sydney's AFL record of 26 straight losses is the one to beat (1992-93). Not much evidence to suggest we won't get there.
 

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As far as I can tell, no club has gone winless in a 22 game season.
If a team has only 10% chance of winning any game, there is a 16.7% chance of a winless 17 game season. That reduces to 9.8% chance of a winless 22 game season.
Change it to a 20% chance, there is a 2.3% chance of going winless over 17 games, 0.7% chance over 22. So a winless 17 game season is about 2-3 times more likely.
Consider that in a 22 game season with a seeded draw, you are likely to be playing at least some of the weaker teams twice, so the probability of jagging the one win increases considerably. All up I would say that a winless 17 game season is about 5-6 times more likely than a winless 22 game season.
 
Injury list as of Thursday, August 13
Rory Sloane – Hand (available)
Will Hamill – Concussion (TBC)
Brad Crouch – Hamstring (2 weeks)
Tom Lynch – Hamstring (2-3 weeks)
Wayne Milera – Foot (2-3 weeks)
Ayce Taylor – Hamstring (3 weeks)
Tom Doedee – Hamstring (season)
Jordan Gallucci – Achilles (season)

Hamill has no signs of concussion but they're playing it safe and will monitor over the next few weeks
 
As far as I can tell, no club has gone winless in a 22 game season.
If a team has only 10% chance of winning any game, there is a 16.7% chance of a winless 17 game season. That reduces to 9.8% chance of a winless 22 game season.
Change it to a 20% chance, there is a 2.3% chance of going winless over 17 games, 0.7% chance over 22. So a winless 17 game season is about 2-3 times more likely.
Consider that in a 22 game season with a seeded draw, you are likely to be playing at least some of the weaker teams twice, so the probability of jagging the one win increases considerably. All up I would say that a winless 17 game season is about 5-6 times more likely than a winless 22 game season.




 
Perhaps but the side would benefit from his precision kicking and line breaking no end. Smith did stuff up a couple of times but he's pretty much the only one doing this at the mo. especially later in games.
He’d do well to use the time away to reflect on what he wants out of his career.

A top line midfielder and one of the finest we’ve produced, or a bog average, anonymous half back.

As things stand he could go either way.
 
Maybe we could give McAsey the Doedee role for the rest of the year, He might build some confidence floating about and jumping at the ball.
McAsey isn't a defender at this stage. Play him up forward to get some confidence. His strength is his marking which is also needed up forward.
Himmelberg and McAsey your key targets and surround them with Davis Stengle McAdam Fogarty/Sloane.

Worrell for Doedee and Butts for Hartigan.
Backline of:
Brown Talia Butts/McPherson
Smith Worrell Sholl
 
Surely we've made up our mind on Davis. Poholke too.

If we give every single yonug player opportunities to develop then we end up developing none of them. Need to make some calls rather than dicking people around for years without properly committing one way or another (eg CEY)

Why would we even consider letting Poholke go though? Its madness that we aren't giving him games. We need to get more talent in the door that will be around for the next decade. That means cashing in on players with value. We are finishing bottom this year and next. It is an absolute no-brainer to let both Brad and Matt Crouch walk if we believe they are a high chance of band 1 compo. If they are not, we should still be looking to trade them rather than giving them each another 4 or 5 year contract.

This means we need to bring through some mature bodies to play midfield, even as squad player. Poholke is the only guy in our squad that fits this. Knight isn't good enough. Poholke may be a poor mans AFL midfielder, but we are destitute. We should be putting games into him even if he weakens us. SWith Sloanes body now breaking down, this becomes even more important.

Poholke is the stop gap we have, especially with the decision we made not to give Hugh the contract he wanted. We are repeating old mistakes by not looking at our list and identifying who we will absolutely need to put games in. I agree he isn't best 22, but he is the guy that we have that will fill the void for the loss of 2 crouches and an aging Sloane.
 

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