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Prediction Changes: Round 23 Vs GWS + pre-match discussion

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I go back and forth on this so much but I do think it's worth trying cox up fwd for a whole game. Especially in these last few weeks where he's kinda in a slump. I'd expect he has a slightly better goal sense than logue who's first instinct is to pass it off every time.
 

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Matthew Johnson could be a sneaky for a debut this week. Was solid for Peel.
Would seem unlikely just before the finals, who would he be replacing? Tucker?
I think we'd prefer to be keeping Tucker in for continuity, knowledge of the game plan and the mature body.

Would love to see Johnson, but I don't think now is the time, and particularly not expecting it with the conservatism the match committee has shown to date.
 
Can’t be overconfident and rest players. The week break is there after this game. Gives nearly 14 days between the last round and finals.
AP has played through all season, you’d expect Cox to do so.

This all wouldn’t be a problem with Lobb, Fyfe if Tabs was fit. Then you can rest Lobb and perhaps play Fyfe 60% game time and add Meek or Sturt. Suddenly it’s about putting tall targets in up forward. Fyfe isn’t going to replace Lobb’s aerial threat- no way
 
The point with Meek coming in for Lobb is he will give a much better contest than we saw from Lobb last week (yes he was sore but we can’t afford that again), additionally it allows Logue to play forward all game & additional to the additionally it allows Darcy time up forward where he is very competent.
 

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Moneyball scenario

Do we think we make the 4? Play the %. If yes, go all in

If no, rest Lobb, Cox and anyone else who’s really sore


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Unfortunately with the draw we aren't waiting on percentage. We just need the win.

If there is a draw between Mel vs Bris them we could rest players.
Otherwise we need the win and to wait till Sunday for the last two games results before we'll know if we make the four.
 
Unfortunately with the draw we aren't waiting on percentage. We just need the win.

If there is a draw between Mel vs Bris them we could rest players.
Otherwise we need the win and to wait till Sunday for the last two games results before we'll know if we make the four.
I think they meant play the percentages, as in if less than 50% chance of making the 4 even if we win just rest players.

I'd flip it around though, if we were any hope of winning the flag this year you'd think it'd be by finishing fourth and then upsetting Geelong in a qualifying final at the MCG.
From fifth/sixth you'd be playing Richmond/Carlton and then presumably 2 of the 5 above us at their home ground before the grand final.

With our current form we'd lose that first elimination final at home.

So all in.
 

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Didn't sound that confident about Lobb on Ch 7 tonight.
Sounded +ve on Fyfe though.
Darcy & Fyfe could be the go up forward
Its not worth playing Lobb if he’s still sore, I’m not sure he’s the type to soldier on despite the discomfort. Last week it left us a player down & he should have come off earlier.
Happy to write him off now, give him a few weeks to get it as right as possible & get someone fit in there. Seems a no brainer & I’d be disappointed if he’s named.
 
Its not worth playing Lobb if he’s still sore, I’m not sure he’s the type to soldier on despite the discomfort. Last week it left us a player down & he should have come off earlier.
Happy to write him off now, give him a few weeks to get it as right as possible & get someone fit in there. Seems a no brainer & I’d be disappointed if he’s named.
Poor buggers got busted ribs and a collar bone. Not sure if the shoulder is a separate issue but he looked like he had dislocated that as well.

All very nasty painful injuries to play with
 

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Prediction Changes: Round 23 Vs GWS + pre-match discussion

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