Preview Changes: Round 4 v Essendon

[hey shorty]

Kelly ain't going anywhere based on last night.

 

[CEY Crow]

Menzel in for McGovern
Jenkins in for Otten
Otten moves back and takes Kelly's role

On SM-G935F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I like it based on form, but would a backline containing Talia, Hartigan, Otten and Lever be flexible enough to cover small and medium forwards? I was impressed with Hartigan's mobility on Gray tonight, but equally did you see Kelly harassing either Wingard or Powell Pepper on the HBF (think it was second term). Otten or Lever would have been run around with ease and that would likely result in a goal - so I don't think structurally we can keep Otten in the side if Jenkins is fit. Which is a shame because Otten has played mature, composed football for the past 3 weeks

 

[marty36]

I like it based on form, but would a backline containing Talia, Hartigan, Otten and Lever be flexible enough to cover small and medium forwards? I was impressed with Hartigan's mobility on Gray tonight, but equally did you see Kelly harassing either Wingard or Powell Pepper on the HBF (think it was second term). Otten or Lever would have been run around with ease and that would likely result in a goal - so I don't think structurally we can keep Otten in the side if Jenkins is fit. Which is a shame because Otten has played mature, composed football for the past 3 weeks

Not a shame because there is absolutely zero chance he will be dropped

 

[CEY Crow]

Did you even watch the game?

Kelly had 16 disposals at 75% efficiency.

I don't like disposal efficiency stats, a bomb down the line is an effective disposal, a handball to a team mate about to get tackled is an effective disposal. Also depends on kick to handball ratio - too many variables in that stat. Even goal kicking efficiency (which is one of the more pure stats in football) is sometimes a bad stat because it doesn't account for out on the full (Think J Daniher or T Cloke, when people mention they're set shot accuracy they are often overstating by a fair bit because OOF is omitted). There's no way statistically to account for putting a kick to the right side of a player, but it makes an enormous difference to the outcome of a play.

I watched the game and have watched the past 3 weeks, based upon that evidence do you think Kelly has HBF standard AFL disposal? HBF requires not merely passable level of kicking (which Kelly doesn't have in my opinion), but requires better than average disposal because the counter attacking transition kick from the HBF is the most damaging kick in AFL (both ways, can make or cost a team goals). Kelly and Talia would be the two players i least want the ball in their hands, one is an All Australian lock down defender negating the best key talks in the game, the other is an average HBF.

I see many positives in Kelly - he shows great endeavour, hard running, never backs out of a contest, is an intelligent footballer who plays for the team and leaves his man at the appropriate time to assist his team mates (which is a rare and under appreciated skill). However personally think his kicking is too much of a limitation despite his other attributes. Hopefully he proves me wrong, but otherwise Cheney or Doedee will replace him when they are fit.

 

[ad victoriam]

I like it based on form, but would a backline containing Talia, Hartigan, Otten and Lever be flexible enough to cover small and medium forwards? I was impressed with Hartigan's mobility on Gray tonight, but equally did you see Kelly harassing either Wingard or Powell Pepper on the HBF (think it was second term). Otten or Lever would have been run around with ease and that would likely result in a goal - so I don't think structurally we can keep Otten in the side if Jenkins is fit. Which is a shame because Otten has played mature, composed football for the past 3 weeks

After watching Hartigan towel up R Gray 183cm on Sat I believe they can,

 

[Paladin]

BUGGER Foxtel saying Guv is tendon damage - could be 12 weeks

Is a hamstring tendon injury complicated to come back from? Is he likely to have any agility or pace issues for a while?

 

[CEY Crow]

Not a shame because there is absolutely zero chance he will be dropped

Maybe you're right, I'm not really claiming to know what the selection panel will do in this scenario (and no, i don't want to bet on it)

But do you agree a backline containing Talia, Lever, Hartigan and Otten is too slow and immobile? That's my contention.

 

[marty36]

That really hurts. Gov is so important to us and replacing him with a completely different player in Menzel hurts even more.

He wasn't important last night he played awful before he got injured in the last

 

[CEY Crow]

After watching Hartigan towel up R Gray 183cm on Sat I believe they can,

Hartigan's effort was superb, but I respectfully disagree that we can have all four of Talia, Lever, Hartigan and Otten in the backline. Will be interesting to see what selection does if Jenkins is fit - might keep Otten in forward line to cover Gov but then i think Tex, Jenkins, Ottens and Lynch will not be able to apply sufficient forward pressure to contain the ball in our half, which has been a great strength this season so far.

 

[marty36]

Maybe you're right, I'm not really claiming to know what the selection panel will do in this scenario (and no, i don't want to bet on it)

But do you agree a backline containing Talia, Lever, Hartigan and Otten is too slow and immobile? That's my contention.

Yet Hartigan beat one of the best smalls in the game last night

 

[Redleg Crow]

Is a hamstring tendon injury complicated to come back from? Is he likely to have any agility or pace issues for a while?

Probably surgery. Wait and see - just going by Ralph on Foxtel, so might be dodgy info, but generally the "high" hamstring injuries are the bad ones

 

[Redleg Crow]

Is a hamstring tendon injury complicated to come back from? Is he likely to have any agility or pace issues for a while?

But, tbh I don't know. Anyone think of some players who've done tendons?

 

[marty36]

Maybe you're right, I'm not really claiming to know what the selection panel will do in this scenario (and no, i don't want to bet on it)

But do you agree a backline containing Talia, Lever, Hartigan and Otten is too slow and immobile? That's my contention.

I agree depending what we are up against and as it proved against hawthorn having a swingman with some size that can play forward and back and ruck is invaluable so even if he was off the bench it would be a wise move

 

[SloaneysDanger]

He wasn't important last night he played awful before he got injured in the last

That's 1 game. Overall he is very important to us.

 

[Schulzycrow]

B Crouch with a lazy 40 disposals against Sturt.

 

[CEY Crow]

Yet Hartigan beat one of the best smalls in the game last night

It's not impossible to squeeze these four into the backline.

But let's look at Essendon's listed forward line this week:

HF: Brown, Hooker, Zaharakis

F: Z.Merrett, Daniher, McDonald-Tipungwuti

Don't know much about Brown, but Hooker and Daniher are obviously big. I'd argue Daniher is reasonably mobile so perfect for Hartigan and would be too mobile for Otten.

Merret, Tipungwuti and Zaharakis are quick and agile...would you want one of Lever or Otten lining up on one of them? I wouldn't.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

That's gotta be close to season over for guv then

 

[marty36]

It's not impossible to squeeze these four into the backline.

But let's look at Essendon's listed forward line this week:

HF: Brown, Hooker, Zaharakis

F: Z.Merrett, Daniher, McDonald-Tipungwuti

Don't know much about Brown, but Hooker and Daniher are obviously big. I'd argue Daniher is reasonably mobile so perfect for Hartigan and would be too mobile for Otten.

Merret, Tipungwuti and Zaharakis are quick and agile...would you want one of Lever or Otten lining up on one of them? I wouldn't.

I agree it's unlikely you will play all four at once but Otten is ideal to play off the bench he can go back if needed or as we saw last night Gov was out of form he could have taken his spot in fact lever wasn't that good either. It gives the coach flexibility along with covering injuries to one of 8 talls we play on the ground at the same time

 

[Truck25]

Ok, so Crouchy got 40 touches today! big question has to be who he replaces. Dmac has to be in the spot light. he's kicked a couple of goals but when a gun comes back... what do you do

 

[Roovolution]

Maybe you're right, I'm not really claiming to know what the selection panel will do in this scenario (and no, i don't want to bet on it)

But do you agree a backline containing Talia, Lever, Hartigan and Otten is too slow and immobile? That's my contention.

Before last night yes, now I'm not so sure.

 

[Kickin Goals]

How many weeks will brouch be gathering 40 plus in the sanfl for?

Nostradamus!

 

[Roovolution]

I seriously think you "drop Otten for ...team balance " muppets need to put on a pair of oven mitts and head into Aldi for some self raising flour....cause you'll be baking Humble Pie when he helps us win the flag this year. Otten adds VITAL flexibility to our bench...can play forward or back...and adds composure and leadership amongst a young group. If he loses form...he gets dropped like anyone else....but he's getting better and better....so give it up you bunch of "paint by numbers" selectors , desperate to confirm your best 22 from January is right. Otten in form IS best 22 !!!!

Otten has been massive for us this season and his goal on the run last nite was smooth as silk.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

But, tbh I don't know. Anyone think of some players who've done tendons?

Nick Riewoldt

 

[marty36]

I seriously think you "drop Otten for ...team balance " muppets need to put on a pair of oven mitts and head into Aldi for some self raising flour....cause you'll be baking Humble Pie when he helps us win the flag this year. Otten adds VITAL flexibility to our bench...can play forward or back...and adds composure and leadership amongst a young group. If he loses form...he gets dropped like anyone else....but he's getting better and better....so give it up you bunch of "paint by numbers" selectors , desperate to confirm your best 22 from January is right. Otten in form IS best 22 !!!!

Yes this team balance brigade confuse me we have Jacobs, Talia, Harto, Lever, tex, gov, lynch and JJ that's 8 almost half a side of talls and they don't want a tall on the bench to cover form or injury

Can someone explain how this balance works

 

[NTRabbit]

Ok, so Crouchy got 40 touches today! big question has to be who he replaces. Dmac has to be in the spot light. he's kicked a couple of goals but when a gun comes back... what do you do

Nobody. Stays in the SANFL another week - his 40 touches can hardly have been that inspiring when the final margin was only 2 points. Needs to prove he's willing to run defensively first, because all he did last year at AFL level was ski downhill in the easy games and evaporate in the hard games.

McGovern clearly out, pretty sure it'll be Jenkins straight back in. Milera looking as weak as water out there, shades of the worst of Luke Jericho and Ricky Henderson at the contest, I'd have him out first and replaced by Menzel in the coming weeks, or perhaps replaced by an elevated Greenwood if he keeps the form up.