Prediction Changes v Cats

[murphy2bedabest]

Given the likely conditions on Friday night we can't take in any 50/50s, if Strings or anyone isn't 100% I say give them another week..... Willo/Honey are strong and fit and made of the right stuff and Hammer/Cordy/Collo can play a role.

Interesting that Bevo hinted that another defender is being considered for this week, possibly Smith?

Has hammer played this year? My thoughts was on him.

I have been saying for a while now that don't be suprised to see smith play before seasons end.

 

[Pugz89]

Has hammer played this year? My thoughts was on him.

I have been saying for a while now that don't be suprised to see smith play before seasons end.

Late call up for Port game after Adams rolled his ankle.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Interesting that Bevo hinted that another defender is being considered for this week, possibly Smith?

He said we could play the 20th player to have played in the backline for us this year (amazing stat) - Cordy hasn't played this year so I gathered that's who Bev was talking about.

 

[True Dog]

Has hammer played this year? My thoughts was on him.

I have been saying for a while now that don't be suprised to see smith play before seasons end.

Bevo said something along the lines of considering their 20th person to play down back which tells me it will be a first gamer this season. Has Cordy played this year?

Edit- Or what Dannnnnnnnnn said

 

[Ted's Robot]

Given the likely conditions on Friday night we can't take in any 50/50s, if Strings or anyone isn't 100% I say give them another week..... Willo/Honey are strong and fit and made of the right stuff and Hammer/Cordy/Collo can play a role.

Interesting that Bevo hinted that another defender is being considered for this week, possibly Smith?

I took it as Cordy might be the defender to come in, has he played this year yet?

 

[Igloo]

Once again, only having a crack at Geelong supporters. I know the city of Geelong has some fine, upstanding citizens, many of which post on this board.

 

[AFDogs]

I would love to see them throw Wood down forward. Would be great if Adams was in the team to cover his absence down back though.

Think we need to try Hamling/Wood/Roberts up forward this week. Someone who can take a grab.

 

[murphy2bedabest]

Bevo said something along the lines of considering their 20th person to play down back which tells me it will be a first gamer this season. Has Cordy played this year?

Edit- Or what Dannnnnnnnnn said

My feel after the game was that cordy would come in for Morris, so Bev hinting at the 20th defender maybe coming in had me thinking Morris might not get up, being a 6 day turn around.

Note he didn't train tonight, though he often doesn't on Tuesday's

I would love to see smith playing, to free up suckling or JJ to be moved up the ground, so they can be the ones kicking it inside F50

 

[threenewpadlocks]

He said we could play the 20th player to have played in the backline for us this year (amazing stat) - Cordy hasn't played this year so I gathered that's who Bev was talking about.

Let's try and work out the 20 players. I will consider "back 6" to be the 6 players who line up behind the ball at centre bounces, and only if they have played significant time there (more than just a rotation here or there)

1. Suckling
2. Murphy
3. Boyd
4. Hunter (played quarters 2, 3 and 4 against North across half-back and has played at half-back for 5-10 minute patches here and there during the season)
5. Wood
6. Roberts
7. Webb - game against Sydney he was part of the back 6 rotation. Against Richmond he was part of the mid/resting forward rotation
8. Roughead - got himself on this list this weekend, because before he'd never played more than about a 15 minute patch (we trialled Roberts forward and put Roughead back for a 15 minute patch at the end of the game when the match was won against Melbourne, and from memory another match in similar circumstances I've forgotten, so his inclusion to this list would have been borderline until this weekend's game)
9. Biggs
10. Hamling
11. Collins
12. Adams
13. Williams
14. Morris
15. Johannisen
16. Adcock
17. (Cordy)

Bev, you're 3 players short mate. I'll try and throw up the other players that may get him to 20:

• Stringer - is he counting the half a dozen times we lined up Stringer at the edge of the centre square to barrel his way through?
• Macrae - he pushes deep into defensive territory like Hunter, but has he actually lined up across half-back like Hunter did against North? I don't recall.
• Dunkley - did he play any half-back early in the season in his first two games? Since his return he's been part of the mid/resting forward rotation
• Stevens - I don't think he's played any half back but I can't honestly be certain
• Dickson - certainly pushing higher up the ground and as a wingman at times, but don't think he's ever been part of the defensive rotation
• Dale - can only recall him being a high-half-forward type, but did he ever spend time in the back six?
• Daniel - does his time tagging Mitchell count, if Mitchell spent time resting forward?
• Picken - can't recall him spending any time as a small defender as he did a few years ago under McCartney. Remember when we used to have debates which of Wells or Boomer he would tag, seeing he used to alternate between the two and whichever one he tagged had a quiet game and the other one would dominate?
• Jong - don't think he was off half back but then again who knows.

I reckon the ones from the above list, Stringer may count, as does Daniel. So unless he's rounded up (likely in all honesty), is he counting those two and maybe Roarke Smith a surprise inclusion?

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Let's try and work out the 20 players. I will consider "back 6" to be the 6 players who line up behind the ball at centre bounces, and only if they have played significant time there (more than just a rotation here or there)

1. Suckling
2. Murphy
3. Boyd
4. Hunter (played quarters 2, 3 and 4 against North across half-back and has played at half-back for 5-10 minute patches here and there during the season)
5. Wood
6. Roberts
7. Webb - game against Sydney he was part of the back 6 rotation. Against Richmond he was part of the mid/resting forward rotation
8. Roughead - got himself on this list this weekend, because before he'd never played more than about a 15 minute patch (we trialled Roberts forward and put Roughead back for a 15 minute patch at the end of the game when the match was won against Melbourne, and from memory another match in similar circumstances I've forgotten, so his inclusion to this list would have been borderline until this weekend's game)
9. Biggs
10. Hamling
11. Collins
12. Adams
13. Williams
14. Morris
15. Johannisen
16. Adcock
17. (Cordy)

Bev, you're 3 players short mate. I'll try and throw up the other players that may get him to 20:

• Stringer - is he counting the half a dozen times we lined up Stringer at the edge of the centre square to barrel his way through?
• Macrae - he pushes deep into defensive territory like Hunter, but has he actually lined up across half-back like Hunter did against North? I don't recall.
• Dunkley - did he play any half-back early in the season in his first two games? Since his return he's been part of the mid/resting forward rotation
• Stevens - I don't think he's played any half back but I can't honestly be certain
• Dickson - certainly pushing higher up the ground and as a wingman at times, but don't think he's ever been part of the defensive rotation
• Dale - can only recall him being a high-half-forward type, but did he ever spend time in the back six?
• Daniel - does his time tagging Mitchell count, if Mitchell spent time resting forward?
• Picken - can't recall him spending any time as a small defender as he did a few years ago under McCartney. Remember when we used to have debates which of Wells or Boomer he would tag, seeing he used to alternate between the two and whichever one he tagged had a quiet game and the other one would dominate?
• Jong - don't think he was off half back but then again who knows.

I reckon the ones from the above list, Stringer may count, as does Daniel. So unless he's rounded up (likely in all honesty), is he counting those two and maybe Roarke Smith a surprise inclusion?

I tried this before with Igloo and got as far as this:

All of these have definitely played in the backline
Hunter
Morris
Adams
Roberts
Collins
Murphy
JJ
Biggs
Boyd
Suckling
Roughead
Hamling
Wood
Webb
Williams
Adcock

Then three of these
Stevens
Liberatore
Daniel
Picken

Can't pick which out of the last four haven't played in the backline.

At any rate, it's an incredible statistic given how outstanding our defence has been all year. Big tick for our defensive system.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I tried this before with Igloo and got as far as this:

Can't pick which out of the last four haven't played in the backline.

At any rate, it's an incredible statistic given how outstanding our defence has been all year. Big tick for our defensive system.

I reckon Stringer should be included in that group because we know that he's lined up at the back of the square to rampage through the centre bounce stoppage at times. Not sure whether that makes him part of the defensive rotation however.

 

[Allan Shorty]

Funny how we're pretty happy with Suckling these days but Gilbs kicking had him covered by a long way.

He's not at gilbee's level in any facet.

 

[jdz101]

He's not at gilbee's level in any facet.

Seeing as we're doing a lot of Gilbee throwbacks for some reason at the moment.

The girlfriend was helping her little nephew get some saints players' signatures in the forward pocket after their warmup a few weeks back, and she saw Gilbee bend a checkside through the goals from halfway down the players' ramp about 10m behind the boundary line. In business slacks and leather shoes no less.

Said it was the best goal she's ever seen.

 

[immortalmike]

I tried this before with Igloo and got as far as this:

Can't pick which out of the last four haven't played in the backline.

At any rate, it's an incredible statistic given how outstanding our defence has been all year. Big tick for our defensive system.

Picken.

 

[_Mike_]

I'd back you guys in more than what you would mate. You've got some really good players who rise when the going gets tough. Was absolutely gutted to see Wallis and Redpath go down this week, really wanted you guys to have a good sniff at finals - your youngens are among the AFL's most exciting.

I like your optimism as an opposition supporter. Our issue is our lack of goal scoring power and I see us as the Freo of 2015 unfortunately. with the loss of Crameri our structure took a massive hit and with TBoyd missing for a good chunk of the season we've had to rely on bombing long in the hope of finding Stringer in a one on one or getting Redpath to a contested mark.

Im not looking at the current TBoyd situation in any doom and gloom, he is another Tom Hawkins type player who will come into it in time. If Hawkins has his goal kicking boots on this Friday, that will be the difference and more than enough to put the result beyond doubt. Im a fan of Hawkins, he has been a solid KPF for you guys in his time and stepped up when it counted (in finals matches)

 

[Braybrook Son]

Seeing as we're doing a lot of Gilbee throwbacks for some reason at the moment.

The girlfriend was helping her little nephew get some saints players' signatures in the forward pocket after their warmup a few weeks back, and she saw Gilbee bend a checkside through the goals from halfway down the players' ramp about 10m behind the boundary line. In business slacks and leather shoes no less.

Said it was the best goal she's ever seen.

Let's not forget how good a kick Rohan Smith was in his prime too. Not far behind Gilbee imho

 

[fred cook]

Let Minson & Roughy swap between ruck & Will forward, Roughy back. Will to ruck as much of the game himself as possible, Boyd to do F50 throw in's/ball up's only.

Mate when his everyone going to understand

Will Minson will never play for the dogs again end of story

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Mate when his everyone going to understand

Will Minson will never play for the dogs again end of story

Why's that?

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

Solving our forward line effectiveness is our biggest problem. With redpath out for the season and Boyd not ready to hit his straps we require an alternative for the balance of the season.

The vanilla options of Boyd and/or Hamling strike me as doomed. Hamling could be an effective surprise move late in a game but his attributes aren't going to trouble defenders who have time to adjust to his forward presence.

Remarkably, even with all our injuries our defense have stood up. If Morris comes up this week I reckon we can spare our best contested mark and intercept mark and captain up forward.

Assuming, he is not entirely disorientated playing up forward, Eastern Wood is a nightmare matchup for a defender. His marking is elite, he is quick, evasive and a huge leap. His goal kicking is iffy but who in our side isn't iffy in front of goals at the minute.

When geelong press forward, the confidence of lonergan, Taylor and Enright would be sorely tested with our Eastern wood threatening to mark everything with his sticky fingers and stringer lurking amongst them ready for the quick rebound.

If we go in with the current plan it will be t boyd or clay as the get out of jail kick which the geelong defenders will eat up with multiple entries.

Yes we lose our best stopper but all season we consistently win forward entries but lose games. If wood takes 3-4 contested marks the geelong defense will be exposed for pace and panic just a twinge. It's the edge we need to provide room for stringer Dickson and others to do their work with geelong defense worried about wood.

My devious plan relies on one thing - can wood effectively orientate himself to playing ahead of the ball?

The only time we have looked great up forward this year was in the Port game and that's because we were always lowering our eyes when going inside 50, it was beautiful to watch our forwards getting hit up with low short passes. It helped that Red was kicking them from 50 out. Boyd is a great kick from 50 as well. Just need to lower our eyes and honor the leads.
I like the Wood up forward idea but that form down back rarely translates up forward.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Good to hear reinforcements are on the way. In fact with Stringer and Dahl back, depending on what happens with Morris, you could argue we will actually field a stronger team than last week even with the injuries.

Those are some pretty massive ins. Given the publicity that your injuries have got (with good reason considering the Wallis' horrific one and the ACLs) you'll still be putting out a pretty strong team.

Given Geelong's Jeckyl and Hyde nature this year I can see us buying into the "massively depleted" talk and thinking it'll happen. But you've got the ability to beat us up around the ball and your mix of medium forwards could really trouble us. I can just see you guys putting 4-5 goals on us early before we realise that we actually need to be at our best to get the points. By then it'll be too late.

 

[Fossie 32]

Those are some pretty massive ins. Given the publicity that your injuries have got (with good reason considering the Wallis' horrific one and the ACLs) you'll still be putting out a pretty strong team.

Given Geelong's Jeckyl and Hyde nature this year I can see us buying into the "massively depleted" talk and thinking it'll happen. But you've got the ability to beat us up around the ball and your mix of medium forwards could really trouble us. I can just see you guys putting 4-5 goals on us early before we realise that we actually need to be at our best to get the points. By then it'll be too late.

I strongly endorse this script

 

[TempleKelvington]

Cats are a good side, but as I have said before they have far more ordinary footballers within their group than in any time in recent history and so it makes them getable. Dangerfield in particular has offset this a lot, otherwise I suspect they would be just run of the mill this year. Hence why they were so desperate to get him.

If we let him run around unchecked on Friday night we will lose, Selwood also needs some attention, and if we do that we go most of the way to beating them. I don't see their depth or spread of talent to be as great as some teams, so I think they are a team you can beat by closing down a couple of players. Can't say that about all top 4 to 6 sides.

Can I suggest the reason why they have a good record against top sides this year is because of precisely that. The top sides just pitt their mids against them in team defence, rather than a checking individuals, while the weaker teams who don't have that capability put more time into the individual. This exposes the second tier players far more and all the sudden they are vulnerable.

Bev will probably just back his team system to get it done, but I doubt it will work for us, unless our ball skills are sublime. Unlike the Hawks where tagging one mid would probably be meaningless, tagging or hard checking Dangerfield and or Selwood out of the game would almost certainly win us the game.

Out: Morris,Wallis, Redpath, Dunkley
In: Cordy, Hamling, Minson, Dalhaus (Stringer for Hamling if 100%).

Picken to Dangerfield. Daniel to Selwood. Minson 80% ruck, Boyd 90% forward. Roughy 10% ruck and some forward and back time if required.

 

[JTCWBFC]

Can we please, for the love of God, tag Dangerfield.

I can't handle watching him rack up 40 while picken gives us sfa the other way.

Stop Danger Stop Geelong.

 

[fronkalicious]

Can we just actually beat these guys for once? We're They're bitches. It's that simple.

 

[rip it up]

Really looking forward to seeing which side MC go with.

We MUST keep Toyd forward 50 or atleast another tall who will at least compete in the air. Geelong's backs distroyed us last time with picking off the high ball generally uncontested. As said a number of times for a number of weeks, not blazing away with our forward entries will help.

Our forwards are the key in this one, they need to work overtime at making Geelong defenders accountable which is an enormous task really. I'd love to see our forward pressure right up where it was earlier last year.

Confident in our mids can pick themselves up and get back on top.
Defenders to get the job done. Just gotta watch Menzel hiding out the back for the cheap kicks.