Prediction Changes vs Brisbane

[1970crow]

First year players rarely play every single match.

You're saying they should have predicted his Geelong game and preemptively dropped him for it?

The only way the last bit of your post would make sense is if we're considering not playing McGovern for finals or not playing Walker for finals.

Anti-resters are the football equivalent to anti-vaxers. Strong belief based view with no evidence that the practice doesn't improve outcomes and everything pointing towards the positive is a conspiracy.

They've been supported by dark age player management practices for so long that their belief system is yet to be rattled, hence the need for conspiracy. The cult has been so strong that not even the use by recent premiership clubs has caused pause for thought. These are confronting times for these true 'anti-rest' disciples, but they will return to us, but it will be a long and painful road. Well, it will be for the rest of us.

 

[Schulzycrow]

Saw Knight at a Toyota dealership autograph signing last night along with Tex. Knight said he'd be back in the SANFL next weekend.

 

[1970crow]

First year players rarely play every single match.

You're saying they should have predicted his Geelong game and preemptively dropped him for it?

The only way the last bit of your post would make sense is if we're considering not playing McGovern for finals or not playing Walker for finals.

Nearly everyone knew that Shooter needed a rest prior to the Cats game, but we loaded up our best 22 at the time and hoped we'd get an important win. Not to appear Vaderish, but outside of the decision between Hendo, Seed and Dmac, I think that was the best 22 based on maintaining the current structure.

 

[DJ75]

Nearly everyone knew that Shooter needed a rest prior to the Cats game, but we loaded up our best 22 at the time and hoped we'd get an important win. Not to appear Vaderish, but outside of the decision between Hendo, Seed and Dmac, I think that was the best 22 based on maintaining the current structure.

I suspect that on the back of his worst game, the coaches challenged Shooter to respond. He did exactly that.

Now he gets the rest he needed on the back of some confidence. Much better than putting him out of the team on the back of an awful performance.

Really good management of a young player from my point of view.

 

[1970crow]

It's a shame you don't get to see much SANFL in Canberra, if you did your bias against CEY's kicking ability probably wouldn't be what it is. He seems much improved in this area.....anyway we'll see Saturday night I guess, it looks like he'll play.

You'd think he'd use CEY's kicking at AFL level last year rather than revert to espousing views of others from games he hasn't seen. Although, as you say, it assists in feeding his not insignificant bias.

 

[TAFKATMS]

WW, I've never seen someone be wrong so many times yet keep coming back for more. Like a little dog at a tennis ball.

There is no "list" and emergencies, traveling and not only tell you where things are at that round, not long term. The emergencies are strategic.

Can we stop with the last in first out crap and best 22?

 

[GreyCrow]

Only leaves us with like for like

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Nearly everyone knew that Shooter needed a rest prior to the Cats game, but we loaded up our best 22 at the time and hoped we'd get an important win. Not to appear Vaderish, but outside of the decision between Hendo, Seed and Dmac, I think that was the best 22 based on maintaining the current structure.

I suspect if tex wasn't injured, gov would have been rested last weekend.

Just been deferred a week... Hopefully.

Also, why gov is an emergency in case Tex doesn't pull up ok.

Good management imo.

 

[Apsaalooke]

Anti-resters are the football equivalent to anti-vaxers. Strong belief based view with no evidence that the practice doesn't improve outcomes and everything pointing towards the positive is a conspiracy.

They've been supported by dark age player management practices for so long that their belief system is yet to be rattled, hence the need for conspiracy. The cult has been so strong that not even the use by recent premiership clubs has caused pause for thought. These are confronting times for these true 'anti-rest' disciples, but they will return to us, but it will be a long and painful road. Well, it will be for the rest of us.

I'm pro-rest and pro-vaccines, but I'm not sure if there any documented evidence that resting players improves outcomes whereas there is plenty of evidence that vaccines do.

 

[crows dude]

Hopefully no injuries this week. Please. Could have a full list minus Ramsey who would still be 1-2 weeks. Jacobs maybe for a 2nd week rest

Its a strong SANFL Team with one top up plus Carey

Beech Dear Greenwood
Knight Otten Milera
Menzel Grigg Henderson
VB Keath Hampton
Dodee Carey Shaw

Hunter
Wigg
Gore

Interchange Lowden Kelly Schoenmakers

No changes for the AFL unless injured or form related, or managed

Douglas Walker Betts
Cameron Jenkins Lynch
Atkins B Crouch Mackay
Brown Hartigan Smith
Cheney Talia Laird

OB
M Crouch
Sloane

Inter - Lever, Seed, CEY, Lyons

 

[1970crow]

I'm pro-rest and pro-vaccines, but I'm not sure if there any documented evidence that resting players improves outcomes whereas there is plenty of evidence that vaccines do.

Premiership winning football departments have done it recently. I expect they're more likely to be on the right track than we are.

 

[King Elvis]

EDIT: he is not even in the top 100 in the comp

This is ****ing great - WW owned, yet again.

 

[Elite Crow]

This is ******* great - WW owned, yet again.

He's gone onto the next subject

 

[marty36]

You've been strongly advocating no rests at all and you were wrong. 2 weeks ago the club said no rests. Why would you be certain that there won't be resting next week?

Yes I didn't think they would rest anyone, and the two dropped for what reason have they been dropped, McGovern seriously doesn't need to be rested he had a bye 5 weeks ago and will due another in 3 weeks, he's 20 years old and needs confidence playing essendon gave him that after a dreadful 3 weeks. Thommo again hasn't been playing well and CEY hasn't been knocking on the door, he has been bashing it down, he may need to get his body right though.

As for no more rests as a coach would you want a bye 5 weeks ago then another in 3 weeks then possibly another 2 weeks after that not really ideal the players dropping that much game time would you give them more rests?

 

[King Elvis]

Yes I didn't think they would rest anyone, and the two dropped for what reason have they been dropped, McGovern seriously doesn't need to be rested he had a bye 5 weeks ago and will due another in 3 weeks, he's 20 years old and needs confidence playing essendon gave him that after a dreadful 3 weeks. Thommo again hasn't been playing well and CEY hasn't been knocking on the door, he has been bashing it down, he may need to get his body right though.

As for no more rests as a coach would you want a bye 5 weeks ago then another in 3 weeks then possibly another 2 weeks after that not really ideal the players dropping that much game time would you give them more rests?

You disagree with a decision Pyke has made?

He can't coach, right？

Do you want him sacked?

 

[1970crow]

Yes I didn't think they would rest anyone, and the two dropped for what reason have they been dropped, McGovern seriously doesn't need to be rested he had a bye 5 weeks ago and will due another in 3 weeks, he's 20 years old and needs confidence playing essendon gave him that after a dreadful 3 weeks. Thommo again hasn't been playing well and CEY hasn't been knocking on the door, he has been bashing it down, he may need to get his body right though.

As for no more rests as a coach would you want a bye 5 weeks ago then another in 3 weeks then possibly another 2 weeks after that not really ideal the players dropping that much game time would you give them more rests?

I'm not a physical performance specialist with experience in managing AFL players. But I do know that a couple of successful clubs have managed player's game time recently and gone on to win flags. I also know the season is described as a marathon and not a sprint. I would assume that the only players who will be managed are those that will derive a performance benefit from it. With regards to the future schedule and the pre-finals bye, it's an unknown, and I doubt anyone on this board has a clue about its impact as it relates to resting.

 

[ad victoriam]

Shit I don't know about that, Sauce has had quite a few really good games this year. Seems to be at the right place at the right time with intercept marks all over the ground. Also despite his ruckman ungainliness, I'm very confident of sauce when he kicks. I don't think this is a trait of ROB unless he has Improved.

ROB ground game has been his biggest improvement this year, He about 40% better than last year, stats don't show that But he is starting to read the game better therefor placing himself in the right place. Kicking and Marking always been good,

 

[RMK3]

Saw Knight at a Toyota dealership autograph signing last night along with Tex. Knight said he'd be back in the SANFL next weekend.

Knight will definitely be back next week. After 2 lots of surgery, he rejoined the main training group this week. He's been training privately, he's fit and he's ready to make an impact. Depending on form in the sanfl over the next few weeks and need at the AFL levels, he's still a real chance for the finals.

 

[ad victoriam]

It's a shame you don't get to see much SANFL in Canberra, if you did your bias against CEY's kicking ability probably wouldn't be what it is. He seems much improved in this area.....anyway we'll see Saturday night I guess, it looks like he'll play.

The SANFL stats have a good system breaking down the Kicks to effective not effective and as I found out recently Clangers. CEY has been in the negative in a lot of games. Handballs he running at 80% Kicks he lucky to get above 50% one game a few week back he ran at 22% of the boot.
So yes I would say his kicking needs improvement.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Knight will definitely be back next week. After 2 lots of surgery, he rejoined the main training group this week. He's been training privately, he's fit and he's ready to make an impact. Depending on form in the sanfl over the next few weeks and need at the AFL levels, he's still a real chance for the finals.

Geez I hope you're right.

Be an added bonus to have a legitimately good 3rd outside mid to add to Atkins and Seedsman…need one of Hampton or Knight to burst into finals calculations.

 

[BRL121]

Knight will definitely be back next week. After 2 lots of surgery, he rejoined the main training group this week. He's been training privately, he's fit and he's ready to make an impact. Depending on form in the sanfl over the next few weeks and need at the AFL levels, he's still a real chance for the finals.

I doubt it. He won't have a long enough run at it to get back to our AFL standard before the finals.

 

[marty36]

You disagree with a decision Pyke has made?

He can't coach, right？

Do you want him sacked?

I like pyke very level headed don't care if he picks Mackay if he thinks he's the best choice for the team

 

[TrainRoo32]

This is ******* great - WW owned, yet again.

Look, I'm no footy expert! What I am is an afc tragic! I understand there is something coaches like in the bloke otherwise 5 wouldn't have kept him on!
But quite frankly, here we have a 150+ senior player who plays like a 2nd year a player...... It's disappointing and extremely frustrating

 

[1970crow]

I doubt it. He won't have a long enough run at it to get back to our AFL standard before the finals.

Not convinced that is a certainty. He's a known aerobic animal and I'm sure would have been working his ass off waiting for the all clear to start running again. Depending on his injury, he may have been running in straight lines for a few weeks. He could come to hand pretty quickly and provide an option if form or injury necessitate in a couple of weeks. It won't be easy, because at present he would need to push past all 3 of Mackay, Seed and Hendo for a wing type role or dislodge Dougie if his form was to ever be held to account. But, if we drop an insider and it opens up another spot plus any of those 4 are injured, he might very well be right in the mix. Genuine footballers with fit and fresh bodies are not to be sneezed at come September.

 

[1970crow]

The SANFL stats have a good system breaking down the Kicks to effective not effective and as I found out recently Clangers. CEY has been in the negative in a lot of games. Handballs he running at 80% Kicks he lucky to get above 50% one game a few week back he ran at 22% of the boot.
So yes I would say his kicking needs improvement.

It would be worth comparing that to our AFL mids. Off the top of my head they run at about 70% effective. You'd expect most handballs to be effective, so on average you'd be expecting efficiency by foot to be running around the 40% mark. Actually, I've got a bit of time. I'm assuming all players are 90% effective by hand. Effective kicking % based on that assumption;

eff kick % contested %
Kyle Cheney 75.9% 34%
Nathan Van Berlo 75.4% 31%
Rory Laird 72.2% 33%
Luke Brown 70.9% 31%
Josh Jenkins 69.6% 48%
Daniel Talia 69.2% 35%
Jake Lever 68.4% 35%
Ricky Henderson 68.0% 28%
Paul Seedsman 67.2% 24%
Kyle Hartigan 66.9% 33%
Wayne Milera 65.3% 39%
Taylor Walker 64.5% 43%
Brodie Smith 63.6% 26%
Mitch McGovern 62.0% 45%
Rory Atkins 60.8% 32%
Eddie Betts 60.8% 52%
Richard Douglas 57.7% 43%
Charlie Cameron 54.7% 46%
Tom Lynch 54.5% 40%
Jarryd Lyons 51.1% 49%
David Mackay 50.7% 35%
Sam Jacobs 47.8% 41%
Cam Ellis-Yolmen 46.8% 57% ***2015****
Rory Sloane 43.1% 52%
Matt Crouch 41.0% 46%
Scott Thompson 36.8% 45%
Brad Crouch 32.8% 48%

Nothing unexpected there. Defenders always run the highest disposal efficiency and then the pressure and available space gets less, making it much harder to execute as you get closer to your own goals. Then there's the inside midfielders who are almost always working where there's little time and space. I don't think there'd be many outliers who are either that good or poor by hand that they're not correctly positioned in that table. In essence, if you think someone goes at 100% by hand, then drop them down a spot on that list and if you think they're really poor by hand, then push them up a bit. Gut feel is that Mackay might be a bit of an outlier, I reckon he butchers more handballs than most, so he'd probably lob somewhere between Dougie and CC for kicking.

Of course, someone here probably has access to actual kicking efficiency stats and will post them somewhere.

Oh, and back to the point, I doubt CEY's kicking is a problem. I'm continued to be surprised that people want to judge him from the little of the SANFL they see when he played 11 games at AFL level last year and his kicking never looked overly poor at any time.

Seeing those numbers, it would be remiss of me to not highlight that the most obvious outlier. In the lower band for effective kicking rate, but also in the bottom 3rd for contested possessions.

The next table is is very simple and a stats guru can tell me why it is meaningless, I'm sure it's to do with using ratios to form a whole number. Anyway, my presumption is that on average the less the amount of contested possessions, the higher the efficiency, so broadly, if shown seperately the orders should reverse when shown from highest to lowest. Which made me think, what if there's a player with high contested numbers but also high efficiency, wouldn't they be pretty good. So, being a simpleton when it comes to such matters, I decided to add the numbers together, multiply by 100 for readability sake and re-sort giving me a rating for something. Does it mean anything, I highly doubt it. It still leaves the inside mids largely towards the bottom, but a few shifting around the place. I like that Mackay is down the bottom in what I'm now coining his "pressure kick rating".

Josh Jenkins 118
Eddie Betts 113
Kyle Cheney 110
Taylor Walker 108
Mitch McGovern 107
Nathan Van Berlo 106
Rory Laird 105
Daniel Talia 105
Wayne Milera 104
Jake Lever 104
Cam Ellis-Yolmen 104
Luke Brown 102
Jarryd Lyons 100
Richard Douglas 100
Charlie Cameron 100
Kyle Hartigan 100
Ricky Henderson 96
Rory Sloane 95
Tom Lynch 94
Rory Atkins 93
Paul Seedsman 92
Brodie Smith 90
Sam Jacobs 89
Matt Crouch 87
David Mackay 86
Scott Thompson 82
Brad Crouch 80

Obviously, this is coffee talking because it builds as I go. Above is just kicking, so what happens when we just take into account all contested possessions. The table is a bit different, because it disperses players all over the place, but what is really odd is that an entire group of player type all exist at the bottom of the table.

Cam Ellis-Yolmen 124
Josh Jenkins 124
Eddie Betts 122
Rory Sloane 120
Mitch McGovern 119
Jarryd Lyons 117
Matt Crouch 116
Kyle Cheney 116
Taylor Walker 115
Wayne Milera 115
Rory Laird 114
Richard Douglas 114
Daniel Talia 113
Brad Crouch 112
Charlie Cameron 112
Nathan Van Berlo 111
Jake Lever 111
Scott Thompson 111
Kyle Hartigan 110
Luke Brown 109
Tom Lynch 109
Sam Jacobs 108
Rory Atkins 106
Ricky Henderson 106
David Mackay 103
Paul Seedsman 101
Brodie Smith 100

So I guess the value of the bottom 5 is what they bring when they've got the ball on the outside. So here's the rating using uncontested possessions and effective disposals. Seed goes to the top, which isn't surprising and we see the other 4 all move up towards the top and our inside head back towards the bottom. I guess explaining why they're inside, because even when they get outside, they're not that good with ball in hand.

Paul Seedsman 153
Kyle Cheney 151
Nathan Van Berlo 150
Rory Laird 149
Luke Brown 147
Brodie Smith 144
Kyle Hartigan 143
Ricky Henderson 143
Rory Atkins 143
Daniel Talia 142
Jake Lever 141
Wayne Milera 140
David Mackay 135
Taylor Walker 131
Richard Douglas 131
Mitch McGovern 131
Tom Lynch 130
Josh Jenkins 130
Charlie Cameron 125
Sam Jacobs 125
Matt Crouch 125
Jarryd Lyons 121
Scott Thompson 119
Brad Crouch 117
Rory Sloane 116
Eddie Betts 115
Cam Ellis-Yolmen 113

What a waste of 2 hours, I got to work at 4.30am because I woke up at 3.30am and couldn't get to sleep and I've just wasted my time doing that.

Anyway, Mackay seems to be at the bottom in just about every table, so I'm confident there's something legitimate to be taken from them.