Recommitted Clayton Oliver [re-signed until 2030]

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

How many times has this rumour been denied by all parties involved???

How many times has something like that happened, only for it to eventuate?
3 of our best ITK posters have all chimed in this arvo to add fuel to the fire. Where there's smoke, there's fire. Doesn't mean it will eventuate, but there's obviously something in it.
Biggest hurdle appears to be finding the correct chips to satisfy Dees, which would be expected.

 

[Prochard123]

How many times has something like that happened, only for it to eventuate?
3 of our best ITK posters have all chimed in this arvo to add fuel to the fire. Where there's smoke, there's fire. Doesn't mean it will eventuate, but there's obviously something in it.
Biggest hurdle appears to be finding the correct chips to satisfy Dees, which would be expected.

I think the question is, how many times has someting like this happened, only for it NOT TO EVENTUATE?

Not sure what ITK means, don't even think it matters. And on bigfooty, smoke is often just smoke.

 

[markm106]

What's Tom's strike rate like? I'm tipping Ockham's Razor's is higher.
A deal would be quite tricky to get across the line. A contracted Oliver would cost a fair bit, and rightly so.
The rumour is that a deal wouldn't be able to get done IF Saad ends up coming to us in the PSD (not the preferred way of getting him, but we are talking about Dodoro), presumably because we would have to restructure Saad's deal to heavily front load it so that other clubs won't be as tempted to swoop in. This would presumably mean there isn't enough money left in the kitty for Oliver.

If Saad comes via trade, leaving the money available for Oliver, the Blues would still need to come up with the appropriate picks/players to satisfy the Dees (after already using some of those picks to satisfy Essendon). So it would still be a very difficult process to get it all over the line.

Given all that, it's not unreasonable to assume that Oliver wants it all played out behind closed doors until there's some certainty over a deal getting done, on the chance that he has to stay.

Everyone's welcome to put as much weight as they'd like in the Carlton board rumour and in Tom's, but the above scenario is a fair and reasonable assessment of what MAY be going down in the background.

I have no idea who Ockham's Razor is. Please tell me of what he has got right previously. And not stuff that was already floating around.
Tom Morris, Sam Edmund and Garry Lyon I’m more likely to believe all of them mate. They have actual connections to list managers and player managers etc.

 

[markm106]

The thing with ITKs is its easy to say a deal fell through etc. not saying some don’t have genuine info. But there’s plenty of ITKs who’ve never got a thing right.

 

[Brutalitops]

Exactly. Let’s all take a break and enjoy the GF this weekend.

Cant. Hate both Cats and Tiges. Want them both to lose.

I have no idea who Ockham's Razor is. Please tell me of what he has got right previously. And not stuff that was already floating around.
Tom Morris, Sam Edmund and Garry Lyon I’m more likely to believe all of them mate. They have actual connections to list managers and player managers etc.

Before he started posting on BigFooty he was posting on TalkingCarlton for a looooong time. TC is an eyesore but thats where he built his rep. People would quote him from there and say OR said this. And then a week later itd be breaking news on channel 7 and then itd happen. The guy is Keyser Soze. But even he stipulated the conditions which would outright prevent a trade, Saad goes to draft then its no chance.

B70 has runs on the board and broke that we were taking Shiel on a private jet to Noosa AT LEAST a week ahead of the news. Amongst others of course.

Having said that, i still dont see a deal happening.

 

[PrinceCharles]

The thing with ITKs is its easy to say a deal fell through etc. not saying some don’t have genuine info. But there’s plenty of ITKs who’ve never got a thing right.

B70 is not one of those.

 

[gawndog37]

If Carlton actually wanted him they have to come up to the party with a deal that blows Melbourne away, I'm yet to see that with any trade suggestions yet. You can rule out Dow/O'brien/McGovern/Kennedy Melbourne would have no interest in them at all. The only way I could see it getting done and Carlton still having something to get Saad would be: Carlton split pick 7 with Geelong for 11 and 18. 18 gets involved in a Saad deal. Carlton send 11, future first, and Petrevski-Seton to Melbourne for Oliver. It'll take two firsts and player of interest to Melbourne if Carlton actually wants Oliver. Melbourne would also have interest in Kemp and Fisher I'd reckon.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I have no idea who Ockham's Razor is. Please tell me of what he has got right previously. And not stuff that was already floating around.
Tom Morris, Sam Edmund and Garry Lyon I’m more likely to believe all of them mate. They have actual connections to list managers and player managers etc.

Was Garry Lyon not suggesting we were pushing very hard for an A grader a few weeks ago? The rumours today only confirm that’s what he was most likely talking about, considering his obvious links to Melbourne.

Doesn’t mean Oliver is coming, just means there have been talks.

 

[TylerDurden]

If Carlton actually wanted him they have to come up to the party with a deal that blows Melbourne away, I'm yet to see that with any trade suggestions yet. You can rule out Dow/O'brien/McGovern/Kennedy Melbourne would have no interest in them at all. The only way I could see it getting done and Carlton still having something to get Saad would be: Carlton split pick 7 with Geelong for 11 and 18. 18 gets involved in a Saad deal. Carlton send 11, future first, and Petrevski-Seton to Melbourne for Oliver. It'll take two firsts and player of interest to Melbourne if Carlton actually wants Oliver. Melbourne would also have interest in Kemp and Fisher I'd reckon.

Surely pick 7 and a future first would get it done??

 

[markm106]

Was Garry Lyon not suggesting we were pushing very hard for an A grader a few weeks ago? The rumours today only confirm that’s what he was most likely talking about, considering his obvious links to Melbourne.

Doesn’t mean Oliver is coming, just means there have been talks.

Garry Lyon may have said that. But he also said he did digging around and there’s no way from what he heard that Oliver will be going to leave this year.

 

[markm106]

Surely pick 7 and a future first would get it done??

You’d think it sounds like it. However Goodwin and Mahoney have their jobs on the line. Two first rounders don’t help Melbourne make finals next year. Oliver does. Almost like signing your job away for those blokes to let him go unless a top end talent is coming back our way.

 

[Critter]

Maybe next year when he's out of contract.

Melbourne's list is past the 'compiling picks' stage, and for 2021 they will not be giving up a player who owns the club's all-time top 3 season disposal tallies, for unknown entities.

There is no logic in a team, with the timeline Melbourne has, giving up their 23yo 2x Best and Fairest and All-Australian for anything other than complete overs at this point.

 

[Monkey King]

Tom Morris, Sam Edmund and Garry Lyon I’m more likely to believe all of them mate. They have actual connections to list managers and player managers etc.

When it comes to something involving Carlton, I would believe b20 before any of those guys. His strike rate is solid and ahead of news reports.

I can't see how this gets done. Carlton would have to give up a key player to get this over the line and they don't have the list strength to give up a key player at this time. If this turns out to be true, I'd almost be disappointed the club went after someone so unobtainable.

 

[TylerDurden]

You’d think it sounds like it. However Goodwin and Mahoney have their jobs on the line. Two first rounders don’t help Melbourne make finals next year. Oliver does. Almost like signing your job away for those blokes to let him go unless a top end talent is coming back our way.

Pick 7 could be a Phillips or a Bruhn who could play senior footy in the midfield very early. You've already got Viney, Petracca, Brayshaw and Harmes on rotation. Plus their first next year.
If Clarry wants out, I'm doing that.
Perhaps they could throw in Fisher on top.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Garry Lyon may have said that. But he also said he did digging around and there’s no way from what he heard that Oliver will be going to leave this year.

Ultimately Melbourne have the whip in hand. It’s obvious we are pushing hard for a 3rd big addition and it seems Oliver is it. He still may well be disgruntled. He might not even be disgruntled and just open to a potential move. The current landscape is more accommodating than ever.

I don’t think the Dees will trade him, we won’t be giving up McKay or Charlie or Walsh so why would they, but where there’s smoke there’s fire.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Pick 7 could be a Phillips or a Bruhn who could play senior footy in the midfield very early. You've already got Viney, Petracca, Brayshaw and Harmes on rotation. Plus their first next year.
If Clarry wants out, I'm doing that.
Perhaps they could throw in Fisher on top.

Thing is that first next year does not look all that valuable to Melbourne if they are adding Saad, Oliver and Williams.

 

[PrinceCharles]

If Carlton actually wanted him they have to come up to the party with a deal that blows Melbourne away, I'm yet to see that with any trade suggestions yet. You can rule out Dow/O'brien/McGovern/Kennedy Melbourne would have no interest in them at all. The only way I could see it getting done and Carlton still having something to get Saad would be: Carlton split pick 7 with Geelong for 11 and 18. 18 gets involved in a Saad deal. Carlton send 11, future first, and Petrevski-Seton to Melbourne for Oliver. It'll take two firsts and player of interest to Melbourne if Carlton actually wants Oliver. Melbourne would also have interest in Kemp and Fisher I'd reckon.

Would do that deal, as much as I love SPS. Would be trying to get a different player involved if possible.

 

[markm106]

Pick 7 could be a Phillips or a Bruhn who could play senior footy in the midfield very early. You've already got Viney, Petracca, Brayshaw and Harmes on rotation. Plus their first next year.
If Clarry wants out, I'm doing that.
Perhaps they could throw in Fisher on top.

Draft picks are overrated. We’re talking about a 23yo 2 X best and fairest and an all Australian. It’s reckless if we trade him unless bringing in a top end talent from another club on top of draft picks.

 

[TylerDurden]

Draft picks are overrated. We’re talking about a 23yo 2 X best and fairest and an all Australian. It’s reckless if we trade him unless bringing in a top end talent from another club on top of draft picks.

Similar to the Wingard/ Burton trade?

 

[Devastating Boris]

Thing is that first next year does not look all that valuable to Melbourne if they are adding Saad, Oliver and Williams.

Pick 7 is not looking that flash either given it will slide back to 10-12ish.

 

[00Stinger]

Similar to the Wingard/ Burton trade?

Wingard was coming off a couple of down years, Oliver is coming off an AA squad year

 

[Brutalitops]

If Carlton actually wanted him they have to come up to the party with a deal that blows Melbourne away, I'm yet to see that with any trade suggestions yet. You can rule out Dow/O'brien/McGovern/Kennedy Melbourne would have no interest in them at all. The only way I could see it getting done and Carlton still having something to get Saad would be: Carlton split pick 7 with Geelong for 11 and 18. 18 gets involved in a Saad deal. Carlton send 11, future first, and Petrevski-Seton to Melbourne for Oliver. It'll take two firsts and player of interest to Melbourne if Carlton actually wants Oliver. Melbourne would also have interest in Kemp and Fisher I'd reckon.

MRW SPS suddenly pops up in this post

 

[Jeremias]

I can believe that Oliver is unsettled and that he's expressed a desire to come to Carlton, but that's only one part of the equation here.

For the life of me I can't see Melbourne letting him go or Carlton being able to satisfy the Demons in a trade. You'd think a third club would have to be involved at an absolute minimum.

Very happy to be proven wrong in time but I don't see this one happening. Revisit next year.

 

[Brutalitops]

Would do that deal, as much as I love SPS. Would be trying to get a different player involved if possible.

 

[PrinceCharles]

View attachment 992160

Is that Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

26

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

?