Coaches - The 4 year rule

[Franko Armani]

Something that hasn't been discussed amidst the talk about Hardwick and Richmond, should he or shouldnt he be shown the door. Well, doing some thinking on the matter of Hardwick being coach of the Tigers for 7, going on 8 years I discovered a common theme amongst successful coaches.

The common denominator is that a successful coach (measured here as having made or won a prelim/GF/premiership) always achieves this within a maximum 4 year timeframe, usually even within 3 years the successful coach would have joined the club and at least made a preliminary final with an obvious upward trend.

This obviously renders any coach that has been at a club for 4 seasons and heading into 5 without at least making a prelim, if not a Grand Final, a pointless exercise as history shows us that in the modern game that success will never come. I'm amazed that an AFL club in Richmond can't see the trend for what its worth and do what they need to do. (No offence to Hardwick as he seems like a good bloke).

 

[tommyk72]

Examples?

 

[Franko Armani]

Examples?

Every coach in recent history

 

[Franko Armani]

probably forever actually.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

i do disagree with the assertion that if success comes it comes within 4 years or a coach needs to be shown the door. despite doing a brilliant job brendan bolton wouldn't be sleeping to easily if he took that metric seriously. it looks like beveridge is the right man for the dogs job and will probably get to a prelim in the next 2-3 years. but imagine if he took ever when bulldogs began the rebuild in 2012 with brendan mccartney. no way he would have made a prelim by now. the stage the club is at in it's cycle needs to be considered.

but that said, dimma isn't rebuilding a team anymore, if he hasn't got them seriously challenging by this stage then he probably is never going to. needs to be moved on.

 

[Franko Armani]

i do disagree with the assertion that if success comes it comes within 4 years or a coach needs to be shown the door. despite doing a brilliant job brendan bolton wouldn't be sleeping to easily if he took that metric seriously. it looks like beveridge is the right man for the dogs job and will probably get to a prelim in the next 2-3 years. but imagine if he took ever when bulldogs began the rebuild in 2012 with brendan mccartney. no way he would have made a prelim by now. the stage the club is at in it's cycle needs to be considered.

but that said, dimma isn't rebuilding a team anymore, if he hasn't got them seriously challenging by this stage then he probably is never going to. needs to be moved on.

Sorry, I don't agree. I don't believe in waiting for something that is never going to happen.

I would be certain that Bolton and Beveridge would have the 4 year rule on paper as part of their plan for success and would agree that anything less would be a failure in their minds.

If we go through history, it's actually a proven rule. After looking through the history books I now believe that waiting for more than 3 years for a coach to have some success and at least a PF/GF by 4th year is just waiting in vain and celebrating mediocrity.

 

[Ian Dunross]

I'm no huge Hardwick fan

But in his defence, the executive's plan seems to have revolved around making finals, not winning flags - the 3, 75 in 5 plan

 

[barmy44]

Every coach in recent history

probably forever actually.

except mark thompson...

 

[BF Tiger]

Maybe we should have stuck with Spud Frawley.

 

[Engimal v2]

2000 premiership: - (Sheedy won in 1984)
2001 premeirship: Brisbane (Leigh Matthews, 2nd year)
2002 premiership: See 2001
2003 premiership: See 2001
2004 premiership: Port Adelaide (Mark Williams, 5th year)
2005 premiership: Sydney (Paul Roos, 3rd year)
2006 premiership: West Coast (John Worsfold, 4th year)
2007 premiership: Geelong (Mark Thompson, 7th year)
2008 premiership: Hawthorn (Alistair Clarkson, 3rd year)
2009 premiership: See 2007
2010 premiership: Collingwood (Mick Malthouse, 10th year)
2011 premiership: Geelong (Chris Scott, 1st year)
2012 premiership: Sydney (John Longmire, 2nd year)
2013 premiership: See 2008
2014 premiership: See 2008
2015 premiership: See 2008

So 6 out of 10 coaches match your criteria, with Sheedy and Malthouse (19th and 10th years as coaches) being big outliers.

EDIT: Just noticed that the OP said that success is measured by either a prelim or a premiership. This table only shows premierships, but still a good track record for his theory.

 

[Ian Dunross]

Thompson made a prelim in his 4th year didn't he?

 

[barmy44]

Thompson made a prelim in his 4th year didn't he?

5th year.

 

[vicpride]

except mark thompson...

Nope preliminary 04

Sent from my GT-I8730 using Tapatalk

 

[Franc de Borges]

Excellent thread. Mark Thompson (prelim in 5th season) is the only exception I can think of.

 

[Ian Dunross]

Out by one year

I think the op's point remains pretty valid

 

[Franc de Borges]

2000 premiership: Essendon (Kevin Sheedy, 19th year)
2001 premeirship: Brisbane (Leigh Matthews, 2nd year)
2002 premiership: See 2001
2003 premiership: See 2001
2004 premiership: Port Adelaide (Mark Williams, 5th year)
2005 premiership: Sydney (Paul Roos, 3rd year)
2006 premiership: West Coast (John Worsfold, 4th year)
2007 premiership: Geelong (Mark Thompson, 7th year)
2008 premiership: Hawthorn (Alistair Clarkson, 3rd year)
2009 premiership: See 2007
2010 premiership: Collingwood (Mick Malthouse, 10th year)
2011 premiership: Geelong (Chris Scott, 1st year)
2012 premiership: Sydney (John Longmire, 2nd year)
2013 premiership: See 2008
2014 premiership: See 2008
2015 premiership: See 2008

So 6 out of 10 coaches match your criteria, with Sheedy and Malthouse (19th and 10th years as coaches) being big outliers.

They both made at least prelims in their first four years as a coach though.

In Malthouse's case the trend continued at two new clubs. Same with Matthews at Brisbane.

 

[Franko Armani]

Adam Simpson (WCE) 2014 - 2015 (GF) 2016 ?
John Longmire (Syd) 2011 - 2012 (Premiership) - 2013 - 2014 (GF) 2015 - 2016?
Ross Lyon (Freo) 2012 (SF) - 2013 (GF) - 2014 - 2015 (minor) 2016 ?
Chris Scott (Geel) 2011 (Premiership) - 2016
MIck Malthouse (Coll) 2000 - 2001 - 2002 (GF)

The list goes on....

 

[barmy44]

Nope preliminary 04

Sent from my GT-I8730 using Tapatalk

which was his 5th year. finished 12th with 7 wins in his 4th year.

 

[Franko Armani]

They both made at least prelims in their first four years as a coach though.

thanks for the correction there Franc. The poster was wrong.

 

[Engimal v2]

They both made at least prelims in their first four years as a coach though.

You must have just snuck in before my edit.

 

[Franko Armani]

I think Thompson and Geelong is the only anomaly and its been well documented about the Coach and culture shift that had to take place to wright the ship down there.

What I mean is they could see the potential and identify what was wrong and they got it 100% right.

 

[Franc de Borges]

Technically Leigh Matthews didn't make a prelim/GF until his 5th season, though it was his 4th FULL season.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Sorry, I don't agree. I don't believe in waiting for something that is never going to happen.

I would be certain that Bolton and Beveridge would have the 4 year rule on paper as part of their plan for success and would agree that anything less would be a failure in their minds.

If we go through history, it's actually a proven rule. After looking through the history books I now believe that waiting for more than 3 years for a coach to have some success and at least a PF/GF by 4th year is just waiting in vain and celebrating mediocrity.

it'd be a fair clause for beveridge but you can't tell me that you'd sack bolton if carlton weren't in a prelim by 2019.

 

[Franc de Borges]

it'd be a fair clause for beveridge but you can't tell me that you'd sack bolton if carlton weren't in a prelim by 2019.

Perhaps if we're not then the culture hasn't changed significantly enough. By the end of 2019 he'll have coached at least 88 games.

 

[Franko Armani]

A Clarkson (HAW) 2005 - 2006 - 2007 (SF) - 2008 (Premiership) .....
J Worsfold (WCE) 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 (GF) - 2006 (Premiership)......
M Williams (Port) 1999 - 2000 - 2001 (SF) - 2002 (PF) 2003 (PF) - 2004 (Premiership)
Leigh Matthews (Bris) 1999 (PF) - 2000 (SF) - 2001 (Premier) 2002 (premier) 2003 (premier) 2004 (GF) .....

Parkin - Premiership in year 2 at Hawks (78), B2b at carlton first 2 seasons 81/82.