Opinion Collingwood will return to finals footy in 2023

[Gysberts2Bate]

You’d make me rich if you fed me your bets with these calls.

ps: not being a smartarse. Reckon Pies to finish bottom 4 would’ve paid alright at the start of this season and it wouldn’t be bad odds for Pies to win the wooden spoon in 2022.

You could do worse than put money on the Pies for the spoon in 2022, at least you’d get some money and an actual first round pick out of it.

 

[PieLebo87]

Not sure why Moore is listed at FB when he is an All Australian CHB.

Maynard is definitely not a CHB.

The traditional FF/CHF positions are non existent nowadays with defenders manning up on like for like forwards anywhere they start inside 50. How many times do we see a JDG start in the goal square for example. Agree with you though that aesthetically Moore should be listed at CHB.

 

[PieLebo87]

You could do worse than put money on the Pies for the spoon in 2022, at least you’d get some money and an actual first round pick out of it.

We haven’t finished this year’s draft/trade period, don’t jump the gun on that first round pick call.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

We haven’t finished this year’s draft/trade period, don’t jump the gun on that first round pick call.

GWS will be licking their lips.

 

[PieLebo87]

Not only a mostly unproven 22 but unproven coach
Good tickets on Craig McRae, but proof will be in the pudding

It’d be a rather boring prediction if it was a proven 22 and proven coach.

 

[PieLebo87]

GWS will be licking their lips.

That swap landed us Henry and points for Reef McInnes so I’m not disappointed just yet.

If the Roos go for Horne with the first pick, it’ll hurt a little more that Collingwood could’ve had the 2nd best kid in this draft + Nick Daicos.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

That swap landed us Henry and points for Reef McInnes so I’m not disappointed just yet.

If the Roos go for Horne with the first pick, it’ll hurt a little more that Collingwood could’ve had the 2nd best kid in this draft + Nick Daicos.

Clubs would have been lining up for pick 2 if you still had it this year, Collingwood could have traded it for basically anyone’s 2022 first rounder or a player like Cerra. Maybe it’s all hindsight, but I think its the most baffling trade I’ve ever seen from a club that’s not Fremantle.

 

[PieLebo87]

Well I don't know if you posted in the preseason ladder prediction thread so won't accuse you of re-writing history. But of those that did, I'd say fewer than 1% predicted Essendon to make finals and probably more than half predicted us to finish bottom 4. The fact that we did gives considerable support to the OP's contention. Given a good injury run , and the not unlikely chance of 2 or 3 of the other contenders for a lower top 8 finish being less fortunate, it's not unreasonable that Collingwood's best side could get up. Possible is of course different from probable. Supporters of Hawthorn, Fremantle, Carlton , St Kilda and of course Richmond can all make cases for their side to move into a finals position which have as much merit as those being put forward by Pies fans here. Coaching and luck with injuries will likely be just as if not more significant than looking at potential best 22s. The Pies certainly played some of their best footy after being freed from the Buckley system and the weight of any expectation. But Adelaide also finished 2020 well in that' nothing to lose' period. It doesnt always translate to progress when the heat goes back on at the start of a new season.

Essendon is the exception, not the rule, but they’re the story of 2021 that gives hope that it is possible, thus my prediction.

It’s funny though, because there is some rewriting of history going on. Very few non Essendon supporters would’ve predicted them to finish top 8. What a turnaround.

 

[PieLebo87]

Clubs would have been lining up for pick 2 if you still had it this year, Collingwood could have traded it for basically anyone’s 2022 first rounder or a player like Cerra. Maybe it’s all hindsight, but I think its the most baffling trade I’ve ever seen from a club that’s not Fremantle.

Poor Freo lol

No pressure on young Ollie Henry, but if he lives upto the hype, that trade will be vindicated.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Clubs would have been lining up for pick 2 if you still had it this year, Collingwood could have traded it for basically anyone’s 2022 first rounder or a player like Cerra. Maybe it’s all hindsight, but I think its the most baffling trade I’ve ever seen from a club that’s not Fremantle.

Was a reckless trade and one that over predicated where they would come and I didn't get where the optimism came from. Lets not forget this was done on draft night and was after losing Stephenson, Treloar, etc. Surely you'd expect a drop backwards, everyone bar Collingwood saw it.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Poor Freo lol

No pressure on young Ollie Henry, but if he lives upto the hype, that trade will be vindicated.

What’s good about the trade is that it won’t be easy for anyone to directly compare outcomes. Even if whoever GWS take this year turns out to be a triple Brownlow winning star the media will just say ‘oh Collingwood wouldn’t have gotten them anyway because of Daicos’ even though it doesn’t really work that way. But plausible deniability goes a long way.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Was a reckless trade and one that over predicated where they would come and I didn't get where the optimism came from. Lets not forget this was done on draft night and was after losing Stephenson, Treloar, etc. Surely you'd expect a drop backwards, everyone bar Collingwood saw it.

Just weird to trade an asset when its value is at its lowest. I’m struggling to place exactly where Collingwood would need to have finished this year to make that deal a win for them.

In that position what you do is hold the pick until draft night, and then when someone bids on Daicos you call around to other clubs and see who is willing to give you the best offer for whatever pick you have, whether it’s pick 2 or 18. They’re very lucky that they didn’t finish last this year, the fans would have been ropeable knowing they could have had Daicos AND pick 1 but 17th and having ‘only’ given away pick 2 at least is confusing enough that they can spin the ‘we would have had to have used the pick on Nick’ line.

 

[Thetrader15]

Was a reckless trade and one that over predicated where they would come and I didn't get where the optimism came from. Lets not forget this was done on draft night and was after losing Stephenson, Treloar, etc. Surely you'd expect a drop backwards, everyone bar Collingwood saw it.

There was a long line up to get the pies pick last year. I was really disappointed the Crows couldn't secure it, we seemed to have been in a good spot for it

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

There was a long line up to get the pies pick last year. I was really disappointed the Crows couldn't secure it, we seemed to have been in a good spot for it

Yeah the Dees had both picks 18 and 19, would have happily offered up both and more or done a much better deal than what GWS gave them.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Just weird to trade an asset when its value is at its lowest. I’m struggling to place exactly where Collingwood would need to have finished this year to make that deal a win for them.

In that position what you do is hold the pick until draft night, and then when someone bids on Daicos you call around to other clubs and see who is willing to give you the best offer for whatever pick you have, whether it’s pick 2 or 18. They’re very lucky that they didn’t finish last this year, the fans would have been ropeable knowing they could have had Daicos AND pick 1 but 17th and having ‘only’ given away pick 2 at least is confusing enough that they can spin the ‘we would have had to have used the pick on Nick’ line.

They would have had to be around where they finished last year to make the trade relatively not awful. I stress the word relatively.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

There was a long line up to get the pies pick last year. I was really disappointed the Crows couldn't secure it, we seemed to have been in a good spot for it

A lot of clubs would have wanted it if it was known to be a firesale lol

 

[HTT]

Hawthorn went 14th, 11th, 5th after getting Clarkson
Richmond went 15th, 12th, 12th, 5th after getting Hardwick
Brisbane went 18th, 15th, 2nd after getting Fagan
Melbourne went 17th, 13th, 11th, 9th after getting Roos (then Goodwin)

Think these are benchmark rebuilds imo. They took lists from a pretty bad situation and turned them into competitive teams in 3-4 years. All these clubs were/have been set up very nicely for a long term run by them, which is what Collingwood really want.

Collingwood's issue is they lack draft picks this year. So they might start a bit slower than these teams in their rebuild. I think 2022 and 2023 will pretty much be write offs in terms of pushing up the ladder. All about building their culture and game plan for the future. Then in 2024 I could see them pushing up out of that bottom 4 but not contending for finals. 2025 onwards I can see them pushing for and playing in finals.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Hawthorn went 14th, 11th, 5th after getting Clarkson
Richmond went 15th, 12th, 12th, 5th after getting Hardwick
Brisbane went 18th, 15th, 2nd after getting Fagan
Melbourne went 17th, 13th, 11th, 9th after getting Roos (then Goodwin)

Think these are benchmark rebuilds imo. They took lists from a pretty bad situation and turned them into competitive teams in 3-4 years. All these clubs were/have been set up very nicely for a long term run by them, which is what Collingwood really want.

Collingwood's issue is they lack draft picks this year. So they might start a bit slower than these teams in their rebuild. I think 2022 and 2023 will pretty much be write offs in terms of pushing up the ladder. All about building their culture and game plan for the future. Then in 2024 I could see them pushing up out of that bottom 4 but not contending for finals. 2025 onwards I can see them pushing for and playing in finals.

Yep around the 2024 range is about the realistic mark. The next 3 years should be about rebuilding not taking short cuts, using top picks in the draft.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Hawthorn went 14th, 11th, 5th after getting Clarkson
Richmond went 15th, 12th, 12th, 5th after getting Hardwick
Brisbane went 18th, 15th, 2nd after getting Fagan
Melbourne went 17th, 13th, 11th, 9th after getting Roos (then Goodwin)

Think these are benchmark rebuilds imo. They took lists from a pretty bad situation and turned them into competitive teams in 3-4 years. All these clubs were/have been set up very nicely for a long term run by them, which is what Collingwood really want.

Collingwood's issue is they lack draft picks this year. So they might start a bit slower than these teams in their rebuild. I think 2022 and 2023 will pretty much be write offs in terms of pushing up the ladder. All about building their culture and game plan for the future. Then in 2024 I could see them pushing up out of that bottom 4 but not contending for finals. 2025 onwards I can see them pushing for and playing in finals.

Correct me if I’m wrong but all of those clubs were already a number of years into a rebuild when those new coaches came on. Collingwood made a GF in 2018, a PF in 2019, and a SF in 2020. This is the first year of their rebuild, just 12 months after they cut a bunch of players (inc a top 5 pick from 4 years ago).

 

[CaptainCaveman]

Just weird to trade an asset when its value is at its lowest. I’m struggling to place exactly where Collingwood would need to have finished this year to make that deal a win for them.

In that position what you do is hold the pick until draft night, and then when someone bids on Daicos you call around to other clubs and see who is willing to give you the best offer for whatever pick you have, whether it’s pick 2 or 18. They’re very lucky that they didn’t finish last this year, the fans would have been ropeable knowing they could have had Daicos AND pick 1 but 17th and having ‘only’ given away pick 2 at least is confusing enough that they can spin the ‘we would have had to have used the pick on Nick’ line.

I’d have no doubt if Pies still held pick 2, North would have called Daicos out at 1

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I’d have no doubt if Pies still held pick 2, North would have called Daicos out at 1

Wouldn't that be good though...you'd literally just match and you'd still have your second rounder basically maybe down a spot or two.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

I’d have no doubt if Pies still held pick 2, North would have called Daicos out at 1

And then you’d live trade pick 2 for a club’s 2022 first rounder

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

It’s pretty remarkable. Collingwood have made four picks in the top 15 since 2014.

- De Goey at 5 in 2014
- Moore at 10 in 2014 (father son)
- Stephenson at 6 in 2017
- Quaynor at 13 in 2018 (academy)

So one player from the open draft that’s still on the list.

 

[Orange crush]

It’s pretty remarkable. Collingwood have made four picks in the top 15 since 2014.

- De Goey at 5 in 2014
- Moore at 10 in 2014 (father son)
- Stephenson at 6 in 2017
- Quaynor at 13 in 2018 (academy)

So one player from the open draft that’s still on the list.

Wow .... trading to get Beams back really burnt them

 

[HTT]

Wouldn't that be good though...you'd literally just match and you'd still have your second rounder basically maybe down a spot or two.

Second pick wouldn't move. You need 2400 points to match a player taken at pick 1, and pick two is worth 2517, so they'd end up with an extra pick in a later round.