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[Robo87]

on the pregame - saw perry was named to open batting with healy being a late 'out' for australia.

quickly took 'perry most runs @8.5 b365. other bookies changed quicker. then i added mooney, lanning, gardiner after that to arb.
4.8u mooney @3.6
4u lanning @4.40
1.2u gardener @8.5 (just as some sort of insurance incase all top 3 somehow collapse)

+nibbles on
0.5u woolvart most runs + perry most runs @30.6
0.5u kapp most runs + perry most runs @36.8
0.5u Luus most runs + perry most runs @46.7
0.2u Tyron most runs + perry most runs @51
(just run out of time to arb doubles with other aus batsmen, otherwise would have done mooney, lannning and gardiner with these 4 SA batsmen too.)

few loses here -13.7u mostly due to mcgrath ruining the party. i thought it was honestly perry/gardners turn for most runs but mcgrath batting at 5 unfortunately stole it. bit unlucky but i should be able to make it back after a few more games.

having a partly blind stab at some most runs WI women and most runs Ireland women. (+ also multi-ing it up with AUS to beat SA)

Matthews, Campbelle, taylor the clear 3 standout highest runs for WI.
Lewis/Prendergast/richardson main 3 scorers for Ireland with hunter and delany just behind them.

Matthews + Lewis + aus to win @13.73 b365
Matthews + Prendergast+ aus to win @17.16
Matthews + richardson + aus to win @19.07
Matthews + hunter + aus to win @24.79
Matthews + delany + aus to win @26.70
Campbelle + Lewis + aus to win @19.62
Campbelle + Prendergast+ aus to win @24.52
Campbelle + richardson + aus to win @27.25
Campbelle + hunter + aus to win @35.42
Campbelle + delany + aus to win @38.15
taylor + Lewis + aus to win @17.62
taylor + Prendergast+ aus to win @22.07
taylor + richardson + aus to win @24.52
taylor + hunter + aus to win @31.88
taylor + delany + aus to win @34.33

5u total on tab, arbbed for roi 54.44%

edit- taylor injured, not playing, subbing her with R williams in batting at 2 or 3.
williams + Lewis + aus to win @21.58
williams + Prendergast+ aus to win @26.97
williams + richardson + aus to win @29.97
williams + hunter + aus to win @38.96
williams + delany + aus to win @41.96

+2.72u

NZ vs SL
NZ most runs- like Bates, Bezuidenhout, Devine (tho struggling with form atm), & A Kerr. arbing again.

3.1u bates @3.9 sb
2u Bezuidenhout @6 sb
2.77u Devine @4.33 b365
1.84u Kerr @6.5 tab (tho tab unavailable to bet due to upgrades at time of this post.)

roi = is only 23% or 2.39u, but feel confident enough here.

 

[Robo87]

NZ vs SL
NZ most runs- like Bates, Bezuidenhout, Devine (tho struggling with form atm), & A Kerr. arbing again.

3.1u bates @3.9 sb
2u Bezuidenhout @6 sb
2.77u Devine @4.33 b365
1.84u Kerr @6.5 tab (tho tab unavailable to bet due to upgrades at time of this post.)

roi = is only 23% or 2.39u, but feel confident enough here.

+2.39u

India v Ireland
having a shot at 'player of the match' tonight- some value there maybe. it will clearly go to an Indian if they beat Ireland easy. It should be 1 of the 6 favourites imo.
batters (i think they'll get votes easier than bowlers if someone makes 50+ runs )
-Mandhana @6.50 b365 boost
-kaur @9 b365
-rodrigues @9 b365
-verma @8.75 sb
bowlers -
-sharma @12 b365
-singh @11.50 sb

6u arbed again for ROI= ~51.3%.

 

[Robo87]

India v Ireland
having a shot at 'player of the match' tonight- some value there maybe. it will clearly go to an Indian if they beat Ireland easy. It should be 1 of the 6 favourites imo.
batters (i think they'll get votes easier than bowlers if someone makes 50+ runs )
-Mandhana @6.50 b365 boost
-kaur @9 b365
-rodrigues @9 b365
-verma @8.75 sb
bowlers -
-sharma @12 b365
-singh @11.50 sb
6u arbed again for ROI= ~51.3%.

ah yeah! early call- Mandhana's got this one in the bag ( with 87.) . Should get +3.08u

 

[Robo87]

late rushed post but trying a 2 game combo arbing on all these

6u total on for Roi: 69%

 

[Robo87]

late rushed post but trying a 2 game combo arbing on all these
View attachment 1613051
6u total on for Roi: 69%

Man I love how predictible women's cricket can be. +4.14u (NSB + Wolvart combo @ 36.97 gets it done)

 

[greyhound punter]

New Zealand v England gets underway early Friday morning.

A day match should increase NZ's chances, especially considering NZ had to start both of their 2 innings under lights in the first test match.

If you believe that you should only bet when you feel that the bookies have their prices wrong, then backing Henry Nicholls to score a 50 @ $5.00 with the TAB is a bet.

28 1st and 2nd innings in New Zealand, this bet has cashed on 12 out of 28 occasions.

Clearly, $5 seems generous.

 

[burge13]

New Zealand v England gets underway early Friday morning.

A day match should increase NZ's chances, especially considering NZ had to start both of their 2 innings under lights in the first test match.

If you believe that you should only bet when you feel that the bookies have their prices wrong, then backing Henry Nicholls to score a 50 @ $5.00 with the TAB is a bet.

28 1st and 2nd innings in New Zealand, this bet has cashed on 12 out of 28 occasions.

Clearly, $5 seems generous.

Good to have you back, Urnie!

 

[Robo87]

double combos of 'player of match' from both womens semi finals games
-from Aus game- gardner, heally, mooney, lanning, madhana, haur, verma, perry
-from england game - Wyatt, NSB, Dunkley, capsey, knight, Ecclestone.
arbing all 48 combos. b365 and sb. 6u total on. for ROI= 80% if successful (4.8units)

 

[Robo87]

separate player of the match bets for England women's game Friday, as England should win- arbing with:
Wyatt @9 b365
N Scriver-Brunt @7.5 b365
Dunkley @11 b365
capsey @13 b365
knight @13 b365
Ecclestone @11 sb
6u total on, ROI: ~75%

 

[Robo87]

double combos of 'player of match' from both womens semi finals games
-from Aus game- gardner, heally, mooney, lanning, madhana, haur, verma, perry
-from england game - Wyatt, NSB, Dunkley, capsey, knight, Ecclestone.
arbing all 48 combos. b365 and sb. 6u total on. for ROI= 80% if successful (4.8units)
View attachment 1614379

-6u

separate player of the match bets for England women's game Friday, as England should win- arbing with:
Wyatt @9 b365
N Scriver-Brunt @7.5 b365
Dunkley @11 b365
capsey @13 b365
knight @13 b365
Ecclestone @11 sb
6u total on, ROI: ~75%

-6u
south africa cause an upset, england fail narrowly and give me another reason to dislike them. fyi britts - player of the match, literally won the game by herself... deserved the player of the match unfortunately.
-Dont think Australia's fielding can ever be as woeful as England's was, im still gonna back Australia to win the final.

 

[Robo87]

a great little shot at a 3 leg multi i think tonight:
-South Africa men to beat WI in odi.
-DC women to beat giants in the IPL
-mumbai indians women to beat UP in the IPL
2u multi @2.78 on sb use bet return special - if 1 leg fails get bonus bets back.
all are quite strong favorites.

+
2u multi SA win, DC women win @1.86 sb
2u multi SA win, mumbai indians women win @1.98 sb

 

[pendlebury_10]

Aus vs. WI 2nd Test

I'm going to have a cheeky nibble on the draw, with $10+ available on the Fair or as an SB Power price to those lucky few.

Hopefully the Aussies bat first and torrential rain arrives from Day 3 onwards.

 

[pendlebury_10]

Fair chance the Windies will be all out by tea now and the Aussies will only have to bat once

 

[juss]

Fair chance the Windies will be all out by tea now and the Aussies will only have to bat once

Rain was/is ever the only chance of this being a draw.

 

[pendlebury_10]

Rain was/is ever the only chance of this being a draw.

It wasn’t about the game going five days, it was more about it going long enough to actually reach day four before the rain comes. Basically going to need two days of no play now (which is what I was hoping for with the original forecast).

 

[Suncraze]

1.5u Draw $6

 

[burge13]

Going to need to lose over 4.5 sessions still for a draw. Is the rain that bad?

 

[ricardogp]

1.5u Draw $6

Over $8 on Sportsbet. Is this a case of just betting on the roulette wheel of bad weather? Or are the agencies slow to catch up?

Sent from my DN2103 using Tapatalk

 

[sohohoho]

Over $8 on Sportsbet. Is this a case of just betting on the roulette wheel of bad weather? Or are the agencies slow to catch up?

Sent from my DN2103 using Tapatalk

books can be slow to adjust to draw prices but isn't the case here as you can simply check Betfair price on it.

market is pretty sharp now regards to weather so unless you are clued in yourself then you are likely not smarter than the market

 

[greyhound punter]

If you believe you should only have a wager when the market makers have messed up their odds. Then this one is for you.

Aus v SA (women's t20l

SA to hit the most sixes @ $4.50 (tab)

Has cashed the last 4/5 t20s head to head between three two teams. The one time it didn't was a tie.

 

[X_box_X]

If you believe you should only have a wager when the market makers have messed up their odds. Then this one is for you.

Aus v SA (women's t20l

SA to hit the most sixes @ $4.50 (tab)

Has cashed the last 4/5 t20s head to head between three two teams. The one time it didn't was a tie.

If you're quick enough, you can usually generate a positive cash out simply by betting on the team that bats first to hit the most sixes. The 'most sixes' odds always shorten for the team batting first. It helps to have Cricinfo and Twitter open half an hour before the opening ball. These sources are best to follow to find out which team bats first.

If you're simply after a +EV bet, then you'll be well positioned to simply ride bets placed on the team batting first to hit most sixes prior to odds shortening for that market. It doesn't guarantee the bet will win, but it will guarantee that you'll be well ahead long term if you follow this rule every time.

My advice to others is to simply not take my word for it, but to follow the market yourself which will confirm the above to be accurate. After several matches you'll quickly grasp how much the most sixes market moves shortly after the toss.

On average you usually have a two minute window to strike before TAB adjusts the odds, so don't think you won't have time. You will.

 

[greyhound punter]

If you're quick enough, you can usually generate a positive cash out simply by betting on the team that bats first to hit the most sixes. The 'most sixes' odds always shorten for the team batting first. It helps to have Cricinfo and Twitter open half an hour before the opening ball. These sources are best to follow to find out which team bats first.

If you're simply after a +EV bet, then you'll be well positioned to simply ride bets placed on the team batting first to hit most sixes prior to odds shortening for that market. It doesn't guarantee the bet will win, but it will guarantee that you'll be well ahead long term if you follow this rule every time.

My advice to others is to simply not take my word for it, but to follow the market yourself which will confirm the above to be accurate. After several matches you'll quickly grasp how much the most sixes market moves shortly after the toss.

On average you usually have a two minute window to strike before TAB adjusts the odds, so don't think you won't have time. You will.

Do you have a record for bets placed with this method?

 

[mozz23]

If you believe you should only have a wager when the market makers have messed up their odds. Then this one is for you.

Aus v SA (women's t20l

SA to hit the most sixes @ $4.50 (tab)

Has cashed the last 4/5 t20s head to head between three two teams. The one time it didn't was a tie.

I can’t get more than a few bucks on but $5.50 at bet365

 

[X_box_X]

RSA batting

Take the $5.50 w B365

 

[sohohoho]

Do you have a record for bets placed with this method?

Its a good angle, similar with highest scoring 1st 6 overs, there are advantages based on who's batting 1st.
These markets come down at most books though and if just sniping the toss then not going to last long betting it at those who don't change it.