T20 WC Cricket Betting

[JuniorWatch]

1U M. O'Dowd o21.5 $1.87 TS
Expecting a big tournament fro Max. Coming into his prime in good form

 

[X_box_X]

1U M. O'Dowd o21.5 $1.87 TS

$1.87!!!!

I was expecting $1.82 lines tbh.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Namibia/SL - Condition Report

Play was called off at Anthony Costa oval yesterday due to water logging (still surface water there) so safe to say there's a bit of moisture around in the park. The ground is a bit better next door at Geelong Cricket Ground and of course it'll be in better nick in the stadium itself. But the ground will still be a lot softer than usual and there'll be a bit of swing early for the team bowling first as the sun starts to burn off the moisture. If any books could be bothered putting up innings runs markets for the game then I'd be looking the unders on Namibia but due to the lack of data around associate nations from the last few years, I think they're waiting to see how the first round plays out.

 

[SirBont]

Namibia/SL - Condition Report

Play was called off at Anthony Costa oval yesterday due to water logging (still surface water there) so safe to say there's a bit of moisture around in the park. The ground is a bit better next door at Geelong Cricket Ground and of course it'll be in better nick in the stadium itself. But the ground will still be a lot softer than usual and there'll be a bit of swing early for the team bowling first as the sun starts to burn off the moisture. If any books could be bothered putting up innings runs markets for the game then I'd be looking the unders on Namibia but due to the lack of data around associate nations from the last few years, I think they're waiting to see how the first round plays out.

Thought under 11.5 sixes is a ok bet with playup

 

[JuniorWatch]

Thought under 11.5 sixes is a ok bet with playup

With what could be a slow outfield, I reckon Namibia u10.5 fours at $2 TAB is a good shout.
Taken a middle with PU/TAB on Total 6's though so ta!

 

[JuniorWatch]

With what could be a slow outfield, I reckon Namibia u10.5 fours at $2 TAB is a good shout.
Taken a middle with PU/TAB on Total 6's though so ta!

10 fours. Bit lucky. Namibia adapted extremely well to those conditions.
Ball was stopping dead in the outfield though like i thought. Would take that bet again.

 

[SirBont]

10 fours. Bit lucky. Namibia adapted extremely well to those conditions.
Ball was stopping dead in the outfield though like i thought. Would take that bet again.

Yeh thought they did well there game not over here Sri Lanka didn’t close well at it all

 

[JuniorWatch]

Yeh thought they did well there game not over here Sri Lanka didn’t close well at it all

Very hard to know what SL are going to do.
If this was in Asia they'd piss it in.
Young team in unique conditions though

 

[X_box_X]

1U M. O'Dowd o21.5 $1.87 TS
Expecting a big tournament fro Max. Coming into his prime in good form

To celebrate the only client who has placed a World Cup bet with us on the opening day of competition, we give you this:

 

[JuniorWatch]

Only market you'll ever need that.
gun

 

[JuniorWatch]

1U M. O'Dowd o21.5 $1.87 TS
Expecting a big tournament fro Max. Coming into his prime in good form

Tick

Namibia/SL - Condition Report

Play was called off at Anthony Costa oval yesterday due to water logging (still surface water there) so safe to say there's a bit of moisture around in the park. The ground is a bit better next door at Geelong Cricket Ground and of course it'll be in better nick in the stadium itself. But the ground will still be a lot softer than usual and there'll be a bit of swing early for the team bowling first as the sun starts to burn off the moisture. If any books could be bothered putting up innings runs markets for the game then I'd be looking the unders on Namibia but due to the lack of data around associate nations from the last few years, I think they're waiting to see how the first round plays out.

Was definitely soft in the outfield and on the pitch with very low scores, very few fours and a the moisture in the pitch making the ball stick in the pitch. I'll do another condition report for tomorrow's games in Geelong.

With what could be a slow outfield, I reckon Namibia u10.5 fours at $2 TAB is a good shout.
Taken a middle with PU/TAB on Total 6's though so ta!

Tick

--- L'il Previews ---

WI/SCOTLAND
Conditions and venue: 10mm in the last 3 days in Hobart which should slow the outfield down a little (nothing like Geelong though) and few showers around today. A 177 true venue average for Bellerive which is pretty high (I made that term up. It’s the average of the (mean + median). Shut up).

WI interestingly have won 62% of games against Tier 1 sides when batting first but only 26% when batting second against all teams. So if we see Scotland put up a decent score of 150 or so, they'll be in the game (So I'll put some on Scotland in play batting second). The WI are erratic at the best of times but have not only gone young into this WC but also have lost one of their best bats in Shemron Hetmyer. They're bound to lose a game they're short favourites in at some point. They have the highest ratio of 6's per total so I'm waiting to lay their totals at the bigger grounds against certain teams.


Scotland have had a very light schedule like a lot of associate teams with the last few years of covid but have a good record in international competition. You know what they’re like. Freedom... death to to English etc.

It's a bit tough trying to cap first innings runs (especially SCO) with the lack of data but we'll have a crack.
SCO: 146.5
WI: 165.5


ZIMBABS/IRELAND
Zimbabwe have been pure dog shart in T20s lately and not great in ODIs either however people's most recent memory will be of them beating Australia in Townsville in a match no one was watching except maybe NYRB.

Zimbabwe absolutely hate chasing (which is also harder in AUS) with only 20% winning record when batting second against Tier 2 teams, so will have an extra hard time if Ireland put something up. Ireland win 64% of the time they bat first against Tier 2 sides.

A rare statistical treat for these times in that we actually have a recent (ish) series to look at. Last year Ireland won 3-2 and got a hold of the ZIM bowling a few times. In saying that, all 5 games were in Ireland. If you're looking for Irish conditions, look no further than Hobart in a La Niña year.

I'll be laying some cheese on the Irish if they bat first. Their price with probably lengthen post toss so might pay to wait.

We've got some better data with first innings runs with these 2 teams so a little more confident with these.
ZIM: 144.5
IRE: 153.5

 

[JuniorWatch]

Scotland closing first innings line 146.5

0.5U Scotland $6.86 TS

 

[JuniorWatch]

0.5U Scotland $6.86 TS

Nice.

0.76U M. O'Dowd o24.5 $2.30 TAB

That is a bemusing decision to bowl first from the Irish

 

[mouncey2franklin]

How much were the Scottish paying ftw pre match?

I feel like a mug for not seeing this one a mile away.

 

[JuniorWatch]

How much were the Scottish paying ftw pre match?

I feel like a mug for not seeing this one a mile away.

They were about $7 before the game. Shortened slightly after the toss.
My bet was just after the toss.

 

[NYRB]

Ladbrokes dont like me. They have capped most of my cricket bets for a bet profit of $100 only (got a couple of bets, one with a stake of $0.67 and the other $4)

 

[NYRB]

Player Performance Lines from PointsBet for Namibia v Netherlands:

Michael Van Lingen Under 18.5 $1.87 v $1.87 Michael Van Lingen Over 18.5
Divan La utensil Under 17.5 $1.87 v $1.87 Divan La utensil Over 17.5
Stephan Baard Under 20.5 $1.87 v $1.87 Stephan Baard Over 20.5
Jan Frylinck Under 28.5 $2.05 v $1.70 Jan Frylinck Over 28.5
David Wiese Under 33.5 $1.87 v $1.87 David Wiese Over 33.5
Vikramjit Singh Under 18.5 $1.87 v $1.87 Vikramjit Singh Over 18.5
Max O'Dowd Under 23.5 $1.87 v $1.87 Max O'Dowd Over 23.5
Bas De Leede Under 33.5 $2 v $1.75 Bas de Leede Over 33.5
Roelof van der Merwe Under 24.5 $1.87 v $1.87 Roelof van Der Merwe Over 24.5
Logan van Beek Under 24.5 $1.87 v $1.87 Logan van Beek Over 24.5
Fred Klaasen Under 23.5 $1.87 v $1.87 Fred Klaasen Over 23.5

 

[NYRB]

Decided to have a nibble on David Wiese at TAB to be Player of the Match in Namibia v Netherlands. He got the gig last year in 2021 and he can clearly that 33.5 performance line with either bat or ball.

O'Dowd at TAB is 8 is too short , but is the Dutch best bat. Cooper is past it for me. Frylinck played well in the first game but I sense the Dutch would have done their homework on him.

Its a toss of the coin this game for me. But Namibia will be backing themselves and their confidence will be higher than the Dutch I feel.

 

[NYRB]

I actually went to the first ever T20 International played at Geelong in 2017. Game was played between Sri Lanka and Australia. It was a game played in February when the footy season wasn't on. Remember that the ball was coming off the bat very well that particular night. (maybe the calibre of teams is better than these qualifying teams).

 

[JuniorWatch]

Decided to have a nibble on David Wiese at TAB to be Player of the Match in Namibia v Netherlands. He got the gig last year in 2021 and he can clearly that 33.5 performance line with either bat or ball.

O'Dowd at TAB is 8 is too short , but is the Dutch best bat. Cooper is past it for me. Frylinck played well in the first game but I sense the Dutch would have done their homework on him.

Its a toss of the coin this game for me. But Namibia will be backing themselves and their confidence will be higher than the Dutch I feel.

Like this. $14's is good for Wiese.

NAM/NETH
Conditions
There's been mostly sun in Geelong in the past 2 days and some of the moisture has burnt off the surface. The outfields in Kardinia Park have improved about 40-50% but they're still wet to the touch as the sun brings the moisture out. Generally this means a bit more humidity, more swing but a heavier ball towards the end of the innings (which we saw with Munsey struggling to get it off the square on Sunday after the shine wore off.

Teams learned pretty quickly how to bowl on this surface after SL got carter every which way in the power-play. Expect more short of a length bowling as the ball grips in the surface and some more conservative batting. Teams will try and counter this by hitting aerially square of the wicket to the short boundaries.

Innings Runs
These numbers aren't heavily weighted enough to the recent results and the state of the outfield and hence the discrepancy with TAB. So I'll leave it for now as I'm not confident on the overs and i think they've got it about right tbh.

NAM: 157.5
NETH: 149.5

Strategy
We've seen in the first few games that there's an advantage to batting first on these wickets. Ireland really shooting themselves in the foot yesterday by ignoring the conditions and the stats. Namibia are excellent at defending a total (78% win record last 18 months) and if they bat first, I'll b e putting a sprinkle on them. Already got a little on O'Dowd and like NYRB's value bet on Wiese.

 

[iluvparis]

Rare to see Sri Lanka at $1.12 on the TAB when they can be layed at $1.10 on Betfair

 

[JuniorWatch]

1U Namibia $1.77 BF
1U NETH u10.5 4's $1.75 TAB

 

[NYRB]

Namibia over 190 runs at odds of 13/1 against Netherlands


My thinking behind the bet, is if the Namibians can score 163 against Sri Lanka. Than who knows what they could post against this Dutch attack.

 

[NYRB]

In 8 innings at Kardinia Park in the Big Bash, 2 times has 190+ been posted batting 1st.

So in my books that $14 is value from my side.

 

[NYRB]

Sportsbet at the time of writing this post, have crunched the over 190 runs into $13