Analysis Danger on Tim Kelly + his 2020 contract

[Landgraft]

Not the Eagles 1st & thats why no deal has been done. Plenty of clubs that he may be worth their first .... not rocket science, no one dudding anyone.

Your first isn't even that valuable. Get over yourself and prepare to let go of the mid teen pick, JFC.

I know your club thought they could get it done with a spray of mid range selections last year, but doubt they'd bother with that strategy again when the time comes. If they want to keep their kids then it'll probably just be the first and everyone will move on. TK is still worth more than that to both clubs.

 

[foxdog50]

So you reckon the decision is about footy not home life, is it or maybe it is what you want to believe somehow taking it as a reflection on your footy club, its not a reflection for even one moment.



Not the Eagles 1st & thats why no deal has been done. Plenty of clubs that he may be worth their first .... not rocket science, no one dudding anyone.

The reason IMO is why we wanted a pick so high in the top 10 is that the club thinks they are a still chance of winning this year's flag, and they think he is a big part of helping them do this, I'm not say we are going to win the flag but I feel the club think they can.. I still think his worth a 1st round pick eg if it's a pick 15 ish and maybe swap our 3rd round pick with your 2 Nd round pick...

 

[Turbocat]

The reason IMO is why we wanted a pick so high in the top 10 is that the club thinks they are a still chance of winning this year's flag, and they think he is a big part of helping them do this, I'm not say we are going to win the flag but I feel the club think they can.. I still think his worth a 1st round pick eg if it's a pick 15 ish and maybe swap our 3rd round pick with your 2 Nd round pick...

For sure ..I think the club know that with this groups elite players so close to the edge of the cliff , so close that perhaps 2019 is their last chance. So adding a kid ..even a quality kid instead of Kelly was not ideal. Kelly , someone good enough to almost win the B&F would be thought of someone who could enhance the 2019 season even if it meant less as a trade down the track. Perhaps if the pick was good enough to get a premium kid , the club would have worn it and done it.

Of course there are plenty that would say that cliff is already behind us. So many sides with more alluring lists .. I haven't seen any predictions that say we are top 2 for example so the best prediction I have seen is a PF. Early days.. and we will probably know after 8 games or so , a third of the way into the seaosn if it was the right choice to keep TK , as imo we will probably get less at year end unless he has an even better season.

 

[Turbocat]

Your first isn't even that valuable. Get over yourself and prepare to let go of the mid teen pick, JFC.

I know your club thought they could get it done with a spray of mid range selections last year, but doubt they'd bother with that strategy again when the time comes. If they want to keep their kids then it'll probably just be the first and everyone will move on. TK is still worth more than that to both clubs.

They do not have any restriction trading it... as they had an R1 in 2016 and 2017 .. so it just gets down to an assessment of who they think they can get for the pick they end up having... If they are Premiers again... what would it be P20 or so maybe later.. One would have to think a side post 2 flags would be very much interested in trading P20 for another best22 player ... but if its much earlier who knows.Probably depends on who else is out there that want to go to them Coniglio is a FA for example.

and then what do we accept is push comes to shove. The Freo thing is a hope I suppose.. if they improve enough to make them more attractive they will have more to offer. A better year from Freo and an off year from WC is probably ideal.

 

[Kwality]

If it was just about Home he would be playing for Freo now... its more like ... I want home at a specific club that is a certain standard..

I think you better hope that a player or two appeal cause if you are not prepared to trade your R1 it can get ugly... and if Freo are interested and he can be convinced they are an option then he wil will not be going for less.

Yep, unless there is a change in Tims value its hard to see a deal done. There will be a different take on value at seasons end .>.

 

[Kwality]

Your first isn't even that valuable. Get over yourself and prepare to let go of the mid teen pick, JFC.

I know your club thought they could get it done with a spray of mid range selections last year, but doubt they'd bother with that strategy again when the time comes. If they want to keep their kids then it'll probably just be the first and everyone will move on. TK is still worth more than that to both clubs.

For you its a mid teen pick, to the Eagles its their first pick.
First pick is a valuable in list management terms.

 

[Kwality]

The reason IMO is why we wanted a pick so high in the top 10 is that the club thinks they are a still chance of winning this year's flag, and they think he is a big part of helping them do this, I'm not say we are going to win the flag but I feel the club think they can.. I still think his worth a 1st round pick eg if it's a pick 15 ish and maybe swap our 3rd round pick with your 2 Nd round pick...

I'm no fan of draftees playing the go home card, IF it were that simple I would not like the Eagles using it, see what happened to Brisbane when the likes of Elliot Yeo bailed out en masse. We won out of it sure but it remains a blight on the mamagers who pulled the strings behind the scenes, just as we saw with Kellys manager.
We've never heard why Freo was 'no go', bearing in mind Tim was a South Freo boy, a junior from Palmyra, Freo to the gills.
No probs if Kelly were to go to Freo, shame it wasnt done. I'd think the Cats know why Tim has a problem with Freo.

 

[Cataholic]

I'm no fan of draftees playing the go home card, IF it were that simple I would not like the Eagles using it, see what happened to Brisbane when the likes of Elliot Yeo bailed out en masse. We won out of it sure but it remains a blight on the mamagers who pulled the strings behind the scenes, just as we saw with Kellys manager.
We've never heard why Freo was 'no go', bearing in mind Tim was a South Freo boy, a junior from Palmyra, Freo to the gills.
No probs if Kelly were to go to Freo, shame it wasnt done. I'd think the Cats know why Tim has a problem with Freo.

It's been alleged that the problem lays with his partner, not Tim himself

 

[Down at K Park]

It's been alleged that the problem lays with his partner, not Tim himself

This whole issue of wanting to go to wc lays with her. Tim’s happy here.

 

[Kwality]

It's been alleged that the problem lays with his partner, not Tim himself

His wife/partner & 3 kids, clearly she's around for a while ... IF the Cats didnt buy the problem, they didnt appear (to me) to push the Freo option too hard.
Having moved from State to State with a family unit in tow, happy wife, happy life.
Go back to Harry Taylor his wife was happy to stay, Harry will play out his days a Cat.

 

[Landgraft]

For you its a mid teen pick, to the Eagles its their first pick.
First pick is a valuable in list management terms.

It has value, but it's not that valuable that it shouldn't be used here. This is because the chance of drafting a better player than Tim with that pick would be very slim.

Ie. just pay the heavily discounted price and move on. Don't think that scraps and spare parts will suffice when they won't.

 

[Kwality]

It has value, but it's not that valuable that it shouldn't be used here. This is because the chance of drafting a better player than Tim with that pick would be very slim.

Ie. just pay the heavily discounted price and move on. Don't think that scraps and spare parts will suffice when they won't.

& the Eagles dont agree with your view, clearly you've reviewed the Eagles list going forward, where it places them in 2021/2/3 - you havent, have you, its about today for you, not so the Eagles.
This time last year the critics were writing the Eagles off because we'd lost so many games experience & they had no idea - sure 3 young blokes debuting & playing in a premiership is an example of sound list management.

 

[Landgraft]

& the Eagles dont agree with your view, clearly you've reviewed the Eagles list going forward, where it places them in 2021/2/3 - you havent, have you, its about today for you, not so the Eagles.
This time last year the critics were writing the Eagles off because we'd lost so many games experience & they had no idea - sure 3 young blokes debuting & playing in a premiership is an example of sound list management.

Why do you think a 24 year old mid that projects as elite would 'only be about today'?

You were willing to trade your first two picks in last year's draft and second in this for him, as well as a 700k/yr offer. Stop pretending your club is playing 4d chess and that's why they don't have him. They thought we would blink and sell for unders, but we didn't. That's the only reason why.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The reason IMO is why we wanted a pick so high in the top 10 is that the club thinks they are a still chance of winning this year's flag, and they think he is a big part of helping them do this, I'm not say we are going to win the flag but I feel the club think they can.. I still think his worth a 1st round pick eg if it's a pick 15 ish and maybe swap our 3rd round pick with your 2 Nd round pick...

I think the continuity one is a big piece. The view I've heard over and over again is that winning games is the fastest way to develop players, and kids don't take much from losses other than a sense of failure.

Kelly will still be pumping out games similar to his current output a few years into dangers full time media career which is important if your player development hinges on winning games. The only way to replace Kelly would be with someone of a comparable output at the point Dangerfield retired and for that you need a ready to go kid like Zak Butters who would I think have been the draft target had we got that top 10 pick for Kelly.

 

[Turbocat]

I think the continuity one is a big piece. The view I've heard over and over again is that winning games is the fastest way to develop players, and kids don't take much from losses other than a sense of failure.

Kelly will still be pumping out games similar to his current output a few years into dangers full time media career which is important if your player development hinges on winning games. The only way to replace Kelly would be with someone of a comparable output at the point Dangerfield retired and for that you need a ready to go kid like Zak Butters who would I think have been the draft target had we got that top 10 pick for Kelly.

Things change quickly.. have a look at the aus cricket team. On Kelly .. we really dont even know how he would go without the Danger and Selwood etc to absorb the primary heat. So we have to develop a group of players that gradually take the load ..Parfitt and Constable look possibles but there must be others.

Whats the best way to develop kids... I think there is a fair range of what works. Roos for example has said it over and over that there is nothing wrong with playing in the vfl. One may say they do that till they are properly ready to compete. Otehrs will say the level is so different taht its better to put them into afl. Once there do you put a player in a position to get burnt or do you nurse them.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Reports suggest he's now interested in playing for Fremantle.

 

[JackFlash]

Reports suggest he's now interested in playing for Fremantle.

 

[Turbocat]

Reports suggest he's now interested in playing for Fremantle.

as long as they are competitive or perhaps look promising future etc.
Probably best outcome for us if they finish 10th or so and have a strong group of kids.

 

[Kwality]

Why do you think a 24 year old mid that projects as elite would 'only be about today'?

You were willing to trade your first two picks in last year's draft and second in this for him, as well as a 700k/yr offer. Stop pretending your club is playing 4d chess and that's why they don't have him. They thought we would blink and sell for unders, but we didn't. That's the only reason why.

You want a winners & losers scenario, a deal wasnt done ... both sides could not get it done, Dangers original comments stand, kellys family is the loser.

So what the Eagles offered was an attempt to grab him for unders, so in your eyes they failed & that makes you feel better, go for it, enjoy. The Eagles have a balanced list without Tim & they made a value decision not to do a deal on the terms offered, its the business that is footy.

I hope Tim has an even better 2019.

 

[Kwality]

Reports suggest he's now interested in playing for Fremantle.

thats good news for footy .... got a link?

 

[Landgraft]

You want a winners & losers scenario, a deal wasnt done ... both sides could not get it done, Dangers original comments stand, kellys family is the loser.

So what the Eagles offered was an attempt to grab him for unders, so in your eyes they failed & that makes you feel better, go for it, enjoy. The Eagles have a balanced list without Tim & they made a value decision not to do a deal on the terms offered, its the business that is footy.

I hope Tim has an even better 2019.

A team pursued a player but was unable to get the deal done... that's definitely a loss. I'm not spinning or creating that narrative, it's just the singular fact of trading that if you can't get your desired deal done you have failed.

This could also reflect on Geelong, who were looking to trade TK out for a certain price - failed to achieve that goal. In part a recognition of how difficult/unlikely it will be to retain him in the long term.

It will be interesting to see how satisfied with their list the Eagles look in next year's trade period if either Kelly or even Coniglio are available. I think you'll find that your list management is much more willing to add really good players than you think they are.

 

[Cattergirl]

Going by Caitlin’s instagram, Tim & his family are having a fabulous time in Geelong at the moment.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[foxdog50]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...8/news-story/092e8461de478cfdeca0694ba1820939

AFL trade news 2019: Fremantle a contender for Tim Kelly despite homesick Cat’s sole Eagles interest in 2018
AFL

• March 17, 2019 4:39pm
• by STAFF WRITERS
• Source: FOX SPORTS

Tim Kelly will feature for Geelong in 2019 following his failed bid to move home to WA. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
Geelong midfielder Tim Kelly is now willing to join Fremantle rather than just West Coast if a trade can be worked out in 2019, according to a report.
A deal between the Cats and Eagles was one of the major moves not completed in the 2018 trade period, with the homesick father of three keen to head back to Western Australia but terms unable to be met.
But last year, Kelly had only West Coast in mind for a trade. That appears to have changed this time.
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AFL Media reports Kelly and his management will closely follow how Fremantle performs in 2019, with the Dockers hoping a busy trade period featuring the additions of Jesse Hogan and Rory Lobb, but subtraction of Lachie Neale, will lead to more success.

The Dockers are believed to be better-placed to pay full price for Kelly, which is believed to be around $650,000 a season.
West Coast’s best offer for Kelly last year, which the Cats refused, was reportedly worth approximately Pick 2 when analysed using the AFL Draft Value Index.
Eagles list manager Brady Rawlings said after the trade deadline in 2018 that his club would “no doubt” try again for Kelly in 2019.
Kelly had a brilliant first season at AFL level, finishing runner-up in the Cats’ best and fairest.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

thats good news for footy .... got a link?

Apparently Peter Bell coming in has changed things a bit. Apparently if Freo show improvement they're on the table
https://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-03-16/dont-discount-dockers-in-chase-for-cat-kelly

 

[CatToTheFuture]

thats good news for footy .... got a link?

Also bare in mind that for Freo to improve they only need to do better 13th. With a fit Fyfe and an actual forward line it's a low bar