Analysis Danger on Tim Kelly + his 2020 contract

[Turbocat]

It's called opinion Turbo... Let's just agree to disagree... Ok...

Thats fine.. its why we are here.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I dont mind Veneables .. but although taken early is a differnt player than Kelly.and has potential but needs a bit of a polish. In a way I could see him bing a good add IF we want to transition guys like Selwood out of the mid area. Would he want to come?


Who knows what deal would get floated.. With your depth id consider taking two players and adding to Kelly... as long as the players were quality and fit our needs. Players may be easier than picks and kids that have played already would be closer to delivering than some pick in the draft especially if WC finish high again. Who...no idea..its just an in principle thing. Dugan and Williams for example. Its been shown many times..as it did for Judd that if you do it right... both sides can have a win.. and the club losing "the" could have a big win with time.

The best outcome would be that Kelly stays here but if thats not to be one has to be willing to explore alternatives.

I know where you're going with trying to find a balanced trade there but if they were happy with bringing in more depth players they'd have taken what was on the table last year.

 

[Down at K Park]

Don't discount Dockers in chase for Cat Kelly - http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-03-16/dont-discount-dockers-in-chase-for-cat-kelly

A fair trade might be on the cards if above is true

Whats with the west coast offered what is equivalent to a pick 2 rubbish. It was a very late first rounder and a 3rd rounder wasn’t it?

 

[goyoucatters]

Whats with the west coast offered what is equivalent to a pick 2 rubbish. It was a very late first rounder and a 3rd rounder wasn’t it?

I'm guessing it's the concept of the accumulated points of the picks adding up to the total required for a P2.

If so, this is the very definition of spurious, and another reminder of why the GFC understandably didn't acquiesce to the Weagles offer for Kelly.

 

[Cattergirl]

Whats with the west coast offered what is equivalent to a pick 2 rubbish. It was a very late first rounder and a 3rd rounder wasn’t it?

Pretty sure it was three second rounders (two last year's draft & one this year's)


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[Landgraft]

Whats with the west coast offered what is equivalent to a pick 2 rubbish. It was a very late first rounder and a 3rd rounder wasn’t it?

They're adding up the draft points, which is a very weird way to value picks.

WC weren't offering any picks inside the first round, but did have three second rounders on the table.

 

[Turbocat]

I know where you're going with trying to find a balanced trade there but if they were happy with bringing in more depth players they'd have taken what was on the table last year.

Im looking at reasonable options... what is your reasonable option.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Whats with the west coast offered what is equivalent to a pick 2 rubbish. It was a very late first rounder and a 3rd rounder wasn’t it?

They are talking on the points DVI if WCE offered say picks 22 24 and 30 its the points equivalent of a top 5 pick. But its irrelevant because no club would trade pick 5 for those 3 picks its why top 5 picks rarely get traded as you get more quality at the top end. Draft points are not the be all and end all.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Im looking at reasonable options... what is your reasonable option.

Realistically if WCE finish inside the top 8 its 2 x R1 (2019 and 2020) with a R2 coming back from us. Not sure if they will offer that much though as I dont think they think Kelly is really important to them. Freo i think will offer close to that though which is where Kelly will have a decision to make.

 

[Kwality]

Realistically if WCE finish inside the top 8 its 2 x R1 (2019 and 2020) with a R2 coming back from us. Not sure if they will offer that much though as I dont think they think Kelly is really important to them. Freo i think will offer close to that though which is where Kelly will have a decision to make.

The Eagles have a fairly balanced list for the now & going forward, so are unlikely to put the future at risk for Tim. Do you really think your suggestion would be attractive/strategic for them?
We stand to lose Kennedy & Hurn in the immediate future & thats the priority as I see it, Kelly is cream in a space where Cripps, Ryan, Rioli, & Venables exist.
Is Kelly that much better.
Understand it might be what the Cats think he's worth, its why no deal was done.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The Eagles have a fairly balanced list for the now & going forward, so are unlikely to put the future at risk for Tim. Do you really think your suggestion would be attractive/strategic for them?
We stand to lose Kennedy & Hurn in the immediate future & thats the priority as I see it, Kelly is cream in a space where Cripps, Ryan, Rioli, & Venables exist.
Is Kelly that much better.
Understand it might be what the Cats think he's worth, its why no deal was done.

No i agree and if i was the Eagles I wouldnt trade him for him at that price.
I was just honestly saying what I think he's worth.
Tbh i think Fremantle need him more than you do and are likely to go harder at him so if his partner really doesn't like Freo they have a big call to make.
This was no issue last year as they could try again in 12months this year they cant he needs to sign a big long term deal this year regardless of what club its at.

 

[Down at K Park]

The Eagles have a fairly balanced list for the now & going forward, so are unlikely to put the future at risk for Tim. Do you really think your suggestion would be attractive/strategic for them?
We stand to lose Kennedy & Hurn in the immediate future & thats the priority as I see it, Kelly is cream in a space where Cripps, Ryan, Rioli, & Venables exist.
Is Kelly that much better.
Understand it might be what the Cats think he's worth, its why no deal was done.

Yet you guys were in his ear all year and offered him a pretty big contract. Yet come trade week didn’t want to stump up for his trade value. Great club you have over there. Just leading him on while not really wanting him.

 

[Turbocat]

Realistically if WCE finish inside the top 8 its 2 x R1 (2019 and 2020) with a R2 coming back from us. Not sure if they will offer that much though as I dont think they think Kelly is really important to them. Freo i think will offer close to that though which is where Kelly will have a decision to make.

The Eagles have a fairly balanced list for the now & going forward, so are unlikely to put the future at risk for Tim. Do you really think your suggestion would be attractive/strategic for them?
We stand to lose Kennedy & Hurn in the immediate future & thats the priority as I see it, Kelly is cream in a space where Cripps, Ryan, Rioli, & Venables exist.
Is Kelly that much better.
Understand it might be what the Cats think he's worth, its why no deal was done.

No i agree and if i was the Eagles I wouldnt trade him for him at that price.
I was just honestly saying what I think he's worth.
Tbh i think Fremantle need him more than you do and are likely to go harder at him so if his partner really doesn't like Freo they have a big call to make.
This was no issue last year as they could try again in 12months this year they cant he needs to sign a big long term deal this year regardless of what club its at.

I honestly get a mixed message feel from Kelly and WC... and the whole thing changes if Fremantle comes into it.

WC appear are a very professional club .. and would not just approach recuiting like a kid in a lollie shop ..ohh I'l have one of them one of them two of them.. etc. , we don't really need Kelly but he would be a really nice add type mindset.. as long as we dont pay much etc. Yet in a way they have on multiple times shown they prefer others.

They picked others when they knew of our interest in the draft.. then WC offered close to enough to get a deal done but pulled up short of getting it done. They in fact would not part with two R2 picks and a future R1 ..translated basically p22 and p25 (OHallaran and Rowbottom I think) and something like p14-p18 this year... but they would give p32-36 this year. We are not talking a lot of points IF they really wanted him.I think its hard to say just how much different we wanted to what they offered and we as the club with the contracted player did not feel we had to move. If they really wanted him they could have moved.. but if we really need 3 good kids their deal was not bad but I suspect we wanted 1 really good kid more than anything , someone like MKing.

I tend to think SW thinks most of the time he can find a kid in the 40's that will not be much different to late teens. Clarke might yet disprove this.. but in recent years Lang and Thurlow etc would say he is right.

So we move on ... and if a deal is to be done in 19
Considering he was contracted last year and will not be at years end.. will we get something like Pures deal.
"2 x R1 (2019 and 2020) with a R2 coming back from us".. guesstimate ... P14-18 , P14-18 <> P28 and Kelly. Id have their offer last year at something like 2103 points (depending on finish in 19) and Pure's deal... 1457 points ( based on a P16 , P16 and p28 going back)

Bottomline
Id say Pures deal seem fair ..but its hard to say just how much WC are willing to do to get it done. 2R1 picks sounds a lot more than 2xp16's and p28 going back... and Geelong has shown they like to add guys ready to play rather than have a couple kids on the never never..

 

[Turbocat]

Yet you guys were in his ear all year and offered him a pretty big contract. Yet come trade week didn’t want to stump up for his trade value. Great club you have over there. Just leading him on while not really wanting him.

Of course we really don't know who was in who's ear.. but you must be partially correct at a min. All it would have taken was .. Tim ..I doubt we can get it done and we atpit.. we really have your role covered...
Instead I suspect ..it was we'd love to have you , here's what we could offer you , we will put our best efforts into getting it done for you ... ohh sorry Geelong wanted too much.

 

[Turbocat]

Whats with the west coast offered what is equivalent to a pick 2 rubbish. It was a very late first rounder and a 3rd rounder wasn’t it?

I think the deal offered was their 2 R2 picks 20 and 22 which became p22 and p25 and this years R2 ..something like P32-P36 depending on where they finish.
So 845 + 756 + 584 = 2185 points .. somewhere around P3-P4 on points . better if West Coast have a bad year.

 

[Turbocat]

Don't discount Dockers in chase for Cat Kelly - http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-03-16/dont-discount-dockers-in-chase-for-cat-kelly

A fair trade might be on the cards if above is true

I guess it depends on what Freo would call a fair trade as well. Based on last year... 5, 23 , 77.. The way that article reads Kelly would only be interested if Freo was a lot more competitive.. so maybe something like 12, 30 and 84. Would Freo trade their R1 for Kelly? Would they trade a player we would like ..its all up for debate I guess. 2 R1 picks and a r2 pick going back from Freo would be a good result ... but would they do that? They would have no R1 complications as they have had plenty of picks recently.

 

[you pick one]

Don't discount Dockers in chase for Cat Kelly - http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-03-16/dont-discount-dockers-in-chase-for-cat-kelly

A fair trade might be on the cards if above is true

Just the manager trying to undo the damage already done,expect Caitlin to be seen and not heard as much this year and with a softened message on the WC only theme.

 

[foxdog50]

The Eagles have a fairly balanced list for the now & going forward, so are unlikely to put the future at risk for Tim. Do you really think your suggestion would be attractive/strategic for them?
We stand to lose Kennedy & Hurn in the immediate future & thats the priority as I see it, Kelly is cream in a space where Cripps, Ryan, Rioli, & Venables exist.
Is Kelly that much better.
Understand it might be what the Cats think he's worth, its why no deal was done.

In your opinion as a eagles fan, what do you think his worth in picks?

 

[Kwality]

Yet you guys were in his ear all year and offered him a pretty big contract. Yet come trade week didn’t want to stump up for his trade value. Great club you have over there. Just leading him on while not really wanting him.

So you reckon the decision is about footy not home life, is it or maybe it is what you want to believe somehow taking it as a reflection on your footy club, its not a reflection for even one moment.

In your opinion as a eagles fan, what do you think his worth in picks?

Not the Eagles 1st & thats why no deal has been done. Plenty of clubs that he may be worth their first .... not rocket science, no one dudding anyone.

 

[cats_09]

They are talking on the points DVI if WCE offered say picks 22 24 and 30 its the points equivalent of a top 5 pick. But its irrelevant because no club would trade pick 5 for those 3 picks its why top 5 picks rarely get traded as you get more quality at the top end. Draft points are not the be all and end all.

Unless you're Carlton & decide to trade what looks to be a top 3 pick for pick 19 & Adelaide's 2019 first which could also be in the teens

Not sure that was a great trade

 

[Cataholic]

Kinda over the whole saga really.

He had a good 2018, but this year he'll have to step up again. Will he.....or will he suffer the second year blues.....is the only mild point of interest for me.

Either way, he's gone imo, and it's only a matter of whether we get a sharp steak knife for him, or a blunt one, come end of season.

 

[Turbocat]

So you reckon the decision is about footy not home life, is it or maybe it is what you want to believe somehow taking it as a reflection on your footy club, its not a reflection for even one moment.



Not the Eagles 1st & thats why no deal has been done. Plenty of clubs that he may be worth their first .... not rocket science, no one dudding anyone.

If it was just about Home he would be playing for Freo now... its more like ... I want home at a specific club that is a certain standard..

I think you better hope that a player or two appeal cause if you are not prepared to trade your R1 it can get ugly... and if Freo are interested and he can be convinced they are an option then he wil will not be going for less.

 

[Turbocat]

Kinda over the whole saga really.

He had a good 2018, but this year he'll have to step up again. Will he.....or will he suffer the second year blues.....is the only mild point of interest for me.

Either way, he's gone imo, and it's only a matter of whether we get a sharp steak knife for him, or a blunt one, come end of season.

Its one reason id have not been unhappy to have done the deal. Now we have to have another 6 months of this.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Im looking at reasonable options... what is your reasonable option.

I don't have any, which is apparently where we left off last year. Not much has changed

 

[Turbocat]

I don't have any, which is apparently where we left off last year. Not much has changed

Id think we can try to be reasonable ..reason it out so to speak but unless TK decides to stay then most will not be happy with the outcome.