Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[Hodgy]

Four remaining definite wins: Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide

That gets us to 11 wins. Then we need to win two of the following

Sydney away (Nicks has never beaten them from 6 attempts, poor form)
Brisbane (1 win from 7 attempts)
Hawthorn away in Tasmania
Melbourne (1 win from 6 attempts, building form)
Western Bulldogs (2 wins from 5 attempts)
Gold Coast (1 win from 6 attempts against Hardwick)
Hawthorn at home (1 win against Mitchell from 4 attempts)
Collingwood (Nicks has never beaten them from 8 attempts)

Even if we win 2 we'd probably need to maintain a healthy percentage to make finals

It’s fascinating how negativily some people can view the world. You have literally used our win loss record as a team in full rebuild to predict our chances this year. A team currently sitting in the top 4 half way through the year, you are using our record head to head against sides from when we were a 4 win side 3 years ago.

It’s like saying this WC side from today can’t beat us in 4 years because they were crap today.

You might hate this fact but we have an easier second half draw and GC will probably hit a wall. Top 2 is fair enough aim. Home final and hopefully home Prelim is definately what our goals should be.

 

[Freomaniac]

Four remaining definite wins: Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide

That gets us to 11 wins. Then we need to win two of the following

Sydney away (Nicks has never beaten them from 6 attempts, poor form)
Brisbane (1 win from 7 attempts)
Hawthorn away in Tasmania
Melbourne (1 win from 6 attempts, building form)
Western Bulldogs (2 wins from 5 attempts)
Gold Coast (1 win from 6 attempts against Hardwick)
Hawthorn at home (1 win against Mitchell from 4 attempts)
Collingwood (Nicks has never beaten them from 8 attempts)

Even if we win 2 we'd probably need to maintain a healthy percentage to make finals

3 of those 4 definite wins after the crows round 15 bye are away games

 

[NSolis]

I do wonder a bit what the proposed mechanism is for it being relevant that Adelaide hasn't won a game against Sydney since 2020.

During Nicks' coaching career Sydney has made finals every year except one, while Adelaide has never made finals and has finished bottom 4 most years. Adelaide has never been higher on the ladder than Sydney going into any of their games (excluding round 1, 2020 where they were equal). Oh, and one of those games Adelaide would likely have won if it wasn't for a particular goal umpiring decision.

Sydney has consistently beaten Adelaide because they've been a better team. And if you put that all down to coaching (I don't), it's also not the same coach. So what's the significance of the past record? Is it the colours of the uniform or something?

The one actual factor which is significant next week is that it's an away game, which is something Adelaide has struggled with pretty much always. But that's obviously not being judged as significant given that away games against West Coast and North Melbourne are being put down as definite wins.

Adelaide should go in marginal favourites next week based on performances so far this year. If it was a home game that would be significant favourites.

 

[moogerfooger]

It’s fascinating how negativily some people can view the world. You have literally used our win loss record as a team in full rebuild to predict our chances this year. A team currently sitting in the top 4 half way through the year, you are using our record head to head against sides from when we were a 4 win side 3 years ago.

It’s like saying this WC side from today can’t beat us in 4 years because they were crap today.

You might hate this fact but we have an easier second half draw and GC will probably hit a wall. Top 2 is fair enough aim. Home final and hopefully home Prelim is definately what our goals should be.

People are carrying on like we're 4-7, not 7-4, and its getting tiresome. I don't even bother with the AFC forum much any more because the group think is so overwhelmingly negative.

We've got a very good side in 2025. I'm going to enjoy the ride instead of demanding perfection.

 

[Cromulant]

Can always rely on old mate Scorp for a healthy dose of pessimism

 

[chazwazza]

Doing the ladder predictor I have Adelaide finishing 5th

 

[Scorpus]

It’s fascinating how negativily some people can view the world. You have literally used our win loss record as a team in full rebuild to predict our chances this year. A team currently sitting in the top 4 half way through the year, you are using our record head to head against sides from when we were a 4 win side 3 years ago.

It’s like saying this WC side from today can’t beat us in 4 years because they were crap today.

You might hate this fact but we have an easier second half draw and GC will probably hit a wall. Top 2 is fair enough aim. Home final and hopefully home Prelim is definately what our goals should be.

Well our season so far has followed our win loss record against other clubs.

It's really that simple

 

[Scorpus]

I do wonder a bit what the proposed mechanism is for it being relevant that Adelaide hasn't won a game against Sydney since 2020.

During Nicks' coaching career Sydney has made finals every year except one, while Adelaide has never made finals and has finished bottom 4 most years. Adelaide has never been higher on the ladder than Sydney going into any of their games (excluding round 1, 2020 where they were equal). Oh, and one of those games Adelaide would likely have won if it wasn't for a particular goal umpiring decision.

Sydney has consistently beaten Adelaide because they've been a better team. And if you put that all down to coaching (I don't), it's also not the same coach. So what's the significance of the past record? Is it the colours of the uniform or something?

The one actual factor which is significant next week is that it's an away game, which is something Adelaide has struggled with pretty much always. But that's obviously not being judged as significant given that away games against West Coast and North Melbourne are being put down as definite wins.

Adelaide should go in marginal favourites next week based on performances so far this year. If it was a home game that would be significant favourites.

If there was proof that our past record wasn't relevant - for example, if we had beaten a team this year that historically we haven't - then sure, what you're saying is correct

But that is yet to happen, so it's not exactly outrageous to not pencil in a win against Sydney this week

 

[kirky]

Interestingly we are now 11 rounds in and we have played sides who are in the eight - 1st, 3rd, 5th and 8th. The losses against 3 of those sides are 10, 1 and 19 points (two of them away).

So at this point we get an idea how we are situated as 4 games against 7 teams in the eight and 7 games against 10 teams outside the eight. The current teams in the eight has been this way since Round 6.

We are the second best offence and the third best defence and have the third best % and only 2% of the best % in the AFL. If you are in the top 6 of both offence and defence you are in the premiership window - 17 of the last 19 premiers have has a top 6 rated defence.

We are tracking well, we still have improvement but are on the right course. All this in spite of our coach.

 

[Dangarman]

Well our season so far has followed our win loss record against other clubs.

It's really that simple

True. If we beat the 8 sides we beat last year every time we play them we get to 11 wins.

To do that, we need to beat the Dogs at Marvel, and win repeat games against North, WC and Port.

We get another shot at GC and CWD at home.

We get two shots at Hawks, who are starting to look flaky (unlike last year when we played them into form)

We get Bris and Mel at home, plus Rich and Syd away.

We now need to win half our remaining games to make it.

I'm thinking the missed Rankine free against GC will probably cost us significant ladder position however it all winds up, as it is looking pretty tight around the middle of the table where we're likely to finish.

 

[Redline]

Four remaining definite wins: Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide

That gets us to 11 wins. Then we need to win two of the following

Sydney away (Nicks has never beaten them from 6 attempts, poor form)
Brisbane (1 win from 7 attempts)
Hawthorn away in Tasmania
Melbourne (1 win from 6 attempts, building form)
Western Bulldogs (2 wins from 5 attempts)
Gold Coast (1 win from 6 attempts against Hardwick)
Hawthorn at home (1 win against Mitchell from 4 attempts)
Collingwood (Nicks has never beaten them from 8 attempts)

Even if we win 2 we'd probably need to maintain a healthy percentage to make finals

I wouldn't have the Kangaroo's as a definite win as I think they can improve. We should beat Port but only a couple of weeks ago we probably should of lost to them. If they have a change of coach it might be harder.

We should get at least two or more of those other games though so I think we should make it. Sydney this week should be one of them.

 

[Cromulant]

I wouldn't have the Kangaroo's as a definite win as I think they can improve. We should beat Port but only a couple of weeks ago we probably should of lost to them. If they have a change of coach it might be harder.

We should get at least two or more of those other games though so I think we should make it. Sydney this week should be one of them.

Depends what the Kangas want, might be in play for a better pick if they were to lose.

 

[Trigger13]

Rant time…

The facts are we haven’t beaten a good side away from home. That’s how it’s always been under nicks. Hell, Sydney aren’t even a very good team right now. And we’ll likely lose this week. Until that changes, the negative posters have been more than vindicated.

It’s ok to demand something more. Otherwise we’ll continue to be a club that accepts mediocrity.

when was the last time we were truly ruthless with list management? 1996. And we all know what happened next.

May as well give Wayne a six year deal. And sign on Nicks for another two if we scrape into finals.

Yeah, yeah, we’re 7-4 and in the top 4. We’re also completely fraudulent. Our record away says it is FACT. Our midfield isn’t up to it. We’re wasting the best forward line in the club’s history in the process.

 

[Cromulant]

Rant time…

The facts are we haven’t beaten a good side away from home. That’s how it’s always been under nicks. Hell, Sydney aren’t even a very good team right now. And we’ll likely lose this week. Until that changes, the negative posters have been more than vindicated.

It’s ok to demand something more. Otherwise we’ll continue to be a club that accepts mediocrity.

when was the last time we were truly ruthless with list management? 1996. And we all know what happened next.

May as well give Wayne a six year deal. And sign on Nicks for another two if we scrape into finals.

Yeah, yeah, we’re 7-4 and in the top 4. We’re also completely fraudulent. Our record away says it is FACT. Our midfield isn’t up to it. We’re wasting the best forward line in the club’s history in the process.

I dont think its fraudulent as such, its one of those seasons where everyone inside the 8 has fallen over during the early part of the season.

I would say we PROBABLY dont deserve to be top 4, but outside of Collingwood who does ??

This week isnt a big one in terms of beating a quality side, because they aren't..... its about beating who we should beat.

 

[Peter Doherty]

We should be going 3-0 in the next 3 weeks. Sydney won't be playing finals and are banged up. Brisbane will be the toughest but it's at home. Hawthorn are a bit overrated.

 

[Cromulant]

We should be going 3-0 in the next 3 weeks. Sydney won't be playing finals and are banged up. Brisbane will be the toughest but it's at home. Hawthorn are a bit overrated.

If the Hawks game was at home id agree, but its not.

Brisbane are gettable, they are doing what they need to at the moment, but no more. Mind you they were impressive Saturday.

 

[Scorpus]

I dont think its fraudulent as such, its one of those seasons where everyone inside the 8 has fallen over during the early part of the season.

I would say we PROBABLY dont deserve to be top 4, but outside of Collingwood who does ??

This week isnt a big one in terms of beating a quality side, because they aren't..... its about beating who we should beat.

I think there's a pretty clear legitimacy ladder right now

Games Played Against Top 8
Brisbane: Geelong (W), Bulldogs (W), Collingwood (L), Gold Coast (W), Hawthorn (W)
Geelong: Brisbane (L), Adelaide (W), Hawthorn (W), Collingwood (W), GWS (L), Bulldogs (W)
Gold Coast: Adelaide (W), Brisbane (L), Bulldogs (W), Hawthorn (W)
Collingwood: GWS (L), Bulldogs (W), Brisbane (W), Geelong (L), Adelaide (W)

GWS: Collingwood (W), Hawthorn (L), Adelaide (L), Bulldogs (L), Geelong (W)
Adelaide: Gold Coast (L), Geelong (L), GWS (W), Collingwood (L)
Hawthorn: GWS (W), Geelong (L), Gold Coast (L), Brisbane (L)
Bulldogs: Collingwood (L), Brisbane (L), GWS (W), Gold Coast (L), Geelong (L)

The top four listed there seem to be getting it done against the good teams whereas the bottom group are not

Then you've got the teams outside the eight:

Fremantle: Geelong (L), Bulldogs (W), Adelaide (W), Collingwood (L), GWS (W)

Freo are actually outperforming a good chunk of the top eight in games versus top sides. If they are good, the legitimacy of Geelong and Collingwood increase, and the legitimacy of Adelaide, GWS and Bulldogs decrease

Melbourne: GWS (L), Gold Coast (L), Geelong (L), Hawthorn (L), Brisbane (W)
Carlton: Hawthorn (L), Bulldogs (L), Collingwood (L), Geelong (W), Adelaide (L)
Sydney: Hawthorn (L), Brisbane (L), Collingwood (L), Gold Coast (L), GWS (W)
Port Adelaide: Collingwood (L), Hawthorn (W), Bulldogs (L), Adelaide (L), Geelong (L)
St Kilda: Adelaide (L), Geelong (W), GWS (L), Bulldogs (L), Brisbane (L), Gold Coast (L)

All of the above five sides are battlers but some have records not overly different to those in the top eight

Essendon: Hawthorn (L), Adelaide (L), Collingwood (L), Bulldogs (L) - frauds of the highest order inflated in ladder position by their draw

 

[Cromulant]

I think there's a pretty clear legitimacy ladder right now

Games Played Against Top 8
Brisbane: Geelong (W), Bulldogs (W), Collingwood (L), Gold Coast (W), Hawthorn (W)
Collingwood: GWS (L), Bulldogs (W), Brisbane (W), Geelong (L), Adelaide (W)
Geelong: Brisbane (L), Adelaide (W), Hawthorn (W), Collingwood (W), GWS (L), Bulldogs (W)
Gold Coast: Adelaide (W), Brisbane (L), Bulldogs (W), Hawthorn (W)

GWS: Collingwood (W), Hawthorn (L), Adelaide (L), Bulldogs (L), Geelong (W)
Adelaide: Gold Coast (L), Geelong (L), GWS (W), Collingwood (L)
Hawthorn: GWS (W), Geelong (L), Gold Coast (L), Brisbane (L)
Bulldogs: Collingwood (L), Brisbane (L), GWS (W), Gold Coast (L), Geelong (L)

The top four listed there seem to be getting it done against the good teams whereas the bottom group are not

Then you've got the teams outside the eight:

Fremantle: Geelong (L), Bulldogs (W), Adelaide (W), Collingwood (L), GWS (W) - actually outperforming a good chunk of the top eight in games versus top sides

Melbourne: GWS (L), Gold Coast (L), Geelong (L), Hawthorn (L), Brisbane (W)
Carlton: Hawthorn (L), Bulldogs (L), Collingwood (L), Geelong (W), Adelaide (L)
Sydney: Hawthorn (L), Brisbane (L), Collingwood (L), Gold Coast (L), GWS (W)
Port Adelaide: Collingwood (L), Hawthorn (W), Bulldogs (L), Adelaide (L), Geelong (L)
St Kilda: Adelaide (L), Geelong (W), GWS (L), Bulldogs (L), Brisbane (L), Gold Coast (L)

All of the above five sides are battlers but some have records not overly different to those in the top eight

Essendon: Hawthorn (L), Adelaide (L), Collingwood (L), Bulldogs (L) - frauds of the highest order inflated in ladder position by their draw

And yet thats not the ladder itself.

I get you're trying to fit a narrative and thats fine, but can you take anyone who gets beaten by the Tigers at Marvel as legitimate ??

 

[Scorpus]

And yet thats not the ladder itself.

I get you're trying to fit a narrative and thats fine, but can you take anyone who gets beaten by the Tigers at Marvel as legitimate ??

It's pretty close to the current ladder, but it adjusts for difficulty of the fixture so far.

I guess it depends how importantly you rate a poor loss like that. Gold Coast have only lost two games the entire season. That Richmond match appears to be an outlier when you consider how they are performing against the good teams.

Does beating good sides but putting in a stinker make you less legitimate than beating the poor sides but not beating the good sides?

 

[Cromulant]

It's pretty close to the current ladder, but it adjusts for difficulty of the fixture so far.

I guess it depends how importantly you rate a poor loss like that. Gold Coast have only lost two games the entire season. That Richmond match appears to be an outlier when you consider how they are performing against the good teams.

Does beating good sides but putting in a stinker make you less legitimate than beating the poor sides but not beating the good sides?

I mean weve only had 1 poor loss for the season too, Freo at Freo. Aside from that a 10 point loss to the ladder leaders, a 1 point robbery against the aforementioned Suns and a 1 goal loss to Geelong where we totally ran out of legs

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I think there's a pretty clear legitimacy ladder right now

Games Played Against Top 8
Brisbane: Geelong (W), Bulldogs (W), Collingwood (L), Gold Coast (W), Hawthorn (W)
Geelong: Brisbane (L), Adelaide (W), Hawthorn (W), Collingwood (W), GWS (L), Bulldogs (W)
Gold Coast: Adelaide (W), Brisbane (L), Bulldogs (W), Hawthorn (W)
Collingwood: GWS (L), Bulldogs (W), Brisbane (W), Geelong (L), Adelaide (W)

GWS: Collingwood (W), Hawthorn (L), Adelaide (L), Bulldogs (L), Geelong (W)
Adelaide: Gold Coast (L), Geelong (L), GWS (W), Collingwood (L)
Hawthorn: GWS (W), Geelong (L), Gold Coast (L), Brisbane (L)
Bulldogs: Collingwood (L), Brisbane (L), GWS (W), Gold Coast (L), Geelong (L)

The top four listed there seem to be getting it done against the good teams whereas the bottom group are not

Then you've got the teams outside the eight:

Fremantle: Geelong (L), Bulldogs (W), Adelaide (W), Collingwood (L), GWS (W)

Freo are actually outperforming a good chunk of the top eight in games versus top sides. If they are good, the legitimacy of Geelong and Collingwood increase, and the legitimacy of Adelaide, GWS and Bulldogs decrease

Melbourne: GWS (L), Gold Coast (L), Geelong (L), Hawthorn (L), Brisbane (W)
Carlton: Hawthorn (L), Bulldogs (L), Collingwood (L), Geelong (W), Adelaide (L)
Sydney: Hawthorn (L), Brisbane (L), Collingwood (L), Gold Coast (L), GWS (W)
Port Adelaide: Collingwood (L), Hawthorn (W), Bulldogs (L), Adelaide (L), Geelong (L)
St Kilda: Adelaide (L), Geelong (W), GWS (L), Bulldogs (L), Brisbane (L), Gold Coast (L)

All of the above five sides are battlers but some have records not overly different to those in the top eight

Essendon: Hawthorn (L), Adelaide (L), Collingwood (L), Bulldogs (L) - frauds of the highest order inflated in ladder position by their draw

Funny how the giants wins are against the top group and losses are against the bottom group.

By the the end of the season we’ll have played 10 games against the current top 8, I expect us to finish with a 4-6 record

 

[Scorpus]

I mean weve only had 1 poor loss for the season too, Freo at Freo. Aside from that a 10 point loss to the ladder leaders, a 1 point robbery against the aforementioned Suns and a 1 goal loss to Geelong where we totally ran out of legs

There are a lot of sides you could say similar about

Geelong are below us on the real ladder but have only lost to GWS (by 4), Carlton (by 18), Brisbane (by 9) and St Kilda (by 7)

Bulldogs lost to Collingwood (by 6), Geelong (by 14) and Gold Coast (by 10)

Hawthorn lost by under 2 goals to Geelong and Gold Coast

Those results aren't overly different to those "what if we won our close losses" type games from us

 

[kirky]

Rant time…

The facts are we haven’t beaten a good side away from home. That’s how it’s always been under nicks. Hell, Sydney aren’t even a very good team right now. And we’ll likely lose this week. Until that changes, the negative posters have been more than vindicated.

It’s ok to demand something more. Otherwise we’ll continue to be a club that accepts mediocrity.

when was the last time we were truly ruthless with list management? 1996. And we all know what happened next.

May as well give Wayne a six year deal. And sign on Nicks for another two if we scrape into finals.

Yeah, yeah, we’re 7-4 and in the top 4. We’re also completely fraudulent. Our record away says it is FACT. Our midfield isn’t up to it. We’re wasting the best forward line in the club’s history in the process.

If you get around 50% away record as a non-Vic side you are doing well. Sydney, Brisbane, Port and GWS last year had 8-4, 6-4-1, 7-4 and 6-6 WL records away from home. And remember most Vic sides play a maximum 6 games away from Melbourne.

 

[Cromulant]

There are a lot of sides you could say similar about

Geelong are below us on the real ladder but have only lost to GWS (by 4), Carlton (by 18), Brisbane (by 9) and St Kilda (by 7)

Bulldogs lost to Collingwood (by 6), Geelong (by 14) and Gold Coast (by 10)

Hawthorn lost by under 2 goals to Geelong and Gold Coast

Those results aren't overly different to those "what if we won our close losses" type games from us

I totally agree, my whole point is people are trying to write off where we are at because "well we beat these sides last year".

The competition is even, and I dont think there should be any doubt that we are a better side this year than last. We might be a spot higher than we deserve to be, maybe.

Edit - Losing to both Carlton AND St Kilda is pretty poor. The latter in particular given how badly they were being beaten.

 

[kirky]

I totally agree, my whole point is people are trying to write off where we are at because "well we beat these sides last year".

The competition is even, and I dont think there should be any doubt that we are a better side this year than last. We might be a spot higher than we deserve to be, maybe.

Whoever gets rolling will win the flag. It is going to be one of those years.

If we put last year aside, given we were on the cusp of finals in 2023 and logically should have continued that improvement last year then we should be aiming for top 4.

As someone on radio said, we had a forward line with the likes of McHenry and Murphy who have been replaced with Rankine and Neal-Bullen. Chalk and cheese.