Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[Dangarman]

If the Doggies replace GWS in the current top 8, it is possible we get to 13 wins without beating any top 8 side!

If we beat up on the bottom 10 (GWS, Ess, StK, Mel, Carl, Syd, Rich once each; and Port, WC and Norf twice), we get 13 wins.

Of the other 7 sides in this hypothetical top 8, everyone except the Dogs have lost to at least one bottom 10 side.
Dogs have another 7 games against the bottom 10, so it's possible they could also get 13 wins without beating a top 8 team. However, only one of Crows or Dogs could do this because they play each other, so one of them would get the win against a top 8 side.

 

[PCORF]

We passed the Swans test.

Now the next test is the prime time home game test. Taking on the Lions this Friday. We often give it our best vs the top sides but usually fall short. Our prime time home record is pretty average since moving to AO.

 

[AFC979810]

We passed the Swans test.

Now the next test is the prime time home game test. Taking on the Lions this Friday. We often give it our best vs the top sides but usually fall short. Our prime time home record is pretty average since moving to AO.

This board is obsessed with tests.

The only tests that matter occur in September.

Regular season only matters to get you to the finals.

We are halfway through the year and sitting top 4. Stay healthy, play like we have the first half of the year and we are a very good chance at top 4.

Then anything can happen.

 

[NSolis]

Yep. The goal of the regular season is to get the highest ladder position possible to make a finals run possible. Once you get there it doesn't matter if you beat Collingwood and lost to West Coast or the other way around, except if you're trying to guess how you might go in September.

In 2005 we finished on top of the ladder, 17-5. The record against other top 4 teams was great, 4-1! We had double up games against two of them and the only loss was at home to West Coast, which was in round 1. We even won the reverse fixture in Perth in the final round, along with big wins against Sydney and St. Kilda on the road. Didn't really matter in September as the only team we beat was 8th placed Port.

 

[pjcrows]

Top 4 with minimal injuries is the priority. Then during September it's coaching, belief and a bit of luck.

 

[Peter Doherty]

If we beat Brisbane and Bulldogs beat the Hawks.

Means would we could go 4 games ahead of Hawthorn with a win in Tassie (assuming we maintain a healthy %).

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Nothing is ever definitive of course, but the grand final teams are collectively 47-27 vs top 8 teams over the last four seasons

 

[George CantStandYa]

 

[George CantStandYa]

Nothing is ever definitive of course, but the grand final teams are collectively 47-27 vs top 8 teams over the last four seasons

Yep and that’s why I’m not getting excited yet, we need to be beating top 8 teams.

Look at the the rest of the season, we’ve got an easy draw, we’ve had an easy draw, we are injury free, we’ve failed against top 8 teams so far, not many opportunities left.

 

[Golumless]

This board is obsessed with tests.

The only tests that matter occur in September.

Regular season only matters to get you to the finals.

We are halfway through the year and sitting top 4. Stay healthy, play like we have the first half of the year and we are a very good chance at top 4.

Then anything can happen.

Bingo. Regular season means **** all.

Key is to bank wins and get your profile as hot as possible in the back-end of the year to hit the ground running in finals

Though, slaying the Collingwood demon would be a nice feather in the cap, but that's to do with a long losing streak.

 

[Scorpus]

Bingo. Regular season means **** all.

Key is to bank wins and get your profile as hot as possible in the back-end of the year to hit the ground running in finals

Though, slaying the Collingwood demon would be a nice feather in the cap, but that's to do with a long losing streak.

Well to be as hot as possible running into September we'd probably want to beat Collingwood at home in round 23

 

[Eddie Murphy]

This board is obsessed with tests.

The only tests that matter occur in September.

Regular season only matters to get you to the finals.

We are halfway through the year and sitting top 4. Stay healthy, play like we have the first half of the year and we are a very good chance at top 4.

Then anything can happen.

It’s about taking note of who we beat. I think it’s pretty obvious the club sees making finals as a pass for the season. But there exists a reality where we scrape into finals off 13 wins without beating a single finalist. That would tell me we’re a middling side, and I’d want to see more proactive change from the club than we’d probably get.

The weekend was the closest we saw to the suggestion we’re a genuine finals team rather than a middling side that makes up the numbers. But it was still ultimately against a non-finalist (one that lost the previous week to 12th by 53 points). We shouldn’t be complicit with the idea of simply making finals: we need a win or two against fellow finalists that prove we deserve to be there.

 

[Nepotism]

Yes we should.

 

[Bob Neil]

According to Squiggle we're currently a 93% chance of making the 8, 53% chance of top 4, and 20% chance of top 2.

 

[kirky]

And the one our % does, is basically give us an extra game teams below us have to win to jump over us, which is why Bulldogs lurking behind us is not good. We need to beat the Bullies.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

View attachment 2332623

So no excuses for Gold Coast missing 1st finals series.

Without knowing this, my thinking was Hawks would miss with Fremantle & GWS beating them for finals spot.

Reckon other sides are safe. Suggests Cats will rise & Lions drop a little.

 

[Rank]

Yep. The goal of the regular season is to get the highest ladder position possible to make a finals run possible. Once you get there it doesn't matter if you beat Collingwood and lost to West Coast or the other way around, except if you're trying to guess how you might go in September.

In 2005 we finished on top of the ladder, 17-5. The record against other top 4 teams was great, 4-1! We had double up games against two of them and the only loss was at home to West Coast, which was in round 1. We even won the reverse fixture in Perth in the final round, along with big wins against Sydney and St. Kilda on the road. Didn't really matter in September as the only team we beat was 8th placed Port.

The thing that cost us that year was Roo getting suspended for his high hit on Selwood in the final round, lost a close one to the Saints in the 1st final making us have to travel for the Preliminary final. Would have never of lost if Roo played against the Saints. And had it over the Swan's back then.
Then in 2006 the Hentchel injury cost us a flag. We really should have won one back then.

 

[daniel_4tw]

Fremantle miss out for mine. They are hot and cold and have recent history of dropping their bundle.

Was it last year they needed to win one of their last three to make it, lost all, including Port at home in the final round when Port had top 2 sewn up?

 

[Rank]

All of a sudden this Brisbane game is huge, And a proper 8 point game, Win this and we not only get a big grip on a top 4 spot but we go into the Hawks game full of confidence and a chance for top 2.

If we lose to Brisbane we go into the Hawthorn game with addad pressure of having to win away to keep any buffer we have on a top 8 spot against a team playing for their season.

To most of the AFL world last week's win in Sydney just looked like us beating up on a struggler, but to me it was a show of power and a team turning the corner.

We will win our next 2 and go into the bye a top 2 chance and serious flag contender.

 

[Rank]

So no excuses for Gold Coast missing 1st finals series.

Without knowing this, my thinking was Hawks would miss with Fremantle & GWS beating them for finals spot.

Reckon other sides are safe. Suggests Cats will rise & Lions drop a little.

The Cats will rise due to their soft remaining draw, Our loss to them was a win that got away. We were dominating them over 5 goals up before a couple of dodgy umpiring decisions got them back into the game and fatigue got us in the 2nd half, 5 days after the Gold Coast game in hot humid conditions. Confident we'd roll them in most other situations.

I agree Hawthorn are the vulnerable team in the 8.

 

[Mattrox]

Nothing is ever definitive of course, but the grand final teams are collectively 47-27 vs top 8 teams over the last four seasons

In finals, any win recorded is against a top 8 team. We have a chance to improve our record.

 

[Cromulant]

In finals, any win recorded is against a top 8 team. We have a chance to improve our record.

Or make it worse

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

In finals, any win recorded is against a top 8 team. We have a chance to improve our record.

That's their minor round record vs top 8 teams

 

[Mattrox]

That's their minor round record vs top 8 teams

I know. I was commenting on us, ironically. We haven't faced heaps of top 8 teams thus far. But we do have 2 shots at Collingwood left iirc.

 

[Mattrox]

This board is obsessed with tests.

The only tests that matter occur in September.

Regular season only matters to get you to the finals.

We are halfway through the year and sitting top 4. Stay healthy, play like we have the first half of the year and we are a very good chance at top 4.

Then anything can happen.

Disagree.

If you were told at the start of the year that we would be going into this round in 3rd place against a 2nd place Brisbane, you would have asked if you could have some the same pills, please.

Games like this, Hawks in Tas and Collingwood can be season defining. How we perform in these will determine if we finish top 4 or miss out on a double chance and play a sudden death final away.

It's not "anything can happen" its very much "Crows have to make it happen". And these games are a big step towards that.

It also is our Lid-off-O'meter (tm). It sets some realistic expectations around finals.