Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[kirky]

That's only because Victorians have no idea about our side. 2023 we should have played finals. 2024 we were still raw but Nicks went ultra defensive and stifled pur attack which cost us.... did he tank for a pick while playing a long game... is he that smart?...

Anyway. We all follow our side much more closely than the Vic media and understand our talent and their potential. This is why Crows fans have been very critical of 2024.

If we were selling in FB marketplace we would all say "We know what we have got".....


But everything is a massive surprise for them. They don't understand. But close watchers have seen the glimpses over 2023 and later 2024. It's not a complete surprise.

Did this comparison with some of the players in our 2017 Grand Final side - tell me if I’m off with any of this

Jenkins… Thiltorpe WIN
Hartigan… Keane WIN
Douglas… ANB WIN
Betts… Rachele EVEN
Brown… Michalanney WIN
Seedsman… Hinge WIN
Atkins… Peatling WIN
Cameron… Rankine WIN
Otten… Fogarty WIN

there is more… but that’s already and 2025 is a remarkably better side

Makes one think and dream….

If you follow a growth projectory of our draftees and those traded in, should this year be surprising? I still say we finished 15th last year with a % of 99. How many 15th sides do that?

 

[kirky]

Squiggle ladder predictor has us finishing 3rd (behind Geelong and Collingwood) on 17 wins.

Holy crap.

 

[kirky]

Looks like some have started to plan - these prices didn’t exist a week ago.

Return flights on the Sunday after the GF - look at Business Class.


And this is the week before on the Sunday -

 

[Cromulant]

Looks like some have started to plan - these prices didn’t exist a week ago.

Return flights on the Sunday after the GF - look at Business Class.View attachment 2336923


And this is the week before on the Sunday -

View attachment 2336925

Clubs have started putting out GF packages this week, that would have something to do with it for sure.

 

[jenny61_99]

Looks like some have started to plan - these prices didn’t exist a week ago.

Return flights on the Sunday after the GF - look at Business Class.View attachment 2336923


And this is the week before on the Sunday -

View attachment 2336925

In 97, we got the last two flights out of Brisbane on grand final day… costing us $1,000 each back then. Could only get accommodation out at Lilydale! In 98, we booked flights and accommodation in anticipation in April for a fraction of the cost!

 

[1970crow]

I haven’t re-done it for a few weeks, but my ladder predictor now has us 4th by % ahead of Dogs with Suns and Hawks half a game behind.

 

[1970crow]

I want top 4 as a minimum now, 15 wins has to be the goal with our run in.

This is my newly adjusted predictor. On track for the usual rumblings from Cats fans about home finals at the G.

 

[Crows I Am]

Did this comparison with some of the players in our 2017 Grand Final side - tell me if I’m off with any of this

Jenkins… Thiltorpe WIN
Hartigan… Keane WIN
Douglas… ANB WIN
Betts… Rachele EVEN
Brown… Michalanney WIN
Seedsman… Hinge WIN
Atkins… Peatling WIN
Cameron… Rankine WIN
Otten… Fogarty WIN

there is more… but that’s already and 2025 is a remarkably better side

Makes one think and dream….

If you follow a growth projectory of our draftees and those traded in, should this year be surprising? I still say we finished 15th last year with a % of 99. How many 15th sides do that?

Betts would be a win over Rach but Rach won't be far off getting to even. I think Seedsman would be a win over Hinge or at worst even but the others all look good. But your point still stands that our team compares well to the 2017 side.

 

[1970crow]

Did this comparison with some of the players in our 2017 Grand Final side - tell me if I’m off with any of this

Jenkins… Thiltorpe WIN
Hartigan… Keane WIN
Douglas… ANB WIN
Betts… Rachele EVEN
Brown… Michalanney WIN
Seedsman… Hinge WIN
Atkins… Peatling WIN
Cameron… Rankine WIN
Otten… Fogarty WIN

there is more… but that’s already and 2025 is a remarkably better side

Makes one think and dream….

If you follow a growth projectory of our draftees and those traded in, should this year be surprising? I still say we finished 15th last year with a % of 99. How many 15th sides do that?

Reckon You’ve got Peatling wrong, needs to be up against a mid. Possibly Rankine too as his role isn’t really comparable to CC, closer to Dougie who could go into the middle. But you’re right, overall I think it’ll be better. Although, Harto was probably our best tall defender that day. Added a couple more.

Atkins - Cumming - potential win
Peatling - B Crouch - even at best
Rankine - Dougie - massive win
Knight - ANB - big win
Sloane - Dawson - win
Lever - Worrell - even
Sauce - ROB - loss

 

[1970crow]

Betts would be a win over Rach but Rach won't be far off getting to even. I think Seedsman would be a win over Hinge or at worst even but the others all look good. But your point still stands that our team compares well to the 2017 side.

Career comparison you’d be right, but reckon 2017 we had a few struggling to the line or performed well below their average. Tex v Tex is a definite loss in terms of relevant form. But Murray/Butts v Talia is win due to Talia going in clearly injured. But none of our Kpd’s are going to come close to him career wise.

 

[1970crow]

Did this comparison with some of the players in our 2017 Grand Final side - tell me if I’m off with any of this

Jenkins… Thiltorpe WIN
Hartigan… Keane WIN
Douglas… ANB WIN
Betts… Rachele EVEN
Brown… Michalanney WIN
Seedsman… Hinge WIN
Atkins… Peatling WIN
Cameron… Rankine WIN
Otten… Fogarty WIN

there is more… but that’s already and 2025 is a remarkably better side

Makes one think and dream….

If you follow a growth projectory of our draftees and those traded in, should this year be surprising? I still say we finished 15th last year with a % of 99. How many 15th sides do that?

Just to do the CC comparison, as of Friday night, it’s not great.

CC - Pedlar - massive loss

 

[Mattrox]

Did this comparison with some of the players in our 2017 Grand Final side - tell me if I’m off with any of this

Jenkins… Thiltorpe WIN
Hartigan… Keane WIN
Douglas… ANB WIN
Betts… Rachele EVEN
Brown… Michalanney WIN
Seedsman… Hinge WIN
Atkins… Peatling WIN
Cameron… Rankine WIN
Otten… Fogarty WIN

there is more… but that’s already and 2025 is a remarkably better side

Makes one think and dream….

If you follow a growth projectory of our draftees and those traded in, should this year be surprising? I still say we finished 15th last year with a % of 99. How many 15th sides do that?

Seedsman was better. Call it even.
Betts ... Rachelle might be even after a few years.

Other than that, which means our list is more talented in Fwd and Def.

Our overall midfield needs work.

We still have some questions to answer, though.

 

[Eagleboy2011]

Did this comparison with some of the players in our 2017 Grand Final side - tell me if I’m off with any of this

Jenkins… Thiltorpe WIN
Hartigan… Keane WIN
Douglas… ANB WIN
Betts… Rachele EVEN
Brown… Michalanney WIN
Seedsman… Hinge WIN
Atkins… Peatling WIN
Cameron… Rankine WIN
Otten… Fogarty WIN

there is more… but that’s already and 2025 is a remarkably better side

Makes one think and dream….

If you follow a growth projectory of our draftees and those traded in, should this year be surprising? I still say we finished 15th last year with a % of 99. How many 15th sides do that?

Agree on most, except Eddie. Eddie was a freak and will be (already is) one of our all-time greats. I see what you mean in Rash being even though. He scores freaky goals, but not like Eddie.

 

[1970crow]

Agree on most, except Eddie. Eddie was a freak and will be (already is) one of our all-time greats. I see what you mean in Rash being even though. He scores freaky goals, but not like Eddie.

Eddie did some freakish stuff, but production does matter. Rash current season not too different to Eddie’s 2017.

 

[Coopers]

In 97, we got the last two flights out of Brisbane on grand final day… costing us $1,000 each back then. Could only get accommodation out at Lilydale! In 98, we booked flights and accommodation in anticipation in April for a fraction of the cost!

Crazy, that's like a billion dollars each in todays money

 

[1990crow]

Crazy, that's like a billion dollars each in todays money

I live in Geelong now. Maybe VLine will price Gouge the train tickets.

 

[kirky]

Reckon You’ve got Peatling wrong, needs to be up against a mid. Possibly Rankine too as his role isn’t really comparable to CC, closer to Dougie who could go into the middle. But you’re right, overall I think it’ll be better. Although, Harto was probably our best tall defender that day. Added a couple more.

Atkins - Cumming - potential win
Peatling - B Crouch - even at best
Rankine - Dougie - massive win
Knight - ANB - big win
Sloane - Dawson - win
Lever - Worrell - even
Sauce - ROB - loss

It isn’t based on being better on a given day, it is about over a body of work.

Our current side would beat our 2017 side.

 

[kirky]

Agree on most, except Eddie. Eddie was a freak and will be (already is) one of our all-time greats. I see what you mean in Rash being even though. He scores freaky goals, but not like Eddie.

Rachele is in his fourth season and your memories are of Eddie in his 10th season (and his first with Adelaide).

In his first 4 seasons Eddie kicked 66 goals whilst in 3 1/2 seasons Rachele has kicked 90 goals.

I’m calling it even now with Rachele having potential to surplus Eddie.

 

[Eagleboy2011]

Eddie did some freakish stuff, but production does matter. Rash current season not too different to Eddie’s 2017.

Eddies 55 goals in 2017 hard to beat.

Rachele is in his fourth season and your memories are of Eddie in his 10th season (and his first with Adelaide).

In his first 4 seasons Eddie kicked 66 goals whilst in 3 1/2 seasons Rachele has kicked 90 goals.

I’m calling it even now with Rachele having potential to surplus Eddie.

Hope so.

 

[kirky]

My update predictor - based on losing to Hawks/Bulldogs away and to Collingwood @ home

 

[kirky]

Clubs have started putting out GF packages this week, that would have something to do with it for sure.

Ok, didn’t consider that as flight prices weren’t at that level the week before.

 

[1970crow]

It isn’t based on being better on a given day, it is about over a body of work.

Our current side would beat our 2017 side.

That’s a different discussion, you were comparing individuals against their logical replacements. That’s all I was doing. And I’m not sure that based on ‘body of work’ current side would definitely beat the 2017 side. At least body of work up to and including GF.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Just to do the CC comparison, as of Friday night, it’s not great.

CC - Pedlar - massive loss

2017 Walker to 2025 Walker, massive downgrade.

2017 Talia to Butts?

Dawson might be where Sloane is that year, we don't have someone having the same success Matt Crouch did.

Claiming Rachelle is equal to Betts, arguably the best small forward ever, is wild.

 

[1970crow]

Rachele is in his fourth season and your memories are of Eddie in his 10th season (and his first with Adelaide).

In his first 4 seasons Eddie kicked 66 goals whilst in 3 1/2 seasons Rachele has kicked 90 goals.

I’m calling it even now with Rachele having potential to surplus Eddie.

Agree that Josh’s output matches Betts, but without the mercurial acts. That said, Rachele’s goal from the boundary line was sublime, an in play checkside is more amazing and excites the crowd, but it’s still only 6 points.

If people argue Bett’s crowd excitement has extra value, it really doesn’t, it’s an instant sugar hit. What remains is the crowd’s baseline excitement level, which is related to the state of the match and the current trend. Turned a 5 goal deficit to a goal and its fever pitch, rudimentary goals register max on the excitement meter. Turned a 5 goal advantage into a point and the engagement is high, but the energy is nervousness.

Long way of saying Rach and Betts are equal, per your original post.

 

[1970crow]

Eddies 55 goals in 2017 hard to beat.

Hope so.

Rach is averaging 2.3 per game. If it’s about goals, there’s little difference at this stage.