DT 2011 Forwards Thread

[azza7071]

Thought about him, briefly. The (early) problem is he has a bye with Hawthorn and Geelong, so if you're trying to plan for these bye's you basically have to choose one (or two if you're brave) of Pav, Franklin, Chappy or SJ. I've gone with Franklin. Had Pav every year so far, but he was a bit disappointing in patches last year. I'll see how he's going after the round 6 bye and consider bringing him in then.

Yeah fair enough, good point there. Thanks

 

[mezaire]

Man Petrie is making it hard to pick a fwd line.

Kicked 4 today and by the sound of it would of gone close to a DT ton but with his suspension misses 2 out of the first 3 games.

Compare him to Yarren or Knights, he may well score better than those two by 5-10 ppg but that's negated pretty quickly with rd1 which with Petrie would make me play 2 rookies and have no reserve for rd. 1.

Big risk but worth it??

 

[Tippaz]

Man Petrie is making it hard to pick a fwd line.

Big risk but worth it??

i'm fully committed to Petrie
even if it means playing a donut rd1

 

[jonesy86]

If Leon gets picked in round 1 then I'm keeping him in my team.

He and Yarran are low-mid priced forwards both playing across half back and could rack up the touches.

 

[bombermick]

If Leon gets picked in round 1 then I'm keeping him in my team.

He and Yarran are low-mid priced forwards both playing across half back and could rack up the touches.

Also thinking about Leon, although he's not in my team atm. Anyone thinking about Goodes? Traditionally a slow starter but has been good in the pre-season matches.

 

[jonesy86]

Also thinking about Leon, although he's not in my team atm. Anyone thinking about Goodes? Traditionally a slow starter but has been good in the pre-season matches.

Hasn't he been playing mostly key forward?

Maybe SC rather than DT?

 

[Cat for Life]

Have a look at how Goodes finished 09, that was while playing as a key forward. For him it's more about form rather than position.

 

[Joshen]

Man Petrie is making it hard to pick a fwd line.

Kicked 4 today and by the sound of it would of gone close to a DT ton but with his suspension misses 2 out of the first 3 games.

Compare him to Yarren or Knights, he may well score better than those two by 5-10 ppg but that's negated pretty quickly with rd1 which with Petrie would make me play 2 rookies and have no reserve for rd. 1.

Big risk but worth it??

Bear in mind he was playing on Williams; Lake was out and also Hansen didn't play so he had the forwardline to himself.

 

[bulldogsman]

Bear in mind he was playing on Williams; Lake was out and also Hansen didn't play so he had the forwardline to himself.

Williams isn't that bad and Morris did play on him too. Williams won his fair share of contests too but Petrie obviously had the better of him according to reports. He didn't really have the forward line to himself either, Thomas did kick 6 goals.

 

[borrat]

if only danny stanley was a forward instead of a back

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

if only danny stanley was a forward instead of a back

Or a midfielder would be even better.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

What are peoples thoughts on Steve Motlop?? I know he is rated very highly by the cats and if fit would prob expect him to play a fair amount of footy this year and at $108k looks a better option than most of the rookie forwards.

 

[dav3]

i'm fully committed to Petrie
even if it means playing a donut rd1

I have him on my ruck bench at the moment, gives me the option to bring Lobbe into my forward line and switch them in a few weeks if Petrie scores well.

Anyone think having Knights and Gray on the same forward line is a little too risky? I know Gray burnt a lot of people last year but he seems to have sorted himself now (fingers crossed).

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I just cant understand how Petrie is that greater option. Priced at 53~ I cant see him avg anymore than 70 at full forward all year in a side around the 8-11 ladder prediction by myself. Not only that but he is undurable with that footy injury, could boil over at any time and the fact he also misses round 1 and 3 makes it hard to put a positive next to his name besides the maximum possible upside of 17~ i can see IMO.

Also hes hard to put down as a forward with Richardson already in my team and many teams.

 

[Benno_900]

He is capable of an 80 average.

You don't have to select him as a starter anyway, he could be a very valuable backup for rucks/forwards even at a 70 average. A backup keeper if you like.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

He is capable of an 80 average.

You don't have to select him as a starter anyway, he could be a very valuable backup for rucks/forwards even at a 70 average. A backup keeper if you like.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this. He was avg 85ish when he was fully fit, the most durable tall player in the game, who at this time played ruck and CHB his two best positions for scoring points and this was before any career threatening injury. Now you expect him to avg only 5-8 points from his best in what is expected a bottom 8 side, after a serious foot injury which are very much reoccuring and can finish careers (look at Egan and Croad), Playing deep forward.

I personally cant see it and that as i said isnt even considering he wont be playing one week, than he will return, than he will miss, than he will return - than after that we will not be sure. Will his injury reoccur or wont it.

If your picking him in your starting 33 than he will be playing IMO. Having him as a 3rd ruck is a waste of money. Hes only going to cover 1 week in his first 3 games, Z.Smith and another cheap ruck have a much greater chance of doing exactly the same if not more and they are 100k+ cheaper.

 

[samwise]

I think it also has a lot to do with your structure. With Mzungu out I wanted to get rid of 1 of my starting rookies. I wanted to have another mid pricer in the forwards who has excellent job security. The main reason I think Petrie is better than other mid pricers from Yarran down however is his ability to cover my rucks this year. Surely Petrie will outscore Smith who probably has just as many injury worries as Petrie. Petrie has Port when Sandi is out and Richmond when Cox is out so you would expect some of his better scores against those teams.

I still have Richardson, Darling and Matera on the bench who should do fine filling in for him in rounds 1 and 3 but I would also hope that Petrie will slightly outscore any rookies who many people will have instead of him in that forward position.
This is by no means a straight forward decision and there are many doubts and risks but I think there is plenty of potential upsides to be confident in going with him.

 

[Benno_900]

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this. He was avg 85ish when he was fully fit, the most durable tall player in the game, who at this time played ruck and CHB his two best positions for scoring points and this was before any career threatening injury. Now you expect him to avg only 5-8 points from his best in what is expected a bottom 8 side, after a serious foot injury which are very much reoccuring and can finish careers (look at Egan and Croad), Playing deep forward.

I personally cant see it and that as i said isnt even considering he wont be playing one week, than he will return, than he will miss, than he will return - than after that we will not be sure. Will his injury reoccur or wont it.

If your picking him in your starting 33 than he will be playing IMO. Having him as a 3rd ruck is a waste of money. Hes only going to cover 1 week in his first 3 games, Z.Smith and another cheap ruck have a much greater chance of doing exactly the same if not more and they are 100k+ cheaper.

There are risks in picking him, yes. But it's the same with most ruck rookies.

All your talk about his injury is just speculation. You know **** all about it, he could just as likely be 100%. Croad and Egan? They never got back on the park. Petrie came back after 9 rounds injured last season and scored a 72 straight up which is pretty decent. He's had no dramas this preseason.

Petrie played CHB in 2009? Fair effort to kick 27 goals from there. He played CHF and pinch hit in the ruck - he will play a similar role this season.

Again, dismissing North as a bottom 8 side. At the very least, they'll finish in a similar position to last season (just outside the eight). And the team's performance is not so relevant here, we aren't talking a 100 average.

And I'm not saying pick Petrie just to keep him as 3rd ruck. You'll need him to cover Cox or Sandilands (or both) in rounds 5 and 6 - after that, you could just downgrade a forward rookie who has made some cash to a R/F rookie (your new 4th ruck) and switch Petrie to the forwards. He is now covering both positions and will be used regularly with all the byes. Better to have 70-80 scores covering than <60 scores from your other ruck/fwd rookies. If you think the extra 100K on the bench is going to cripple your season for the first 4 rounds - despite the fact you'll have much more than that missing almost every week through byes - then don't pick him.

 

[borrat]

i.m.o petrie's suspension is an absolute god send and about f*ckin time to with mzungu and callinan out

SHOULD everything go to plan come round 5

out-smith and dixon

in petrie and tippet

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I see alot of teams with Sylvia in it, but i struggle to see the upside in him. I wont be picking the guy unless an injury occurs to one of my premiums and he simply gets picked on being next best.

 

[Benatration]

I see alot of teams with Sylvia in it, but i struggle to see the upside in him. I wont be picking the guy unless an injury occurs to one of my premiums and he simply gets picked on being next best.

I can see him not getting injured...I can see him turing that 96 average into a 100. Lack of other decent options (The only 2 "safe" forward line options at the start of the year are Buddy and Voldt). What's no to like?

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I can see him not getting injured...I can see him turing that 96 average into a 100. Lack of other decent options (The only 2 "safe" forward line options at the start of the year are Buddy and Voldt). What's no to like?

I agree with you about the fact his history of durability problems is overrated. But it still must be considered as he has missed so many games every year and never played a full season. For a player of his price his durability is just about as bad as it gets.

But the main reason i see with him is bottom 8 side, Number 1 tagged player, scoring poorly in NAB as a team, lost several strong hold mids who could somewhat protect him last year.

Bottom 8 side: I cat see Melbourne making the 8 or getting near it this year, there side doesnt actually look that great and they have lost a few quality players (Bruce, Macdonald, Morton, Frawley and also Cheney who could do some very good jobs).

Number 1 tag: I cant see why anyone else would get tagged ahead of Sylvia at melbourne. Hes an impacting player who can play forward and also kick goals and have a great affect on games. Davey is the only player who could take the tag away every now and again that i can think of.

Scoring Poorly in NAB: Not Sylvia but more as a team basis. Have a look at there highest scoring player, they have severely struggled to put up points in the NAB. Different strategies, different game plans maybe?? I havnt watched but the numbers are very convincing. I dont know how they went against the hawks but they were smashed in the second half and the first half the hawks played an avg side and were trying players out in new positions. Last year Melbourne were the 6th best DT side as a whole this was behind Geelong, Stk, Collingwood, Buldogs, Carlton in that order (look similar to the ladder??). From what ive seen in the NAB they have been a poor DT side.

Durability Facts:
- Most games played in H&A season = 18 games
- Last 6 seasons has missed 6 games on avg every year
- Only played 15 games last year

100 + scorers from which teams?? Now everyone is picking Sylvia thinking he can avg over 100 which is a good reason, because you wouldnt be picking him confidently on playing more than 18 games. Hes priced very high at 96 and you should be asking yourself if you think Melbourne are a bottom 8 side which other players in your DT you have from a bottom 8 side priced anywhere near as high as he is ??????

Also look where the 100+ scorers come from, TOP 8 TEAMS?? yes. In fact 18/19 players IIRC in 2009 that avg above 100 were from top 9 teams. Yep thats right.

 

[Opportunity Cost]

I really rate Sylvia as a player in general (not just DT terms). I currently have 5 keeper forwards and backs and I can't see any other forward I could even consider.

These are Franklin, Sylvia, Goodes, Riewoldt and Higgins.
I have Higgins who I'm happy to have as my 7th forward so I am willing to count him as a keeper.

 

[54Dogs]

Number 1 tag: I cant see why anyone else would get tagged ahead of Sylvia at melbourne. Hes an impacting player who can play forward and also kick goals and have a great affect on games. Davey is the only player who could take the tag away every now and again that i can think of.

Davey will get the number one tag EVERY week bar none. His hurt factor is beyond compare in that side and IMO he is in the top 3 kicks in the AFL. He will never be allowed to run free by any opposition coach.

 

[SloppyJoe]

I can't see any other forward I could even consider.

Surely Stevie J has come into consideration?