Expectations for 2017 ?

[Pessimistic]

Top 8?

North weren't too flash, way off the pace. But the other ten teams couldn't reel them in. It one thing to think Hawks (or any other top seven from last year) will falter it's quite another to think enough of the also rans can push up

 

[Billyc]

The popular view at the moment is that we will drop, possibly out of the 8. I understand how people arrive at that conclusion. We had a lot of close finishes in 2016, got thrashed in the midfield most weeks, bowed out in straight sets and then lost our top 2 from the B&F (one being our best player). Concluding that we will struggle on that information is not unreasonable.

But I don't agree. Our ladder position may have flattered us a little but we finished equal top (despite having the toughest draw and the burden of being the hunted every week) and should have won our qualifying final. We beat both grand finalists during the year.

Sam Mitchell is a big loss and I don't agree with the decision to move him on. But before 2016 it was widely stated that Hawks could not win until Roughead returned from his knee injury and that he was our most important player. I shared that view and although Mitchell has been our best player during the era of domination, Roughead has been our most important. Mitchell out and Roughead in is a net draw in my opinion.

Tom Mitchell for Lewis is a net gain. Mitchell wins more contested footy, defends properly and doesn't get burnt the other way like Lewis.

Vickery in for Ceglar is a net gain. He will offer an option up forward and relief in the ruck. Roughead and Vickery will significantly help Gunston and Sicily swho should also improve in 2017.

O'Meara in for Hill is a massive net gain if he is fit, a net loss if he is not. O'Meara's fitness is obviously one of the great unknowns. His talent is not.

The rest comes down to natural improvement/decline. I presume Hodge, Gibson, Burgoyne and Birchall will drop off a bit. The question is how much.

I also presume the likes of Rioli, Smith, Frawley, Breust will maintain their very high standards.

I presume some of Lovell, Burton, Sicily, Brand, Howe, Stewart, O'Rourke, Langford etc will improve. The question is how many of them and by how much.

I think there are very reasonable grounds to think we can improve on 2016 and therefore contend in 2017 (keeping up with GWS is another story). Equally if a few key players go down, recruits don't get fit or young guys don't come on at all, we could drop off significantly.

 

[Manila_Hawk]

Around 5-8 feels right to me.

Out
-------
Sam, Jordan, Hilly

In
---
JOM, Tom, Vickery.
To that list I add Roughy and Burton.
(Yes I know Burton played a few games, but now he has had a full pre-season).

Where did we struggle last year?
---------------------------------------
Centre clearances. I think JOM plus Tom plus changes to game style plus maybe Lovell can solve that.

Bombing long to an undersized forward line.
Vickery and the big Rough should fix that.

Defence. Really need someone to help Chippa and Gibbo out. I think Burton is that person and maybe KB (although I haven't heard much about his training this year).

Questions.
Can Hartung cover for Hill? Hopefully.
Can JOR make it? I think not... but we can hope.
Can Pittonet step up? I really think he can....

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Connors fast-tracked. Losing Hodgey, Gibbo and probably Burgers at the end of the year will be another huge change.

Exciting times.

 

[palmomagpie]

The popular view at the moment is that we will drop, possibly out of the 8. I understand how people arrive at that conclusion. We had a lot of close finishes in 2016, got thrashed in the midfield most weeks, bowed out in straight sets and then lost our top 2 from the B&F (one being our best player). Concluding that we will struggle on that information is not unreasonable.

But I don't agree. Our ladder position may have flattered us a little but we finished equal top (despite having the toughest draw and the burden of being the hunted every week) and should have won our qualifying final. We beat both grand finalists during the year.

Sam Mitchell is a big loss and I don't agree with the decision to move him on. But before 2016 it was widely stated that Hawks could not win until Roughead returned from his knee injury and that he was our most important player. I shared that view and although Mitchell has been our best player during the era of domination, Roughead has been our most important. Mitchell out and Roughead in is a net draw in my opinion.

Tom Mitchell for Lewis is a net gain. Mitchell wins more contested footy, defends properly and doesn't get burnt the other way like Lewis.

Vickery in for Ceglar is a net gain. He will offer an option up forward and relief in the ruck. Roughead and Vickery will significantly help Gunston and Sicily swho should also improve in 2017.

O'Meara in for Hill is a massive net gain if he is fit, a net loss if he is not. O'Meara's fitness is obviously one of the great unknowns. His talent is not.

The rest comes down to natural improvement/decline. I presume Hodge, Gibson, Burgoyne and Birchall will drop off a bit. The question is how much.

I also presume the likes of Rioli, Smith, Frawley, Breust will maintain their very high standards.

I presume some of Lovell, Burton, Sicily, Brand, Howe, Stewart, O'Rourke, Langford etc will improve. The question is how many of them and by how much.

I think there are very reasonable grounds to think we can improve on 2016 and therefore contend in 2017 (keeping up with GWS is another story). Equally if a few key players go down, recruits don't get fit or young guys don't come on at all, we could drop off significantly.

I think the AFL world tends to forget the impact that Rough has for us. I think we will but much better off all round when he's sitting in the team. With Rough and Vickery up in the forward line, that frees up some players to go in the middle etc. Going to be a very interesting year. I really don't know what to expect from us this year, and in a way, I'm probably more excited than i've been for a while. The last 4 or so years I've gone in expecting a high high finish, so you become a little bit less appreciative of wins when you're expecting them. Just shits me that people have written us off and will love to see our downfall, but probably won't give us credit where it's due if we manage to go top 4/grand final

 

[Thaihawk]

I am going for a top 4. We have 13 first round draft picks on our list; add that to a reasonable draw, and a couple of "ifs" I believe we are in for a good year.
The Losses of Mitch, Lewis and Hill should adequately be covered by Jom -if he can play at his best for the season, and finals, Tom Mitchell, and of course our new captain and recruit Big Rough. With his new responsibilities, I can see him spending more time on the ball. Add Ryan Burton to this group and there is some startling talent coming through the ranks.

We also should expect good seasons from Big Boy, Vickery, Shoey, O'Rourke and Frawley, after they all went in the first round in their drafts.

Then there are the old stalwarts Hodge, Burger, Birch, Gibbo, Stratts, Shiels, Smith, Doc and that little champ Cyril.

I am expecting Lovell, Brand Heatherley and a few other youngsters will also improve, and, who knows, maybe a potential Hodge or Sam will evolve from that group.

Taking a look at our draw, it appears to me that the A.F.L forecast a decline at our club (you'd think they would have learned their lesson by now, but no,) and presented us with a reasonable challenge for the 2017 season.

We have 11 games at the G, and 4 in Tassie.
We only travel to Sydney and Perth once. and play the Giants once in Tassie.

Having followed the Hawks during the early dark days, I am not usually overconfident during preseason, but I believe we have an excellent coaching and fitness team, surrounded be very good quality people, and if Rough, O'Meara, and Burton can have uninterruped, or close to it, seasons we are in with a chance.

 

[Smooth Banana]

If you're certain he'll actually pay up should you win then you should chuck around $500 on us to miss the 8 with a betting agency ($2.60 odds as per above post).

With that $500 at $2.60 odds...
Hawks make the 8 then you'll be up $500
Hawks miss the 8 then you'll be up $300

Win-win situation as far your wallet is concerned.

Maybe I overestimated our chances of making the 8. I'm bad with numbers so help me out, I want to hold off as long as possible placing this bet. At what odds do I have to place the bet (Hawks missing the 8) so I break even? $2?

 

[cryptor]

Maybe I overestimated our chances of making the 8. I'm bad with numbers so help me out, I want to hold off as long as possible placing this bet. At what odds do I have to place the bet (Hawks missing the 8) so I break even? $2?

If we're heading towards missing the 8 then the longer you wait the lower the odds will be. The lower the odds then the greater the amount you'd need to bet to cover your bet with your colleague and cover your original stake.

Formula-wise you want the money you bet with a bookie to return you a win that is your original stake plus $1000. But if the odds are too low then it will be a lot of money and you might stand to lose a lot more if the Hawks turn it around and make the 8. The formula is:

The stake you need to lay = $1000 / (odds - 1)

So at 2.60 odds you'd need to lay is $1000/1.6 = $625

At 2.00 odds you'd need $1000/1 = $1000

At 1.50 odds you'd need $1000/0.5 = $2000!

At 1.20 odds you'd need $1000/0.2 = $5000!!

But of course should you make a hedge but the Hawks end up making the 8 and your colleague welches then you will be out of pocket your hedging stake. So if you can't be sure they'd pay up I wouldn't wait until we hit $2 odds as you could end up out of pocket more than the $1000 you currently stand to lose.

If you're getting cold feet with your bet with your colleague then my advice would be to offer to pay the colleague out now for a fraction of the $1000. A guaranteed $200 in their pocket on Monday might be a tempting proposition compared to only a chance of having a $1000 in 6 months time. Alternatively maybe try to get them to change the terms of the bet? If they're a Bombers supporter maybe suggest the terms be whoever finishes higher on the ladder after H&A? Otherwise start putting away $40/week to pay up should you lose.

 

[Smooth Banana]

If we're heading towards missing the 8 then the longer you wait the lower the odds will be. The lower the odds then the greater the amount you'd need to bet to cover your bet with your colleague and cover your original stake.

Formula-wise you want the money you bet with a bookie to return you a win that is your original stake plus $1000. But if the odds are too low then it will be a lot of money and you might stand to lose a lot more if the Hawks turn it around and make the 8. The formula is:

The stake you need to lay = $1000 / (odds - 1)

So at 2.60 odds you'd need to lay is $1000/1.6 = $625

At 2.00 odds you'd need $1000/1 = $1000

At 1.50 odds you'd need $1000/0.5 = $2000!

At 1.20 odds you'd need $1000/0.2 = $5000!!

But of course should you make a hedge but the Hawks end up making the 8 and your colleague welches then you will be out of pocket your hedging stake. So if you can't be sure they'd pay up I wouldn't wait until we hit $2 odds as you could end up out of pocket more than the $1000 you currently stand to lose.

If you're getting cold feet with your bet with your colleague then my advice would be to offer to pay the colleague out now for a fraction of the $1000. A guaranteed $200 in their pocket on Monday might be a tempting proposition compared to only a chance of having a $1000 in 6 months time. Alternatively maybe try to get them to change the terms of the bet? If they're a Bombers supporter maybe suggest the terms be whoever finishes higher on the ladder after H&A? Otherwise start putting away $40/week to pay up should you lose.

Nah mate, I always pay up. He's a Doggies supporter so who finishes higher is also out of the question, wouldn't change terms of bet anyway.

I was asking about putting a bet on us not to make the 8, like you originally suggested. I want to hold off until I'm certain (at least 8-10 rounds). How much of that 1000 do I use to make a bet on us missing the 8?

Last time I placed a bet was when Doriemus won the Melbourne cup, that long

 

[Smooth Banana]

If we're heading towards missing the 8 then the longer you wait the lower the odds will be. The lower the odds then the greater the amount you'd need to bet to cover your bet with your colleague and cover your original stake.

Formula-wise you want the money you bet with a bookie to return you a win that is your original stake plus $1000. But if the odds are too low then it will be a lot of money and you might stand to lose a lot more if the Hawks turn it around and make the 8. The formula is:

The stake you need to lay = $1000 / (odds - 1)

So at 2.60 odds you'd need to lay is $1000/1.6 = $625

At 2.00 odds you'd need $1000/1 = $1000

At 1.50 odds you'd need $1000/0.5 = $2000!

At 1.20 odds you'd need $1000/0.2 = $5000!!

But of course should you make a hedge but the Hawks end up making the 8 and your colleague welches then you will be out of pocket your hedging stake. So if you can't be sure they'd pay up I wouldn't wait until we hit $2 odds as you could end up out of pocket more than the $1000 you currently stand to lose.

If you're getting cold feet with your bet with your colleague then my advice would be to offer to pay the colleague out now for a fraction of the $1000. A guaranteed $200 in their pocket on Monday might be a tempting proposition compared to only a chance of having a $1000 in 6 months time. Alternatively maybe try to get them to change the terms of the bet? If they're a Bombers supporter maybe suggest the terms be whoever finishes higher on the ladder after H&A? Otherwise start putting away $40/week to pay up should you lose.

Oh no, he will pay up. Made plenty of bets in the past, both paid up. So I don't have to worry about that, if that helps. Gimme those numbers again, might have to place that bet after all. I fukin hope we get our s**t together so I can sit on that $1000.

 

[cryptor]

Nah mate, I always pay up. He's a Doggies supporter so who finishes higher is also out of the question, wouldn't change terms of bet anyway.

I was asking about putting a bet on us not to make the 8, like you originally suggested. I want to hold off until I'm certain (at least 8-10 rounds). How much of that 1000 do I use to make a bet on us missing the 8?

Last time I placed a bet was when Doriemus won the Melbourne cup, that long

The current odds for Hawthorn to miss the 8 with Sportsbet are 2.15...

If you'd like to guarantee you win the same amount of money either way you will need to take those odds right now with a stake of $930.23. Either way (providing everyone pays up) you walk away with $69.77.

If you'd like to avoid being out of pocket should we miss the 8, while also maxmising your winnings should we make the 8, you'll need to take those odds with a stake of $869.57. If we make the 8 then you'll walk away with $130.42, and should we miss you'll break-even.

You need to move fast though. If we get thumped by Adelaide then kiss those odds good bye.

 

[Smooth Banana]

The current odds for Hawthorn to miss the 8 with Sportsbet are 2.15...

If you'd like to guarantee you win the same amount of money either way you will need to take those odds right now with a stake of $930.23. Either way (providing everyone pays up) you walk away with $69.77.

If you'd like to avoid being out of pocket should we miss the 8, while also maxmising your winnings should we make the 8, you'll need to take those odds with a stake of $869.57. If we make the 8 then you'll walk away with $130.42, and should we miss you'll break-even.

You need to move fast though. If we get thumped by Adelaide then kiss those odds good bye.

Ye I'm gonna place the bet and cut my losses. This is why I don't gamble, just not good at it and doesn't do it for me.

Lesson learnt for me. I've been accustomed to winning so many Hawthorn related bets over the years with co-workers, I got carried away making a $1000 bet Even if Hawthorn make the 8 and I break even, being in the finals will be my win.

Thanks for your help. Kids! Don't gamble.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

My expectations haven't changed too much - still expect us to finish the season with one finals win

 

[HODGEYROAD]

I'd change my vote from 4-6th to 9th-12th if the Poll was still open.

 

[cryptor]

Ye I'm gonna place the bet and cut my losses. This is why I don't gamble, just not good at it and doesn't do it for me.

Lesson learnt for me. I've been accustomed to winning so many Hawthorn related bets over the years with co-workers, I got carried away making a $1000 bet Even if Hawthorn make the 8 and I break even, being in the finals will be my win.

Thanks for your help. Kids! Don't gamble.

You did pretty well to get even odds from your colleague at the time. Your real mistake was not doing the hedging bet back when the odds were at 2.60 to guarantee yourself a tidy return regardless of the result.

On the bright side, following what I posted you can still walk away a winner, and if your colleague wins your bet maybe they'll be conditioned to make more bets with favourable odds in the future.

But yeah, don't bet more than you're willing to lose.

 

[crazywildhorse]

We'll come home with a wet sail.

 

[Smooth Banana]

You did pretty well to get even odds from your colleague at the time. Your real mistake was not doing the hedging bet back when the odds were at 2.60 to guarantee yourself a tidy return regardless of the result.

On the bright side, following what I posted you can still walk away a winner, and if your colleague wins your bet maybe they'll be conditioned to make more bets with favourable odds in the future.

But yeah, don't bet more than you're willing to lose.

Yes but at the time you posted that, I was certain we would make the finals. I didn't wanna part with my $. I still feel we can make it, but not certain anymore after what we dished up against the bombers. Definitely a transition year for us I've accepted now, which is cool.

Just feels weird saying that. After our dominance, I expect us to win the flag every year. I can honestly say, since 2011, I felt the Hawks can win every game we've played. Every one. Such was our team. Ahh good times.

 

[crazywildhorse]

Yes but at the time you posted that, I was certain we would make the finals. I didn't wanna part with my $. I still feel we can make it, but not certain anymore after what we dished up against the bombers. Definitely a transition year for us I've accepted now, which is cool.

Just feels weird saying that. After our dominance, I expect us to win the flag every year. I can honestly say, since 2011, I felt the Hawks can win every game we've played. Every one. Such was our team. Ahh good times.

The comp is going to be very even this year in general. Everyone apart from maybe Brisbane, North and Carlton could make the finals.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Looks like 0.6 % of this board will be correct. Predator35 Genius.