Racing February Daily Punt- The Winx Farewell Tour

[bigpapagman]

Also you're forgetting W.Pike is on board which basically means he'll be ridden frozen cold with no chance and flash home for fourth.

 

[bigpapagman]

Also you're forgetting W.Pike is on board which basically means he'll be ridden frozen cold with no chance and flash home for fourth.

Seriously, that ******* campaigner could find Jungle Edge 6 pairs back the fence.

 

[bigpapagman]

I'm gonna turn his plane around.

 

[99 Problems]

Would possibly be keen Graff if he wasn't a squib 3yo.

I said straight after the Lightning nothing will turn around the form on the first two. I have little doubt OB and IHT will improve more than enough out to 1200 to offset any weight diff with Graff.

Possibly a bit harsh on Graff. He’s put together impressive runs in the Everest and Lightning and imo is the best of the 3yo sprinters, but I agree he’s probably just not as good as these.

I think it’s fair to say that one of OB, IHT, Eduardo or SAL will be winning the race. I’d have to think you’ll get better than $4 on the day for OB if they all go to the race so I’d be waiting to back him instead of taking the current price.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Possibly a bit harsh on Graff. He’s put together impressive runs in the Everest and Lightning and imo is the best of the 3yo sprinters, but I agree he’s probably just not as good as these.

I think it’s fair to say that one of OB, IHT, Eduardo or SAL will be winning the race. I’d have to think you’ll get better than $4 on the day for OB if they all go to the race so I’d be waiting to back him instead of taking the current price.

you seem to have miss-spelt Nature Strip

 

[rideclutch]

Possibly a bit harsh on Graff. He’s put together impressive runs in the Everest and Lightning and imo is the best of the 3yo sprinters, but I agree he’s probably just not as good as these.

I think it’s fair to say that one of OB, IHT, Eduardo or SAL will be winning the race. I’d have to think you’ll get better than $4 on the day for OB if they all go to the race so I’d be waiting to back him instead of taking the current price.

That's the exact order I'd have them in too, but I can see OB going the other way price wise.

Popular horse off a flashing light run - I reckon he starts sub 3.

 

[HeathySure]

If you think a horse is a potential top line sprinter and you don't back it at 8.50 in an Oakleigh plate and then claim after the fact you'd now mark it $3 I think questions need to be asked about your methodology

#aftertiming

we had a 10 day argument about post race unders and overs back at melbourne cup time and you now contradict yourself??

 

[HeathySure]

The same race where she cannoned the last 600m in 32.21 and the last 200m in 10.87 off absolutely 0 tempo, and potentially showed us her most freakish performance to date?

You're a fool, and you only deserve to watch Kyneton and Seymour BM58s.

dude you are not getting my point . its all about racing in traffic on a tight track, Of course she is lengths better than them but if you race in fields with better quality and you are a get back horse you are going to eventually get beaten. If that race was at Caulfied she almost certainly get beaten

as for calling me a fool.. thats your perogative, but i will never lower myself to insults i will just argue my point.

 

[99 Problems]

That's the exact order I'd have them in too, but I can see OB going the other way price wise.

Popular horse off a flashing light run - I reckon he starts sub 3.

He probably shortens a touch more leading up to the race, but once 9am race day comes around the big boys should re-shape the market. One pro/syndicate backed Graff in the Everest ($20-$10) and another backed In Her Time in the lightning which was why she shortened. A couple of those (well one in particular) bet around OB and you’ll get your $4+. Corps aren’t concerned with how much one is backed these days, just who backs it.

 

[FallingLiefs]

dude you are not getting my point . its all about racing in traffic on a tight track, Of course she is lengths better than them but if you race in fields with better quality and you are a get back horse you are going to eventually get beaten. If that race was at Caulfied she almost certainly get beaten

as for calling me a fool.. thats your perogative, but i will never lower myself to insults i will just argue my point.

which is sort of the point, the only way she can possibly be beat is by luck and probably team riding because good horses find gaps because they are traveling so well. It in no way reduces her reputation or how good she is. Yes, she could get beat in bigger field when everything goes wrong but that's like saying a Seymour BM58 horse can win a G1 race if all the horses Bradbury'd. Waller declares her preparation on day 1 of the autumn/spring and the other horses avoid her. there's no protection unless it's avoiding bottomless tracks for the good of her main targets.

She's not protected and the only thing you can really say is her record could be different if she raced fields of 18 week in week out, which you've clearly made your point. People probably agree but fact is she's that good that she can counter every problem in running she's faced thus far and by no fault of her own she hasn't had to find too much traffic.

 

[rideclutch]

He probably shortens a touch more leading up to the race, but once 9am race day comes around the big boys should re-shape the market. One pro/syndicate backed Graff in the Everest ($20-$10) and another backed In Her Time in the lightning which was why she shortened. A couple of those (well one in particular) bet around OB and you’ll get your $4+. Corps aren’t concerned with how much one is backed these days, just who backs it.

Cool - I'd be happy with $4 on the day, anything less and I'm just watching.

 

[bigpapagman]

dude you are not getting my point . its all about racing in traffic on a tight track, Of course she is lengths better than them but if you race in fields with better quality and you are a get back horse you are going to eventually get beaten. If that race was at Caulfied she almost certainly get beaten

as for calling me a fool.. thats your perogative, but i will never lower myself to insults i will just argue my point.

So Moonee Valley is a nice, wide, big old track? I understand the fields are smaller at MV, but jeez you're grasping at straws. She's shown time and time again that literally nothing can stop her from winning. Given, yes, her only start at Caulfield was a track gallop and that's basically the only evidence you can show that might suggest she could lose. Inventing a pretend race with a big field at a track she's largely untested at. Wow.

 

[AvantGardener]

If you think a horse is a potential top line sprinter and you don't back it at 8.50 in an Oakleigh plate and then claim after the fact you'd now mark it $3 I think questions need to be asked about your methodology

#aftertiming

He rates Eduardo a lot higher now because Eduardo put in a career best performance in the highest grade he has raced in. Shock horror.

 

[TBellicious]

Aquis Farm having some fun with their horses. EXTRA BRUT off to Royal Ascot (along with Houtzen) to run in the Queen Anne Stakes.

 

[HeathySure]

So Moonee Valley is a nice, wide, big old track? I understand the fields are smaller at MV, but jeez you're grasping at straws. She's shown time and time again that literally nothing can stop her from winning. Given, yes, her only start at Caulfield was a track gallop and that's basically the only evidence you can show that might suggest she could lose. Inventing a pretend race with a big field at a track she's largely untested at. Wow.

i am not inventing anything
i have watched races for 40 years, I punted professionally from 1991 to 2003, my edge was watching every single race from start to finish before everyone had access to all the races. Iknowthedog (ashamed that i know him but oh well!) can back me up on this. I have seen hundreds of good horses been beaten in bad races because of bad luck mostly because the races had depth. Winx has won 30 in a row, I am NOT taking anything away from that, shes a star and one of the best i have seen BUT every other champion of the turf went to a new level when they reached a pinnacle. Winx has not. She is just doing the same thing over and over. No Melb or Caulfied cup, no overseas, no Everest which i think she will win by 3 lengths if set for it. Her record is being protected 100 percent. THEY DID NOT RACE HER BECAUSE BOWMAN GOT SUSPENDED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i am not criticising Winx. Its not her fault,Is Waller and his cronies that i am critical of. Couldnt give a stuff if Winx is racing Saturday. she will kill them. I have seen it 30 times in a row already. Run her overseas, run her in the Melbourne Cup. run her in a major sprint. Make life interesting for once.

One of my big disappointments was never seeing Black CAvier let go even though she my equal favourite horse of all time, But at least she ran overseas half fit and she won a Newmarket with a big weight and had a decent horse to oppose in Hay List.

 

[iluvparis]

you seem to have miss-spelt Nature Strip

Yes we know he is a squib but he isn't a 3yo like Graff

 

[iluvparis]

That's the exact order I'd have them in too, but I can see OB going the other way price wise.

Popular horse off a flashing light run - I reckon he starts sub 3.

Agreed - feels like he jumps $3 fave before racing into equine immortality.

 

[iluvparis]

we had a 10 day argument about post race unders and overs back at melbourne cup time and you now contradict yourself??

?!?!?! WTF I was on the same side I am now you moron

 

[iluvparis]

dude you are not getting my point . its all about racing in traffic on a tight track, Of course she is lengths better than them but if you race in fields with better quality and you are a get back horse you are going to eventually get beaten. If that race was at Caulfied she almost certainly get beaten

as for calling me a fool.. thats your perogative, but i will never lower myself to insults i will just argue my point.

That's why she is the GOAT mate - she doesn't get beaten. All our tracks are tight by world standards. She is that good she never gets into trouble.

 

[iluvparis]

He probably shortens a touch more leading up to the race, but once 9am race day comes around the big boys should re-shape the market. One pro/syndicate backed Graff in the Everest ($20-$10) and another backed In Her Time in the lightning which was why she shortened. A couple of those (well one in particular) bet around OB and you’ll get your $4+. Corps aren’t concerned with how much one is backed these days, just who backs it.

Yes but what if one of those syndicates backs OB this time.

I reckon you are kidding yourself if you think you will get $4+ by the jump.

 

[HeathySure]

Amphitrite drawn 5
Very Elegant 2
Mystic Journey 1

Theres your tri
Hawkshot for the 1st 4

easy money

 

[bigpapagman]

i am not inventing anything
i have watched races for 40 years, I punted professionally from 1991 to 2003, my edge was watching every single race from start to finish before everyone had access to all the races. Iknowthedog (ashamed that i know him but oh well!) can back me up on this. I have seen hundreds of good horses been beaten in bad races because of bad luck mostly because the races had depth. Winx has won 30 in a row, I am NOT taking anything away from that, shes a star and one of the best i have seen BUT every other champion of the turf went to a new level when they reached a pinnacle. Winx has not. She is just doing the same thing over and over. No Melb or Caulfied cup, no overseas, no Everest which i think she will win by 3 lengths if set for it. Her record is being protected 100 percent. THEY DID NOT RACE HER BECAUSE BOWMAN GOT SUSPENDED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i am not criticising Winx. Its not her fault,Is Waller and his cronies that i am critical of. Couldnt give a stuff if Winx is racing Saturday. she will kill them. I have seen it 30 times in a row already. Run her overseas, run her in the Melbourne Cup. run her in a major sprint. Make life interesting for once.

One of my big disappointments was never seeing Black CAvier let go even though she my equal favourite horse of all time, But at least she ran overseas half fit and she won a Newmarket with a big weight and had a decent horse to oppose in Hay List.

Winning a Newmarket with a 58kg is a sight different to being the topweight in a Melbourne Cup, champ. I can’t see why you have a problem with them racing her where she can win, protected or not. Any horse should be placed in races they can win. I’m not doubting your knowledge of horse racing, but your opinions here are making you come off as one of the idiots on the racing.com comments section on Facebook. I’d like to have seen her come down for the All Star and the Aus Cup, but they’re looking after her record, and you’d be mad not to. Take your punter/spectator glasses off and put your owner glasses on. Would you push to put her in a handicap and have her run around with 60+?

FYI, I agree with you on the point of them scratching her without Bowman, that was weak, and I reckon it was only because she was first up.

 

[AvantGardener]

In

Winning a Newmarket with a 58kg is a sight different to being the topweight in a Melbourne Cup, champ. I can’t see why you have a problem with them racing her where she can win, protected or not. Any horse should be placed in races they can win. I’m not doubting your knowledge of horse racing, but your opinions here are making you come off as one of the idiots on the racing.com comments section on Facebook. I’d like to have seen her come down for the All Star and the Aus Cup, but they’re looking after her record, and you’d be mad not to. Take your punter/spectator glasses off and put your owner glasses on. Would you push to put her in a handicap and have her run around with 60+?

FYI, I agree with you on the point of them scratching her without Bowman, that was weak, and I reckon it was only because she was first up.

Thats fine for the owners to do whats best for her but it also means its a completely valid point that her 30 in a row and status is inflated due to things like opposition falling away, no Epsom/Doncaster as top weight, no Aust Cup, no Caulfield Cup, no Everest etc.

Also what is glaringly missing from the racing calendar is a 2000m HCP Gp 1.

 

[HeathySure]

Winning a Newmarket with a 58kg is a sight different to being the topweight in a Melbourne Cup, champ. I can’t see why you have a problem with them racing her where she can win, protected or not. Any horse should be placed in races they can win. I’m not doubting your knowledge of horse racing, but your opinions here are making you come off as one of the idiots on the racing.com comments section on Facebook. I’d like to have seen her come down for the All Star and the Aus Cup, but they’re looking after her record, and you’d be mad not to. Take your punter/spectator glasses off and put your owner glasses on. Would you push to put her in a handicap and have her run around with 60+?

FYI, I agree with you on the point of them scratching her without Bowman, that was weak, and I reckon it was only because she was first up.

Dude, i am so passionate about Horse Racing its not funny. Didn't come from a racing family. I started reading the paper when i was 5 and went straight to the horses names. I was hooked then. Pretty much devoured anything on horse racing from then . I still look forward to Saturday racing no matter how crap it is these days and its not about the punt, its about discovering a great horse and watching them develop even though i like to have an interest,
I rarely bet on the big races. Melbourne cup has too many unknown factors but i still love the day and the big carnivals.

I was spoilt growing up. Horses raced way more than they do now and they had to race against each other because the race program was set up so that there was no group 1s clashing so we got champs racing champs
That changed when the breeders took over administration to serve their own purposes but thats another story.

I know i have different views to most, always have, I dont particularly care if you take notice or not. But one thing i do know and and absolutely love is my horse racing

 

[99 Problems]

Yes but what if one of those syndicates backs OB this time.

I reckon you are kidding yourself if you think you will get $4+ by the jump.

SB might back Osborne Bulls but I wouldn’t think so, no chance Dr. does. Admittedly $4 will be hard to come by if some of these don’t go but if it’s a full field then it’s not that hard to fathom. Currently $3.80 available in a bloated market.

IHT, Eduardo, SAL and likely Graff will start single figures. Sunlight, Zousain, Booker, Redkirk, shoals, brave smash, Bons Away and Encryption will be taking their 30-40% of the market. The SP profile of the field, if they all turn up, just doesn’t allow him to get much shorter.