Racing February Daily Punt- The Winx Farewell Tour

[HeathySure]

Doncaster weights are out and TAS would get 55kg

That's probably decided it for Messara

There is zero chance of him running in the Doncaster even with 53.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Eduardo is now my boy.

main concern the trainer off what was an outstanding first up run whether she can hold him together.

He looked the real deal prior to the OP where i didn't like the look of the $8.50 then he firmed but run that race again 10 times i'd take $3.00

that said also still keen on Nature Strip in the Newmarket as i was 4 months ago, but none of the corporates keen to lay him just yet.

 

[Joker91]

Osborne bulls was massive in the lightning. Carried 58.5kg first up over 1000m. First time he has ran in a race under 1200m.

The price is right ($4-1). Will be very hard to beat.

 

[iluvparis]

How many lengths difference do you put to 1.5kg on these horses over 1200m? Fair enough if it was over a longer trip, but over 1200m and such a small swing weight swing, history says it’s a non-factor.

Wrong - if that was the case there would be no such thing as WFA sprint races.

I'd say 1 to 1.5 lengths which is more than enough to turn around a nose defeat in the Lightning.

 

[iluvparis]

Eduardo is now my boy.

main concern the trainer off what was an outstanding first up run whether she can hold him together.

He looked the real deal prior to the OP where i didn't like the look of the $8.50 then he firmed but run that race again 10 times i'd take $3.00

that said also still keen on Nature Strip in the Newmarket as i was 4 months ago, but none of the corporates keen to lay him just yet.

This seems like the type of aftertiming logic only a speed fapper could come up with

 

[Gavin Excell]

There is zero chance of him running in the Doncaster even with 53.

What is TAS autumn schedule?

Understand it’s not going Derby, nor queen Elizabeth and you are suggesting Doncaster off the agenda.

If this is all correct, there’s probably an argument here about a horse being “protected “

 

[iluvparis]

Is this the best Launny Cup field ever seen?

Solid day's racing down in Tassie for a Wednesday - anyone keen to play around the faves in the features?

 

[iluvparis]

What is TAS autumn schedule?

Understand it’s not going Derby, nor queen Elizabeth and you are suggesting Doncaster off the agenda.

If this is all correct, there’s probably an argument here about a horse being “protected “

Assume they must be going Randwick Guineas then - maybe try and pinch an All Aged at the end of the carnival?

 

[Gavin Excell]

Is this the best Launny Cup field ever seen?

Solid day's racing down in Tassie for a Wednesday - anyone keen to play around the faves in the features?

The local Eastender v the raiders headed by a red hot Eytomolgy.

Quad - cant see fave Hellova st being beaten and then just like the 2 in Cup. Perhaps the mares race where Life on the Wire dominates betting is the leg that may provide value

 

[FallingLiefs]

This seems like the type of aftertiming logic only a speed fapper could come up with

not after timing. said there was only 2 horses i liked pre-race as genuine top line sprinters

 

[HeathySure]

What is TAS autumn schedule?

Understand it’s not going Derby, nor queen Elizabeth and you are suggesting Doncaster off the agenda.

If this is all correct, there’s probably an argument here about a horse being “protected “

The route he should be going is Randwick Guineas. Rosehill Guineas Derby if they were fair dinkum. The route they will go is probably Rosehill Guineas and as paris said All Aged or some WFA race Winx wont run in

 

[iluvparis]

not after timing. said there was only 2 horses i liked pre-race as genuine top line sprinters

Yet you didn't like one of them at $8.50?

 

[iluvparis]

The route he should be going is Randwick Guineas. Rosehill Guineas Derby if they were fair dinkum. The route they will go is probably Rosehill Guineas and as paris said All Aged or some WFA race Winx wont run in

Hard to find any non-Winx WFA races that will suit him outside the All Aged.

 

[Slipps]

Is this the best Launny Cup field ever seen?

Solid day's racing down in Tassie for a Wednesday - anyone keen to play around the faves in the features?

Ive been following Eastender as i know one of the owners.. but im not sure that it can beat Etymology

 

[FallingLiefs]

Yet you didn't like one of them at $8.50?

I really think there's 2 good sprinters in this race and it's Eduardo and NS but I don't really consider them great betting prospects.

but yeah drawn 21 and first up not ideal on fully exposed and hyped trial was reason to not take $8.50.

 

[FallingLiefs]

All Aged doesn't suit TAS. that deep into the prep i don't think he's running 1400 at a high enough level, probably wanting 2000m by then.

Randwick Guineas and then he could really be packed up for royal ascot before going amiss with undiagnosed training injury in preperation for the queen anne before coming back to stand at stud. Really though if they plan on going over there you have to at least put him in the doncaster.

 

[iluvparis]

but yeah drawn 21 and first up not ideal on fully exposed and hyped trial was reason to not take $8.50.

If you think a horse is a potential top line sprinter and you don't back it at 8.50 in an Oakleigh plate and then claim after the fact you'd now mark it $3 I think questions need to be asked about your methodology

#aftertiming

 

[iluvparis]

All Aged doesn't suit TAS. that deep into the prep i don't think he's running 1400 at a high enough level, probably wanting 2000m by then.

Randwick Guineas and then he could really be packed up for royal ascot before going amiss with undiagnosed training injury in preperation for the queen anne before coming back to stand at stud. Really though if they plan on going over there you have to at least put him in the doncaster.

For all we know he could just be a get back 1400/1600m horse and not get 2000

 

[FallingLiefs]

If you think a horse is a potential top line sprinter and you don't back it at 8.50 in an Oakleigh plate and then claim after the fact you'd now mark it $3 I think questions need to be asked about your methodology

#aftertiming

so even when i'm wrong about how good a horse is that doesn't win. i'm still not wrong. rodger.

 

[FallingLiefs]

For all we know he could just be a get back 1400/1600m horse and not get 2000

always a chance but i think the way he moves style of runs breeding, he's going to get it.

 

[bigpapagman]

Eduardo is now my boy.

main concern the trainer off what was an outstanding first up run whether she can hold him together.

He looked the real deal prior to the OP where i didn't like the look of the $8.50 then he firmed but run that race again 10 times i'd take $3.00

that said also still keen on Nature Strip in the Newmarket as i was 4 months ago, but none of the corporates keen to lay him just yet.

If you didn't have him at Moe, you don't deserve him at Caulfield #sixlengthsthanksparky

 

[99 Problems]

Wrong - if that was the case there would be no such thing as WFA sprint races.

I'd say 1 to 1.5 lengths which is more than enough to turn around a nose defeat in the Lightning.

History says that if horses meet each other again next start and there is a small weight swing, the horse that won the previous start is more likely to beat it home again. That number only increases in sprint races.

Going off your weight ratings though, Graff looks an absolute moral to beat them both.

 

[bigpapagman]

you cant ride her like Alizee if she was drawn inside. remember that Flemington race last year where she fell in. she would have been beaten if that race was at Caulfield, and thats my problem with her. she has basically been doing paid appearances since she won the Doncaster and its all about protecting her record.
Thats just bullshit and not what racing is about

The same race where she cannoned the last 600m in 32.21 and the last 200m in 10.87 off absolutely 0 tempo, and potentially showed us her most freakish performance to date?

You're a fool, and you only deserve to watch Kyneton and Seymour BM58s.

 

[FallingLiefs]

History says that if horses meet each other again next start and there is a small weight swing, the horse that won the previous start is more likely to beat it home again. That number only increases in sprint races.

Going off your weight ratings though, Graff looks an absolute moral to beat them both.

it's impossible to find weight differentials in form analysis. horses are never feeling as they did, trained in same manner, have same run in a race, 9 million different other factors re-applied 14 days later. To think 2 horses would run the same race 2 times in a row is absurd, the rest is confirmation bias and other factors. Weight is always open for debate. i have the 1.5kg as 0.75L which mean Graff get's close if they reproduce but IMO 1200m suits OB much more and will improve off that run. Graff probably only holds being wound up for the lightning and suiting him more.

 

[iluvparis]

History says that if horses meet each other again next start and there is a small weight swing, the horse that won the previous start is more likely to beat it home again. That number only increases in sprint races.

Going off your weight ratings though, Graff looks an absolute moral to beat them both.

Would possibly be keen Graff if he wasn't a squib 3yo.

I said straight after the Lightning nothing will turn around the form on the first two. I have little doubt OB and IHT will improve more than enough out to 1200 to offset any weight diff with Graff.