Analysis Fremantle's point deficit - What happens if they get pick 1..?

[perplexed]

We've already traded our pick, the deficit won't apply to Adelaide, it will apply to our subsequent picks

Yes, port are the same position as gws. Their highest second rounder will also get pushed back prior to trade period. I suspect gws will find a way back into the first round after the penalty has been applied.

 

[Barrysballs]

What if Freo finish last but ask and receive a priority pick then 1st becomes 2nd and 2nd becomes first


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[briztoon]

What if Freo finish last but ask and receive a priority pick then 1st becomes 2nd and 2nd becomes first


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Freo won’t get a PP.

But in this case, they would have a PP at 1 and then pick 3.

 

[Dockeroo]

Freo won’t get a PP.

But in this case, they would have a PP at 1 and then pick 3.

With about 8 games in a row in Perth to come, mostly against unsettled Victorian teams, I’d expect us to win 3 or 4 more and push up to something like 5/6 out of 17 wins at the end of the season. Finish somewhere from 12th to 15th, get something along the lines of pick 4 -6 and have it slide back to 7-9.
a lot of our players are young and will improve as the season progresses. However it doesn’t change the fact that no one knows for sure what WOULD happen if we finished last, and in a supposedly professional modern sporting competition, that’s hardly good enough.

 

[GWS Goose]

With about 8 games in a row in Perth to come, mostly against unsettled Victorian teams, I’d expect us to win 3 or 4 more and push up to something like 5/6 out of 17 wins at the end of the season. Finish somewhere from 12th to 15th, get something along the lines of pick 4 -6 and have it slide back to 7-9.
a lot of our players are young and will improve as the season progresses. However it doesn’t change the fact that no one knows for sure what WOULD happen if we finished last, and in a supposedly professional modern sporting competition, that’s hardly good enough.

I agree, it is unlikely freeo will finish last, and it will almost certainly be a non issue.
However, as you say, it is kind of not the point. The fact that we are not 100% clear on how it works is poor, and arguably worse, if what Briztoon is stating is correct, the rule is also a bad rule, it makes no sense.

 

[perplexed]

Briztoon is correct, Freo won't get pick 1 if they finish last.
The confusion here seems to be people thinking of points as a form of currency given to each pick, they aren't, they are just a device for determining where a pick should slot into the draft order.
Depending on where Freo finish their pick will shift down in rank by at least one position.
Also, they don't get change for surplus points as they haven't lost a pick, just had one demoted.

 

[Lore]

Briztoon is correct, Freo won't get pick 1 if they finish last.
The confusion here seems to be people thinking of points as a form of currency given to each pick, they aren't, they are just a device for determining where a pick should slot into the draft order.
Depending on where Freo finish their pick will shift down in rank by at least one position.
Also, they don't get change for surplus points as they haven't lost a pick, just had one demoted.

Source?

 

[GWS Goose]

Briztoon is correct, Freo won't get pick 1 if they finish last.
The confusion here seems to be people thinking of points as a form of currency given to each pick, they aren't, they are just a device for determining where a pick should slot into the draft order.
Depending on where Freo finish their pick will shift down in rank by at least one position.
Also, they don't get change for surplus points as they haven't lost a pick, just had one demoted.

I assumed it was correct. It was too crazy for someone to think that is how it worked without it being true.
It only comes into play at pick 1, every other deficit exceeds the gap between picks.
I just think it is nonsense.
If Freeo comes last and starts with 3000 points, you take off the deficit and it is 2715 or whatever it is, that is still more than 17th will have in points, it is illogical for them not to still pick first (and pay the deficit with subsequent picks)

I dont think it will happen, but the interpretation makes no sense to me

 

[perplexed]

I assumed it was correct. It was too crazy for someone to think that is how it worked without it being true.
It only comes into play at pick 1, every other deficit exceeds the gap between picks.
I just think it is nonsense.
If Freeo comes last and starts with 3000 points, you take off the deficit and it is 2715 or whatever it is, that is still more than 17th will have in points, it is illogical for them not to still pick first (and pay the deficit with subsequent picks)

I dont think it will happen, but the interpretation makes no sense to me

17th won't have 2517 points it will have pick 2. This is where everyone is getting confused.
If Freo can't afford pick 1 they drop down the order and slot in at pick 2, which it can afford.

 

[Lore]

17th won't have 2517 points it will have pick 2. This is where everyone is getting confused.
If Freo can't afford pick 1 they drop down the order and slot in at pick 2, which it can afford.

The problem I keep running into is that when you can afford pick 30, you slot in ahead of the team that had pick 30 before, not behind them.

 

[perplexed]

Source?

Previous drafts. Picks move up and down the order for several reasons, point value only applies to the pick being moved to determine where it gets moved to.

 

[perplexed]

The problem I keep running into is that when you can afford pick 30, you slot in ahead of the team that had pick 30 before, not behind them.

Er. Um. Do you? If so, yes, that makes no sense.

 

[perplexed]

The problem I keep running into is that when you can afford pick 30, you slot in ahead of the team that had pick 30 before, not behind them.

I had a think and a quick look at previous drafts and it seems consistent that a team always gets the pick it can afford and the other picks shuffle around that. Which is what I would expect.

 

[GWS Goose]

I had a think and a quick look at previous drafts and it seems consistent that a team always gets the pick it can afford and the other picks shuffle around that. Which is what I would expect.

Anywhere else in the draft they'd slot in behind 1 but in front of pick 2, they have more points than 2 requires. It is a unique situation, behind 1 but in front of 2, is still 1.
It is a very strange application of the rule to move them behind 2.

 

[Lore]

So you essentially take pick 1 out of the draft order altogether, the draft order is updated, then apply the deficit and re-insert the pick back into the order at the point in the draft that they can afford to 'buy' with it..?

How do you not have a surplus in that situation?

Information on deficits and surpluses in general is limited, but we do have this:

Also, further to this point posted late last week, hopefully the below (taken from the official AFL Bidding System Rule book issued to Club recruiters) serves as some clarification:

Once the player has been “paid” for by the forfeiting of a single selection or multiple selections, there may be a surplus of points. With the exception of the circumstance set out below, those surplus points are converted to another selection in the current National Draft using the DVI.

The exception to the above point is where a player is bid for at pick 18 or earlier and the Club’s next available selection is worth more points than the value that must be paid to acquire the player. In this case, the surplus points are not converted to a selection in the current National Draft, but are retained and used to offset any deficit arising at the conclusion of this National Draft or future National Drafts.

 

[WilloTree]

That's not how it works.

Pick 1 costs 3000 points. If Freo finish last, they'll need to deduct a point deficit, so they won't HAVE 3000 points.

Nor will Adelaide though (if they finish 17th).

This makes no sense. Not saying it's wrong, but in this situation Freo don't have 3000 points, but nor does the team who finished 17th - or anyone else for that matter.

Do we just hover around in space waiting for some points to magically appear so that the draft can start?

I've been dubious about the points system for a while, this confirms how stupid it is.

 

[perplexed]

Anywhere else in the draft they'd slot in behind 1 but in front of pick 2, they have more points than 2 requires. It is a unique situation, behind 1 but in front of 2, is still 1.
It is a very strange application of the rule to move them behind 2.

No it isn't. Pick 2 doesn't have points , it is pick 2. If the lower finishing team can't afford pick 1 then pick 2 moves up to pick 1.

 

[perplexed]

So you essentially take pick 1 out of the draft order altogether, the draft order is updated, then apply the deficit and re-insert the pick back into the order at the point in the draft that they can afford to 'buy' with it..?

How do you not have a surplus in that situation?

Information on deficits and surpluses in general is limited, but we do have this:

Surpluses only apply if a team has a new pick to use it on. That is , if they have used multiple picks to match a bid and a new pick needs to be created.
My thinking on this is only based on applications in past drafts.

 

[perplexed]

Nor will Adelaide though (if they finish 17th).

This makes no sense. Not saying it's wrong, but in this situation Freo don't have 3000 points, but nor does the team who finished 17th - or anyone else for that matter.

Do we just hover around in space waiting for some points to magically appear so that the draft can start?

I've been dubious about the points system for a while, this confirms how stupid it is.

You are missing the point. Picks get moved forward and back throughout the trade and draft period. Points are only relevant in placing the pick being relocated in the order.

 

[GWS Goose]

No it isn't. Pick 2 doesn't have points , it is pick 2. If the lower finishing team can't afford pick 1 then pick 2 moves up to pick 1.

That is nonsense.
If you can't see the logical fallacy here I don't know where to start.
Firstly we have attributed points to picks. To solve this exact problem.
Changing the value of the picks because of the deficit (which is what you are suggesting) is insane.
We are trying to work out where this pick fits in, it fits in between the team that finished 18th and 17th.
They should pick before the team that came 17th.
If it fitted in between the teams that finished 8th and 9th they would pick before the 9th teams pick.
Just like they should pick before the team that came 17th pick.

It seems that it may not work that way, but it is illogical application to say, nah, the team that came 17ths pick is worth more now is utter nonsense.

 

[GWS Goose]

You are missing the point. Picks get moved forward and back throughout the trade and draft period. Points are only relevant in placing the pick being relocated in the order.

I think you are missing the point personally.

 

[Barrysballs]

Nor will Adelaide though (if they finish 17th).

This makes no sense. Not saying it's wrong, but in this situation Freo don't have 3000 points, but nor does the team who finished 17th - or anyone else for that matter.

Do we just hover around in space waiting for some points to magically appear so that the draft can start?

I've been dubious about the points system for a while, this confirms how stupid it is.

Maybe freo get 600 extra points for Dodoro being a knob

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[perplexed]

I think you are missing the point personally.

No. You believe that picks have points associated with them. They don't. Stop claiiming that they do.

 

[GWS Goose]

Are you nuts.

What do you think the purpose of the draft point index is where they literally assign points to each pick, if it is not to "associate points to the picks"

And your argument is they don't have enough points for 1?

Any technicality around the points being attached to the picks rather than simply a value index is classic hair splitting.

The purpose of the index is obvious, and it should be obvious how it works. Fremantle finishes any where but last and it is going to work exactly as we are saying it should, they slot in after the pick they don't have enough points for and before the next pick..plus some later pick

 

[Elmer_Judd]

It's Carlton's fault for Freo being in deficit for bidding on Henry

We also bid on Tom Green, and we have no decent academy/FS prospects coming up, so we have the luxury of throwing the spanner into the draft plans of other clubs for the foreseeable future.

Feels good, man

Seriously, The Dogs are getting from all reports the best player in this draft on a silver platter, and there is not much difference between the reat of the top non academy/FS picks, so it's really not the worst/bad season to have a deficit going into the draft.