Rumour Future of the club (Bevo, board, assistant coaches, football department)

[threenewpadlocks]

I’m sorry but no power ranking would have us too 8 at the moment

Except for the mathematical tipping models that are more accurate than human observers that are the ones that wouldn't say that we are top 4?

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Main mathematical models have tipped more correctly than all (not most, all) of The Age's 'expert' tipsters, for example.

It tips more accurately over the long run by considering things like the fact that the Dogs' form may indeed be that of a top 4 team, rather than humans that are generally biased/have preconceptions (like the media disliking Bevo as a person and then than drip-feeding into the wider assessment of his coaching abilities)

 

[Deadly Darcy]

I find it strange that you would want a coach that had just coached a winning final - and likely to be one of the league's better coaches as a result - to also leave immediately thereafter. Common sense would dictate that the coach that we use to replace them would be a worse coach than the one who just won a final, and irrespective of the extent of their control, influence or whatever, that ultimately, we would be less likely to win games.

It’s been a slow burn and I don’t think an unfair one. His utter refusal to revisit the reasons behind the 2021 GC final loss continues to bewilder me. I’ve coached before - not at this level and not this game, but coaching 1 0 1 requires an analysis of “why” to determine “what” to do to improve. That being followed by being torn apart similar fashion in multiple games the ensuing years, some apparent favouritism of players i simply never understood, etc etc…..? It’s easy to blame the media for having an agenda against Bevo - mostly because they so obviously have one that is broad, wide and unjust. It makes the fact that I agreed with many of their underlying points regarding bewildering coaching decisions harder to bear. A deeper critique from our board earlier than they acted might have actually helped Bevo avoid the dramas that have eventuated over the last 6 months.

 

[dogwatch]

The Bevo debate seems to have settled into trench warfare. Resolutely defending the dug-in position but going neither forward nor back. Every win or loss starting off a new round of whizzbangs from one side or the other. An unwinnable war.

When this weary war is over​

O how happy we will be …​

​

I think I’ve become a conscientious objector.

 

[Mutt]

So now there are actually teams, the pro Bev team and the anti Bev team.

There are aspects of coaching that need improvement. On the other hand too many of our better players are still very much developing.

It is happening before our eyes and it may or may not end up with is being successful. However, if the best you can do is defend your position based on your bias and then try and defend it, not sure you will ever be happy with the club, coach amd team.

This is one of the hardest most even professional football leagues in the world with drafts and salary caps. As a smaller club since 2004 we have batted pretty well with really poor seasons counted on one hand.

Anyway keep supporting your pro or anti teams, the rest of us will just enjoy the ride with more players moving towards a high level of consistency than we have ever had

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This is a thread about the future and on Bevo in particular. Some posters are very pro-Bevo and post very frequently supporting him.... and some regularly post that they think Bevo's time is up.

 

[PurpJuice]

Except for the mathematical tipping models that are more accurate than human observers that are the ones that wouldn't say that we are top 4?

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AFL Expert Tipsters | Footy Tips & AFL Tipping | The Age

Get the latest AFL 2024 season match tips and round by round predictions from our expert tipsters.

www.theage.com.au

Main mathematical models have tipped more correctly than all (not most, all) of The Age's 'expert' tipsters, for example.

It tips more accurately over the long run by considering things like the fact that the Dogs' form may indeed be that of a top 4 team, rather than humans that are generally biased/have preconceptions (like the media disliking Bevo as a person and then than drip-feeding into the wider assessment of his coaching abilities)

I hate being negative, but Giants are way out of form at the moment, and we’ve inflated our stats against the bottom teams.

We couldn’t even beat Hawthorn.

Look at the top 10 or so teams. Are we better than any of those? Maybe Giants (on current form).

In no way are we a top 8 caliber team at the moment and a long way off top 4.

Things can change and you never know with our inexperienced players improving every week, but making finals is a pipe dream.

 

[Next Waiting]

The Bevo debate seems to have settled into trench warfare. Resolutely defending the dug-in position but going neither forward nor back. Every win or loss starting off a new round of whizzbangs from one side or the other. An unwinnable war.

When this weary war is over​

O how happy we will be …​

​

I think I’ve become a conscientious objector.

We need a Monash to break the circuit.

And of a course a Murdoch to break the story.

 

[Doggies_13]

You need to go back and have a look at the number of games played by the players in our team. We have a lot of young and inexperienced players (particularly leading up to and including the Hawks loss) it’s no surprise to me that we’ve improved since ditching the two inexperienced backs in JoD and Buku together model. Before you say what about Daniel…he’s cooked at the moment and way out of form

Our allowing of runs or 6 goals against is over 18 plus months, probably dates back to the start of 2022, not solely this year so looking at players under x games over the course of this year is not a reason for the previous 12 plus months when we were statistically one of the oldest teams in the comp. It’s not a this year issue it’s a continual issue. Again only North and West Coast conceded more runs of 6 or more goals than us in the last 18 months.

Even if it were down to selecting an inexperienced team which it isn’t.

Whose choice was it to play inexperienced players? The selection committee which the coach is a major part of. The coach who pre-season said this will be the fittest, strongest and most ready team we have put on the park under him, only to say we are a team in evolution and he’s setting us up for the future in the following weeks.

We have major deficiencies that the coach needs to fix and hasn’t since 2022. Issues for a few weeks or even a season you can point to players but when they are issues across seasons it’s a coaching failure

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I hate being negative, but Giants are way out of form at the moment, and we’ve inflated our stats against the bottom teams.

We couldn’t even beat Hawthorn.

Look at the top 10 or so teams. Are we better than any of those? Maybe Giants (on current form).

In no way are we a top 8 caliber team at the moment and a long way off top 4.

Things can change and you never know with our inexperienced players improving every week, but making finals is a pipe dream.

But it still was an good away win.

We couldn't beat Hawthorn, it was still a narrow loss.

Despite losing to Essendon I would say we are very much a better team. We have a percentage that's 25% better than them FFS.

If it was so easy to inflate stats against bottom teams, every team would do it.

I get that our W/L record is what it is but people are acting like if we'd only beaten West Coast and Richmond by 5 goals each, yet somehow fallen over the line against Hawthorn, that today, after 10 rounds, we would be a better team. We wouldn't be. We'd have won more games I would say that represented a worse team.

 

[Here we go dogs]

We have blooded a lot of new players this year.

We are seeing a number of players take strides with there development at afl/ vfl level.

Our star players of yesteryear aren’t the same (Macrae, Daniel, Libba injured & B.Smith Injured). This obviously creates challenges with game structure and personal. It’s not the superstar list that Kane Cornes proclaims.

With the change and evolution of personal it has taken some time to get the mix right.

We are seeing a mini rebuild and have split the win/losses (could have snatched another one - thought we should’ve had a big lead against Essendon at Half time which would have finished them). Our key positions are largely all kids (ex Jones) and we are getting midfield time into first and second year players.

I think this is the first year since 2021 our best football has looked capable of challenging the good sides. I don’t think they will win a premiership this year, but I think we are a better side than 22 & 23.

I think Bevo is going fine. While maintaining a competitive side he is solving long term issues.

 

[Doggies_13]

But why is this a more important statistic, or a representation of a good team, than the ultimate contribution to wins and losses?

Inexperience is only a very weak correlation to playing badly.

You're pointing out the rest of our deficiencies in the rest of the post but the net overall result - measured by points for and points against - has us as the second best team this season. I know it's an easy draw, junk time etc. but at the end of the day we've played well this season and have been somewhat unlucky in how the net overall performance across all games has distributed itself within the season. If we had only beaten Richmond by 40 points but won against Hawthorn and Essendon, for example, we would be higher on the ladder but I would argue that we're actually a worse team (given that our more recent performance was actually worse).

If the second best percentage can have deficiencies, contributing to points for and points against, by definition I could point to similar (but worse) deficiencies for 16 other teams, if I knew those teams better. For instance, GWS barely kicked a goal outside of Hogan and Greene, so their forward line outside of those two players is clearly a deficiency. Geelong have the worst stoppage clearance differential in the league - that's clearly a deficiency. Etc. etc. etc.

Your isolating this year and that’s what all the pro-Bevo’s do you want to ignore the previous 2 years of the exact same issues.

GWS don’t have a deficient forward line because in a single game they had only 2 goal kickers. If you look at GWS across the course of the last 18 months they generally have a very potent forward line and that’s with Toby Green having a poor year so far. Their general strength is there ability to move the ball in transition from defence to attack. Oppositions have taken that away from them recently through tagging Whitfield and the absence of Taylor during that period and him not returning to form since coming back from the bad concussion. The conditions yesterday hurt their transition which meant we dominated territory and we did well to put a lot of pressure on them. We did well yesterday and took their one wood away from them.

Geelongs major deficiency has been their midfield since Selwood got older and then retired. They lack a competent ruck. But to compensate they have a defensive structure and an extremely solid defence, one game against Gold Coast does not undo that. They play a strong intercept game and generally high pressure to allow defensive intercepts and tag the oppositions best mid to limit the damage there. They then use their half forwards to get high and use their kicking skill to get to a solid forward line.

Every single team has deficiencies but they work on them or adjust their game plan to ensure that opposition can’t hurt them.

2016 a a prime example, we had a defence that was due to personnel a weakness, and our rucks were a weakness. To counter that we used the third man up in the ruck and limited opposition ruck dominance. We were a high pressure, strong contested possession and clearance team that dominated territory and limited the ability of oppositions to transition quickly forcing hacked kicks allowing us to intercept.

There have been very few if any adjustments since 2022 to limit or protect our deficiencies and that’s on Bevo and that’s why people want Bevo out.

But let’s trying to narrow the argument to limit it to this year so we can make the Anti-Bevo argument into being the hawthorn loss and use inexperience as a reasons for inconsistency because otherwise your arguments don’t stand up here the 3 years of information we have

 

[Doggies_13]

It’s been a slow burn and I don’t think an unfair one. His utter refusal to revisit the reasons behind the 2021 GC final loss continues to bewilder me. I’ve coached before - not at this level and not this game, but coaching 1 0 1 requires an analysis of “why” to determine “what” to do to improve. That being followed by being torn apart similar fashion in multiple games the ensuing years, some apparent favouritism of players i simply never understood, etc etc…..? It’s easy to blame the media for having an agenda against Bevo - mostly because they so obviously have one that is broad, wide and unjust. It makes the fact that I agreed with many of their underlying points regarding bewildering coaching decisions harder to bear. A deeper critique from our board earlier than they acted might have actually helped Bevo avoid the dramas that have eventuated over the last 6 months.

Yeah that is utterly insane not to analyse the GF loss. I’ve coached a bit too and not at that level but you always review and generally you learn more from a loss than a win as a coach.

I remember losing a prelim by 13 points and analysing it for the entire off season to work out what I could have done structurally and what moves I could have made and did I make the ones I made soon enough.

But then again every time Bevo speaks his plan A is to play our game and Plan B and C are to double down on it.

 

[Struggle]

Deficiencies that aren’t really deficiencies?

In the past 18 months the only team to give up more runs of 6 goals against are North and West Coast. Now to give up 6 goal runs either you have ordinary players or inexperienced players meaning that structurally you can’t get things right. Clearly North and West Coast fall in that bracket.

We do not have poor and inexperienced players that rank 16th in the comp, so therefore it’s that your structures are not correct to combat and shut down opposition momentum. That’s a coaching issue.

We generally get beat by what we know, whether that be the oppositions intercepting defender or the oppositions midfielder and it’s because we choose not to tag. The choice of locking down or choosing the right player to lock down is again coaching. Prime example: against Fremantle Fyfe dominated us on the inside feeding their runners, solution applied was CD to go to Fyfe post stoppage when we have Harmes in the team who has done a similar job multiple times and in the centre bounces. Again that’s coaching.

Opposition transition from their defensive 50 to their forward 50 has been poor for 18 months and continues to be an issue in which our zone is constantly cut apart whether through chain of hands or through uncontested short kicking we get carved up routinely. Failure to fix that across 18 months or longer goes to coaching.

Add to that the public views on the sub combined with the constantly poor choice of sub and not utilising the sub to its maximum potential is yet again coaching and a coach letting their personal feelings on a rule prevent them utilising it as well as others in the league

But yeah we have no deficiencies and neither does Bevo

Disagree on the sub part. Most subs across the league have little to no impact on games because if they were good enough, they'd be in the starting 22

Funnily enough, ignoring Baker coming on 10 minutes into the GC game, Macrae was our most impactful of them all. Dale was in shocking form to start the year and being the sub has sparked him back close to his AA form

You pick the next best player that isn't a tall and hope for no injury

 

[HK_Bulldog]

We do seem to have stumbled/happened on a better mix. I’d be interested to know if it’s luck or by design and who has been responsible for it.

Ed trained in the midfield pre season so it was good planning by the coaches. Great move bringing Keath back. No one called that one and anyone who mentioned it was shouted down.

 

[Freshwater]

Ed trained in the midfield pre season so it was good planning by the coaches. Great move bringing Keath back. No one called that one and anyone who mentioned it was shouted down.

Keath was definitely mentioned after a few of those Buku nightmare one on one games.

 

[grassman75]

Our allowing of runs or 6 goals against is over 18 plus months, probably dates back to the start of 2022, not solely this year so looking at players under x games over the course of this year is not a reason for the previous 12 plus months when we were statistically one of the oldest teams in the comp. It’s not a this year issue it’s a continual issue. Again only North and West Coast conceded more runs of 6 or more goals than us in the last 18 months.

Even if it were down to selecting an inexperienced team which it isn’t.

Whose choice was it to play inexperienced players? The selection committee which the coach is a major part of. The coach who pre-season said this will be the fittest, strongest and most ready team we have put on the park under him, only to say we are a team in evolution and he’s setting us up for the future in the following weeks.

We have major deficiencies that the coach needs to fix and hasn’t since 2022. Issues for a few weeks or even a season you can point to players but when they are issues across seasons it’s a coaching failure

I don’t have the stats, but how many 6 goal runs have we given up this year?

I might be wrong but I feel we’ve been making changes by bringing in new players this year because those like Daniel and Macrae to some extent etc were the reason for these bursts. Slow, dinky kicks, holding up play etc

Happy to be wrong, but we culled dead wood from last year and still had to play Daniel etc last year because we lacked in other areas

 

[F6Typhoon]

Hawks are a much better side then we’re giving them credit for.. As is this years incarnation of Essendon..
Methinks we’re travelling pretty well at this stage.
Sydney definitely the yardstick this week

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Hawks are a much better side then we’re giving them credit for.. As is this years incarnation of Essendon..
Methinks we’re travelling pretty well at this stage.
Sydney definitely the yardstick this week

If we beat Sydney this week then we are back! Honourable loss most likely to leave us still wondering and prolonging the war.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

I hate being negative, but Giants are way out of form at the moment, and we’ve inflated our stats against the bottom teams.

We couldn’t even beat Hawthorn.

Look at the top 10 or so teams. Are we better than any of those? Maybe Giants (on current form).

In no way are we a top 8 caliber team at the moment and a long way off top 4.

Things can change and you never know with our inexperienced players improving every week, but making finals is a pipe dream.

When you look at Essendon second on the ladder, and Hawthorn belting Port Adelaide as the away team, I don’t think those two losses were as bad as we first thought.

If we keep on winning while blooding young players, even if we miss finals, I think that has been good progress.

 

[F6Typhoon]

Hmm.. Hawthorn, Now THATS how to lose a game

 

[maddog37]

Hmm.. Hawthorn, Now THATS how to lose a game

That’s what you get for not even trying to score for a whole quarter. Serves them right.

 

[Doggies_13]

I don’t have the stats, but how many 6 goal runs have we given up this year?

I might be wrong but I feel we’ve been making changes by bringing in new players this year because those like Daniel and Macrae to some extent etc were the reason for these bursts. Slow, dinky kicks, holding up play etc

Happy to be wrong, but we culled dead wood from last year and still had to play Daniel etc last year because we lacked in other areas

Round one v Melbourne we gave up a 5 goal run between late first quarter to mid second quarter. Also gave up 5 of the last 6 goals of the game.

Round 2 v Suns biggest run was 3 goals late in the third.

Round 3 v West Coast no goal runs.

Round 4 v Cats our biggest run was 3 goals on two occasions.

Round 5 v Essendon 4 goal run between mid second to early third quarter. 6 goal run late third to mid last quarter.

Round 6 v Saints biggest run was 2 goals twice.

Round 7 v Fremantle last 3 goals of the game

Round 8 v Hawks 3 goal run and gave up a 5 of 6 goals in a period again.

Round 9 v Tigers biggest run 2 goals.

Round 10 v giants biggest run 2 goals.

2023 season
6+ Goal run ons conceded 7
4-5 goal run ons 9

So far this season
6+ goal run ons 1
4-5 goal run ons 2

On track to concede less but this has been the easiest part of our draw to date

 

[Mojorisin]

Round one v Melbourne we gave up a 5 goal run between late first quarter to mid second quarter. Also gave up 5 of the last 6 goals of the game.

Round 2 v Suns biggest run was 3 goals late in the third.

Round 3 v West Coast no goal runs.

Round 4 v Cats our biggest run was 3 goals on two occasions.

Round 5 v Essendon 4 goal run between mid second to early third quarter. 6 goal run late third to mid last quarter.

Round 6 v Saints biggest run was 2 goals twice.

Round 7 v Fremantle last 3 goals of the game

Round 8 v Hawks 3 goal run and gave up a 5 of 6 goals in a period again.

Round 9 v Tigers biggest run 2 goals.

Round 10 v giants biggest run 2 goals.

2023 season
6+ Goal run ons conceded 7
4-5 goal run ons 9

So far this season
6+ goal run ons 1
4-5 goal run ons 2

On track to concede less but this has been the easiest part of our draw to date

Reassessing this at the bye will be interesting.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Your isolating this year and that’s what all the pro-Bevo’s do you want to ignore the previous 2 years of the exact same issues.

GWS don’t have a deficient forward line because in a single game they had only 2 goal kickers. If you look at GWS across the course of the last 18 months they generally have a very potent forward line and that’s with Toby Green having a poor year so far. Their general strength is there ability to move the ball in transition from defence to attack. Oppositions have taken that away from them recently through tagging Whitfield and the absence of Taylor during that period and him not returning to form since coming back from the bad concussion. The conditions yesterday hurt their transition which meant we dominated territory and we did well to put a lot of pressure on them. We did well yesterday and took their one wood away from them.

Geelongs major deficiency has been their midfield since Selwood got older and then retired. They lack a competent ruck. But to compensate they have a defensive structure and an extremely solid defence, one game against Gold Coast does not undo that. They play a strong intercept game and generally high pressure to allow defensive intercepts and tag the oppositions best mid to limit the damage there. They then use their half forwards to get high and use their kicking skill to get to a solid forward line.

Every single team has deficiencies but they work on them or adjust their game plan to ensure that opposition can’t hurt them.

2016 a a prime example, we had a defence that was due to personnel a weakness, and our rucks were a weakness. To counter that we used the third man up in the ruck and limited opposition ruck dominance. We were a high pressure, strong contested possession and clearance team that dominated territory and limited the ability of oppositions to transition quickly forcing hacked kicks allowing us to intercept.

There have been very few if any adjustments since 2022 to limit or protect our deficiencies and that’s on Bevo and that’s why people want Bevo out.

But let’s trying to narrow the argument to limit it to this year so we can make the Anti-Bevo argument into being the hawthorn loss and use inexperience as a reasons for inconsistency because otherwise your arguments don’t stand up here the 3 years of information we have

I'm making the point that 16 teams have worse percentages than us this season so far. Therefore, by definition, if you think we have deficiencies, do 16 other teams not have deficiencies yet somehow through 10 games have not had a better percentage than us?

"Every single team has deficiencies but they work on them or adjust their game plan to ensure that opposition can’t hurt them."

If this fundamentally matterered, or was somehow successful, they would have better points for and points against than us. They don't. So they can't be doing it very well. So the opposition is hurting them.

 

[dergert]

Idk..... I'm enjoying the ride.

 

[lachy]

Round one v Melbourne we gave up a 5 goal run between late first quarter to mid second quarter. Also gave up 5 of the last 6 goals of the game.

Round 2 v Suns biggest run was 3 goals late in the third.

Round 3 v West Coast no goal runs.

Round 4 v Cats our biggest run was 3 goals on two occasions.

Round 5 v Essendon 4 goal run between mid second to early third quarter. 6 goal run late third to mid last quarter.

Round 6 v Saints biggest run was 2 goals twice.

Round 7 v Fremantle last 3 goals of the game

Round 8 v Hawks 3 goal run and gave up a 5 of 6 goals in a period again.

Round 9 v Tigers biggest run 2 goals.

Round 10 v giants biggest run 2 goals.

2023 season
6+ Goal run ons conceded 7
4-5 goal run ons 9

So far this season
6+ goal run ons 1
4-5 goal run ons 2

On track to concede less but this has been the easiest part of our draw to date

How many of those runs last year and the year before were as long as they were as we missed absolute sitters?? Even the longer ones this year

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