Analysis Games Experience - A lesson in tempering expectations

[BEaston]

This might be of interest

View attachment 695121

Interesting. You could argue from this that out of all of those years our list was actually most imbalanced in 2016! We had around 85% of the list playing less than 100 games and almost 10% playing 200+. Roughly only 5% in that sweet spot between 100-200 games. We are noticing this now where we have a lack of veteran leaders.

The other thing I notice is that the age distribution this year is quite balanced, the issue is that it's weighted towards the lower end of the scale. Time will help with this but I think it shows the injection of one or two players in the 150+ range could help expedite the process of getting the list into that goldilocks zone.

 

[josh the gent]

Experience wins.

The problem is, we’ve pro-actively chosen to create such a young list. Terrible list management.

Stringer had to go. And we need class and goal-kicking, so I was happy to see dahlhaus gone too.

But not parlaying all of that cap space into quality, mature talent, has been an epic fail, and wasted golden Bontempelli years.

I enjoy reading your views Fronk, but this one feels a little off the mark.

Who did we actively trade out to create our young list (aside from Stringer and Dahlhaus)?

Historically we could say Lake was a deliberate decision - but didn’t that work for us?

To say it could have been resolved by clever trades also seems a pipe dream. The big name trades inward usually cost teams their first round picks - Would we really be better off?

In recent years we’d have lost English for Hurley (2016), and Bailey Smith for Wingard (2018).

Cheap trades are desirable, but not a high success rate in general...

What we are currently experiencing..... is a direct result of the utter failure that was the 2006-09 WB drafting.

I’m not sure that anything can/could really be done to resolve that!

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Bevo does it again...over 1000 games less experienced and we jagged the 4 points!

Round 16 games:

Hawthorn (2751) def Collingwood (2128)
Essendon (1851) def Sydney (1657)
Richmond (2224) def GC (1555)
Port Adel (2293) def Adel (2626)
Dogs (1813) def Geelong (2818)
West Coast (2660) def Freo (2091)
Melbourne (1883) def Carlton (2078)
North (2196) def St.Kilda (1431)
Brisbane (2288) def GWS (2109)

 

[BEaston]

Damn, St Kilda are young at the moment!

Would be interesting to see win rates against team games played differential since 2015. Way too time consuming to put that data together though.

 

[dogwatch]

Damn, St Kilda are young at the moment!

Would be interesting to see win rates against team games played differential since 2015. Way too time consuming to put that data together though.

Not if you can win the footy tipping prize with it.

 

[dogwatch]

Bevo does it again...over 1000 games less experienced and we jagged the 4 points!

Round 16 games:

Hawthorn (2751) def Collingwood (2128)
Essendon (1851) def Sydney (1657)
Richmond (2224) def GC (1555)
Port Adel (2293) def Adel (2626)
Dogs (1813) def Geelong (2818)
West Coast (2660) def Freo (2091)
Melbourne (1883) def Carlton (2078)
North (2196) def St.Kilda (1431)
Brisbane (2288) def GWS (2109)

Looks like we'll go in less experienced than Melbourne this week ... unless Libba comes in for Roarke.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Looks like we'll go in less experienced than Melbourne this week ... unless Libba comes in for Roarke.

Will depend on their changes as well. They lose T-Mac who has played over 150 but may well gain Gawn and Lever.