I still like Harry McColeman...
Toast Congratulations Harry McKay - 2021 Coleman Medallist 🏅
- Thread starter james Dean
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- Sep 2, 2017
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Harry now up to 52 goals and ahead of Walker and Riewoldt by 10 and Hawkins by 11. Each of them can kick a bag - but so could Harry in our last 5 games.
Hopefully Harry can at least get to 65 goals - otherwise he would win the Coleman with the lowest total since 1965 (excluding 2020 of course).
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Hopefully Harry can at least get to 65 goals - otherwise he would win the Coleman with the lowest total since 1965 (excluding 2020 of course).
Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Looking like his investment in a psychologist is paying immediate dividends. Purposeful approach to his shots on goal. No flakey, contrived one handed ball flipping “routine”. Get the big fella in the right zone and nothing will stop him.
Wondering if the prospect of surrendering the goal square gig to Charlie is a motivator as well. I have always thought he does his best work higher up the ground. Interesting sidelight.
Wondering if the prospect of surrendering the goal square gig to Charlie is a motivator as well. I have always thought he does his best work higher up the ground. Interesting sidelight.
iAsbestos
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If Bruce can kick 10 v Norf harry can kick 20
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Are there any stats gurus here that can give a breakdown of Harrys goals for quarters?? I would think more than 50% come in the 4th quarter.. Not sure why but he seems to dominate final quarters..
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Would give him absolute bragging rights to kick a bag on his brother
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I loved Ben's quote early in the season "I generally play on the opposition's best key forward so I guess that I will be playing on Levi Casboult "
thylacine60
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- #86
Harry McBootface.........
thylacine60
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show your working please.........
Very interesting stats. Anyone able to come up with an explanation as to why he starts off slow and has kicked the most in 3rd quarters?
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
As Jack Dyer used to say big men don’t get any shorter the longer the game goes on for.
I needed a break from work, sorry....
Table 1: How does our scoring change Qtr by Qtr?
or in chart form
Conclusion: Carlton (ex-Harry) actually has more shots on goal in H1 (55% vs 45%) but Harry has a LOT more shots on goal in H2 (65% vs 35%). There is a clear divergence here. Note, I have used shots on goal instead of score, because I want to look at opportunities, rather than goal kicking accuracy
Table 2: What % of Carlton's scores does Harry kick?
or in chart form
Conclusion: This tells similar to table 1, but shows how Harry's share of Carlton's scores is really variable. The orange line is his overall share of Carlton's scores. The individual quarters show clear divergence.
Table 3: But what about accuracy, I hear you ask....
Conclusion: Goal accuracy really falls away in H2 for Carlton. I don't know why; maybe fitness, perhaps there are more rushed behinds late in matches. Harry is clearly more accurate in Q2 and Q3.
Overall conclusion: Harry's scoring patterns are quite different to the rest of the team. So it's not really a case of 'When Carlton scores more, Harry scores more'. In fact, it's the opposite. Generally, Harry scores more when Carlton is scoring less. It could be a number of factors; Harry gets double-teamed more in H1. Talls don't get any smaller as the game wears on. Team tactics change over the course of the match. Concerningly, the simplest explanation might be that the more we target Harry, the less we are looking for the best options and the worse (or more predictable) our I50s become. So becoming Harry-centric late in games might help Harry but be at the detriment to the team....
Note: I am not a statistician and I can't provide any confidence levels behind the data, nor am I sure that Harry's scoring shot sample size is big enough to be really reliable.
Last edited:
thylacine60
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stupid completely useful diagramatic and statistically well supported post...........
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
That's the kind of informative, nerdy post I started my bigfooty career with.... until I got seduced by your pithy, sardonic, punderful one-liner posting style....
That 10 goal buffer is looking reeeaal good about now
BluesRule
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- Dec 16, 2013
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Hopefully only out for a week
The Cats should hopefully be able to strangle Riewoldt's supply this week, but every chance he kicks a bag against the Dockers next week. I kinda feel the others near the top are unlikely to kick big scores this next two weeks but I guess it's often just a crapshoot (like our shots on goal vs Geelong, boom boom)
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I want someone more intelligent than I am to come up with a creative punishment for Juice030103 for jinxing it.
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
He has to drink 30,103 litres of juice?
Don’t you mean “juice”
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