Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Shane Heard]

I’ve written here numerous times that our first 6 matches are our best chance to get some wins… matches include- Essendon, North Melbourne, Adelaide in Tassie and GWS. That’s 4 teams not won’t play finals this season. if we don’t win at least 2 of our first 6, the wooden spoon is locked.

From round 7-17, west coast in Tassie is the only game I see us winning.

It’s going to be a very long season.

Swans will grind you into a semi solid type of pulp next week ..followed by NMFC in rd 3 pulverising you into liquid pulp and that’s when we expect your fraud coach to quit with Don Scott taking over the job.
What a glorious day that’ll be.

 

[Bradkli]

It’s not only gunston’s goals that will need to be replaced, it’s his on field leadership that will be missed more. Especially with how young our team will be.

The recruitment of Fergus greene was a good one and he may get the chance early on to play the Gunston role but he’s no certainty to make it at afl level having already been delisted by the bulldogs.

Jai serong was drafted to play this role but he needs at least another season at box hill if not two.

Whilst we will have Chad Wingard back, the chances of him playing the majority of the season are slim. He will do a hammy or calf by round 4 or 5. Bookmark it.

Other than Mitch Lewis and Luke Breust, our forward line stocks are incredibly bare and bereft of quality.

One of Lloyd meek and Ned reeves will spend time down there when resting from ruck duties. Both are young and inexperienced. Max Ramsden has the potential to make it as a 2MP type but like many of our other youngsters needs another year if not two playing at box hill.

We don’t have another second key forward locked in behind mitch Lewis. Jacob Koschitzke will most probably get first crack but he’s miles off being a consistently good key forward. If Lewis goes down, which he has in previous seasons, we will struggle to kick a winning score. We will have a top 3 pick in the 2023 draft which is timely as there is 3-4 elite key forward talent. We will definitely take one.

The small forward position is also a major worry. Tyler Brockman should return from a shoulder reconstruction but is still not training and will need to come back via box hill. Sam butler played a few games last season but is still raw and is at least another season off playing quality afl football.

Dylan moore would be a perfect forward but will spend more time in the midfield next season. We need 2 of him desperately.

Is this forward line going to worry many teams next season?? I don’t think so.

HF: Wingard Koschitzke Greene
FF: meek Lewis Breust
Bench: Butler

Couldn't even get through round 1...already injured his calf...so predictable...will be lucky to play 10 games this season... Would be surprised if he is at the club next season.. O'meara and Wingard...two of Clarko's wonderful parting gifts...only cost us 2 x first round draft picks, a few second round picks and a young gun in Ryan Burton.

 

[QuietB]

Alarming performance by Hawks against a fairly young and inexperienced opponent. They appeared to give up entirely.

This is the disappointing bit - they did seem to give up.

On the flip side, effort is the easiest thing to switch on and off.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Couldn't even get through round 1...already injured his calf...so predictable...will be lucky to play 10 games this season... Would be surprised if he is at the club next season.. O'meara and Wingard...two of Clarko's wonderful parting gifts...only cost us 2 x first round draft picks, a few second round picks and a young gun in Ryan Burton.

He had cramp in the last and was taken off as the game was done according to the coach. But pat yourself on the back over an injury if you want, it doesn’t look like an extremely s**t thing for a a supporter to do at all.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I’ll once again remind anyone who’s remotely interested ..about how HFC’s lord and saviour and favourite son went about things on his way to senior coach.

Quite bizarre…

What is supposed to be wrong here?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

How many of those players will still be on Hawthorn's list in 4-5 years time (which is the time frame of when your next flag window opens)

Will Sammy Mitchell' even still be Hawthorn coach then ? Time will tell, it always does

All 13 and maybe more.

Honestly, your post is one of the stupidest things I’ve ever read. The talent identified on the list at the end of last year doesn’t change because we lose one game by a heap.

 

[PenAndPaper]

How many of those players will still be on Hawthorn's list in 4-5 years time (which is the time frame of when your next flag window opens)

Will Sammy Mitchell' even still be Hawthorn coach then ? Time will tell, it always does

In round 1, 2005 we got smashed and 11 of that team went on to be premiership players at Hawthorn. Nobody at the time would have thought that was possible and just 3 years later. Time certainly will tell but things do happen quite quickly in footy.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

If your club was as clever as you think they are, would the list be in the diabolical shape it is ?
Let’s not even contemplate the possible ramifications from the other little matter on the club’s plate at the moment.
History shows who is inevitably in the crosshairs as the losses drive the pressure from a bloodthirsty media intent on a scalp …

Yeah, we won 4 flags that led to here.

You guys threw a lot of cash in paper bags around and copped your right whack.

 

[Red Bull]

Yeah, we won 4 flags that led to here.

You guys threw a lot of cash in paper bags around and copped your right whack.

Yeah, we’ve got memories of premierships too … but they don’t count for much in the now …
And hawthorns “right whack” might be on its way soon enough …

 

[TheFourPillars]

Yeah, we’ve got memories of premierships too … but they don’t count for much in the now …
And hawthorns “right whack” might be on its way soon enough …

hahaha

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Gee, Big Footy remains incredibly reactive, doesn't it?

An admittedly pretty poor loss in Round 1 from the youngest list in the comp and immediately the spoon is guaranteed, list is a shambles, coach will be sacked, won't win a game and comparisons made to Melbourne in 2013.

Funnily enough, for the sake of the comparison, Melbourne of '13 also played a 'middling' Essendon in the first 2 rounds and they lost by 25 goals! (184 to 36)

A young team being competitive for a half and then falling away and losing by 10 goals is not good but is pretty commonplace. It does not yet warrant comparisons to the worst teams of all time - particularly those who were losing by record breaking margins.

Multiple posts in this thread (NetworkNerd, Bradkli, etc) has now declared that West Coast in Tassie is our only chance to win a game.

With all due respect to those posters, it feels like you are new to footy when you say those things (and I know you are not).

Games aren't won on paper (or even on formline).

Hawthorn will have games where we are expected to be competitive and we end up looking atrocious (a bit like on the weekend). Similarly, we'll have games where we are expected to be completely uncompetitive and we will surprise and push and even beat more highly fancied teams. IT happens every single year (Easter Monday last season a good example). Lists as young as ours will be wildly inconsistent, not just week to week but even within games. We will have trouble containing opposition momentum at times but will also have games where we are just "on" and get on a roll ourselves.

Let's enjoy the ride rather than drawing decade long conclusions from the result of every game in isolation.

 

[King Patty]

An admittedly pretty poor loss in Round 1 from the youngest list in the comp and immediately the spoon is guaranteed, list is a shambles, coach will be sacked, won't win a game

Even Essendon with top ups won a couple of games, so expect hawks to roll one of Adelaide, North or Eagles. Helps they play these in tassie too, probably due to travel factor more than anything.

You probably worry about Easter Monday though, that could be a massacre.

Round 1 has shown experienced coaches, can grind out wins - Lyon + Clako + Scott.

hawks cant really complain about being youngest list in comp when they sent some best 22 players packing, either, its their doing, and if the get Harley Reid it probably is worth it.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Even Essendon with top ups won a couple of games, so expect hawks to roll one of Adelaide, North or Eagles. Helps they play these in tassie too, probably due to travel factor more than anything.

You probably worry about Easter Monday though, that could be a massacre.

Round 1 has shown experienced coaches, can grind out wins - Lyon + Clako + Scott.

hawks cant really complain about being youngest list in comp when they sent some best 22 players packing, either, its their doing, and if the get Harley Reid it probably is worth it.

Yep, youngest list is not a complaint at all. Just highlighting the inconsistent reality of young lists.

I fully expect Hawthorn will have a shocker against one of those three clubs, just as I expect Hawthorn will beat a top 8 team at some stage.

Have absolutely no clue who or when it will be but it's just the way footy works.

 

[carloss]

Maybe Sam Mitchell is just a terrible coach?

 

[Bradkli]

Maybe Sam Mitchell is just a terrible coach?

That's a bit premature... in his first season as head coach last year we won 8 games, beating both Geelong and Brisbane. We only lost to the Demons by 10 points and led the Swans at 3/4 time before being overrun. Was he outcoached yesterday? Absolutely, but that's going to happen more often than not over the next couple of years, especially when he's coaching such a young side.

We won't know how good a coach Mitchell is until 2025. If we are still bottom 4 by the end of 2025, he will be lucky to still have a job. I don't think that will be the case.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Yeah, we’ve got memories of premierships too … but they don’t count for much in the now …
And hawthorns “right whack” might be on its way soon enough …

You seem to think Hawthorn is going through a rebuild because of some sort of mismanagement.

Like Carlton who haven’t seen anything close to a premiership in the HD era.

 

[The 747]

In round 1, 2005 we got smashed and 11 of that team went on to be premiership players at Hawthorn. Nobody at the time would have thought that was possible and just 3 years later. Time certainly will tell but things do happen quite quickly in footy.

And in round 1 2002 you got beaten by Melbourne, then three years later you got smashed in round 1. Some very optimistic posting happening in this thread.....

 

[King Patty]

Hawks had won the last 5 years round 1 encounters, they were due for a loss.

 

[BloodySwan]

Maybe Sam Mitchell is just a terrible coach?

The whole team is in a rebuild, including Mitchell.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Maybe Sam Mitchell is just a terrible coach?

Yeah, they said the same thing about Clarkson when he came in untested and had to rebuild the club from scraps.

His early teams copped some frightful beltings.

 

[The 747]

Yeah, they said the same thing about Clarkson when he came in untested and had to rebuild the club from scraps.

His early teams copped some frightful beltings.

They said the same thing about David Noble too.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

They said the same thing about David Noble too.

What’s a David Noble?

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Conceding 124 points to an Essendon forward line missing Wright and Stringer, when defence is supposed to be your most promising area of the rebuild, is extremely concerning.

Appointing James Sicily

6

James Sicily

Age

29

Ht

188cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

12.7

5star

HB

5.7

4star

M

6.3

5star

T

1.5

3star

MG

365.0

5star

D

19.4

4star

K

14.3

5star

HB

5.1

3star

M

5.9

5star

T

1.0

2star

MG

437.4

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

173.8

3star

as captain already looks silly. Loves a finger point, loves playing without an opponent, loves saying it’s not my job I’m the star down here. Who is going to teach these kids accountability?

 

[BloodySwan]

Conceding 124 points to an Essendon forward line missing Wright and Stringer, when defence is supposed to be your most promising area of the rebuild, is extremely concerning.

Appointing James Sicily as captain already looks silly. Loves a finger point, loves playing without an opponent, loves saying it’s not my job I’m the star down here. Who is going to teach these kids accountability?

I think trading out experience was a mistake. Would have been better off keeping Mitchell and O'Meara to show the others a strong work ethic.

There was a reason Fagan brought Hodge to the Lions and it was to show them how to act a professional unit. Wingard, Sicily and Breust might not be enough to show them how to develop

 

[Guardian Hawk]

And in round 1 2002 you got beaten by Melbourne, then three years later you got smashed in round 1. Some very optimistic posting happening in this thread.....

I don't think the sentiment you have quoted is all that optimistic. It was not suggested Hawthorn would win a flag within 3 years again. Rather, it seemed designed to highlight that the result of a Round 1 clash (in the middle of a rebuild) is not a good indication on the future success of that rebuild and whether we can win flags or not.

The possibility of whether Hawthorn can win a flag with any of its current list has little to no correlation to the results of last weekend's match. I'm sure it's fun to troll otherwise at our lowest point though I'm sure there'd be Hawthorn supporters doing the same if it were Geelong.