How will the 2016 Federal Election pan out?

[madmug]

I agree with the general sentiment of it being closer than expected. People don't mind Turnbull, but there aren't just question marks about most of his team - there is damning evidence of their incompetence.

If Malcolm responds to that and moves all the Abbott nuts out he will both have an inexperienced team and a bunch of angry Abbott ants undermining him. I suspect that's why he's gone so quiet. It'll be a budget followed by an election and he needs to shut up now so people aren't sick of his waffle in 6mths time.

It won't be hard for Labor to point out their fierce critics are the same people who backed Abbott - i.e. They were people who didn't know what they were talking about. On the angry internet you'll find people hating on Plibersek, Wong, etc. but in hindsight they can very easily look measured and experienced relative to a much-changed LNP. I see it being all about Shorten and how he presents himself, but I'm (eternally) hopeful that it will be about policy and both sides appear to be lining up to offer a proper policy portfolio for the election. In theory, that means Australia should win.

The days of elections being fought over policy are long gone.

The mass media arent interested in policy, neither are many of the punters, who'd rather watch the footy or days of our lives on TV.

Its all presidential & negativity now days.

The idea is to look good, smile, ignore the facts, except the ones you make up yourself. Deny or ignore everything else. Its all about attacking the opposition. Make things up, lie, tell the public the other side will eat babies & will rape your sister if you vote for them The 'other mob.' will destroy life & the country as we know it.

This is actually the fact for both sides. The will eat babies & rape your sister!

 

[04 Durif]

I don't really care which party wins. I would just reach out to the good people of Indi to keep Sophie Mirabella out the federal parliament.
I also look forward to hearing the words hustings and bellwether

 

[pazza]

I don't really care which party wins. I would just reach out to the good people of Indi to keep Sophie Mirabella out the federal parliament.
I also look forward to hearing the words hustings and bellwether

The feeling from up there is that Mirabella is almost persona not gratia.

 

[Giants FC]

I'll tip an election date of 3rd September, the weekend off before the finals.
Turnbull-lead Coalition to be re-elected with a reduced majority, but still a majority in the lower house. But plenty more minor parties in the Senate to make getting legislation through after July 2017 even tougher.

 

[Jascave]

When I'm watching election night coverage, I'm confused about the number of 'scoreboards' used by the TV networks to count the seats.

For example:

NINE: ALP 34 LIB 45 NAT 8 OTH: 4
ABC: ALP 35 LIB 46 NAT 7 OTH: 5
SKY: ALP 33 LIB: 43 NAT 7 OTH: 4
SEVEN: ALP 32 LIB: 44 NAT 7 OTH 4

So, which TV channel would have the 'official' count?

 

[The Punter]

No one does - they're taking the results as reported to the AEC at that stage, comparing them to like-for-like results in the last election, and making projections about the likely end-results. These numbers are educated predictions.

 

[04 Durif]

The feeling from up there is that Mirabella is almost persona not gratia.

She is that. The Nats are running a candidate as well so preferences from them could play a big role.
Gee she is a horrendous person

 

[pjcrows]

When I'm watching election night coverage, I'm confused about the number of 'scoreboards' used by the TV networks to count the seats.

For example:

NINE: ALP 34 LIB 45 NAT 8 OTH: 4
ABC: ALP 35 LIB 46 NAT 7 OTH: 5
SKY: ALP 33 LIB: 43 NAT 7 OTH: 4
SEVEN: ALP 32 LIB: 44 NAT 7 OTH 4

So, which TV channel would have the 'official' count?

You're preparing yourself early!

 

[Crawb]

NXT might grab a SA lower house seat along with their likely upper house spot with a concentrated effort and some luck. But they won't grab a substantial amount.

Whispers that the Liberals under Turnbull would preference the Greens over Labor. This means they'd likely claim a seat like Batman should this happen. They'd also go close in Wills, Sydney and Grayndler.

But ultimately much won't change, the polls now suggest a result slightly worse than 2013 for Labor, they might narrow for an election but only marginally. It'll be a similar result to 2013 really give or take a few seats.

 

[Maggie5]

NXT might grab a SA lower house seat along with their likely upper house spot with a concentrated effort and some luck. But they won't grab a substantial amount.

Whispers that the Liberals under Turnbull would preference the Greens over Labor. This means they'd likely claim a seat like Batman should this happen. They'd also go close in Wills, Sydney and Grayndler.

But ultimately much won't change, the polls now suggest a result slightly worse than 2013 for Labor, they might narrow for an election but only marginally. It'll be a similar result to 2013 really give or take a few seats.

No, not Wills, huge Labor seat sadly.

 

[Crawb]

No, not Wills, huge Labor seat sadly.

Historically yes, but they have been prepared to back a non Labor candidate before. Kelvin is also retiring too who has a decent personal vote. 65-35 ALP-GRE at the last election with LIB preferences going to the ALP. It's a real 50-50 if GRE get LIB preferences, but if they don't it'll be a safe Labor seat again.

 

[rodney hoo]

NXT might grab a SA lower house seat along with their likely upper house spot with a concentrated effort and some luck. But they won't grab a substantial amount.

Whispers that the Liberals under Turnbull would preference the Greens over Labor. This means they'd likely claim a seat like Batman should this happen. They'd also go close in Wills, Sydney and Grayndler.

But ultimately much won't change, the polls now suggest a result slightly worse than 2013 for Labor, they might narrow for an election but only marginally. It'll be a similar result to 2013 really give or take a few seats.

I believe what you say is true, but find it disappointing that Gillard actually ran a good government and got pillaged and the coalition have been horrendous and will win easy.

 

[Maggie5]

Historically yes, but they have been prepared to back a non Labor candidate before. Kelvin is also retiring too who has a decent personal vote. 65-35 ALP-GRE at the last election with LIB preferences going to the ALP. It's a real 50-50 if GRE get LIB preferences, but if they don't it'll be a safe Labor seat again.

Absolutely no way. I have been living here for many, many years and only successful high profile candidate has been Phil Cleary. Extremely well known in the area.
Kelvin is not that popular so voting has been on party lines.
Greens will get closer but Libs no chance.

 

[Jascave]

If Labor unexpectedly wins the federal election, what chance of a Coalition split-in other words, the Liberals and Nationals going their seperate ways like in 1987, the time of the 'Joh for PM' debacle?



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[pjcrows]

If Labor unexpectedly wins the federal election, what chance of a Coalition split-in other words, the Liberals and Nationals going their seperate ways like in 1987, the time of the 'Joh for PM' debacle?



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Labor won't win the next election.

 

[Dry Rot]

Gillard actually ran a good government

You live in a strange parallel universe.

 

[Gough]

You think this government has been an improvement on the previous one?

 

[Gough]

If Labor unexpectedly wins the federal election, what chance of a Coalition split-in other words, the Liberals and Nationals going their seperate ways like in 1987, the time of the 'Joh for PM' debacle?



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Don't have the balls, and I'm becoming convinced Barnaby Joyce is a Liberal Party mole in the National's Party room.

 

[Dry Rot]

You think this government has been an improvement on the previous one?

They've both been shithouse. Bit like arguing about whether Carlton or Essendon will be the better team this year.

And FWIW, I'm not full of enthusiasm about Turnbull like the rest of the country either.

 

[Gough]

Is it a good view from that fence you forever sit on? Must be easy to rain s**t on everyone, and everything when you stand for nothing yourself.

 

[pazza]

If Labor unexpectedly wins the federal election, what chance of a Coalition split-in other words, the Liberals and Nationals going their seperate ways like in 1987, the time of the 'Joh for PM' debacle?



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I think the split talk has been simmering for quite some time.

The latest case with MacFarlane is an illustration of the simmering tensions, as was the WA Nationals stuff of a few years ago.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

The days of elections being fought over policy are long gone.

The mass media arent interested in policy, neither are many of the punters, who'd rather watch the footy or days of our lives on TV.

Its all presidential & negativity now days.

The idea is to look good, smile, ignore the facts, except the ones you make up yourself. Deny or ignore everything else. Its all about attacking the opposition. Make things up, lie, tell the public the other side will eat babies & will rape your sister if you vote for them The 'other mob.' will destroy life & the country as we know it.

This is actually the fact for both sides. The will eat babies & rape your sister!

The mass media have cut back their actual journalists to the point where they only have enough people to cover politics, not policy. So all we get are polls and analysis of polls, in place of analysis on policy. To keep it simple, only the two major parties get coverage (even that limited to stunts and soundbites), with a laugh at the Greens or a minor every now and then.
Basically, we have an electoral system that allows for actual representation; but a populace and a media who see it as a football match with only two teams and Newspoll are the scoreboard.

 

[Jascave]

I think the split talk has been simmering for quite some time.

The latest case with MacFarlane is an illustration of the simmering tensions, as was the WA Nationals stuff of a few years ago.

In fact, if Labor does win the election, prepare for an all-out war between the Liberals and the Nationals, with both going their separate ways, and Malcolm Turnbull's hold on the leadership hanging by a fingernail with the real prospect of a leadership challenge involving one T.Abbott.


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[Dry Rot]

Is it a good view from that fence you forever sit on?

I don't sit on a fence, my views are clear enough. Sounds like you are a simple binary thinker, i.e. that you must support one or the other.

Must be easy to rain s**t on everyone

It is, given the s**t govts of Rudd, Gillard, Rudd and Abbott we have had recently.

Not much to praise amongst that dung heap, is there?

when you stand for nothing yourself.

What do you base that on? I've made my views clear. I can't help it if we've had utterly shitful govts for years now.

 

[Play by Numbers]

So everything on the table did simply mean a GST increase. Tricky Turnbull.

They killed the carbon tax because it was regressive, yet pick something that will thumpnthe average household and drive us into recession. So how is he different than Abbott outside of defence.