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Vic How would you rate Daniel Andrews' performance as Victorian Premier? - Part 5

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You're out east, right?

Was just observing inner north yesterday - e.g. Princes Park - fewer people overall but still picnics and gatherings, which got moved on quickly last year.
Wife and I are taking our boys out shortly. Hoping too see most people obeying the public health orders. For the record I'm in the outer SE.
 
east - Glen Iris way

they have been around, but pretty low key. As mentioned, the change in compliance has been noticeable, so they havent had much to do (from what ive seen)


The only * i'll add is i heard half a dozen sirens last night. so looks like they are enforcing the 9pm rule pretty hard

I’m not far from you mate. I ordered dinner which I picked up at 8pm and the roads were dead.
 
So all of Regional Victoria is now subject to the hard lockdown because of the 'Shepparton cluster'. There seems to be one confirmed case in Shepparton, and an additional 16 cases using rapid PCR testing.

Rapid antigen tests have been shown to be less reliable and prone to false positives. The Royal College of Pathologists Australasia has argued rapid antigen tests aren't a good fit for countries where the prevalence of COVID-19 is low.

But yeah let's lock up the whole state. Shepparton is 2 and a half hours drive from Geelong, 5 hours from Warrnambool, 6 hours from Lakes Entrance, 9 hours to Mildura.
 
So all of Regional Victoria is now subject to the hard lockdown because of the 'Shepparton cluster'. There seems to be one confirmed case in Shepparton, and an additional 16 cases using rapid PCR testing.

Rapid antigen tests have been shown to be less reliable and prone to false positives. The Royal College of Pathologists Australasia has argued rapid antigen tests aren't a good fit for countries where the prevalence of COVID-19 is low.

But yeah let's lock up the whole state. Shepparton is 2 and a half hours drive from Geelong, 5 hours from Warrnambool, 6 hours from Lakes Entrance, 9 hours to Mildura.
4 days ago Shepp was a few hours from infected Melbourne
 

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So all of Regional Victoria is now subject to the hard lockdown because of the 'Shepparton cluster'. There seems to be one confirmed case in Shepparton, and an additional 16 cases using rapid PCR testing.

Rapid antigen tests have been shown to be less reliable and prone to false positives. The Royal College of Pathologists Australasia has argued rapid antigen tests aren't a good fit for countries where the prevalence of COVID-19 is low.

But yeah let's lock up the whole state. Shepparton is 2 and a half hours drive from Geelong, 5 hours from Warrnambool, 6 hours from Lakes Entrance, 9 hours to Mildura.
What testing method are we shifting to that can be quickly deployed and fast turn around for results?

Here is a pretty good read on the pros and cons for different tests

Turns out false negatives are more of a concern than false positives that the other testing methods are more prone to

 
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So all of Regional Victoria is now subject to the hard lockdown because of the 'Shepparton cluster'. There seems to be one confirmed case in Shepparton, and an additional 16 cases using rapid PCR testing.

Rapid antigen tests have been shown to be less reliable and prone to false positives. The Royal College of Pathologists Australasia has argued rapid antigen tests aren't a good fit for countries where the prevalence of COVID-19 is low.

But yeah let's lock up the whole state. Shepparton is 2 and a half hours drive from Geelong, 5 hours from Warrnambool, 6 hours from Lakes Entrance, 9 hours to Mildura.

Ignorant post from an ignorant twit.
 
So all of Regional Victoria is now subject to the hard lockdown because of the 'Shepparton cluster'. There seems to be one confirmed case in Shepparton, and an additional 16 cases using rapid PCR testing.

Rapid antigen tests have been shown to be less reliable and prone to false positives. The Royal College of Pathologists Australasia has argued rapid antigen tests aren't a good fit for countries where the prevalence of COVID-19 is low.

But yeah let's lock up the whole state. Shepparton is 2 and a half hours drive from Geelong, 5 hours from Warrnambool, 6 hours from Lakes Entrance, 9 hours to Mildura.
believe that one of the shepparton people went to Bendigo, so need to pause movements for a short while until picture is clearer IMO
- although the bendigo site exposure is 13/8/21, so would think that there should be cases by now if it was going to happen

then there is the school of thought that sometimes differential rules lead to resentments by the locked up and then to non compliance (a criticism in the gladys thread)
 
OK, natural immunity is irrelevant. 🙄 Let's not open up until we have 100% triple vaxxed.

link to where i said 100% triple vaxxed

im just not in the mood for "get out in the sun, vitamin D and natural immunity is all we need". That shit made me puke in 2020, i dont need it now
 
What testing method are we shifting to that can be quickly deployed and fast turn around for results?

I think he could be referring to the rapid antigen test

Qld company’s 15-min rapid Covid-19 test takes fight to Europe - Ministerial Media Statements

I don't know much about this test (in terms of false +ve or negatives)
But other countries do use rapid testing as a first line before PCR testing for those detected as positive for the asymptomatic
Not sure how much they cost per kit
 
I think he could be referring to the rapid antigen test

Qld company’s 15-min rapid Covid-19 test takes fight to Europe - Ministerial Media Statements

I don't know much about this test (in terms of false +ve or negatives)
But other countries do use rapid testing as a first line before PCR testing for those detected as positive for the asymptomatic
Not sure how much they cost per kit
I updated my post after giving this a read
Great simple rundown of the pros and cons of the different testing methods

None are perfect but the general consensus is that a false positive is “better” than a false negative that could result in people thinking they don’t have the virus continuing to spread it

Plus for the Shep example I find it highly unlikely that all 21 of the shep positives are false positives
 

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Of the 65 local cases, 55 are linked to current outbreaks and 10 are under investigation.
16 of today's 65 local cases were announced yesterday, linked to the Shepparton area.
 
so what do you do when you walk your dog/s? look at the ground only
Watch my dog and the scenery, in my area. Not sure about every other parks, trails, cafes traffic moments in Melbourne. U seem to have it covered.
 
Of the 65 local cases, 55 are linked to current outbreaks and 10 are under investigation.
16 of today's 65 local cases were announced yesterday, linked to the Shepparton area.
We need the iso status.
 
I think he could be referring to the rapid antigen test

Qld company’s 15-min rapid Covid-19 test takes fight to Europe - Ministerial Media Statements

I don't know much about this test (in terms of false +ve or negatives)
But other countries do use rapid testing as a first line before PCR testing for those detected as positive for the asymptomatic
Not sure how much they cost per kit

The standard PCR test is fairly reliable when the prevalence of COVID-19 is low - as is the situation in Australia. At high prevalence it picks up the noise of bits and pieces of inactive virus molecules.

As The Royal College of Pathologists Australasia has argued, rapid antigen tests aren't a good fit for countries where the prevalence of COVID-19 is low - because it results in false positives.

There appears to be one confirmed case by standard PCR in Shepparton. Then you get the usual scare everyone but unconfirmed skerrick of information from Andrews to justify further lockdowns.

There is a significant risk out of both the cases we know about in Shepparton, and what we don't yet have confirmed but suspect has happened in Shepparton and beyond.​
 
BLM was 15 months ago

I don't see how that is relevant to what today was about
"They did a dumb thing ages ago so it justifies our even dumber thing now!"

Bunch of self-entitled, dim-witted **** sticks
 

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link to where i said 100% triple vaxxed

im just not in the mood for "get out in the sun, vitamin D and natural immunity is all we need". That sh*t made me puke in 2020, i dont need it now
Never said it's all we need. It's hugely important though considering at least 5 million people aren't going to be vaxxed when we open up.

I’m not far from you mate. I ordered dinner which I picked up at 8pm and the roads were dead.
State Park near me, very busy yesterday, including loads of cars. Local school where the kids and I kick the footy, dead quiet compared to 2 weeks ago. Mask compliance, less than this time last year. So, a mixed bag.
 
Our population is more dense. Especially Melbourne compared to Brisbane. We are on top of each other here.
We are more multicultural here, in turn bigger family groups, more language barriers, more ethnic groups that don't take it seriously.
Delta hit our schools, kids don't wear masks, definitely wouldn't socially distance.
Also add close enough to a year of lockdown fatigue to the mix. The longer this goes, the less compliance we'll get. It's natural.
 
The standard PCR test is fairly reliable when the prevalence of COVID-19 is low - as is the situation in Australia. At high prevalence it picks up the noise of bits and pieces of inactive virus molecules.

As The Royal College of Pathologists Australasia has argued, rapid antigen tests aren't a good fit for countries where the prevalence of COVID-19 is low - because it results in false positives.

There appears to be one confirmed case by standard PCR in Shepparton. Then you get the usual scare everyone but unconfirmed skerrick of information from Andrews to justify further lockdowns.

There is a significant risk out of both the cases we know about in Shepparton, and what we don't yet have confirmed but suspect has happened in Shepparton and beyond.​

would the delay in getting PCR results out of shepparton be partly due to regional availability of PCR testing?
 
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