Scarlett Fever
Senior List
Firstly I have never seen most of these young kids play a game. But there seems to be a consensus forming on Big Footy that there is a top 7 and Geelong would have the easiest job in the draft. That would be sit back and pick the one that hasn't already been called out.
For what it is worth the consensus top 7 on big footy seems to be:
Gibbs, Leuenberger, Gumbleton, Hansen, Thorpe, Sellar and Selwood.
However, it is never as simple as it seems. The media seems to have a few extra names rated highly. For example a recent article mentioned Armitage as a potential top pick and didn't mention Thorpe. Very few Big footy draft watchers see as much of Armitage as they have Thorpe who has been running around in the VFL. The recruiters will see things differently again and there is always a surprise or 2 in the top 10.
The important things to note imo are:
1) Any team with a top 10 pick will base their decision almost entirely on who they think will be the best footballer.
2) If a club rates 2 or more players equal they will almost certainly go the tall option. Clubs have lamented the lack of quality talls in recent years and this year if they have the chance they will take a tall.
3) Club needs get more attention later in the draft. Talk that Essendon will replace Fletcher with Hansen and Collingwood will take Riewoldt to replace Tarrant is just rubbish. They will go best available. Carlton will only take Leuenberger if they think he is the best available not because they need a ruckman.
4) The go home factor will not even rate a thought with a top 10 pick.
5) Clubs may put up smoke screens. Sellar did not interview well at Port apparently. No one seems to know who said this. Clarkson rates Sellar highly. All these comments mean absolutely nothing and give no indication of who a club might take.
6) Clubs look past injuries because they ghave watched these kids for 2-3 years and not just the last 6 months. If Thorpe and Collard have op now then they are likely to be more progressed with the stabilisation exercises and are therefore less likely to get it later. Selwood didn't have the full reco on his knee so still has all his 9 lives in tact (unlike Muston from last year).
So who will end up at Geelong with our first pick? The Cats like everyone else will go best available. I would be surprised if any of Gibbs, Leuenberger, Gumbleton and Hansen get through to our pick. That leaves Thorpe, Sellar and Selwood. Sellar and Selwood match our current strengths given that we already are getting Hawkins who may still end up a ruck/forward if he keeps growing. The Cats will look closely at these 3 as they will all seem to offer a lot in terms of leadership as well.
I would be surprised if we went for Jetta. This is purely a gut feel based on his size but his WA team mate Collard is a typical Stephen Wells selection. He has all the qualities that Wells likes, running ability and height (for a midfielder) but also has had the magic word applied to him. That word is poise..the thing that seperates a great footballer from a good footballer. Furthermore he played one cracking game picking up 5 goals at senior level before going down with op. Wells has shown a philosophy in the past to pick guys that have performed at an extremely high standard for a short period of time believing the club can get them back to and beyond that level.
Armitage and Proud tick all the right boxes but it is never that simple. The unique attributes of Clinton Benjamin may appeal, the speed of Nathan Brown might wow us and so might Daniel Connors kicking ability. Thompson has been desperate to find a lead up the ground mobile forward type for years. How else did Charlie get to 49 games. So maybe he likes the look of Riewoldt..
I look forward to the draft and have not a clue or an opinion as to who will end up at the cattery. Lets hope the power of foresight will be with Stephen Wells on the 25th November.
For what it is worth the consensus top 7 on big footy seems to be:
Gibbs, Leuenberger, Gumbleton, Hansen, Thorpe, Sellar and Selwood.
However, it is never as simple as it seems. The media seems to have a few extra names rated highly. For example a recent article mentioned Armitage as a potential top pick and didn't mention Thorpe. Very few Big footy draft watchers see as much of Armitage as they have Thorpe who has been running around in the VFL. The recruiters will see things differently again and there is always a surprise or 2 in the top 10.
The important things to note imo are:
1) Any team with a top 10 pick will base their decision almost entirely on who they think will be the best footballer.
2) If a club rates 2 or more players equal they will almost certainly go the tall option. Clubs have lamented the lack of quality talls in recent years and this year if they have the chance they will take a tall.
3) Club needs get more attention later in the draft. Talk that Essendon will replace Fletcher with Hansen and Collingwood will take Riewoldt to replace Tarrant is just rubbish. They will go best available. Carlton will only take Leuenberger if they think he is the best available not because they need a ruckman.
4) The go home factor will not even rate a thought with a top 10 pick.
5) Clubs may put up smoke screens. Sellar did not interview well at Port apparently. No one seems to know who said this. Clarkson rates Sellar highly. All these comments mean absolutely nothing and give no indication of who a club might take.
6) Clubs look past injuries because they ghave watched these kids for 2-3 years and not just the last 6 months. If Thorpe and Collard have op now then they are likely to be more progressed with the stabilisation exercises and are therefore less likely to get it later. Selwood didn't have the full reco on his knee so still has all his 9 lives in tact (unlike Muston from last year).
So who will end up at Geelong with our first pick? The Cats like everyone else will go best available. I would be surprised if any of Gibbs, Leuenberger, Gumbleton and Hansen get through to our pick. That leaves Thorpe, Sellar and Selwood. Sellar and Selwood match our current strengths given that we already are getting Hawkins who may still end up a ruck/forward if he keeps growing. The Cats will look closely at these 3 as they will all seem to offer a lot in terms of leadership as well.
I would be surprised if we went for Jetta. This is purely a gut feel based on his size but his WA team mate Collard is a typical Stephen Wells selection. He has all the qualities that Wells likes, running ability and height (for a midfielder) but also has had the magic word applied to him. That word is poise..the thing that seperates a great footballer from a good footballer. Furthermore he played one cracking game picking up 5 goals at senior level before going down with op. Wells has shown a philosophy in the past to pick guys that have performed at an extremely high standard for a short period of time believing the club can get them back to and beyond that level.
Armitage and Proud tick all the right boxes but it is never that simple. The unique attributes of Clinton Benjamin may appeal, the speed of Nathan Brown might wow us and so might Daniel Connors kicking ability. Thompson has been desperate to find a lead up the ground mobile forward type for years. How else did Charlie get to 49 games. So maybe he likes the look of Riewoldt..
I look forward to the draft and have not a clue or an opinion as to who will end up at the cattery. Lets hope the power of foresight will be with Stephen Wells on the 25th November.
