Josh Carr's Ruthless Port Adelaide

[Tibbs]

I find it strange most of the “ experts “ are forecasting us as bottom 4 , I see us 6-10 , with an easyish draw as long as the injury gods are half fair I think we”ll go alright

You are away with the fairies!

Signed: 240volt

 

[PortAdelFC1997]

I find it strange most of the “ experts “ are forecasting us as bottom 4 , I see us 6-10 , with an easyish draw as long as the injury gods are half fair I think we”ll go alright

The same "experts" will then say Port only finished between 6-10 because of their easy draw despite them penciling in that Port will finish in the bottom four with that easy draw.

You can't have it both ways.

 

[Willsy10]

We don’t have a coach who can turn pickle juice into wine anymore

 

[Scholz Supremacy]

I'd love to know the thought process of people who think we could be worse next year.

How?

In 2025 we were injury ravaged and had the cue in the rack by about round 8, with a coach who had stopped even pretending to give a shit.

2025 was 2012-ish. We may have won 3 and a half more games and finished one ladder position higher in 2025 than we did in 2012, but at least in 2012 we lost 0 games by 75+ points! In 2025 we lost 5 games by 75+.

Next year, we only have the very low bar of 2025 to improve on.

 

[Scholz Supremacy]

Hinkley survived 13 years all because of how bad we were in 2012, so it’ll definitely be interesting to see how much slack Josh Carr

Josh Carr

Age

46

Ht

179cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.8

4star

K

10.6

4star

HB

7.2

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.3

5star

CL

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

0.8

3star

gets cut because of how bad we were in 2025.

 

[SC_Power]

The start is the crucial. The first five games are all winnable.

This preseason is really important and will play a big part in how we start the year.

Ken won his first 5 as well in 2013

just sayin.

 

[MrChow]

2025 was 2012-ish. We may have won 3 and a half more games and finished one ladder position higher in 2025 than we did in 2012, but at least in 2012 we lost 0 games by 75+ points! In 2025 we lost 5 games by 75+.

Next year, we only have the very low bar of 2025 to improve on.

In 2012, you could flood and play someone behind the ball and also GC and GWS had only just joined then, so effectively we finished 14/16. I’m sure with the new rules we would have had some 75+ losses.

Had some injuries in 2012, but we also finished 13, 10, 10, 16 - the 4 years prior. I daresay the 2025 list is in much better shape, the young core has finals experience, and the club is much more stable financially.

I’d think the current players and club mentality in 2012 going on 2013 was a ‘nothing to lose’ mentality. However, I reckon the 2025 side going into 2026 has a much higher expectation.

 

[ctpower]

Ken won his first 5 as well in 2013

just sayin.

Let’s hope for all our sakes Carr does better

 

[MrChow]

One obvious reason that people could point to is that we haven't done anything to improve the state of our list significantly. We have picked up a number of depth and fringe players to pad out our list but they don't really improve our best 23.

We also have had a significant amount of change through the club. It may take players time to gel to new roles and a new gameplan, or it may not work at all. That is a significant unknown variable compared to the relatively consistent home and away team that we were under Hinkley.

Do I personally believe that we will be worse than last year? No I dont, but that is largely due to the improvement of personnel available in the forward line this year.

A few variables not going our way and it certainly could be a 10th-16th kind of season where we tread water.

Since our Top 4 finish. Really our list had just swapped:

• a banged up Dixon for Luko
• Boak for Richards
• Rioli for Durdin
• Houston for …. losing Rozee from the midfield.
• Losing head knock Marshall.

You’d say this is a decent loss, but the improvement comes from the growth of players not at their prime.

Last year Georgi, and maybe Esava emerged.

This year, I think there is and will be a positive balance in growth/improvement of younger players and their leadership, including Butters, Rozee, Bergman, JHF, Jones, Burgoyne, Sinn, Ramm, Whitlock, Berry and Moraes over the potential decliners - Wines, Allir, DBJ.

Our depth has definitely improved in all positions.

The greatest variable for us is a new coach. We all have no idea if the Josh Carr style will work. Dean Cox took over a good list/club at Sydney but had a bad injury year - they will be back this year. Kingsley/GWS had a good first year, if our injuries are out of the way, there is no reason we don’t have a similar crack at it.

Lastly, how much has the competition improved? The forward press game style is pretty much dead with the new rules, so Hinkleys and Voss’s game plans are dead (Brisbane are the only ones who can pull it off still, as their list is 20% better than every other side). Hawks, Geelong, Collingwood, GWS (and even the Cows) have shown bruise free transition footy is the future (for the moment). Hawks/Cows/Geelong/Collingwood all have fairly average midfields.

New rules, like the out of bounds, quicker ruck contests are gonna mean less rest on field and more endurance and quicker plays. Again suiting transition sides.

I’ll be curious whether we actually play JHF 50% forward, and Rozee at HB again. Geelong were playing quick endurance no name players in the midfield tagging oppo mids, and then cooked teams with outside runners like Miers and Bailey Smith and Danger forward, with Cameron running people up the ground.

Anyway, will be interesting which way Josh Carr goes - the less Hinkley game plan - the better for the future. The more runners and good kickers, the better.

 

[KanesBurner]

I'd love to know the thought process of people who think we could be worse next year.

How?

In 2025 we were injury ravaged and had the cue in the rack by about round 8, with a coach who had stopped even pretending to give a shit.

It’s something I can’t get my head around either. People acting like things will get worse.

Last year was worse case scenario. 2nd hardest fixture (behind Brisbane), insane injuries (Timmy G said we had 19 players go in for surgery during the season) and a dead man walking coach with the season over early.

Next year we have possibly the easiest draw I can ever remember Port having, hopefully just league standard injuries and a much improved coaching panel.

I obviously dont think we are flag material but I’d be surprised if we weren’t fighting it out for the last few spots of the finals.

 

[MrChow]

It’s something I can’t get my head around either. People acting like things will get worse.

Last year was worse case scenario. 2nd hardest fixture (behind Brisbane), insane injuries (Timmy G said we had 19 players go in for surgery during the season) and a dead man walking coach with the season over early.

Next year we have possibly the easiest draw I can ever remember Port having, hopefully just league standard injuries and a much improved coaching panel.

I obviously dont think we are flag material but I’d be surprised if we weren’t fighting it out for the last few spots of the finals.

On average almost 3 sides get in the Top 8, who didn’t make it the year before. Now that it is wildcard round, I feel like it’s almost easier to make finals then miss.

Our list is actually not that dissimilar to Hawthorns age wise - minus the travel advantages/afl reserves. They are top 4 flag favourites, with Bris, GC, and Geelong. Sydney is 5th.

It’s pretty realistic that we ain’t winning the flag though. Stats suggest you have to play finals the year before to win, you need to finish Top 4, and you have to have some extra benefit from the AFL - ie Northern academies, priority picks, COLA, home MCG, merger, initial list concessions etc.

As we don’t meet 2 of these 3 key stats already and probably 3 - it’s no chance to win a flag.

I’d go as much to say, the last point is a necessity (having some advantage), and Ken aside, it makes sense we didn’t win a flag over the past 10 years, and we probably won’t for the next 10 years.

West Coast will win one before us/Adelaide and Fremantle. You watch them load up on priority picks.

I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the Top 4 actually is Bris, GC, GWS and Sydney this year. And in some ways I hope it is, as I hate AFL house.

 

[240volt]

On average almost 3 sides get in the Top 8, who didn’t make it the year before. Now that it is wildcard round, I feel like it’s almost easier to make finals then miss.

Our list is actually not that dissimilar to Hawthorns age wise - minus the travel advantages/afl reserves. They are top 4 flag favourites, with Bris, GC, and Geelong. Sydney is 5th.

It’s pretty realistic that we ain’t winning the flag though. Stats suggest you have to play finals the year before to win, you need to finish Top 4, and you have to have some extra benefit from the AFL - ie Northern academies, priority picks, COLA, home MCG, merger, initial list concessions etc.

As we don’t meet 2 of these 3 key stats already and probably 3 - it’s no chance to win a flag.

I’d go as much to say, the last point is a necessity (having some advantage), and Ken aside, it makes sense we didn’t win a flag over the past 10 years, and we probably won’t for the next 10 years.

West Coast will win one before us/Adelaide and Fremantle. You watch them load up on priority picks.

I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the Top 4 actually is Bris, GC, GWS and Sydney this year. And in some ways I hope it is, as I hate AFL house.

You post is very realistic, I’d say the only thing is with the picks we will have over the next couple of years could fast track our way back to being a serious contender fast if we use them well.
With the likelihood of Butters going we should be getting some good picks.
The improved coaching will help but the list itself is more important.
I can see us really doing something in the next 4-5 years.
I believe that’s about our best position realistically.

 

[MrChow]

You post is very realistic, I’d say the only thing is with the picks we will have over the next couple of years could fast track our way back to being a serious contender fast if we use them well.
With the likelihood of Butters going we should be getting some good picks.
The improved coaching will help but the list itself is more important.
I can see us really doing something in the next 4-5 years.
I believe that’s about our best position realistically.

I’m not sure a model of trading out stars is a premiership model. But we have consistently done it, in hope of building a better list

• Wingard/Polec lead to Rozee/Duursma (BZT)
• Houston to Berry/Whitlock/Moraes and Richards

It’s gonna require some good trading to hopefully get all we want, with the complexity of Tassie

 

[Steve Dore]

.... Now that it is wildcard round, I feel like it’s almost easier to make finals then miss.

....

Statistically it is easier to make finals than miss because the AFL have made Wildcard Round part of the finals. Ten of eighteen teams will play finals in 2026, 56%.