Autopsy Ladder vs final top 8

philohk

on holiday by mistake
Jun 18, 2008
1,288
732
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I had a bit of time today, so decided to nerd out and create a ladder based on results vs the final top 8. As teams haven't all played the same number of matches vs the finalists, I've sorted it by win percentage.

734619


A couple of observations:
- The differing number of games played even among last year's top 6 (e.g. West Coast 8, Hawthorn 12) probably shows that weighting the fixture is not very useful, as team quality fluctuates significantly from year to year
- As with the season overall, Geelong is the only team to have a very strong percentage - here, most is due to the Richmond and West Coast games
- Brisbane had two poor early games - their recent record is better, and probably a better pointer to their finals form
- A few of Richmond's results are from when their injury crisis was deepest
- The Bulldogs' record suggests they'll be competitive
- Essendon's record is the poorest of the finalists, with GWS only slightly better
- As for my team, it's both satisfying and a bit frustrating to see we've been competitive. A couple of those close losses...
- Adelaide's record suggests they wouldn't have done well if they'd made it
- Melbourne is the only side not to have beaten any of the finalists

EDIT: updated to fix a couple of mistakes people pointed out. This pushes Freo up surprisingly high and Essendon even lower - Freo is the only non-finalist inside the 'eight' and Essendon the only finalist outside.
 
Last edited:

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MagicGnome97

Senior List
Sep 6, 2018
228
154
AFL Club
Collingwood
Encouraging to see that we have a good record against the other top 8 teams. I suppose that bodes well for us, especially considering that we are gonna be getting some HUGE INS in De Goey, Stephenson and Sidebottom back soon (also Aish) provided nothing goes wrong (touch wood).
 

MagicGnome97

Senior List
Sep 6, 2018
228
154
AFL Club
Collingwood
Hawks and pies with clearly the hardest draws - equal hardest I'd say, considering hawks technically play an extra top 8 side at least once not being a top 8 side themselves.
 

hk89

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 12, 2009
6,921
8,032
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I had a bit of time today, so decided to nerd out and create a ladder based on results vs the final top 8. As teams haven't all played the same number of matches vs the finalists, I've sorted it by win percentage.
You sure those numbers are right? Who were Essendon's 3 wins against?
 

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philohk

on holiday by mistake
Jun 18, 2008
1,288
732
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Hawthorn
You sure those numbers are right? Who were Essendon's 3 wins against?
I don’t think they are right for the Dockers. Played Eagles, Bullies and Essendon twice. So 11 games for 5 wins.
Thanks for the check! I transposed a score from an Essendon game and missed a Dockers one, so Essendon is 2-7, 77.29% and Dockers are 5-6, 85.56%. Will double check and upload a revised version when I get home later.
 

Doggstats

Club Legend
May 21, 2011
1,576
2,889
On the toilet.
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
76ers, LA Angels
I had a bit of time today, so decided to nerd out and create a ladder based on results vs the final top 8. As teams haven't all played the same number of matches vs the finalists, I've sorted it by win percentage.

View attachment 733648

A couple of observations:
- The differing number of games played even among last year's top 6 (e.g. West Coast 8, Hawthorn 12) probably shows that weighting the fixture is not very useful, as team quality fluctuates significantly from year to year
- As with the season overall, Geelong is the only team to have a very strong percentage - here, most is due to the Richmond and West Coast games
- Brisbane had two poor early games - their recent record is better, and probably a better pointer to their finals form
- A few of Richmond's results are from when their injury crisis was deepest
- The Bulldogs' record suggests they'll be competitive
- Essendon's record is the poorest of the finalists, with GWS only slightly better
- As for my team, it's both satisfying and a bit frustrating to see we've been competitive. A couple of those close losses...
- Adelaide's record suggests they wouldn't have done well if they'd made it
- Melbourne is the only side not to have beaten any of the finalists
Shouldn't the Bulldogs be 4th on your ladder? 5/5 > 4/4, as well as having a higher percentage than 4th and 5th??
 

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