Lance Franklin - Approaching Top 10 goalkickers of all time.

[jjsmitty8]

Hey folks, I'm not usually one to start a main board thread, but with Lance Franklin hastily approaching the top 10 goal kickers of all time after his 8 goal haul on the weekend my mate and I were discussing where Buddy sits in terms of all time great players in the league.

I posed the question, do you think he can reach 1000 goals in his career? He's currently 30 years old, and sitting on 809. 9 more goals will put him into outright tenth (pushing Bernie Quinlan with 817 into 11th).

His career average is 3.1 goals a game.

At worst case scenario, allowing room for him to slow down and miss some games, say he plays 20 games a season up to the end of 2019. That allows 13 more this year, and another 40 over the 2018-19 seasons, that makes 53 games (meaning he reaches 300). Now let's say he kicks two goals a game over that period. That's 106 goals and would leave him on 915 (tied 8th with Leigh Matthews).

Best case scenario, he plays another 5 years, maintains his average of 3 goals a game and plays 22 games minimum a year. That means he'll kick another 350+ goals, leaving him in about 4th position.

How do you see it panning out for him?

 

[lamaros]

Gee, what shocking news this is. Come out of nowhere!

 

[rumply]

At around the same point career wise, I was certain Lloydy would get to 1000 & then bang, hammy off the bone & that was basically that.

Buddy might get there but as always, luck also needs to play a big part.

 

[jjsmitty8]

Gee, what shocking news this is. Come out of nowhere!

It's just a discussion, no need to be a tool.

 

[jjsmitty8]

At around the same point career wise, I was certain Lloydy would get to 1000 & then bang, hammy off the bone & that was basically that.

Buddy might get there but as always, luck also needs to play a big part.

Yeah, when I was looking at the overall list I was thinking the exact same thing

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

A poll might be interesting.

I think he'll get to 1000, just not sure if he'll go far beyond that.

 

[jjsmitty8]

A poll might be interesting.

I think he'll get to 1000, just not sure if he'll go far beyond that.

There is a poll...

 

[Percel]

There is a poll...

Its not much of a poll, more like a slender stick if you will.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

There is a poll...

Let's pretend I saw that, and I'm not half asleep after lunch.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I might be wrong but isn't he contracted until 2022 or something?

Will get there easily

 

[Chuckie357]

If he could take a contested mark he might have gotten there this week

 

[The Swert]

On current form, he should. But injuries can come suddenly post 30.

Probably between 1000-1100.

 

[HairyO]

I think he'll get to 1000, just not sure if he'll go far beyond that.

I agree. Cant imagine he will get to 1,100. Though it is possible. 580 with Hawthorn, 520 with the Swans. Waltzes in to their TOC, struggles to find a spot in ours.

 

[Brad Goodman]

Surely he'll get to 1000, but I did say the same about Lloyd...

Difference being though Lloyd was more one-dimensional.

 

[SSSSSS]

Has the talent and the contract on his side.

Unfortunately once you hit post 30 the end can come very very quick.

Will be a battle against himself.

 

[Sttew]

Gee, what shocking news this is. Come out of nowhere!

Why bother with a response like that?

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

If he could take a contested mark he might have gotten there this week

It is one of the biggest fallacies in football that Buddy can't take a contested mark. His contested mark average was 2nd in the AFL in 2014, 8th in 2012 and 14th in 2010 (he has been further down the list in other years). These results are enormous given that his engine/speed dictates that he gets most of his possessions in open space. In one on one situations he is superb.

Even when he starts to lose his lightning speed he will still kick bags of goals playing closer to home later in his career. Will get to 1000 easily and may end up closer to 1200 than people think.

 

[Sttew]

Here's the current top 11

 

[Sttew]

It is one of the biggest fallacies in football that Buddy can't take a contested mark.

There are countless fallacies in AFL perpetuated on this board

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Here's the current top 11

View attachment 368410

I hadn't realised Titus O'Reilly kicked 970 goals

 

[Olian]

I might be wrong but isn't he contracted until 2022 or something?

Will get there easily

Probably extend the contract as well.

He'll get there but may slow down a little given Swans will struggle over the next few years as it plays an inexperienced line up.

 

[The 747]

Deserves to be in the top 10. 1000 is likely, dunno about many more than that though.

 

[Coaster2012]

Tony Lockett 1360 goals. Jesus Christ. Back when the mid's only job was to get it to the forwards.

 

[juss]

About 50 goals a year over the next 4 years, he'd be 34 years old. He can definitely get there, but if he loses his athleticism and distance in his kicking he will struggle. That's his biggest weapon, because he has never been noted as a strong mark.

 

[Rotayjay]

Franklin's 1000th goal would be a great moment for our game. Hope he makes it.