Last Half Of Season

[Scott Tracy]

I think we're guaranteed top 6 at this point. Just don't wanna finish 6th or 5th. I'm happy anywhere in the top 4.
Now Port have beaten Saints I have us having to win 3 out of the 5 to make top four. Only Two if one of those two wins are Port.
We've traditionally had a good last five games of the season under Bevo. 2017 being the only year where we loss 3 of the 5.

2015- 3 of our last 5 (Finals)
2016- 3 of our last 5 (Finals)
2017- 2 of our last 5
2018- 3 of our last 5
2019- 4 of our last 5 (Finals)
2020 4 of our last 5 (Finals)

Hopefully we can keep up that form.
Essendon, Crows and Hawks should all be wins. However I think we will get Port at Marvel and I give us a chance against Melbourne. Especially if Treloar and Martin are back in the side by then.
Anyway let's just take it one week at a time and pray Covid will not have an affect on the Finals.
Go Dogs!

 

[dogwatch]

A few observations over recent weeks heading towards finals

• A fit Gardner is important to our structure. He was playing well enough in the early part of the season and is a better option than either of Cordy or Young. Khamis is just not an option this year
• Young is too inconsistent and and not there in a game sense to risk in finals
• Cordy is beaten too often in one on ones to play a KPD role in finals
• We need speed but not at the expense of cleanliness, ball use and decision making. I have doubts about Richards in this regard.
• Croz looks off the pace this year
• Rule a line through Wallis, Hannan, West, Lipi, Sweet and Shcache in terms of finals
• We should maintain the 3 headed monster in some form especially if/when Martin and Treloar return as our midfield will be at full strength and supply forward should not be an issue
• VDM is important - speed, skill, game sense and aggression
• Wood is important for leadership and direction down back and his intercept marking ability
• I don't think we need 3 talls in defence if we are at full strength in the midfield and Wood is fit and available

Scenario A: Gardner, Wood, Martin, Treloar and VDM fit and available.

B: Williams Keath Duryea

HB: Dale Gardner Wood

C: Trelaor Bont Macrae

HF: Weightman Naughton Hunter

FF: English Bruce JJ

R: Martin Libba Dunkley

I/C: VDM Smith Daniel Garcia

Speed is highlighted in red. I've left Richards out for the reasons outlined above. Haven't considered Marra if Gardner is fit as we can keep Naughts, Bruce and English forward with Timmy 2nd ruck. Garcia/McLean was a tricky one but Garcia is taking his chances. VDM plays if he's fit IMO. This is our best team IMO.


The problem will be if Gardner doesn't get up. Again, I wouldn't go with 3 talls back but would I go with one? I'm not selecting Young or Cordy for finals but is it too much for Wood. It probably is unless we're absolutely dominating the midfield and clearances and our weight of possession is being converted into points and scoreboard pressure. But if that doesn't happen and we've gone with that, what then? Well, I'm thinking we play the break glass in case of emergency move Naughts to CHB card with Marra in to keep the 3 headed beast alive. It's not the ideal but I'm choosing between either having one of Cordy or Young back, or Marra forward. He's young, not fully developed and it's a big ask, but I'm giving Marra and that structure preference (Scenario B) where Gardner is out. I'd risk it. I considered moving Bont to CHF when Timmy plays 2nd ruck. A bit like moving Naughts, it's robbing Peter to pay Paul. If Bont is used that way to keeps Naughts forward then I guess we'd be going with either Cordy or Young.....would be Cordy....but it's not my preference.

Moving Naughts back would no doubt be controversial and of course he's going to be a dominant forward for us for many years. This year, however, if it meant the difference between winning losing, I'd send him back if I had to.


Scenario B: Gardner not fit and available

B: Williams Keath Duryea

HB: Dale Wood Daniel

C: Trelaor Bont Macrae

HF: Weightman Naughton Hunter

FF: English Bruce JJ

R: Martin Libba Dunkley

I/C: VDM Smith JUH Garcia

Agree about Cordy. He’s a warrior but as a foot soldier at best. He might just have a role as a third tall but not as one of our two KPDs. It may just be a coincidence but I think we have yet to win a final with him in defence (unless he played back in some of the earlier finals of 2016).

I regard Naughton in attack as an essential. He’s the catalyst that creates chaos inside 50 and strikes fear into opposition defences. Even when he’s not kicking goals (like yesterday) his mere presence gives opportunities to others like Marra or Bruce or Weightman. Without him there they shut our forwards down too easily. Eg the Swans game.

So I agree Gardner is first choice. Without him it’s tough. Wood will help, is composed, provides leadership and can play tall to some extent.

I still wouldn’t rule out Young but he makes me as nervous as Cordy. Lots of eggs in the Gardner rehab basket.

 

[Next Waiting]

Agree about Cordy. He’s a warrior but as a foot soldier at best. He might just have a role as a third tall but not as one of our two KPDs. It may just be a coincidence but I think we have yet to win a final with him in defence (unless he played back in some of the earlier finals of 2016).

I regard Naughton in attack as an essential. He’s the catalyst that creates chaos inside 50 and strikes fear into opposition defences. Even when he’s not kicking goals (like yesterday) his mere presence gives opportunities to others like Marra or Bruce or Weightman. Without him there they shut our forwards down too easily. Eg the Swans game.

So I agree Gardner is first choice. Without him it’s tough. Wood will help, is composed, provides leadership and can play tall to some extent.

I still wouldn’t rule out Young but he makes me as nervous as Cordy. Lots of eggs in the Gardner rehab basket.

It's an absolute dilemma. I've kept Naughts forward in scenario B, hoping that we dominate the middle and clearances and the supply and hopefully conversion just overwhelms whoever we play. If that happened, that might even make Jamarra redundant to a degree, although, instead of a hard working mid having to rest forward, they might get more bench time to keep up the relentless midfield and clearance pressure. Libba, Dunks, Treloar, Smith, Bont and Macrae full time in the guts. But in a game where we're being equalled around stoppages etc pushing Naughts back allows our defence to hold up.

I'd be making the call after the Melbourne game. I'd persist with what we've got, including Cordy, up to and into including Melbourne. I'd play Martin in the Melbourne game if he's fit, to see how much of a difference that makes against Gawn (remembering it Sweet v Gawn last time) and co but I'd rest Jamarra for that game and wouldn't play Treloar or Wood.

V Melbourne

B: Williams Keath Duryea

HB: Dale Cordy Richards

C: McLean Bont Macrae

HF: Weightman Naughton Hunter

FF: English Bruce JJ

R: Martin Libba Dunkley

I/C: McNeil Smith Daniel Garcia

Richards gets a few games to show improved ball use and decision making and McLean gets a shot at displacing Garcia. Melbourne don't get a look at us with Treloar and Marra or a revised defence and we get to see how far off we are when Dunks and Martin are in against a top team or if a defensive change is even necessary.

If Melbourne win convincingly or get too many looks at our defence and expose it I'd make the call on Gardner then as either being in or out for finals and plan around that (a realistic assessment from the medicos). If he's ruled out, I'd make the changes in Round 21, bringing Wood and Treloar in, Marra back and VDM in if he's fit and run with scenario B for the last 3 rounds to bed it in and get continuity and then onto finals.

Marra then ends up with a 3 game run, week off, 3 game run with the last against a top team Port, week off, game, potentially another week off, game etc. We also get the last 3 rounds to see how dominant our midfield can be at full strength with our break glass option always available whilst not losing the 3 headed monster.

And whilst the monster is diminished with Naughts back, I view it as the lesser evil (Cordy or Young in defence) especially when viewed in the context that Treloar and VDM can be running and gunning and Dunks and Libba combined free up Bont's workload and allow he and Macrae to range a little more outside the contest.

 

[dogwatch]

It's an absolute dilemma. I've kept Naughts forward in scenario B, hoping that we dominate the middle and clearances and the supply and hopefully conversion just overwhelms whoever we play. If that happened, that might even make Jamarra redundant to a degree, although, instead of a hard working mid having to rest forward, they might get more bench time to keep up the relentless midfield and clearance pressure. Libba, Dunks, Treloar, Smith, Bont and Macrae full time in the guts. But in a game where we're being equalled around stoppages etc pushing Naughts back allows our defence to hold up.

I'd be making the call after the Melbourne game. I'd persist with what we've got, including Cordy, up to and into including Melbourne. I'd play Martin in the Melbourne game if he's fit, to see how much of a difference that makes against Gawn (remembering it Sweet v Gawn last time) and co but I'd rest Jamarra for that game and wouldn't play Treloar or Wood.

V Melbourne

B: Williams Keath Duryea

HB: Dale Cordy Richards

C: McLean Bont Macrae

HF: Weightman Naughton Hunter

FF: English Bruce JJ

R: Martin Libba Dunkley

I/C: McNeil Smith Daniel Garcia

Richards gets a few games to show improved ball use and decision making and McLean gets a shot at displacing Garcia. Melbourne don't get a look at us with Treloar and Marra or a revised defence and we get to see how far off we are when Dunks and Martin are in against a top team or if a defensive change is even necessary.

If Melbourne win convincingly or get too many looks at our defence and expose it I'd make the call on Gardner then as either being in or out for finals and plan around that (a realistic assessment from the medicos). If he's ruled out, I'd make the changes in Round 21, bringing Wood and Treloar in, Marra back and VDM in if he's fit and run with scenario B for the last 3 rounds to bed it in and get continuity and then onto finals.

Marra then ends up with a 3 game run, week off, 3 game run with the last against a top team Port, week off, game, potentially another week off, game etc. We also get the last 3 rounds to see how dominant our midfield can be at full strength with our break glass option always available whilst not losing the 3 headed monster.

And whilst the monster is diminished with Naughts back, I view it as the lesser evil (Cordy or Young in defence) especially when viewed in the context that Treloar and VDM can be running and gunning and Dunks and Libba combined free up Bont's workload and allow he and Macrae to range a little more outside the contest.

A left field suggestion if Gardner’s not fit but Martin is … play English 80% in defence. Have Cordy and Wood alongside.

 

[Next Waiting]

A left field suggestion if Gardner’s not fit but Martin is … play English 80% in defence. Have Cordy and Wood alongside.

Could absolutely be worth a try DW. It was in the options I considered but I thought Naughts has more experience back there and better closing speed. However, a Naughts Bruce Marra monster vs an English Bruce Marra monster does look more threatening.....

 

[bobs head soup]

A left field suggestion if Gardner’s not fit but Martin is … play English 80% in defence. Have Cordy and Wood alongside.

That may be worth trying early in a season, but Premiership defences work on systems as a group throughout the year. Chucking in a lynchpin late in the season would be a low percentage play

 

[doggies ftw]

Geez it’s a good top spot to win this year, giving you a home final against Brissy or Port, rather than the alternative of playing Geelong or Melbourne. Spewing Hawks couldn’t get it done on Saturday night as a draw was as good as a win for Melbourne.

I still think winner of Melb vs us gets top spot, gonna be a tough game though

 

[Optimistic Dog]

We only need 3 wins from last 5 games to guarantee top 4 and that is if the lions and swans win all their games. Surely that is not a tough ask. Win all 5 and we finish on top. Hoping we get Martin, Treloar and Wood back with a couple games to go Dunkley is a given. Our one wood and killer punch is midfield dominance no one goes with our best midfield in form it is the weapon all opposition will fear.

 

[Cudi]

Given the current circumstances and the real possibility of no crowds or limited crowds in Victoria come finals, I think top 2 is more important now.

We have to finish above the Cats so there is no chance of playing a final down there in Geelong. Can see a situation with us finishing 3rd and them 2nd so it getting played at Kardina rather than the MCG due to a limited crowd.

I know there request to move this weeks game got rejected but that makes me think the AFL will be more inclined to give them a final to make up for it and save grace.

 

[doggies ftw]

Given the current circumstances and the real possibility of no crowds or limited crowds in Victoria come finals, I think top 2 is more important now.

We have to finish above the Cats so there is no chance of playing a final down there in Geelong. Can see a situation with us finishing 3rd and them 2nd so it getting played at Kardina rather than the MCG due to a limited crowd.

I know there request to move this weeks game got rejected but that makes me think the AFL will be more inclined to give them a final to make up for it and save grace.

Completely fine with that decision, so long as we get to play at Marvel if we get the home final

 

[Cudi]

Completely fine with that decision, so long as we get to play at Marvel if we get the home final

Agree but you just know they wouldn't (Re: 2015)

 

[Next Waiting]

In the tsunami metaphor, over the week of the Swans and Suns games, it felt like the tide was right out and many things were exposed.

Momentum now building, key players due back, other teams should seek higher ground.

 

[X_box_X]

Ladder predictor...

1. Dogs
2. Cats
3. Dees
4. Power
5. Swans
6. Lions
7. Eagles
8. Tigers

So that would mean three week one finals matchups will have also played each other in the final round of the season...

 

[Doggy]

Ladder predictor...

1. Dogs
2. Cats
3. Dees
4. Power
5. Swans
6. Lions
7. Eagles
8. Tigers

So that would mean three week one finals matchups will have also played each other in the final round of the season...

That'd be a good result for us.

Port are garbage

 

[manutd/dogs]

One hundred and forty-four years this great club has existed. We've outlived the Industrial Revolution, two World Wars, and several football clubs. We're so old we even re-named ourselves after Napoleon's great nephew ffs. And for all those years, ninety-six of them in the V/AFL, not once have we finished on top at the end of home and away.

Subsequently, we're trailing behind even such luminaries as Freo and St Kilda. Every team in the league except for GWS and GC has at least one, bar the Lions and us. F*ck that.

I was there for the match against North in '98 and was shattered we lost. Obviously a flag is all that counts, but damn it'd be nice to be on top of the pile, surveying our kingdom, heading into finals.

I want that McClelland Trophy in our cabinet along with the 2021 Cup.

 

[Merlins Revenge]

Made a decision that if we finish top of the ladder, I’ll drive to see the flags on the side of the princess highway with my dad (If he is able to). Finishing top of the ladder would be such a special event.

 

[Werewolf]

Made a decision that if we finish top of the ladder, I’ll drive to see the flags on the side of the princess highway with my dad (If he is able to). Finishing top of the ladder would be such a special event.

At the very least, we can break the club record for H&A season wins. Two more to equal 1985 and 1992, but should win at least three!

 

[X_box_X]

18 wins and 140%

Let's set ourselves to achieve that in preparation for finals.

 

[bobs head soup]

18 wins and 140%

Let's set ourselves to achieve that in preparation for finals.

Our best ever h&a percentage was 136.5 in 1953.

If we can go 17 wins and 136.6 and finish top, we will have beaten our previous best in all categories (wins, % and finishing position).

That is achievable from here and would mark a brilliant h&a season.

Then for the big month.

 

[ScragCity]

The interesting thing about this season for us is that we basically have the same team we did last season. We really haven't gotten much out of Martin or Treloar this year due to their injuries. The main difference between this year and last year has just been organic growth from the players we already had. Bailey Dale

31

Bailey Dale

Age

27

Ht

188cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

1.6

4star

MG

117.4

2star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.1

2star

HB

3.9

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.7

3star

MG

117.4

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

4star

in defence has been huge. The massively improved form of Josh Bruce

17

Josh Bruce

Age

31

Ht

198cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

4.6

3star

M

4.5

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

90.4

1star

D

8.9

2star

K

3.5

1star

HB

5.4

3star

M

2.5

3star

T

1.3

2star

MG

90.4

2star

D

11.2

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.8

3star

. Naughton not being injured most of the year. Bont, Libba, Macrae, Smith etc. all peaking and hitting career-best form. The Keath and Bruce trades from 2019 have really started to pay dividends this year. I don't think we would be in the top four without those two guys. Bruce hasn't been taking as many marks lately but his presence and defensive stuff is incredibly important to how our forward line functions.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Unless I’m mistaken, and unless our % takes a hit, we can afford to drop a game and still be assured of top 2 as Geelong play Melbourne in the last round.

Pretty good position to be in.

 

[Doggy]

Unless I’m mistaken, and unless our % takes a hit, we can afford to drop a game and still be assured of top 2 as Geelong play Melbourne in the last round.

Pretty good position to be in.

Who's going to beat us though?

Port? Haha

 

[The Inbetweener]

Who's going to beat us though?

Port? Haha

Nah shouldn’t drop one, just saying if we do it’s not the end of the world.

 

[Doggy]

Nah shouldn’t drop one, just saying if we don’t it’s not the end of the world.

I'm more concerned who finishes 4th

 

[bobs head soup]

Who's going to beat us though?

Port? Haha

Ourselves if we indulge in too much hubris.