swansfan51
Brownlow Medallist
- Jun 3, 2007
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List Management 101
Welcome to List Management 101. This may become a series, depending on how interesting people find it. It will contain evidence-based assessments of various aspects of list management, like my previous detailed review of our drafting history.
Episode 1 - Position valuations (AKA why we should NOT trade Jetta for Sinclair, and why Kurt Tippett is untradeable)
Not all positions in the AFL are created equal. Not just in terms of their game impact, but how easy the players are to obtain through the draft. Some of this analysis confirms the common wisdom in certain areas, however some of it shows that the popular opinion is miles off.
For every position, there is an exception. This has focused on the most dominant players in the game at each position, and how easily players of that level can be acquired.
1) Key Forwards
2) Daylight
Key forwards are undeniably the highest value in the game. But why, you ask, when the biggest trades in history have been for gun midfielders like Chris "pressure point" Judd?
Here are the top 25 tall forwards for goals scored in 2015 (in order), plus how they initially got on an AFL list. (As a side note, look at the massive prevalence of shenanigans in this list - this is not matched elsewhere)
Josh J Kennedy - Pick 4
Jeremy Cameron - Shenanigans
Taylor Walker - Shenanigans
Jack Gunston - Pick 29
Jack Riewoldt - Pick 13
Jarryd Roughead - Pick 2
Josh Bruce - Shenanigans
Lance Franklin - Pick 5
Josh Jenkins - Rookie Draft
Tom Hawkins - Shenanigans
Kurt Tippett - Pick 32
Jesse Hogan - Shenanigans
Jay Schulz - Pick 12
Tom Lynch (GC) - Pick 11
Drew Petrie - Pick 23
Jarrad Waite - Shenanigans
Charlie Dixon - Shenanigans
Matthew Pavlich - Pick 4
Cameron McCarthy - Pick 14
Joe Daniher - Shenanigans
Travis Cloke - Shenanigans
Tom Lynch (Ad) - Pick 13
Ben Brown - Pick 47
Tyrone Vickery - Pick 8
Nick Riewoldt - Pick 1
Only 4 on the entire list were taken outside the top 25. 2 of the 4 are ruck/forwards and 1 is a basketball convert. Jack Gunston is not a traditional contested key target.
TLDR: Don't bother trying to get a gun key forward if you don't have a high draft pick, maybe you can have a crack at a basketball player but your odds are low. The moral of the story is if you get a chance to get a gun key forward you simply, absolutely, must take it. And you sure as hell don't trade them away unless you are forced to.
3) Classy Midfielders
No real surprise here. Midfielders dominate the AFL awards every year, and are valued very highly. However they are ranked below key forwards because, unlike key forwards, it is actually possible to find dominant midfielders outside the top draft picks.
5 of the top 10 disposal winners in 2015 meet the criteria: Mitchell, Kennedy, Hannebery, Priddis, Neale. On top of that you have Gray (All Australian), Dahlhaus (AA squad), Swan (AA squad), Rockliff etc.
Does having a top 10 pick help? Of course it does - Judd, Selwood, Gaff, Deledio, Hodge and many others have been high certainty prospects at that level. But you don't have to have a high pick to get a gun, like you do with key forwards.
I haven't bothered creating a separate category for this purpose, but you should also note that your basic accumulator midfielders (some of which can reach a pretty high level) are always plentiful and available cheaply.
4) Key defenders
Key defenders are higher on the list than I expected, but that is only because the next categories are even less valuable.
Some of the best key defenders in the league are taken high in the draft - Harry Taylor, Alex Rance, Michael Hurley and this year Jacob Weitering. However unlike key forwards they can be found at any section of the draft, including the rookie draft. Note that the midfield guns outside the top 25 are usually still found in the National Draft, however strong AFL key defenders can be found even lower.
Jeremy McGovern, Heath Grundy, Josh Gibson, Brian Lake, Tom McDonald, Cale Hooker, Michael Johnson - all 50+ or lower and of absolute high quality. Plus numerous other late picks holding down KPD positions in the AFL like Frost x2, Delaney, Clarke.
Trading a high pick or valuable key forward/midfielder for a key defender is poor list management.
5) Small/medium defenders
These guys are a bit tricky. Defence is often used as a dumping ground for midfielders who can't quite cut it there, but can make a strong impact as half-back types. Therefore they can come from very high draft positions. This will focus on the defenders, rather than bastardised midfielders.
Sorry Nick Smith, you're just not that valuable. You and your buddies like Laird (rookie), Wood (pick 43), Williams (rookie), Enright (pick 47), Langdon (pick 65), Rampe (rookie), Baguley (rookie), Hibberd (PSD), are the best at your craft, but nobody in their right mind would squander a high draft pick on you with that knowledge.
6) Ruckmen
Am I underrating the ruckmen? Are they no longer an important part of AFL? 'Absolutely not' is the answer to both questions. However this thread is to assess their comparative value and to lead to informed list management.
Todd Goldstein (AA, 1st in hitouts) - pick 37
Aaron Sandilands (2nd in hitouts) - rookie
Sam Jacobs (3rd in hitouts) - rookie
Stefan Martin (5th in hitouts) - PSD
Ivan Maric (6th in hitouts) - pick 40
Mike Pyke (8th in hitouts) - rugby
Max Gawn (10th in hitouts) - pick 34
No, I don't think hitouts are all that matters for a ruckman, it was just a handy method of sorting them. Other ruckmen from 2015? Shane Mumford (rookie), Sinclair (rookie), Blicavs (steeplechase), Ceglar (rookie), Spencer and so on.
Not only are ruckmen regularly found from late rounds, the PSD and the rookie draft, they can even be found by taking pot shots at random tall people from completely unrelated sports. Combined with some high profile failures of ruckmen drafted in the first round (Wood, Spaanderman, Laycock, Meesen, Gorringe, Cordy), why would you bother? Once every 2 years, some peanut of a list manager butchers a 1st round selection on a ruckman. Considering on average 1 ruckman goes in the 1st round each year, that's quite remarkable. These failures don't turn into "serviceable" players in the 22, they get delisted having contributed absolutely * all. There is no middle ground.
7) Small forwards
This won't surprise anyone, so I'll keep it short (pun not intended). The truly elite "small forwards" that are drafted highly are taken there because they are really midfielders wearing makeup. Chad Wingard was a dominant midfielder in his junior career, and everyone expects him to return there at some point.
Who are the best 'true' small forwards in the game? Betts (PSD), Breust (rookie), Dickson (pick 57), Walters (pick 53), Garlett (rookie), Elliott (shenanigans), Puopolo (pick 66). Speaks for itself.
Summary
1) Get tall forwards however you can, hang onto them at all costs.
2) Use your high draft picks on key forwards, midfielders and occasionally key defenders.
3) Don't bother taking key forwards after the 1st round unless they are ruckmen or basketballers, you are just wasting everyone's time.
4) Take some chances on small forwards, and defenders of all sizes late in the draft.
5) Either use late picks on ruckmen or trade (CHEAPLY) for the reserves at other clubs.
I hope this has proven interesting.
EDIT 11/10/15 Thanks to Wayne Swan for his correction of Waite, I have updated the KPF sections.
Welcome to List Management 101. This may become a series, depending on how interesting people find it. It will contain evidence-based assessments of various aspects of list management, like my previous detailed review of our drafting history.
Episode 1 - Position valuations (AKA why we should NOT trade Jetta for Sinclair, and why Kurt Tippett is untradeable)
Not all positions in the AFL are created equal. Not just in terms of their game impact, but how easy the players are to obtain through the draft. Some of this analysis confirms the common wisdom in certain areas, however some of it shows that the popular opinion is miles off.
For every position, there is an exception. This has focused on the most dominant players in the game at each position, and how easily players of that level can be acquired.
1) Key Forwards
2) Daylight
Key forwards are undeniably the highest value in the game. But why, you ask, when the biggest trades in history have been for gun midfielders like Chris "pressure point" Judd?
Here are the top 25 tall forwards for goals scored in 2015 (in order), plus how they initially got on an AFL list. (As a side note, look at the massive prevalence of shenanigans in this list - this is not matched elsewhere)
Josh J Kennedy - Pick 4
Jeremy Cameron - Shenanigans
Taylor Walker - Shenanigans
Jack Gunston - Pick 29
Jack Riewoldt - Pick 13
Jarryd Roughead - Pick 2
Josh Bruce - Shenanigans
Lance Franklin - Pick 5
Josh Jenkins - Rookie Draft
Tom Hawkins - Shenanigans
Kurt Tippett - Pick 32
Jesse Hogan - Shenanigans
Jay Schulz - Pick 12
Tom Lynch (GC) - Pick 11
Drew Petrie - Pick 23
Jarrad Waite - Shenanigans
Charlie Dixon - Shenanigans
Matthew Pavlich - Pick 4
Cameron McCarthy - Pick 14
Joe Daniher - Shenanigans
Travis Cloke - Shenanigans
Tom Lynch (Ad) - Pick 13
Ben Brown - Pick 47
Tyrone Vickery - Pick 8
Nick Riewoldt - Pick 1
Only 4 on the entire list were taken outside the top 25. 2 of the 4 are ruck/forwards and 1 is a basketball convert. Jack Gunston is not a traditional contested key target.
TLDR: Don't bother trying to get a gun key forward if you don't have a high draft pick, maybe you can have a crack at a basketball player but your odds are low. The moral of the story is if you get a chance to get a gun key forward you simply, absolutely, must take it. And you sure as hell don't trade them away unless you are forced to.
3) Classy Midfielders
No real surprise here. Midfielders dominate the AFL awards every year, and are valued very highly. However they are ranked below key forwards because, unlike key forwards, it is actually possible to find dominant midfielders outside the top draft picks.
5 of the top 10 disposal winners in 2015 meet the criteria: Mitchell, Kennedy, Hannebery, Priddis, Neale. On top of that you have Gray (All Australian), Dahlhaus (AA squad), Swan (AA squad), Rockliff etc.
Does having a top 10 pick help? Of course it does - Judd, Selwood, Gaff, Deledio, Hodge and many others have been high certainty prospects at that level. But you don't have to have a high pick to get a gun, like you do with key forwards.
I haven't bothered creating a separate category for this purpose, but you should also note that your basic accumulator midfielders (some of which can reach a pretty high level) are always plentiful and available cheaply.
4) Key defenders
Key defenders are higher on the list than I expected, but that is only because the next categories are even less valuable.
Some of the best key defenders in the league are taken high in the draft - Harry Taylor, Alex Rance, Michael Hurley and this year Jacob Weitering. However unlike key forwards they can be found at any section of the draft, including the rookie draft. Note that the midfield guns outside the top 25 are usually still found in the National Draft, however strong AFL key defenders can be found even lower.
Jeremy McGovern, Heath Grundy, Josh Gibson, Brian Lake, Tom McDonald, Cale Hooker, Michael Johnson - all 50+ or lower and of absolute high quality. Plus numerous other late picks holding down KPD positions in the AFL like Frost x2, Delaney, Clarke.
Trading a high pick or valuable key forward/midfielder for a key defender is poor list management.
5) Small/medium defenders
These guys are a bit tricky. Defence is often used as a dumping ground for midfielders who can't quite cut it there, but can make a strong impact as half-back types. Therefore they can come from very high draft positions. This will focus on the defenders, rather than bastardised midfielders.
Sorry Nick Smith, you're just not that valuable. You and your buddies like Laird (rookie), Wood (pick 43), Williams (rookie), Enright (pick 47), Langdon (pick 65), Rampe (rookie), Baguley (rookie), Hibberd (PSD), are the best at your craft, but nobody in their right mind would squander a high draft pick on you with that knowledge.
6) Ruckmen
Am I underrating the ruckmen? Are they no longer an important part of AFL? 'Absolutely not' is the answer to both questions. However this thread is to assess their comparative value and to lead to informed list management.
Todd Goldstein (AA, 1st in hitouts) - pick 37
Aaron Sandilands (2nd in hitouts) - rookie
Sam Jacobs (3rd in hitouts) - rookie
Stefan Martin (5th in hitouts) - PSD
Ivan Maric (6th in hitouts) - pick 40
Mike Pyke (8th in hitouts) - rugby
Max Gawn (10th in hitouts) - pick 34
No, I don't think hitouts are all that matters for a ruckman, it was just a handy method of sorting them. Other ruckmen from 2015? Shane Mumford (rookie), Sinclair (rookie), Blicavs (steeplechase), Ceglar (rookie), Spencer and so on.
Not only are ruckmen regularly found from late rounds, the PSD and the rookie draft, they can even be found by taking pot shots at random tall people from completely unrelated sports. Combined with some high profile failures of ruckmen drafted in the first round (Wood, Spaanderman, Laycock, Meesen, Gorringe, Cordy), why would you bother? Once every 2 years, some peanut of a list manager butchers a 1st round selection on a ruckman. Considering on average 1 ruckman goes in the 1st round each year, that's quite remarkable. These failures don't turn into "serviceable" players in the 22, they get delisted having contributed absolutely * all. There is no middle ground.
7) Small forwards
This won't surprise anyone, so I'll keep it short (pun not intended). The truly elite "small forwards" that are drafted highly are taken there because they are really midfielders wearing makeup. Chad Wingard was a dominant midfielder in his junior career, and everyone expects him to return there at some point.
Who are the best 'true' small forwards in the game? Betts (PSD), Breust (rookie), Dickson (pick 57), Walters (pick 53), Garlett (rookie), Elliott (shenanigans), Puopolo (pick 66). Speaks for itself.
Summary
1) Get tall forwards however you can, hang onto them at all costs.
2) Use your high draft picks on key forwards, midfielders and occasionally key defenders.
3) Don't bother taking key forwards after the 1st round unless they are ruckmen or basketballers, you are just wasting everyone's time.
4) Take some chances on small forwards, and defenders of all sizes late in the draft.
5) Either use late picks on ruckmen or trade (CHEAPLY) for the reserves at other clubs.
I hope this has proven interesting.
EDIT 11/10/15 Thanks to Wayne Swan for his correction of Waite, I have updated the KPF sections.
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