Live 2008 Non-presidential election thread

[DaveW]

All other races here please. Senate, Governor, House of Reps, ballot measures, local dog-catcher, whatever interests you...

Senate

A quick preview of the Senate. The Democrats currently hold a 51 (including two independents) to 49 advantage over the Republicans.

This year there are 35 seats up for re-election (including two special elections), 23 seats are being defended by the Republicans, 12 by the Democrats.

Consequently all the action appears to be on the Republican side of the ledger. The Democrats look set to take over from retiring Republicans in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado. Of the other races, the following are the most competitive:

New Hampshire: John Sununu (R-inc) v Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Alaska: Ted Stevens (R-inc) v Mark Begich (D)
Oregon: Gordon Smith (R-inc) v Jeff Merkley (D)
North Carolina: Liddy Dole (R-inc) v Kay Hagan (D)
Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R-inc) v Al Franken (D)
Georgia: Saxby Chambliss (R-inc) v Jim Martin (D)
Mississippi (special): Roger Wicker (R-inc) v Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R-inc) v Bruce Lunsford (D)

If there's a competitive seat on the Democratic side of the ledger, it's probably this one:

Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D-inc) v John Kennedy (R)

Governors

Most states have their gubernatorial elections coinciding with the mid-term elections, but a handful hold them during the presidential year. Eleven gubernatorial contests are being held today. Most are a non-event, with the incumbent parties looking like being easily returned in eight contests. In a ninth, Missouri, the Democrats will easily take the governor's mansion from the GOP. There are however two competitive contests, both being defended by the Democrats:

North Carolina: Bev Perdue (D) v Pat McCrory (R)
Washington: Christine Gregoire (D-inc) v Dino Rossi (R)

Etc

Competitive House races? Too numerous to mention.

Ballot measures? I'm guessing there'll be some interested in California's proposition 8. With a fairly self-explanatory title - "Eliminates Right of Same-Sex Couples to Marry" - it seeks to write discrimination into the California constitution, in a state where gay marriage is presently legal. Polls show a close contest.

 

[Dont be a lemon]

It will be interesting to see if the Democrats can get 60 in the Senate - enough to ignore the Republicans (if the Democrats can vote together) when it comes to confirming Supreme Court judges and other things.

Ballot measures? I'm guessing there'll be some interested in California's proposition 8. With a fairly self-explanatory title - "Eliminates Right of Same-Sex Couples to Marry" - it seeks to write discrimination into the California constitution, in a state where gay marriage is presently legal. Polls show a close contest.

It will be very disappointing if it gets up (or down - which ever side of the question is anti-gay ).

 

[DaveW]

I think the 60 seat target is way overblown.

It's been hyped up to the point where if the Democrats fall short of that, it'll seem like a GOP victory.

The Democrats can be fairly sure of gaining seven seats, IMO. To get to 60, they'd need to win Minnesota and one of the longshot states (GA, MS, KY). PLUS they've got to keep Lieberman in caucus.

So it's a difficult ask to say the least. However, I don't think the Democrats will necessarily need 60 seats. Voting is rarely party line, and some Republicans won't always want to be part of the party leadership's obstructionist agenda. The Republicans need 41 seats to sustain a filibuster, and it may prove difficult maintain that even with as much as 43 seats in the new Senate.

 

[Galactic]

Well lets hope someone can obstruct something if they end up voting on the fairness doctrine. On a side note, the black panthers are apparently scaring people who are voting in Philadelphia. Can you imagine the riots if B.O were to lose today, which he wont by the way.

 

[KissStephanie]

All other races here please. Senate, Governor, House of Reps, ballot measures, local dog-catcher, whatever interests you...

I'm going to do my bit and vote shortly, and then we'll just see how the rest of the nation has voted later tonight. The only chance for McCain to win is if there is an incredible unforeseen turnout of registered Republicans at the polls, and a massive failure to vote from the unreliable 18-29 year old age group if the queues are too long for them, and if they believe that Obama will win anyway. I expect the Democrat's to gain three or four more seats in New York's congressional delegation and they may end up holding 27 of the state's 29 seats. Currently the Republican's hold six seats.

 

[DaveW]

Yeah it's incredible how dominant Congressional Democrats have become, and could further be, in New York state.

They already hold a 23 to 6 advantage in the House of Representatives delegation. The party looks set to gain NY-13, the only GOP seat in NYC. The upstate Republican districts of NY-25, NY-26 and NY-29 are also firmly in play.

If they swept the lot of them, that would, as you say, give the Dems a 27 to 2 advantage. And even those remaining two would be vulnerable if their Republican incumbents were to retire (especially Peter King's Long Island district.)

 

[Refried Noodle]

Kentucky senate close with 10% counted. 50% to 50%.

 

[DaveW]

Virginia Senate seat called for Democratic candidate and former Governor Mark Warner... as expected.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

I didn't realise this until this morning, but Norm Coleman (Franken's opponent in Minnesota) was the guy who lost to Jesse Ventura in the 1998 governors race. So he's lost to an oddball candidate before.

 

[DaveW]

Yeah Coleman's had some interesting opponents.

Ventura, Skip Humphrey (son of Hubert), Walter Mondale, now Franken.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

MSNBC projecting that, so far, Democrats have won 44 seats to 29. Two independents normally caucus with the Dems, so they're calling it 46-29 so far.

 

[Refried Noodle]

Kay Hagan called as winner over Dole in North Carolina Senate seat.

 

[DaveW]

Bye bye Dole. Bye bye Sununu.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

McConnell leading Lunsford 52-48 with 33% of the vote in.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

MSNBC calling that the Democrats have won four gubernatorial races - Delaware, Indiana, Missouri and New Hampshire.

 

[SunKing]

Bye bye Dole

And good riddance.
Was a huge margin as well.

 

[DaveW]

MSNBC calling that the Democrats have won four gubernatorial races - Delaware, Indiana, Missouri and New Hampshire.

The Republicans won Indiana.

 

[Juddism]

godless bitch!

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Big Bad John seems to have gotten his six years mo'.

 

[DaveW]

Chris Shays (R) has lost in CT-04.

The Democrats now hold every House seat in New England.

 

[DaveW]

If there's a competitive seat on the Democratic side of the ledger, it's probably this one:

Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D-inc) v John Kennedy (R)

Glad I mentioned this. (Almost as a footnote. )

Landrieu leads only narrowly. 50-48 with 56% in.

 

[DaveW]

Landrieu projected winner in Louisiana. Though the official figures are still tight.

Still waiting for a call on Colorado. Udall well ahead.

 

[DaveW]

Finally, Colorado is called.

That's five gains in the bag.

Merkley has the edge in Oregon. 50-44 with 22% in.

Minnesota very tight. Franken holds a tiny 42-42 lead with 38% in.

 

[DaveW]

Democrats have held onto the governor's mansion in North Carolina.

 

[DaveW]

Democrats sweep New Mexico.

The party has taken its five electoral votes, the Senate seat and all three House seats.