Live 2008 Non-presidential election thread

[DaveW]

Urgh indeed. I dislike her almost as much as Palin. She couldn't have handled herself any worse over the last month, yet still wins. Amazing.

Swing State Project has compiled some of the presidential results by congressional district:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pRel6Mvd0g05iuxg8zYv4Fg&gid=0

On the basis of this year's presidential election, MN-06 is the most Republican district in the state. Bachmann, for all her nuttiness, had the luxury of falling back on the natual conservative tilt of her district. Though I'm still left wondering why the GOP bailed on her.

More disappointing is the failure of the Democrats to capture the open seat in MN-03 (also in the Minnesota suburbs), where Obama beat McCain by 6.4 points.

 

[DaveW]

Here's Nate Silver's analysis of the Minnesota Senate recount.

Where I couldn't find a plausible reason why the Franken vote might be systematically undercounted, he does: demographics. Thus, on the basis of certain assumptions, he gives Franken a pretty good chance of winning this.

The piece is quite long and detailed (some of the number crunching is difficult to get your head around) but here's what I think are the key passages:

Until now, however, we have been assuming that ballot tabulation errors are equally likely to favor Franken and Coleman -- but this is probably not the case. Why not? There is substantial evidence that undervotes and overvotes are significantly more common among what we might call vulnerable voters -- in particular, minorities, elderly voters, low-income and low-education voters, and first-time voters. A 2001 study for the House Committee on Government Reform, found that undervoted ballots were more than twice as common in minority-heavy, low-income precincts than in predominately white, upper-income precincts -- even when using the relatively reliable, precinct-based optical scanning system that Minnesota uses. (The discrepancies are significantly higher when using less reliable technologies like punch cards.)

How might these demographics play out in Minnesota? According to exit polls, elderly voters split their votes almost exactly evenly between Franken and Coleman (Coleman's strength came from middle-aged voters, not older or younger ones). There was little relationship, moreover, between education levels and voter preferences.

Among other groups of vulnerable voters, however, Franken sigificantly outperformed Coleman. Franken led by 15 points among voters making $50,000 or less, while Coleman led by 3 among voters making between $50,000 and $100,000, and by 16 among voters making $100,000 or more. Coleman won white voters by 3 points, but Franken won among minorities by 40 points. And while there is no direct evidence of this in the exit polls, it is likely that Franken performed significantly better than Coleman among first-time voters.

Assume that minorities are 50% more likely than white voters to have undervoted the ballot; this is arguably a conservative assumption. If this is the case, than about 51.0% of reclassified ballots (excluding those cast for third parties) are likely to be resolved in Franken's favor. Alternatively, suppose that voters making $50,000 or less are 50% more likely than wealthier voters to have undervoted the ballot. In this case, 51.3% of reclassified ballots would go to Franken. This might not seem like a big deal, but as you'll see in a moment, it makes a huge amount of difference.

If, over the long run, we expect Franken to win 51% of corrected ballots, his odds of winning the recount may be quite strong -- in fact, he may be the prohibitive favorite depending on the number of recounted ballots:

 

[DaveW]

FiveThirtyEight.com is proving just as valuable a resource post-election as pre-.

More insight into the potential outcome of the Minnesota recount can be found here and here. See also this.

But I'm really bumping this thread to call attention to the latest news from Alaska:

Stevens' Lead Shrinks to 971 Votes, With Many Yet to be Counted

The state of Alaska is now reporting that Ted Stevens has 118,602 votes to Mark Begich's 117,631, a gap of 971 ballots. This incorporates 28,519 ballots which have been counted since this morning.

Prior to today, Stevens' lead over Begich had been 3,257 votes, with the state of Alaska having reported that about 90,000 votes remained to be counted. Although some of those votes will be thrown out (such as duplicate votes when the voter both sent in an absentee ballot and came to the polling place), there are still plenty of votes remaining to be counted, and Begich is making up ground at a sufficient pace that he appears more likely than not to surpass Stevens.

A significant number of additional votes will be counted before close of business today, although approximately 8 of Alaska's 40 house districts won't finalize their counting process until Friday at the earliest. The areas that will report late consist mostly of rural, Begich-friendly districts (contrary to our earlier reporting, Begich performed quite well in rural Alaska; his weaknesses were in the Anchorage Suburbs and the Mat-Su Valley).​

Go Begich!!!!

 

[waspy]

If the Dems can get MN and AK then it raises the possibility of giving one of the Maine ladies (Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins) a position on the administration so that the Dems could get one more senate seat there.

I can't see Martin winning in Georgia.

 

[DaveW]

Begich hits the lead!!!!!

by 3 votes

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/08general/data/results.htm

 

[DaveW]

If the Dems can get MN and AK then it raises the possibility of giving one of the Maine ladies (Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins) a position on the administration so that the Dems could get one more senate seat there.

I can't see Martin winning in Georgia.

Hehe. If you can't beat 'em, promote 'em.

 

[Palmer Stoat]

Begich's lead increases (814). Looks as if he's odds-on to win now:


Stevens (R) 131,382
Begich (D) 132,196

 

[stuart27]

Begich has claimed victory in Alaska, currently leading by 3,700 or so with not a lot left to count.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/begich-will-be-alaskas-first-us-senate.html

Still the possibility of Stevens paying for a recount, but Begich looks a sure thing.

 

[waspy]

Franken looking good early on in the MN recount.

 

[likka]

Still the possibility of Stevens paying for a recount, but Begich looks a sure thing.

Or getting an oil company to pay it for him.

 

[Goldenblue]

Amazing what happened to Ted Stevens when I thought he was a shoe in regardless of the problems he has been facing

 

[DaveW]

Yep. Begich has got home in late counting.

Reminds me a bit of Montana 2006.
a) The Democratic challenger prevailed only narrowly when polls suggested he'd win handily
b) The Republican incumbent was a corrupt old bastard

With Begich getting up and Lieberman staying in the Democratic caucus, the Republicans have still yet to achieve their incredibly modest aim of securing 41 seats. They need either Georgia or Minnesota.

 

[Dogga79]

This is video is getting plenty of attention at the moment. Over 1 million views on you tube. It goes for a while, but it says a lot about the media coverage during the presidential election campaign.


Check it out here http://www.howobamagotelected.com/



This is part of the poll they conducted.

512 Obama Voters 11/13/08-11/15/08 MOE +/- 4.4 points

97.1% High School Graduate or higher, 55% College Graduates

Results to 12 simple Multiple Choice Questions

57.4% could NOT correctly say which party controls congress (50/50 shot just by guessing)

71.8% could NOT correctly say Joe Biden quit a previous campaign because of plagiarism (25% chance by guessing)

82.6% could NOT correctly say that Barack Obama won his first election by getting opponents kicked off the ballot (25% chance by guessing)

88.4% could NOT correctly say that Obama said his policies would likely bankrupt the coal industry and make energy rates skyrocket (25% chance by guessing)

56.1% could NOT correctly say Obama started his political career at the home of two former members of the Weather Underground (25% chance by guessing).

And yet.....

Only 13.7% failed to identify Sarah Palin as the person on which their party spent $150,000 in clothes

Only 6.2% failed to identify Palin as the one with a pregnant teenage daughter

And 86.9 % thought that Palin said that she could see Russia from her "house," even though that was Tina Fey who said that!!

Only 2.4% got at least 11 correct.

Only .5% got all of them correct. (And we "gave" one answer that was technically not Palin, but actually Tina Fey)

 

[Dixie Flatline]

This is video is getting plenty of attention at the moment. Over 1 million views on you tube. It goes for a while, but it says a lot about the media coverage during the presidential election campaign.


Check it out here http://www.howobamagotelected.com/



This is part of the poll they conducted.

It's been torn to shreds by Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com. The bloke who created the website comes across as a few cards short of the full deck. The only real mystery is why Zogby International, normally a reliable pollster, would be caught up in such an incomplete and unreliable poll.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Sen. Joseph Biden's replacement has been named by the Governor of Delaware, Ruth Ann Minner. Gov. Minner announced Edward Kaufman, Sen. Biden's aide, would assume the vacancy which will arise when Sen. Biden is confirmed as Vice-President in January 2009.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/24/bidens-senate-replacement-named/?hp

 

[jimmy.h]

It's been torn to shreds by Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com. The bloke who created the website comes across as a few cards short of the full deck. The only real mystery is why Zogby International, normally a reliable pollster, would be caught up in such an incomplete and unreliable poll.

I'm not 100% on this, but I'm pretty sure Zogby has somewhat of a history of undertaking controversial polling outside of election season.

Back to the poll. Even if he ignore its dubious methodology, all the results suggest is that Obama supporters were more likely to remember McCain/Palin controversies than Obama/Biden controversies.

It doesn't take any polling of McCain voters to compare with, it doesn't establish any link's between the MMM coverage and the respondent's answers and it makes not attempt to determine if knowing the answers to any of the questions would have made a difference to the respondent's voting.

 

[DaveW]

Sen. Joseph Biden's replacement has been named by the Governor of Delaware, Ruth Ann Minner. Gov. Minner announced Edward Kaufman, Sen. Biden's aide, would assume the vacancy which will arise when Sen. Biden is confirmed as Vice-President in January 2009.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/24/bidens-senate-replacement-named/?hp

From the article:

Mr. Kaufman, 69, said he intended to retire after two years, leaving opening the possibility that Senator Biden’s son Beau, the state’s attorney general, could run in 2010.​

An interim pick?

Disappointing.

 

[Contra Mundum]

What has happened to Al Franken - did he get up?

 

[Palmer Stoat]

What has happened to Al Franken - did he get up?

The official count, which is ongoing, has him down by 172 votes, according to 538. Not sure how illuminating that figure really is because both sides, the GOP in particular, have challenged so many ballots.

 

[DaveW]

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1202/003.htm

Chambliss has won the run off pretty handily. By a margin of some 15 points.

That secures 41 Senate seats for the GOP.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Minnesota still yet to be decided.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/03/us/politics/03georgia.html

Down over the fold in that article.

 

[DaveW]

Two more Congressional races decided in Lousiana overnight; postponed because of Hurricane Gustav. One a narrow Republican hold, the other an upset Republican gain.

The latter, LA-02, brings to an end the 18 year Congressional career of the corrupt William Jefferson - he of the money in the freezer fame. Adios.

What makes it surprising is, firstly, that LA-02 is a staunchly Democratic district. It's one of those district deliberately drawn to contain a (substantial?) black majority, that every state in the south seems to have. Secondly, the district also returned Jefferson in 2006, after the corruption allegations first emerged, in a run-off against a fellow Democrat.

 

[Mr Q]

The latter, LA-02, brings to an end the 18 year Congressional career of the corrupt William Jefferson - he of the money in the freezer fame. Adios.

What makes it surprising is, firstly, that LA-02 is a staunchly Democratic district. It's one of those district deliberately drawn to contain a (substantial?) black majority, that every state in the south seems to have. Secondly, the district also returned Jefferson in 2006, after the corruption allegations first emerged, in a run-off against a fellow Democrat.

I guess that with the Democrats already holding the Presidency, House and Senate, it would have been pretty hard to get Democrat voters out to bother with a corrupt candidate, but easy to get GOP voters out by telling them that it's a chance to both get rid of that particular candidate and start the route back to power.

Plus of course, it'd be not unreasonable to suspect that the Democrats as a party weren't that interested in winning the seat - they don't need it for a majority, and it's one way of getting rid of an embarrassment. If it's that blue a district, they'll win it back eventually unless the incoming Republican is a spectacular local member.

 

[DaveW]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iThPAYm76gLicdTq9np-hwoFqaJgD94U6IEG0

Democrat wins central Ohio congressional race

By STEPHEN MAJORS – 8 hours ago

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Democrats have taken a seat from House Republicans after the counting of provisional ballots in a race in central Ohio.

Unofficial results Sunday showed that Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy beat Republican Steve Stivers (STY'-vurz) by more than 2,000 votes.

Provisional ballots are issued at polls to people who believe they were wrongly denied the right to vote. Stivers had held a lead of less than 600 votes before they were counted.

Kilroy narrowly lost election to the 15th Congressional District seat in 2006 to Republican Deborah Pryce. Pryce chose not to seek re-election.​

I'm amazed provisional ballots can make such a massive difference.

 

[camsmith]

Hmmm a lead of 594 votes turned into a deficit of 2,311.

Do we know how many provisional ballots were counted? Seems like a huge turnaround.

Edit: 24,000 provisional were counted. Seems about right then.

So that means the Democrats picked up 21 House seats.