NFL Division Winners and all things NFL 2012/13

[DonAce]

Week 1 NFL (Cont):

Roethlisberger play went to plan. Pittsburgh couldn’t get the run going very well, Big Ben was warming up after a slow first quarter, mini-shootout in the second half with Manning, but couldn’t quite get there. One more 15 yarder would have done it on the second last drive, instead he throws a pick.

Cest la vie. Tough week.

EDIT: So I went back to check my Bet365 balance, and something was amiss. Looks like they've added a 'confirm bet' button that I'd never used previously. Used to be you'd just hit it once and the bet would process, so my Big Ben bet never got confirmed. Would have been spewing if it had got up and not gone through, but as it is I'm pretty happy. Lucky break.

YTD: 5-6-0 (+1.4 units )

 

[RequiemBlade]

I went with that exact same multi, and suffice to say we got lucky with Detroit scoring a TD with 10 seconds remaining to get the win.

I am liking Denver though had to take them -2 for 1 unit. This is more a gut feel bet based on Manning being a big time player and this is a big time occasion for him, new team, opening game of the season, home deck, combined with the Steelers defence being a bit banged up with Harrison, Worilds and Clark either playing sore or missing. Either way though, I can't see it being a blowout.

Yeah definetely got lucky with the Kevin Smith TD (although Stafford threw 3 INTs for my fantasy...). Well read on the Steelers game, and while I haven't seen the highlights yet just looking at the stats (19/26 253yd 2TD) it looks like Manning is fine.

Did not see the Saints/Redskins outcome at all. RG3 was impressive and credit where credits due.
1-2-0

 

[Pweter]

Not easy games today.

I am taking the Chargers +1 over the Raiders for a unit. Bit of a line ball game but I am backing an established system vs a new system where the new system may take a bit of time to gel under the pressure of a regular season game. Their 2011 seasons were similar in that they both were more than competitive except for SD to have a mid season slump and Oakland to have an end of season slump. I need Rivers to establish his form of seasons gone by and hope his lackluster 2011 season was an abheration.

Don't think I'll touch Ravens vs Bengals, lean there is Bengals +7 but it is nothing more than a lean.

 

[DonAce]

Agreed Pweter – tough card.

I like the Ravens for a small play. Bengals were 0-7 vs playoff teams last year, and Ravens are unveiling their no huddle. At home, I think it’s a good play. Only a nibble though, because I rate the Bengals this year.

Also a couple of big props in the Chargers/Raiders game that I don’t know who’ll win but I think will be a shootout.

YTD: 5-6-0 (+1.4 units)

1U Ravens -7 vs Bengals @1.95 (Bet365)
5U P Rivers o290.5 yards passing @1.95 (Bet365)
5U M Floyd o68.5 yards receiving @1.74 (Bet365)

 

[iluvparis]

I am always bearish the Chargers so I have to take the Raiders at home at what look reaonable odds.

 

[DonAce]

Baltimore play hit, two player props missed (Floyd by 2.5 yards, sadly).

Week 1 in the books. My eye is out, especially with the player props.

Going to go nurse my pride for a few days, regroup, avoid swinging for the fence and have a slow and steady week two.

YTD: 6-8-0 (-7.6 units)

 

[Pweter]

Baltimore play hit, two player props missed (Floyd by 2.5 yards, sadly).

Week 1 in the books. My eye is out, especially with the player props.

Going to go nurse my pride for a few days, regroup, avoid swinging for the fence and have a slow and steady week two.

YTD: 6-8-0 (-7.6 units)

Tough break on the Floyd prop for sure. Last year I burnt myself way too often with player props so am giving them a miss this season, at least until I've got a decent gauge on how the season looks to be panning out.

Glad I saved myself the embarrassment of taking Bengals +7, that game turned into a route.

Raiders couldn't get past the 50m line for much of the 2nd half which had me sitting pretty comfortable with the Chargers a fair way from full time which was nice.

 

[DonAce]

Reckon I might do the same until I get a feel for the season, unless one sticks out at me as being really, really stupid (ie, Marshall at 70 yards).

Oh well, long season, and things should shake out. And hey, if nothing else, still got 93 or so units to blow or turn into a profit, so no problem.

Couple of early spots I like are Texans -7.5 at Jaguars and Cowboys -3 at Seahawks. What do people think of the week ahead?

 

[The Big Woofer]

very keen on a play tomorrow:

Chicago +6.5/Over 51.5 @ $3.50 (betstar)

the Bears have a legit chance to win & both offenses will put up big numbers, i think the packers D is very suspect.

 

[Pweter]

very keen on a play tomorrow:

Chicago +6.5/Over 51.5 @ $3.50 (betstar)

the Bears have a legit chance to win & both offenses will put up big numbers, i think the packers D is very suspect.

I like the Bears +6.5 call, it is one that I've been throwing around in my mind for a few days. The Bears defence has been solid for a while and they may be starting to get some offence to compliment it. You're right on the Packers defence, it has been leaking too many points.

I think I'll be leaving the total alone but at this point I am leaning Bears +6.5.

 

[DonAce]

I need to declare that I’ve been a Bears fan for years, but I like the Bears to cover that line as well.

The Bears offence is several classes above anything Chicago has seen since Payton was going around. It has a good QB and running game, and has finally been giving the receiving tools to capitalise on this. The weaknesses in the line have been covered for by a different Mike is now calling the plays. Tice’s game plans are taking some of the pressure off the O-line and, as a result, Cutler.

The Chicago defence has troubled Rodgers in the past. You’re never going to stop him, but you can curtail him, and that is bad for a Green Bay team that can’t run or defend the pass. They’ll stop the run, and if Peppers and Melton can get to Rodgers, the Bears can drop 7 and play their beloved Cover 2, Cover 3 and Deep Man schemes all day.

The Packers offence can put up numbers on anyone, but has struggled to really blow away the Bears. They can’t run, and helpfully cut the only RB they had who could against the Bears – Ryan Grant. The Bears stuff Starks, and shouldn’t have trouble with Benson. Rodgers will put up his numbers, but the Bears will rely on solid safety play, pressure from the D-line and hopefully a few turnovers.

The Packers defence… this is what will decide the game. If they can stop the run and get to Cutler, the Packers will have the ball all day, and the Bears defence will get tired and stumble. If not, the Bears should be able to run all day and put up decent numbers against a very weak secondary. This will put pressure on Rodgers and the passing game versus a defence designed to frustrate the pass.

Looks like Greg Jennings won’t play, and Urlacher and Tillman should. That swings it for me, and my lean is either team by a field goal. I’ll have a play up tomorrow morning, but I’m leaning the same way as you gentlemen.

 

[Chism]

Packers and Bears are always close hard fought games and this could go either way IMO.

I am leaning on the Packers only because they are at home and will be up for 3 losses in a row at Lambeau ( going back to last year ) if they drop this game and i see Rodgers getting them home in a hard fought encounter.

Packers 28-27 with a late field goal!

No confidence at all though and the Bears are BIG shows tomorrow. Great game and wish i could watch it but work has stopped that.

 

[Pweter]

Damn line shifted to 5.5, wish I got on the 6.5 yesterday.

Thinking about this more I reckon Green Bay will want to make a statement on defence after giving up 30 points last week against what is a very good San Francisco team. 51.5 points is a lot in a game where I see one team having a strong defensive focus for years and another that will be wanting to make a defensive statement after last week.

For me, 1u Bears +5.5 & u51.5

Hope that bloody point difference from yesterday isn't the difference between winning and losing today.

 

[DonAce]

3 for me today.

YTD 6-8-0 -7.6 units

3U Chicago +5 @2.00 (Betstar $2.00 power lines)
3U Marshall o89.5 yards @1.74 (Bet365)
3U o50.5 @1.90 @1.90 (Bet365)

GL and go Bears!

 

[Pweter]

Only getting updates on the web but not looking good at all on the line side of things, the under is more encouraging but I need them both, not 1 or the other.

GB having 7+ minutes more time in possession is not a good sign, and I notice the only time the Bears have had reasonable field position they give away a 15 yard penalty then Cutler gets sacked for a further loss of 7 yards.

 

[Pweter]

If you took the Packers line Chism then I tip my hat.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and I am wondering whether I got caught up in the Bears offensive effort vs the Colts who, whilst having a likely looking rookie QB, will struggle to win more than 3 or so games.

At least i got the defensive side of things right, but a complete misread on the Bears offence. Would be happy to hear feedback from anyone that watched the game with respect to how the Bears offence functioned vs how the Packers defence performed. I won't get the chance to see a replay.

 

[balmainforever]

Packers double teamed Marshall all game.
Forte got injured in the second quarter and was not seen again after that.
Clay Matthews was a beast with 3.5 sacks.
In the end Cutler was forcing passes. 4 INTs and it could've been more.

 

[Pweter]

Packers double teamed Marshall all game.
Forte got injured in the second quarter and was not seen again after that.
Clay Matthews was a beast with 3.5 sacks.
In the end Cutler was forcing passes. 4 INTs and it could've been more.

Thanks mate, appreciate it.

Sounds like the Packers certainly had thier pride pricked and came to play. In your opinion was the Packers defence that good or the Bears offence firstly outplayed then undermanned once Forte went down? I only ask as stats have you believe the Bears offence worked better (or at least gained more yards) in the 2nd half than the 1st.

 

[balmainforever]

Thanks mate, appreciate it.

Sounds like the Packers certainly had thier pride pricked and came to play. In your opinion was the Packers defence that good or the Bears offence firstly outplayed then undermanned once Forte went down? I only ask as stats have you believe the Bears offence worked better (or at least gained more yards) in the 2nd half than the 1st.

My view may be through cheese coloured glasses but the beats o-line looked shot in the first half. After Cutler started to get frustrated with it, (and that was shown on the tv coverage) he started to force passes. Made the bears one dimensional. You're always going to get yards in that situation. But the turnovers will also come. I think that we were handling Forte okay and then Bush.

 

[bennyboy11223]

Dallas -3.5 @$2.10 (Tab)
Thank You

 

[KP78]

If you took the Packers line Chism then I tip my hat.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and I am wondering whether I got caught up in the Bears offensive effort vs the Colts who, whilst having a likely looking rookie QB, will struggle to win more than 3 or so games.

At least i got the defensive side of things right, but a complete misread on the Bears offence. Would be happy to hear feedback from anyone that watched the game with respect to how the Bears offence functioned vs how the Packers defence performed. I won't get the chance to see a replay.

Bears offence was average but Cutler actually got decent protection. He had 3-4 seconds min on most plays, but with the downfield targets well covered he just got stuck holding it until the pressure was too much. Packers D looked great in the backfield, and decent pressure applied to the QB, great combo. Cutler had a couple of situations where passes were dropped, or receivers didn't come back at the ball that cost him dearly. (having said that, he threw like crap, forcing passes that weren't there)

 

[Chism]

Dallas -3.5 @$2.10 (Tab)
Thank You

Be careful!!

The Seahawks are a 2TD better team at home and Dallas may be missing DeMarcus Ware which is a HUGE loss on defense IF he does not play. While we should win i am not as confident IF Ware misses and it will be no walk over.

 

[RequiemBlade]

I'd actually pick Seattle if I had to. As Chism said, they're a much better team at home. Also think the market is overreacting with the Redskins -3.5 favourites against St.Louis. While I'd pick the Rams for value (if it reaches -4 or -4.5 I'd jump on) I think RG3 is still an enigma and will sit back and watch. I'm liking Jacksonville getting a touchdown against Houston. While Houston won by 20 points against Miami they weren't really all that impressive. Blaine Gabbert looked greatly improved and the under might be a play as well, with MJD and Foster/Tate possibly getting a lot of carries.

Thoughts on the point total for the ATL/DEN game being so high at 51? Atlanta piled on the points against the Chiefs who were missing several players on defence and Denver poured on 31 against an aging Steelers group. Personally I think this is a bit too high and I'm not sure if Denver will want to get into a shootout with Atlanta given the venue and the Falcon's weapons but I'm not really confident enough to bet on it.

 

[Nelso]

Giants -7
Niners -6.5
Cowgirls to win
Raiders/Fins over 38.5
Ravens to win
Vikings to win

 

[Pweter]

No real time for comments but have the below locked in

Panthers +3, .5U
Chargers -7, 1U
49ers -7, 1U